Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]458509[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]456329[/split]

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Inb4 close.

 

[db85usa]

HSX has MoS opening just slightly under $120 Million but a DOM of $300 Million I think that DOM figure would be higher with that kind of opening. I don't expect massive drops if the movie has solid reviews. If anything, many are saying this film will have serious legs in its entire run.

Who knows, it could open small but have a long run in the BO resulting in a high domestic gross and this should reflect into a higher than expected foreign intake. My feeling and prediction is it will open higher than the studio estimates and rival companies are saying $100 million for an OW. I think everyone will be way off and it will open higher than $100 million. I'm still set on anywhere between $130-$150 million for the OW. Even if it grosses $115-$120 million during the OW, I would say that is a huge, huge win for Man of Steel. It should get to $300 million DOM fairly quickly.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A 120mil opening with good word of mouth should yield a 330-360mil gross IMHO.

 

[dnno1]

The latest from THR is that the studio is publicly predicting $75 million as a conservative estimate, but internally the are expecting $85-$90 million on opening weekend (of course rivals of the WB -- Universal, Marvel, et. al -- are guesstimating a $100 million BO based on advance ticket sales, which are pacing ahead of "Fast and the Furious 6"). If you really want to prove the studio wrong, go see the movie opening weekend instead of watching a pirate copy online. Screw The Pirate Bay.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The studio always lowballs so of course that 75mil is bunk. I don't think it's doing under 90mil, I could see it not quite getting 100mil but I would be a little surprised if it opened under 90mil. 85mil would be fine though especially in mid June.

 

[Bran-El]

Checking the news online, I see the press is really bringing the BO expectation level higher. Hopefully MOS will measure up to the estimated numbers. I have confidence it will do really well Father's Day weekend.

 

[dnno1]

What could hurt the film (purely my opinion though) is the early screenings from the WalMart promotion. Opens the door to pirates who can get illegal copies of the film onto the streets a day earlier. I don't know how they are handling security on that night, but I certainly hope it is the same as it was for the pre-screnings.

 

[Bran-El]

Yeah that and Monster's University in the second week.

 

[dnno1]

Checking the news online, I see the press is really bringing the BO expectation level higher. Hopefully MOS will measure up to the estimated numbers. I have confidence it will do really well Father's Day weekend.

Now asside from what I said and irrespective of what happens opening, week Jeff Robinov predicts that "Man of Steel" will be Warner Bros. best film yet. According to Variety that would mean that the expectation is that it would out perform films like “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″, "The Dark Knight", and "The Dark Knight Rises", which all made over $1 billion (the Harry Potter film was the highest at $1.3 billion).

 

[Autonet]

I think it'll be hard pressed to beat Harry Potter.

 

[Liam_H]

Like any movie not named Avengers.

 

[dnno1]

I think it'll be hard pressed to beat Harry Potter.

I don't know. There are a lot of Superman Fans out there be it of the comics, TV series, or film franchise. The expectation should be there that in this day and age (almost 3 years after the end of the Harry Potter film franchise) that a film like "Man of Steel" could out sell it. The franchise has the potential to be one of the top grossing films of any given year (as proven with SM and SM2). Let's just all hope it ends up beating out "Iron Man 3" which may or may not be an easier task.

 

[Iceman]

Now asside from what I said and irrespective of what happens opening, week Jeff Robinov predicts that "Man of Steel" will be Warner Bros. best film yet. According to Variety that would mean that the expectation is that it would out perform films like “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″, "The Dark Knight", and "The Dark Knight Rises", which all made over $1 billion (the Harry Potter film was the highest at $1.3 billion).

For some reason I can't open the link so I'm answering blind. But those films you/they mention are all sequels following strong earlier entries. As a comparison I don't think Batman Begins had a chance of doing huge numbers despite being really good and even if it had been WB's best film as it was following B&R. TDK was much better positioned to take advantage coming after a respected Batman film but I don't think it would have been as successful had it been in Begins' place. Conversely Rises was guaranted at least a half decent return thanks to the goodwill from TDK. So I guess my point is that how good MoS is is not the only factor required to push it to mega money. It will be hard pushed to reach $1B no matter how good it is (although I'm not ruling it out) ..even if it is WB's best. But I do think if it lives up to expectations it will push the sequels over $1B even if they aren't as good.

 

[dnno1]

For some reason I can't open the link so I'm answering blind. But those films you/they mention are all sequels following strong earlier entries. As a comparison I don't think Batman Begins had a chance of doing huge numbers despite being really good and even if it had been WB's best film as it was following B&R. TDK was much better positioned to take advantage coming after a respected Batman film but I don't think it would have been as successful had it been in Begins' place. Conversely Rises was guaranted at least a half decent return thanks to the goodwill from TDK. So I guess my point is that how good MoS is is not the only factor required to push it to mega money. It will be hard pushed to reach $1B no matter how good it is (although I'm not ruling it out) ..even if it is WB's best. But I do think if it lives up to expectations it will push the sequels over $1B even if they aren't as good.

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/w...-priciest-incarnation-of-superman-1200493334/

The article says that Jeff Robinof, WB Pictures group President, went as far as to predict that the film will be the studio's highest performer. That means in spite of the fact that the films I mentioned were sequels, the expectation is that it will top them. It would have to to be the top performer.

 

[Liam_H]

Talk about setting your own self up for disappointment.

 

[Iceman]

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/w...-priciest-incarnation-of-superman-1200493334/

The article says that Jeff Robinof, WB Pictures group President, went as far as to predict that the film will be the studio's highest performer. That means in spite of the fact that the films I mentioned were sequels, the expectation is that it will top them. It would have to to be the top performer.

Thanks, that works. Wow, I can’t believe how optimistic he is!! It’s a great sign to how good this film is for him to say that stuff. Gives me more confidence about the prospects of this series & a proper JL. Well, hope he’s right!

 

[ThePhantasm]

Talk about setting your own self up for disappointment.

Yep.

 

[kendalag]

What could hurt the film (purely my opinion though) is the early screenings from the WalMart promotion. Opens the door to pirates who can get illegal copies of the film onto the streets a day earlier. I don't know how they are handling security on that night, but I certainly hope it is the same as it was for the pre-screnings.

That will be irrelevant ... the midnight showings star less 2 1/2 hours after the Walmart showings end ... it's really no different than any other previews film (Iron Man, Star Trek 2)

 

[dnno1]

Talk about setting your own self up for disappointment.

Yep.

He did raise the bar very high for this film, but it's not totally impossible to do. I will tell you this, though, if it does succeed in making that much money I am beginning to doubt that anyone involved with the project would want anything to do with Superman teaming up with other franchises. They won't want to jeopardize that success.

 

[Iceman]

I'd love to know what one or 2 of his colleagues think of his opinion. It's one of those comments where he could easily end up looking very silly & never being taken seriously again on box office matters. Certainly doesn't fit with studio opening weekend estimates.

 

[dnno1]

That will be irrelevant ... the midnight showings star less 2 1/2 hours after the Walmart showings end ... it's really no different than any other previews film (Iron Man, Star Trek 2)

Actually the WalMart promotion says that the advance screenings start at 7 PM. That 's 5 hours before the midnight screenings start and, depending on what time zone you are in it could be up to 13 hours (if you live in Hawaii). That makes a lot of difference there and is pretty relevant.

 

[Iceman]

He did raise the bar very high for this film, but it's not totally impossible to do. I will tell you this, though, if it does succeed in making that much money I am beginning to doubt that anyone involved with the project would want anything to do with Superman teaming up with other franchises. They won't want to jeopardize that success.

But what if Snyder is the guy directing JL?

 

[dnno1]

I'd love to know what one or 2 of his colleagues think of his opinion. It's one of those comments where he could easily end up looking very silly & never being taken seriously again on box office matters. Certainly doesn't fit with studio opening weekend estimates.

He'll give the same response he does to about 90% of the films he misses on each year. It was because of either the critics or the weather or some nut who caused a national scene that took away from the film or something like that.