Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[db85usa]

Who has the better track record? HSX or MTC?

Ha ha, I would say HSX

 

[FlawlessVictory]

HSX is at $110-$112 million so MTC is not far off. It's anybody's guess right now.

*edit* you should have added that RS is at $140 million! I had to pull up the article myself. Holy moly, what a difference. I can't help but say I am not surprised since I have been saying $130-$150 million OW for about a week now.

That would absolutely be jaw dropping.

 

[Jim-El]

Nah, man. It ain't happening. This film is aimed at a male audience over the age of 12. It won't have everybody bringing their kids to see Superman instead it will be "Will you babysit xxx so we can go see Man of Steel?"

Obviously, I am counting on those kids to show up...
I'm taking my "10" year old nephew...

 

[db85usa]

Obviously, I am counting on those kids to show up...
I'm taking my "10" year old nephew...

Well, I'm just saying -- they should be able to follow most of the plot and they shouldn't get bored with all of the action. If you're one of those parents who shields their kids from any type of violence whatsoever then I highly recommend seeing Man of Steel

 

[Marvin]

Kid's bring their families and don't really have time for critics.

Someone should start up a Kids version of Rotten Tomatoes. So that kids can be told if a other kids think a movie is worth their time.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

repost:

I'm basing this on absolutely nothing, but my guess is that the movie needs to make 700 million for a sequel to be guaranteed, 600 million for it to be probable, and 500 for it to be possible. I consider this to be a conservative (lowball) guess.

I assume everyone knows that the announcement made by WB that a sequel has been green-lit means jack squat at this point. Yes? Ok, good.

 

[Jim-El]

Kid's bring their families and don't really have time for critics.

Someone should start up a Kids version of Rotten Tomatoes. So that kids can be told if a other kids think a movie is worth their time.

^^^^^^^This!

 

[Joeyjojo72]

I agree that the kid factor plus the expanded overseas markets pretty much guarantees a decent (600 million plus) draw at the bo, regardless of the critical response or even so-so word of mouth. Most males between the ages of 5 and 55 are going to want to see this at least once.

 

[db85usa]

Someone should start up a Kids version of Rotten Tomatoes. So that kids can be told if a other kids think a movie is worth their time.

Oh, yeah brilliant idea -- followed by Kids Facebook, Kids Twitter, Kids IMDb.

 

[MrMaooz]

Kid's bring their families and don't really have time for critics.

Someone should start up a Kids version of Rotten Tomatoes. So that kids can be told if a other kids think a movie is worth their time.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Kid's bring their families and don't really have time for critics.

Someone should start up a Kids version of Rotten Tomatoes. So that kids can be told if a other kids think a movie is worth their time.

And will be read by kids. Or adults who acted like kids.

C'mon.

 

[StarLord]

I thought RT was ran by kids?

 

[Showtime]

That would absolutely be jaw dropping.

I am sticking to 85-95 million. I've been talking about it for many moons. It could certainly overperform, which is good and fine.

 

[Snark88]

Wrong thread sorry.

 

[db85usa]

I am sticking to 85-95 million. I've been talking about it for many moons. It could certainly overperform, which is good and fine.

Go up to $100 million. Don't be afraid

 

[chiefchirpa]

$100-110 million. This movie should be having at least #2 OW number this year after IM3.

 

[schiz0id]

Ray Subers (boxofficemojo) is predicting $139m and Gitesh Pandya (boxofficeguru) is predicting $85m.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

[snowball41293]

http://www.boxoffice.com/articles/2013-06-a-final-perspective-on-man-of-steel

There are strong arguments for an opening weekend over $100 million (BoxOffice is officially forecasting $115 million), but perspective should be kept.

First and foremost, the studio itself is expecting a debut in the $80-89 million range. Contrary to growing opinion in certain corners of the Internet (and, by extension, the film industry), that would be anything but a disappointing start for the film. Modest when compared to bigger openers, certainly, but it would set a new standard among the reboot sub-genre as none have ever opened to more than $75.2 million (2009's Star Trek) during a three-day weekend.

Granted, there are asterisks to that fact: Trek didn't have 3D to help boost ticket revenue, and more notably, last year's The Amazing Spider-Man opted for a Tuesday release (drastically deflating it's three-day weekend and inflating it's overall multiplier). Batman Begins similarly debuted on a Wednesday in 2005.

Batman and Trek truly excelled after opening weekend as word of mouth drove them to $205 million and $258 million, respectively. In fact, Trek was also the highest-grossing reboot to-date until Amazing Spider-Man topped it with $262 million last summer. The Abrams re-imagining still holds the title of highest ticket-seller among reboots, though.

Early reports indicate that Zack Snyder's own reboot may be more audience-friendly than critical reviews seem to indicate. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened--see the entire Transformers franchise. Still, that 's something we won't know for sure until a larger portion of the country actually begins to see the film beginning at midnight tonight (or 7pm, for you Wal-Mart ticket-buyers).

For some interesting points of fact, consider that Superman Returns debuted to $66.8 million in its first four days in 2006 (an approximation of what it would have made with a standard weekend opening). Adjusted for inflation, that's comparable to around $80-85 million today with 3D and IMAX surcharges roughly accounted for.

That range is the ultimate litmus test for opening weekend. It would represent, at the very least, Man of Steel having matched or slightly exceeded the upfront audience size of its not-greatly regarded predecessor. There would then still be historical precedents for the movie to be on a path toward becoming the highest-grossing reboot, and possibly the first to cross $300 million should it go on to enjoy longer legs in the spirit of Star Trek or Batman Begins.

[...]

After Sunday, Man of Steel has to live or die by its own qualities in the eyes of general audiences. But going into the first few days of release, let's remember that an opening weekend alone isn't the only barometer for a film's entire box office run.

 

[kedrell]

Agreed. How anyone can label a consensus 7/10 film from audiences and critics, and universally considered improvement over it's predecessor, a vast disappointment is beyond me.

Well that's complete BS.

 

[kedrell]

MTC is tracking MoS opening weekend at 87 million.

About what I expected all along. Always said a $100M OW was the ceiling. Loads of people on here seem to think this movie was the actual sequel to a well received film rather than the one that really needed to prove itself to get the ball rolling.

 

[Hammer!]

You really going to argue that the consensus of IM3 being better than IM2? If so please back it up, I'd love to see it.

 

[sf2]

i thought some said it gonna make 200M OW. c'mon it's father's day!

 

[kedrell]

How big is Game of Thrones? Does it have a massive worldwide audience?

I don't know but after The Sopranos it's well and away HBO's most successful series of all time.

 

[FLICK]

It's already made over 100 million in product placement money tie ins. So even if the movie makes 300 million worldwide it's still a success.

 

[kedrell]

You really going to argue that the consensus of IM3 being better than IM2? If so please back it up, I'd love to see it.

I'm arguing about your point of it being universal. Not even close. More or less they are comparable in terms of how well they were accepted. Both are in the 70's on RT. Neither comes close to the first film.