Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Kryptonian Warrior]

So, two times that night... and one time the next night? Jesus, three viewings in 2 days.

Yep, that's EXACTLY what I'm planning on doing. I'm buying my IMAX 3D ticket right before I go into the 7:30 showing Thursday night. Luckily I'm seeing the movie in the same complex that has the IMAX theater. So I'll have a couple of hours before the midnight showing to relax for a little bit and go hop in line. Speaking of IMAX, do any of you know if there has been any word of an IMAX exclusive midnight release poster? Kind of like what they did for The Avengers?

 

[dnno1]

I don't think any great solo superhero has a top level as high as a great team of superheroes has, especially overseas. I don't think any Iron Man film for eg could dream about making IM3 money without having had a link to Avengers. Put a Cavill Superman into a JL film with a Bale level Batman and the other main members done justice woot and that can make more than whatever MoS makes. And all the members of that team could see a big boost to their own franchise.

It's so much easier to create true event film status with a bunch of superheroes. Avengers 2 could be on for $2B and there's no reason why a good JL film can't achieve anything that an Avengers film can. And the other thing Superman himself would be the lead in a JL film & thereby benefit even more so as long as WB was confident they could make a good enough JL film then I'm quite sure this would be their intention (whatever figure MoS comes up with).

Actually, irrespective of Marvel's Avengers, "Iron Man 3" more than likely would have made as much as it did since it was a sequel (the third in a trilogy) and the previous films made progressively more than their predecessors. Furthermore, it was the performance of Robert Downey, Jr. that made both Marvel's "Avengers" and the Iron Man films so successful. He is a true A-List actor and commands a lot of money at the box office. It is not that much a matter of putting together a great team of superheros, but more so a great screenplay and the chemistry of the team of actors (the early Star Wars films outside of Alec Guinness had a cast that was made up of a bunch of unknowns but yet was still had a series of top grossing films). As far as a solo superhero film doing better than a great team film, I honestly believe that "The Dark Knight Rises" would have matched the success of Marvel's "Avengers" had there not been that incident in Denver. To sum it up I don't' think what you say is all together true.

 

[JOE]

This OW is going to be a hit or miss. If it hits, it'll get close to 100M. If it misses, this movie might land in the 60M range.

 

[robot]

Just bought my IMAX ticket today... already all the good seats are taken... this Movie is opening HUGE! If it's good, it'll have legs and beat all expectations...

Oh, also watched After Earth today... it's definitely not a threat at all to MOS... I almost fell asleep several times... I think this is the end of M. Night's career... or, at least stop trying to make big blockbusters, fantasy, sci-fi, or anything with special effects/cgi..... maybe stay with the 'suspense, mystery' type movies.. that's where he excels...

 

[JOE]

Too bad, from the trailers After Earth put out I really liked the concept. I'm a huge fan of survival movies and the abandoned planet Earth thing got me going. Shame, even with huge actors it still did terrible.

 

[Ugly Casanova]

Oh, also watched After Earth today... it's definitely not a threat at all to MOS... I almost fell asleep several times... I think this is the end of M. Night's career... or, at least stop trying to make big blockbusters, fantasy, sci-fi, or anything with special effects/cgi..... maybe stay with the 'suspense, mystery' type movies.. that's where he excels...

Totally agree. M. Night should stick to smaller suspense films. We have Zack Snyder and many others for big fun cgi movies. Shyamalan should work on stuff he's good at and passionate about. After Earth was this bizarre, passionless movie. Love or hate Shyamalan's movies, they've never been insincere. They're full of heart, for better or worse. After Earth was just empty. It's like his spirit is broken. He needs to find himself again.

I've been reading this thread alot because I love Superman so much, I want this film to be huge and spawn all the solo films and JLA -- I'm sure we all want that -- and it seems the final box office will depend on one thing and one thing only:

How good the movie actually is.

And that's not something we'll know until we see it. My prediction is the movie will be good and open big, but you never know. We've been burned time and time again by big movies. We just have to wait and see. But we're only ONE WEEK AWAY!

 

[terry78]

Will Smith will be fine though, he's a box office draw but this was more his kid's movie. M. Night is the one that suffers if anyone.

 

[robot]

Too bad, from the trailers After Earth put out I really liked the concept. I'm a huge fan of survival movies and the abandoned planet Earth thing got me going. Shame, even with huge actors it still did terrible.

It really is an empty movie... Terrible plot (actually non-existent), terrible CGI, terrible acting (I think in this case, both will and son), and Will didn't even have much part to play... this looks like he was just trying to push his son to stardom.. or, rush him to stardom promo or something... and apparently will smith wrote it, so he should stick to acting..

Well, if you have seen it, you'll know what i mean...

Totally agree. M. Night should stick to smaller suspense films. We have Zack Snyder and many others for big fun cgi movies. Shyamalan should work on stuff he's good at and passionate about. After Earth was this bizarre, passionless movie. Love or hate Shyamalan's movies, they've never been insincere. They're full of heart, for better or worse. After Earth was just empty. It's like his spirit is broken. He needs to find himself again.

I've been reading this thread alot because I love Superman so much, I want this film to be huge and spawn all the solo films and JLA -- I'm sure we all want that -- and it seems the final box office will depend on one thing and one thing only:

How good the movie actually is.

And that's not something we'll know until we see it. My prediction is the movie will be good and open big, but you never know. We've been burned time and time again by big movies. We just have to wait and see. But we're only ONE WEEK AWAY!

Yeah, fingers crossed... but from initial reaction, we know it's not going to blow our mind, script wise, but will blow our mind, action wise... good enough...

Will Smith will be fine though, he's a box office draw but this was more his kid's movie. M. Night is the one that suffers if anyone.

Yeah, Will didn't do much... Night is saying 'goodnight' to all.. hehe

 

[Notrip]

This OW is going to be a hit or miss. If it hits, it'll get close to 100M. If it misses, this movie might land in the 60M range.

Umm I WOULD BET my house and car that this movie will do more than 60M range. that is an avg. of 20 million per day. so like 24 on Friday, 20 on Saturday, and on Fathers day, in a movie that has a theme towards Two fathers, 16 million. IMHO that Would KILL Superman and all DC projects except Batman. If MOS hits its gonna be 120+, anything around 100 is expected and 80 Million will be the miss IMHO. Just sayin

 

[robot]

This OW is going to be a hit or miss. If it hits, it'll get close to 100M. If it misses, this movie might land in the 60M range.

I'll shave my head and eat my hair if it goes below $60M!!! Write it down...

 

[Marvin]

If only MoS had the 2 weeks free of genre and kids films following it that IM3 had.

 

[terry78]

Yeah, it's not beating Monsters U. come the following weekend. It may be close and in second, but it's not gonna be number 1 twice.

 

[Bran-El]

If only MoS had the 2 weeks free of genre and kids films following it that IM3 had.

World War Z is a threat but it might bomb. Monsters University on the other hand has huge family appeal. Beyond those two I don't see anything touching MOS.

 

[GreenKToo]

@ ThePowerCosmic. yup. if its as good as advertised I will. if not I wont. i've waited a long time for this, so hopfully i'll love it.

 

[dnno1]

Yeah, it's not beating Monsters U. come the following weekend. It may be close and in second, but it's not gonna be number 1 twice.

Box Office Mojo is predicting that "Monsters U" may get a $280 million domestic take, but they do indicate that prequels are inherently unnecessary (people already know that the two main monsters, Harry and Sully, eventually become friends). It could gross more than $100 million on it's opening weekend (topping "Man of Steel" in its second week) but what is real critical here is the actual opening week of "Man of Steel". That will eventually set the pace for what the film will gross at the end of the cycle. If it is going to be the top grossing film of the summer, it has to take in more than $174 million on opening weekend. If it doesn't then I doubt it will even overtake "Iron Man 3" unless it stays in theaters for more than 3 months (which is doubtful).

 

[JOE]

Umm I WOULD BET my house and car that this movie will do more than 60M range. that is an avg. of 20 million per day. so like 24 on Friday, 20 on Saturday, and on Fathers day, in a movie that has a theme towards Two fathers, 16 million. IMHO that Would KILL Superman and all DC projects except Batman. If MOS hits its gonna be 120+, anything around 100 is expected and 80 Million will be the miss IMHO. Just sayin

If you read what I said you'd know the 60M is the prediction upon a miss. A miss being people hating the movie and getting terrible reviews. Don't tell me that if people hate the movie and it gets bad reviews 60M OW isn't a possibility.

 

[JOE]

IM3 had the #1 for more than 1 week in a row. MOS will not with MU coming out shortly after.

 

[robot]

If you read what I said you'd know the 60M is the prediction upon a miss. A miss being people hating the movie and getting terrible reviews. Don't tell me that if people hate the movie and it gets bad reviews 60M OW isn't a possibility.

60M isn't a possibility.. with this much hype, I think the advanced ticket sales would surpass that... so, even if the movie sucked big time, people would have gone to watch it... the theaters at my place is already half booked...

 

[DKDetective]

I'm not sure why he felt the need to publicly announce what is essentially a fantasy hope sentiment at this point? Maybe to appease share holders?

I mean if this film does any less than 1.3 billion now he's going to look foolish

I still think $700m should have been the goal the whole time and i still think this is what the film will make around barring it really exploding. I still have doubts internationally as to what it can do?

If the statement had anything to do with shareholders that is a big no no legally I believe. As an officer of the corporation, Robinov has a legal duty not to make untrue or misleading representations that may affect investors' decisions to buy, sell, retain shares in the corporation or that will affect the price of shares. I believe there are some exceptions to the duty regarding representations where it is mere puffery or just a statement of opinion about speculative performance, but the factual forthrightness of the way he said it could get him in big trouble. However, WB is such a massive corporation that I don't know if angry shareholders could prove that projections regarding a single film's performance would be material or whether MOS's underperformance (in comparison to the unreal expectations) would actual result in a stock drop and thus result in damages/loss. Not that I'm an expert on any of this nor does it constitute legal advice in any way, just academic discussion.

 

[alexnyc]

Guys cmon don't be so negative this movie is gonna do freakin awesome true superman fans believe it's gonna blow the numbers off the charts watch believe it!

 

[Marvin]

Saying a potential MoS sequel passing DH2 is still presumptuous.

Everything said before the numbers come in is a presumption, or rather an assumption. This entire thread is presumptuous.
This entire court is out of order.

How?

Or, to be more frank, No, you are completely wrong. Iron Man 3 has shown that you can surpass all of them if you are the latest entry in an extremely popular series that just had a record-breaking predecessor the prior year. That has literally nothing to say for WB's ability to break records with a reboot of a series that hasn't had a popular entry in decades.

To be clear, we are talking about the MoS sequel here right?
And to be frank, yes.

People are intimidated by the idea that a singular film that isn't some mega Avengers like event can "out earn every WB film ever made". If you look at it objectively, Ironman is a singular film, with a hero a lot less known that Superman. That film has out grossed all WB films in history if not for but one. Now I'm not saying MoS is in any position to out do IM3's totals, that film had a unearned major boost form Joss Whedon and the marvel machine. But the reality is that, that film isn't some big event onto itself. It's just got alot of momentum behind it. People wanted to be a part of the conversation and Marvel even advertised the film with Avengers footage...

Do you honestly think MoS2 won't have massive momentum behind it? Especially when the shameless universe building starts to get rolling. Scenario one, Batman himself shows up in the hotly anticipated sequel(bruce wayne in the trailer). Pretty sure it would have a shot at IM3's title with just that.

All Robinov(or whomever) needed say was something along the lines of: "We have a film here that might be a bigger hit than that (unfriendly to walk in audiences) Harry Potter finale." He may have still been overstating, but given that's what he literally meant, the statement isn't all that hard for me to digest.

WB needs a film that can do Batman numbers domestically and big SkyFall/Inception/HP numbers overseas. A superman franchise with momentum behind it is just the product to do it. It has more of a shot than these Hobbit cash ins.

 

[Mysteryman]

Box Office Mojo is predicting that "Monsters U" may get a $280 million domestic take, but they do indicate that prequels are inherently unnecessary (people already know that the two main monsters, Harry and Sully, eventually become friends). It could gross more than $100 million on it's opening weekend (topping "Man of Steel" in its second week) but what is real critical here is the actual opening week of "Man of Steel". That will eventually set the pace for what the film will gross at the end of the cycle. If it is going to be the top grossing film of the summer, it has to take in more than $174 million on opening weekend. If it doesn't then I doubt it will even overtake "Iron Man 3" unless it stays in theaters for more than 3 months (which is doubtful).

It WONT beat IM3s OW,
And none of the professionals watching box office have predicted that either.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

I'm really curious...are you guys really sure that MU going to kick MOS out of the 1st place on it's second week?

Holiday season, two different target audience and not to mention that MOS feels like an 'event movie', whereas MU feels just like another one Pixar movies

 

[Big McLargehuge]

I'm really curious...are you guys really sure that MU going to kick MOS out of the 1st place on it's second week?

Holiday season, two different target audience and not to mention that MOS feels like an 'event movie', whereas MU feels just like another one Pixar movies

I do. MU is going to be big hit and WWZ's problems don't seem to be affecting its buzz either. Basically, MOS has one shot to make its financial power known. After that, there are too many movies that serve the same audience.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

There is a buzz surrounding MU? i honestly haven't noticed it....

That said, i agree with you that MOS is facing some competitions the coming weeks, but to be only nr 1 for one week? and MU being the movie that knock it off the 1st place?

That's...sounds to pessimistic to me.