Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Heretic]

Saw the midnight showing in the fake Imax 3D...3D adds little to nothing of value. I always prefer the larger screen though. If your area has a fake Imax showing without the 3D, go for that.

It was probably about 75% full.

 

[ironman_rick]

MOS should gross at least 100 million this weekend.... No worries about that.


Its next weekend which is the worry. WWZ and MU are gonna take a huge slice of the boxoffice.

 

[db85usa]

MOS should gross at least 100 million this weekend.... No worries about that.


Its next weekend which is the worry. WWZ and MU are gonna take a huge slice of the boxoffice.

It'll gross higher than that because the GA has been holding off on the BO/everything else until MoS. BoxOfficeMojo's prediction is pretty spot on which is sort of in line with what I've been projecting $130-$150 mil OW. It's gonna be fun to see the results! I'm off to bed folks.

 

[kalelvis]

Just watched it twice and it was near capacity in both showings (7pm Walmart, and midnight). The crowds in both cheered at the end with appropriate laughter and reactions throughout. The overall chatter in the lobby sounded pretty positive but i did hear a couple of people talking about how all the reviews they read were correct and it was too much this to little that...but, hey, some people just can't be pleased.

It was awesome! I can't wait to see the morning estimates my gut says in the 150 mil ballpark.

 

[khreysi290]

No official figure from India yet, but this article seems encouraging:
http://www.bollywoodon.com/man-of-steel-opens-very-well-in-india/

 

[DarthSkywalker]

No official figure from India yet, but this article seems encouraging:
http://www.bollywoodon.com/man-of-steel-opens-very-well-in-india/

Come on MoS. After loving you, I now need those good box office numbers to roll in. I really want sequel.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

It will do extremely well ww. Very very good.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm assuming this article has been posted already?

It's about keeping what MOS could do as a reboot in perspective and how an under 100m debut shouldn't necessarily be seen as a disappointment outright. No reboot has ever made more than $75m in its OW or gone over $300m domestically.

http://www.boxoffice.com/articles/2013-06-a-final-perspective-on-man-of-steel

I'm wagering $95m OW myself.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

$127 million. First number that came to me.

Do we win something for getting it right or being the closest?

 

[JOE]

You get to spend a day with Laurence Fishburne... And a night with Montanna

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not going over 75mil with 3D ticket prices would be disappointing but I do think that people should keep their expectations in check. 85-95mil would be good numbers. But a bigger opening does mean that the movie doesn't have to work too hard to get over 250mil domestically, a number I think would be good for a reboot.

 

[redp]

"it[MOS] will have to earn at least $800 million to be considered a hit and to spawn the kind of franchise Warner Bros. is surely hoping for." from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/dorothypomerantz/2013/06/13/why-reviews-matter-for-man-of-steel/ (I hope this wasn't already posted)

 

[sf2]

The critics, the fans, the analysts every tom n dick set a higher bar because he is superman. Damn.

 

[Marvin]

I think once the public discussion get's going, the curiosity will get people to at least want to see what going in in this Nolan branded movie, that guy has a way with word of mouth curiosity. This began with the whole Joker thing. All these mixed reviews might just be driving up the curiosity tbh.

I personally expect high numbers this weekend, but next weekend there is undeniable competition and in order to survive such things good reviews are pretty helpful. In that second week you encounter the people that perhaps weren't going to see it first week no matter what the way we are. These tend to be the people that have their decisions made for/influenced by "critics" and WOM.

With all the numbers guessing there was no accounting for how the critical reception would go.

I'm pretty sure there is a full on young kids fresh out of school and ready for more superheroes post avengers that are eager to see what Superman brings to the table. These kids have no business with the RT score and they are bringing their families. Something tells me they won't be responding the way the critics have to things like narrative structure and how many people are killed in light of the TF/Avengers caliber action finally present in the Superman universe.......These kids have had two weeks of nothing all too interesting to watch and really don't have the option of watching that other raunchy comedy this weekend.... Big numbers are coming.

The second weekend is pretty damn hard to predict.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

^Yup, second week is vital. Perhaps if it has a relatively big OW that could generate enough good buzz and press to get people that were sort of interested, to see it that second weekend.

If it has a big OW, WB has to really publicize that to offset the mixed critical reviews. At least the user reviews on RT are at 82% so far which is just one point lower than IM3. Obviously there is a big disconnect between critics and fans on this one.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

Anyone know when the midnight numbers are supposed to come in?

 

[Notrip]

Yeah, over 20% difference, I think the audience rating will be in the upper 70's, like 77 when it is over. If this movie does over 100M it will be the first reboot comic-book movie to do so. Heck if it grosses over 111 million if will be the best June OW.

 

[Notrip]

Anyone know when the midnight numbers are supposed to come in?

probably in a hour or so, plus it is back to 59 on RT. Could we get a 60 fresh when it is all said and done? Probably about 60 more critics to go. Need about 62% from those critics to get too 60 i believe.

 

[khreysi290]

KOREA OD figures:
Box Office figures for opening day for South Korea is a bit disappointing, opening with US$ 1.22 million. For comparison, Iron Man 3 opened at US$ 3 million on opening day, while The Dark Knight Rises opened at US$ 2.7 million.

Looks like Superman's not getting love from Korea..

Figures so far:
PHILIPPINES: US$ 1.7 million (biggest opening-day ever)
TAIWAN: US$ 794,742 (biggest opening for a WB film)
KOREA: US$ 1.22 million

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm going to be brutally honest, I don't care what the GA likes one way or the other, I just want enough of them to see it so that I can get a sequel. That is it. I don't even care about a 3rd film because those are hardly worth anything, I just want a sequel.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

FRIDAY 7 AM UPDATE: Not even torrential downpours in NYC could dampen enthusiastic crowds forming long lines for Thursday late shows. Warner Bros and Legendary Pictures just announced its hotly anticipated Man Of Steel opened with a midnight show of $9 million. Combined with $12M from a corporate group sale screening program at 7 PM, this third Superman franchise begins its North American run with a cume of $21M. “Off to a flying start!!!” A studio exec gushed to me just now.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/06/man...elease-record-opening-day-in-the-philippines/

 

[Dragon_316ca]

@BoxOffice

NORTH AMERICA: WB reports that MAN OF STEEL already has $21 million in the bank. A very strong start. #ManofSteel

Dammit, FlawlessVictory!


Hooray for the ##'s.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

@BoxOffice
Dammit, FlawlessVictory!


Hooray for the ##'s.

t:

Looking good!

 

[khreysi290]

HOORAY for North America! Woohoo!

U.S. and CANADA: US$ 21 million
PHILIPPINES: US$ 1.7 million (biggest opening-day ever)
TAIWAN: US$ 794,742 (biggest opening for a WB film)
KOREA: US$ 1.22 million

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

June record looking VERY likely!