Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Ms. Marvel]

WW Z doesn't get CLOSE to the amount of hype MOS does.
I think MOS will be very popular with young males especially (they seem the most excited from what I see/hear).

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I now think it will outdo TASM in the U.S but overseas, it has no chance IMHO.

Me too, but then it will get more or less the same WW BO as TASM.

 

[Sup3rman81]

i think 325/350 mill overseas.

I can see that Domestic but I think it will do over 400m overseas. It is too anticipated to not be a BO smash.

 

[JOE]

With all the advertising I've been seeing lately I'm almost starting to change my mind about the domestic BO. I initially thought around 150-200M, but I'm not sure of that anymore. I think this movie has the potential to reach between 250-300M domestic along with bringing in at least 300-400M overseas depending on how well the other side of the world responds to it. This movie could general a solid 700M WW +.

 

[Tobias]

The thing re: MOS vs PR that I don't get is besides getting the better release date PR is apparently being promoted a lot OS and MOS is not.

I get they want to make PR a franchise but with MOS you get the potential of multiple franchises with the DCU.

PR seems to be getting the special treatment with potentially just 1 franchise as opposed to what, 3 or 4 with MOS.

Can't figure out WB's thinking on this.

 

[Sup3rman81]

Anyone who thinks this movie would only do 150-200 Domestic is seriously wrong. SR did 200m Domestic and it was a crap fest. MOS is a huge blockbuster filled with a great cast. if MOS doesnt do at least 300m domestic I will be shocked. But I laugh at thinking this movie would only do 150-200m

 

[Sup3rman81]

The thing re: MOS vs PR that I don't get is besides getting the better release date PR is apparently being promoted a lot OS and MOS is not.

I get they want to make PR a franchise but with MOS you get the potential of multiple franchises with the DCU.

PR seems to be getting the special treatment with potentially just 1 franchise as opposed to what, 3 or 4 with MOS.

Can't figure out WB's thinking on this.

who from WB has confirmed they arent promoting MOS OS?? Besides a handful of people who claim they arent seeing any posters or tv spots. Who from movie chains and other retailers are saying "Nope no MOS promtion going on here"?? I seriously doubt that WB would not spend money on marketing all around the world. MOS doesnt need as much marketing as PR. PR is a new and unknown franchise. MOS has Snyder and Nolans name on it. Nolan alone is enough marketing. WB has been making movies before any of us were born, I am sure they know what they are doing.

 

[Tobias]

With all the advertising I've been seeing lately I'm almost starting to change my mind about the domestic BO. I initially thought around 150-200M, but I'm not sure of that anymore. I think this movie has the potential to reach between 250-300M domestic along with bringing in at least 300-400M overseas depending on how well the other side of the world responds to it. This movie could general a solid 700M WW +.

I am curious why you feel it still could do 150 - 200 million. Though you are starting to maybe change your mind.

In adjusted dollars SR would make 240 million today and GL about 150 million. That would mean MOS doing worse than SR and, at worst, about like GL.

What is it that makes you see those numbers?

Fan sites always overstate the box, well IM3 and Avengers proved exceptions to that rule. But otherwise it holds.

Even on the general, non-fan movie sites a lot are expecting MOS to do 250 million.

Again, curious to what is driving your low prediction.

BTW if you revise itup to 250 plus I think you will be in the ballpark.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I am curious why you feel it still could do 150 - 200 million. Though you are starting to maybe change your mind.

In adjusted dollars SR would make 240 million today and GL about 150 million. That would mean MOS doing worse than SR and, at worst, about like GL.

What is it that makes you see those numbers?

Fan sites always overstate the box, well IM3 and Avengers proved exceptions to that rule. But otherwise it holds.

Even on the general, non-fan movie sites a lot are expecting MOS to do 250 million.

Again, curious to what is driving your low prediction.

BTW if you revise itup to 250 plus I think you will be in the ballpark.

Dude you're the one that said its only going to make $550 million, so why are you surprised at people's low prediction? Their prediction is still way higher than yours.

 

[JOE]

I am curious why you feel it still could do 150 - 200 million. Though you are starting to maybe change your mind.

In adjusted dollars SR would make 240 million today and GL about 150 million. That would mean MOS doing worse than SR and, at worst, about like GL.

What is it that makes you see those numbers?

Fan sites always overstate the box, well IM3 and Avengers proved exceptions to that rule. But otherwise it holds.

Even on the general, non-fan movie sites a lot are expecting MOS to do 250 million.

Again, curious to what is driving your low prediction.

BTW if you revise itup to 250 plus I think you will be in the ballpark.

I'll give you a few examples. First one being "This Is the End". Won't be huge at the BO, but it takes enough teenagers (14-20 yo) out of a MOS seat on opening weekend. Small, but it's a dent.

Second would be World War Z. No matter how good MOS ends up being, there are going to be a ton of females dragging their boyfriends into it just to see Brad Pitt. Not to mention the increasing popularity of the entire post-appocolyptic world movie genre.

Third and probably the heaviest hitter will be Monsters University. This movie is going to reel in every single kid in America due to the brilliance of it's first movie. Whenever you're dealing with a superhero movie, you can always count on kids seeing it. However, with Monsters University coming out 4 days later... It's going to take a hit.

Throw in piracy, people being pissed off with the last Superman, the anti-Snyder people... There's more than a couple things going against it.

Reason I changed my mind is because of the advertising. WB did a phenomenal job with the TV spots. The anticipation is growing, quickly.

 

[Tobias]

I'll give you a few examples. First one being "This Is the End". Won't be huge at the BO, but it takes enough teenagers (14-20 yo) out of a MOS seat on opening weekend. Small, but it's a dent.

Second would be World War Z. No matter how good MOS ends up being, there are going to be a ton of females dragging their boyfriends into it just to see Brad Pitt. Not to mention the increasing popularity of the entire post-appocolyptic world movie genre.

Third and probably the heaviest hitter will be Monsters University. This movie is going to reel in every single kid in America due to the brilliance of it's first movie. Whenever you're dealing with a superhero movie, you can always count on kids seeing it. However, with Monsters University coming out 4 days later... It's going to take a hit.

Throw in piracy, people being pissed off with the last Superman, the anti-Snyder people... There's more than a couple things going against it.

Reason I changed my mind is because of the advertising. WB did a phenomenal job with the TV spots. The anticipation is growing, quickly.

Good points. I think MU will really hurt MOS over the weeks they go head to head. Dumb scheduling by WB. MOS should have gotten the July shot. How much MU takes away from MOS is a guess but it could add up to big numbers as they will be going head-to-head for their runs.

SR will hold OW down IMO to under 100 million but once WOM gets out those who didn't see it because of SR (I know quite a few of these) will I think end up going to see it. Immediate opening weekend impact but minimal long-term from SR as I see it.

I think 250 is a safe bet and if the action is good as it looks I can see 260, 270 and maybe 280 domestic.

 

[db85usa]

So far this year, the box office has been sort of stagnant. I feel with MoS being released it will be the must see movie of the year. Therefore I expect at least $500 Million foreign but I wholeheartedly believe it will do something like this:

$415 Mil Domestic
$640 Mil Foreign

A lot is riding on this film people. Some of you are afraid to realize it. This will crush TASM and become the biggest reboot film ever. By the end of its run, I expect it to be in the top 10 domestic and top 10 worldwide.

 

[Tobias]

So far this year, the box office has been sort of stagnant. I feel with MoS being released it will be the must see movie of the year. Therefore I expect at least $500 Million foreign but I wholeheartedly believe it will do something like this:

$415 Mil Domestic
$640 Mil Foreign

A lot is riding on this film people. Some of you are afraid to realize it. This will crush TASM and become the biggest reboot film ever. By the end of its run, I expect it to be in the top 10 domestic and top 10 worldwide.

You said in a post you have contacts in the business. Any idea why WB basically set MOS to go head-to-head all summer with MU which strikes right at the core of the MOS demo. Plus battling hot Brad Pitt though that may not be as much a factor.

A lot is riding on it yes and that is why some of us find the scheduling odd and too the apparent promotion of PR OS but not so much MOS. That is what almost all the OS posters here are saying so three must be something to it. It's like with so much riding on it WB should be going balls to the balls promoting it OS.

Ideas? WB is confident but I hope they are not being too confident and skipping on promotion because they are so sure. Nothing is a given in this world.

 

[db85usa]

In other words, it'll be this year's Skyfall

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I don't think MU will be a problem.

 

[db85usa]

You said in a post you have contacts in the business. Any idea why WB basically set MOS to go head-to-head all summer with MU which strikes right at the core of the MOS demo. Plus battling hot Brad Pitt though that may not be as much a factor.

A lot is riding on it yes and that is why I find the scheduling odd and too the apparent promotion of PR OS but not so much MOS. That is what almost all the OS posters here are saying so three must be something to it.

Ideas? WB is confident but I hope they are not being too confident and skipping on promotion because they are so sure. Nothing is a given in this world.

MU is going head to head with MoS. MoS had this date scheduled for a long time. I think MU opens to $75-$85 Million so yes, it'll hurt MoS 2nd weekend but not by much. If MoS opens to say, $140 Million, and has good WOM, it could face a 45-48% drop. With a large OW, that would be a huge win. World War Z looks slated for a $45-$55 Million opener although if it has poor reviews, it'll open to much less than that. Obviously if I had to choose a box office king for this summer, I'm going to go with Man of Steel.

 

[Tobias]

In other words, it'll be this year's Skyfall

I read your post where you said WB is expecting TDK numbers and OW. Close anyway.

But that was a totally different situation building off BB and it's huge DVD sales. Then you had the Leger death. That stuff is not being duplicated with MOS.

Hope your contacts were chatting you up a bit as opposed to being totally serious. I feel much more comfortable with WB looking at 600 million as a success and doing JL than expecting 800 or more million for them to consider it a success.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

MU is going head to head with MoS. MoS had this date scheduled for a long time. I think MU opens to $75-$85 Million so yes, it'll hurt MoS 2nd weekend but not by much. If MoS opens to say, $140 Million, and has good WOM, it could face a 45-48% drop. With a large OW, that would be a huge win. World War Z looks slated for a $45-$55 Million opener although if it has poor reviews, it'll open to much less than that. Obviously if I had to choose a box office king for this summer, I'm going to go with Man of Steel.

My friend is planning to watch MOS and MU but not any of the other movies coming out. I never put animated movies and live action movies against each other, both movies are going to do well.

MU and MOS occupy different erm...niches.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I read your post where you said WB is expecting TDK numbers and OW. Close anyway.

But that was a totally different situation building off BB and it's huge DVD sales. Then you had the Leger death. That stuff is not being duplicated with MOS.

Hope your contacts were chatting you up a bit as opposed to being totally serious. I feel much more comfortable with WB looking at 600 million as a success and doing JL than expecting 800 or more million for them to consider it a success.

$600 million is not a success (IMO). It's just eh.

 

[DorneyDave]

Monsters University will do VERY VERY good business. How much it takes away from MOS remains to be seen, but you can't overlook the fact. Monsters University stuff is everywhere.

 

[robot]

$600 million is not a success (IMO). It's just eh.

It is, financially... Studios consider a film a success if it gets 2x(production budget)... ie, they get their money back... And if it does 550 M, i think we're definitely seeing sequels and JL... If it does 400M and below... you can say goodbye to Superman for the next 20 years... and if it does inbetween, then anything's possible...

But it won't be for most of us fans.. we want the BILLION dollar... (at least I do)... In fact, I secret want it to beat Ironman 3... it's like a competition for us fans...

Monsters University will do VERY VERY good business. How much it takes away from MOS remains to be seen, but you can't overlook the fact. Monsters University stuff is everywhere.

Yes it will... HUGE marketing as well.. and it appeals to kids/families... so, it'll definitely bite a huge chunk out of MOS... If you're a parent with younger kids and you only have time to go out once in June or twice... you'll pick MU over MOS....

 

[Sup3rman81]

I'll give you a few examples. First one being "This Is the End". Won't be huge at the BO, but it takes enough teenagers (14-20 yo) out of a MOS seat on opening weekend. Small, but it's a dent.

Second would be World War Z. No matter how good MOS ends up being, there are going to be a ton of females dragging their boyfriends into it just to see Brad Pitt. Not to mention the increasing popularity of the entire post-appocolyptic world movie genre.

Third and probably the heaviest hitter will be Monsters University. This movie is going to reel in every single kid in America due to the brilliance of it's first movie. Whenever you're dealing with a superhero movie, you can always count on kids seeing it. However, with Monsters University coming out 4 days later... It's going to take a hit.

Throw in piracy, people being pissed off with the last Superman, the anti-Snyder people... There's more than a couple things going against it.

Reason I changed my mind is because of the advertising. WB did a phenomenal job with the TV spots. The anticipation is growing, quickly.

First off This is the end is rated R so there should not be any 14-17 year old at the movie. Also no one is anticipating TITE. TITE also opens on a Wednesday so anyone going to see it will probably have seen it Friday. MOS on the other hand has more anticipation than any movie in recent years. SR is not going to keep people from seeing this movie. MU comes out a week later and even though it might win the weekend WOM for MOS will keep it in 2nd. WWZ is not going to attract girls to see Hot Brad, LMAO!! Dude is in his 40s and isn't attracting teenage girls anymore. Zombie movies are played out.

 

[fake]

Man of Steel got its China release date today, it will replace "Fast and Furious 6" as the Hollywood release on 6/20.

Other China release dates announced today:

MoS 6.20
After Earth 7.12
White House Down 7.22
Pacific Rim 7.31
FF6 7.26
Jurrasic Park 8.20

 

[Autonet]

I agree, TITE and WWZ are way low on the "hype o' meter." No GF is going to drag someone to WWZ just because it has Brad Pitt in it. I'm sure they'd rather drag them to see Cavill. I don't think anyone I know says he's not hot.

 

[Sup3rman81]

It is, financially... Studios consider a film a success if it gets 2x(production budget)... ie, they get their money back... And if it does 550 M, i think we're definitely seeing sequels and JL... If it does 400M and below... you can say goodbye to Superman for the next 20 years... and if it does inbetween, then anything's possible...

But it won't be for most of us fans.. we want the BILLION dollar... (at least I do)... In fact, I secret want it to beat Ironman 3... it's like a competition for us fans...



Yes it will... HUGE marketing as well.. and it appeals to kids/families... so, it'll definitely bite a huge chunk out of MOS... If you're a parent with younger kids and you only have time to go out once in June or twice... you'll pick MU over MOS....

MU is a 12 year old franchise. People who saw it 12 years ago are grown up now. DM2 will be the animation movie of the year. MU has had hardly any promotion at my theaters in TN. Hell took em forever to show a new trailer. It will make 65-75 OW which doesn't make it huge and puts a small dent in MoS of any