Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[snowball41293]

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/342794423156998146

what's Exhibitor Relations' track record on predicting box office?

 

[kendalag]

what's Exhibitor Relations' track record on predicting box office?

I'm not certain what their prediction record is ... but they're the ones who generally release the box office results each week.

 

[Visceral]

This is really the first film to have nolan and 3d both on the trailer....it will be very interesting.

 

[Showtime]

I think we're looking at 85 Million - 95 Million and that is on the conservative side.

 

[BestGirl]

I'm going to say $100 million even.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Not making my final predictions just yet, but I'm saying at least $100 million opening weekend.

 

[moviefan!]

WB estimating OW at 75 million

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/man-steel-box-office-preview-563603

 

[Showtime]

They are purposely lowballing it because their numbers are suggesting 80 Million - 90 Million.

 

[Asgard]

225M to make and 150M to market for a 375M total?

How much money does the movie need to make to make a profit?

Wasnt there a report that stated that WB has already earned some 100M+ even before the movie hits theaters?

 

[psylockolussus]

I think it will get $60 too $90 million in the opening weekend.

 

[Showtime]

 

[TheNextNolan22]

225M to make and 150M to market for a 375M total?

How much money does the movie need to make to make a profit?

Wasnt there a report that stated that WB has already earned some 100M+ even before the movie hits theaters?

Indeed there was. It's already making back it's budget through promotional partners(it's currently doing $170 million as opposed to TDKR's $150 million) and it's already tracking better than almost every big movie released in the summer so far according to Fandango.com presales.

 

[Asgard]

Indeed there was. It's already making back it's budget through promotional partners(it's currently doing $170 million as opposed to TDKR's $150 million) and it's already tracking better than almost every big movie released in the summer so far according to Fandango.com presales.

Wow. So MOS only needs tor recuperate its production costs at this point. Not bad at all.

 

[Showtime]

It doesn't really work that way though. It doesn't "make it's budget" back at this point.

 

[SolarWorlder]

Believe the Hype?

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/06/06/man-of-steel-on-track-for-100m-debut

Now Variety is getting in on this ...

 

[Bruce Malone]

WB estimating OW at 75 million

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/man-steel-box-office-preview-563603

If WB are publicly estimating at $75m they are privately hoping for at least $85m.

I think they've learned from paramount to lead with an under-estimate as opposed to a possible over-estimate.

 

[db85usa]

$75 Million is a safe bet for a reboot. They're being modest so they can cheer about it when they hear MoS grosses $125 Million during its OW. I'm hearing $100+ million more and more. That's where it gets tricky and really there is no limit at that point. Man of Steel could easily pull off Indy 4 numbers maybe a little bit better

Indy 4:

$100 Mil OW
$317 DOM
$469 Foreign
$786 WW

I firmly believe MoS will get past $800 Million Worldwide by the end of its run.

 

[Gabe99]

Variety:
‘Man of Steel’ Early Tracking Suggests $100 Million Debut

How high will Superman fly at the box office? According to sources, “Man of Steel” is gearing up for a $100 million debut at the U.S. box office.

Early buzz on the film has been strong and Warner Bros. has been emptying the tank on its marketing campaign for Zack Snyder’s $225 million blockbuster.

Audiences will have to wait until Monday, June 10, to find out just how good, when the film’s review embargo lifts at 8:00 p.m. PT, the same night as the film’s world premiere in New York.

MAN OF STEEL Opening Weekend Estimated At $100M

According to the Hollywood trade publication Variety, the Superman reboot from Zack Snyder, Henry Cavill, David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan and co. is currently tracking for an estimated $100M opening weekend. The trade has solicited box office expectations from various Warner Bros. executives who predict that Man of Steel will earn $300M over the course of its entire domestic run. These days, the rule of thumb for successful summer blockbusters is that international earnings will be 2x the domestic run. Doing a little math, that means Warner Bros. is hoping for a $900M box office haul for the $225 million Man of Steel.

THR:
Warner Bros.' 'Man of Steel' Nabs $170 Million in Promotional Dollars
The Superman reboot has 98 partners -- more than "The Dark Knight Rises" -- with Sears playing a "dramatic role" in the film, plus action figures (Mattel), razor blades (Gillette), cars (Chrysler), shoes (Converse) and even the National Guard.

THR:
'Man of Steel' Tracking Strong, But How Strong?

With one week left to go before Zack Snyder's Man of Steel opens in theaters, box office observers are divided as to how high the Superman reboot will soar in its North American debut.

Trying to manage expectations, Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures are suggesting a domestic debut of $75 million-plus -- at least publicly.

Internally, a number in the $85 million to $90 million range is being thrown about as the studio looks to resurrect the marquee superhero franchise. Produced by Christopher Nolan, the $225 million tentpole headlines British actor Henry Cavill as the caped crusader.

Several of Warner's rivals believe Man of Steel has a strong shot at opening to $100 million or more over the June 14-16 weekend, considering it is pacing ahead of Fast & Furious 6, which earned $97.4 million in its first three days. And on Wednesday, June 6, online ticketing service Fandango reported that Man of Steel was outpacing all previous 2013 summer films in terms of advance ticket sales.

But others don't agree, saying that Fast & Furious 6 had the advantage of opening over Memorial Day weekend (it earned $117 million for the four-day holiday weekend). Also, Superman has been away from the multiplex. It's been seven years since Bryan Singer's Superman Returns, starring Brandon Routh, failed to hit the restart button.

 

[db85usa]

Variety:
‘Man of Steel’ Early Tracking Suggests $100 Million Debut



MAN OF STEEL Opening Weekend Estimated At $100M


THR:
Warner Bros.' 'Man of Steel' Nabs $170 Million in Promotional Dollars
The Superman reboot has 98 partners -- more than "The Dark Knight Rises" -- with Sears playing a "dramatic role" in the film, plus action figures (Mattel), razor blades (Gillette), cars (Chrysler), shoes (Converse) and even the National Guard.

THR:
'Man of Steel' Tracking Strong, But How Strong?

Fandango sales are misleading. TDKR was selling big time through fandango as opposed to The Avengers last year. It's not really something to take into huge consideration but it is a minor factor nonetheless. I'm still optimistic that this movie can pull off a $130-$150 Million OW. A lot of people will say that it's fan boy talk blah blah blah.

The reality is -- the reviews will be good enough for people to see this in droves. It's summer, school is out. There is no other blockbuster film out there. Families will see this movie for a father's day outing, teens will flock to it because it's Superman and there's nothing better to do the marketing right now is outrageous, it's off the charts and extremely aggressive. Because of 3D and the more available IMAX theaters and given the wide release/amount of theaters altogether -- It's not far fetched to think Man of Steel can open with $130+ Million.

 

[robot]

Fandango sales are misleading. TDKR was selling big time through fandango as opposed to The Avengers last year. It's not really something to take into huge consideration but it is a minor factor nonetheless. I'm still optimistic that this movie can pull off a $130-$150 Million OW. A lot of people will say that it's fan boy talk blah blah blah.

The reality is -- the reviews will be good enough for people to see this in droves. It's summer, school is out. There is no other blockbuster film out there. Families will see this movie for a father's day outing, teens will flock to it because it's Superman and there's nothing better to do the marketing right now is outrageous, it's off the charts and extremely aggressive. Because of 3D and the more available IMAX theaters and given the wide release/amount of theaters altogether -- It's not far fetched to think Man of Steel can open with $130+ Million.

I am gonna up your stake to 150+

 

[db85usa]

I am gonna up your stake to 150+

Might as well. Maybe WB will compensate me for predicting Man of Steel will open with $130-$150 Million? Hey, I think I'd deserve at least a million dollars. I am sticking with that prediction and the people who want to shoot me down for it, go right ahead because this film is going to surprise everybody IMO.

 

[robot]

Might as well. Maybe WB will compensate me for predicting Man of Steel will open with $130-$150 Million? Hey, I think I'd deserve at least a million dollars. I am sticking with that prediction and the people who want to shoot me down for it, go right ahead because this film is going to surprise everybody IMO.

t: heheheeee... The naysayers will have to eat their respective hats!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

115 M OW

The WOM is going to spread like wildfire which means tiny drops on Saturday and Sunday.

The midnight show is pulling in at least 10 m and Friday will be at least another 35 m. Then 40 m for Saturday and 30 m for Sunday.

No way this opens less that Fast and Furious 6 (97 m). Alot of people who like Avengers, TDKR and IM3 are very open to Superman.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Anything $80M and up is a win. My instinct is it will over-perform. $125M.

 

[sf2]

Numbers easily pick fr sky.