Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[robot]

This movie is going to make bank that much is certain and the movie should be taken very seriously. Hey, it could possibly make $180 million OW like one review said, lol.

I predicted $150M OW, but secretly hoping it'll surpass 200M, so not surprised...t:

 

[db85usa]

I predicted $150M OW, but secretly hoping it'll surpass 200M, so not surprised...t:

I've been saying $130-$150 Million. It has a very good chance of at least opening higher than say...









Batman Begins

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Monsters U is a nostalgia sequel which means it is also intended for older people who grew up on the original and that poor reviews could be a dealbreaker for many.

Also if reviews are poor it's a sign WOM may not be good in the future which will hurt MU's legs.

 

[robot]

I've been saying $130-$150 Million. It has a very good chance of at least opening higher than say...
Batman Begins

And to think that just a few days back, we who were predicting such numbers were thought 'crazy'... hehe.. let's see who has the last laugh here.. (I don't care, I am counting my chickens now).

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Parents wanting to see a kids movie is actually a major factor.

If a movie looks great parents will anticipate the movie even more than the kids (Toy Story 3).

But if it looks like a waste of money parents will stand firm and refuse to take their family. Especially when a trip to the movies could cost 30-50 bucks.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Monsters U is a nostalgia sequel which means it is also intended for older people who grew up on the original and that poor reviews could be a dealbreaker for many.

Also if reviews are poor it's a sign WOM may not be good in the future which will hurt MU's legs.

A lot of adults see Pixar films, it could gross under 200mil without those people. Cars 2 certainly did. It should get the standard 60ish mil opening but the legs are a questionmark.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm going to stick with 120 m OW for MOS.

I'll be very pleasantly surprised if it exceeds 130 m though.

 

[dnno1]

Read an article by Google that said it can predict box office results (lol) but pretty much says what we already know. To look at how many trailer views a film has and that that is a clear indication of how a film will do.

So, let's rewind a bit. So far we have heard MoS is outpacing all other films of 2013 courtesy of Fandango -- which can be argued by the issues IM3 was having with their sales. Back in April, the MoS trailer #3 topped IM3 on iTunes and became the #1 most viewed trailer.

I'm just not sold that trailer views equate to box office sales. How many of those trailer views did people think negatively afterwards? We can't predict that. Anyway, MoS should still be taken seriously because $130-$150 Million is reachable IMO.

If you go by the likes and dislikes on the YouTube videos of the trailers it ranges anywhere from 1%-5% dislikes (if that will give you an idea). Yeah, Google has a white paper on how they can predict box office, but it's not like you can go and predict it on your own or go to a specific web tool to find out what the box office for a film will be. It sounds like all we really have to go by is what the studio is predicting, which is a $100 million domestic take for the first 72 hours). Let's hope that the foreign box office is just as large.

 

[robot]

If you go by the likes and dislikes on the YouTube videos of the trailers it ranges anywhere from 1%-5% dislikes (if that will give you an idea). Yeah, Google has a white paper on how they can predict box office, but it's not like you can go and predict it on your own or go to a specific web tool to find out what the box office for a film will be. It sounds like all we really have to go by is what the studio is predicting, which is a $100 million domestic take for the first 72 hours). Let's hope that the foreign box office is just as large.

Actually, I don't see why we can't be almost exact in the prediction game as most cinemas in the world now have online ordering system, and their seats being filled up can be consolidated in real time... we can actually see how much $$ sold every day until opening day... I just went to click on each cinema within my city and clicked to book, and i can already see 80% of the 7pm, 9pm shows are fully sold...

 

[JOE]

This movie is getting killed on RT... Already 9 rotten reviews. I knew the story was going to be it's weak point.

 

[robot]

This movie is getting killed on RT... Already 9 rotten reviews. I knew the story was going to be it's weak point.

Yes, story, and character development... if you just follow a character's journey throughout his life and have no 'coherent connection with any one character, like a love interest', it'll be like a documentary at best... you may have snippets of heart, but they don't add up...

 

[G.Godfrey]

I'm lowering my prediction (115 OW, 330 DOM, 450 INTL for a 780 WW) to 95 OW, 285 DOM, 345 INTL for a total of 630 million WW.

 

[Project862006]

oh please you guys are overreacting maybe they just have different opinions jesus christ

many positives praise the story and liked the script and the characters

i knew certain people would be very hyperbolic at the hint of any negativity

 

[Sup3rman81]

oh please you guys are overreacting maybe they just have different opinions jesus christ

many positives praise the story and liked the script and the characters

i knew certain people would be very hyperbolic at the hint of any negativity

Exactly, its only had 31 reviews and most movies get over 150 to 200 total. Everyone is jumping ship because of RT and loweing their BO numbers. I am sorry but IM2 and IM3 both have low RT numbers and did pretty well at the BO. So did all 3 TF movies

 

[Liam_H]

Its funny cause I hope theses reviews will lower some peoples prediction from "your out of your f**cking mind" level.

 

[robot]

Exactly, its only had 31 reviews and most movies get over 150 to 200 total. Everyone is jumping ship because of RT and loweing their BO numbers. I am sorry but IM2 and IM3 both have low RT numbers and did pretty well at the BO. So did all 3 TF movies

It's silly to lower BO numbers based on RT scores... the highest scoring movies are indie movies that makes very little money.. huge blockbusters usually score about 70ish, or maybe 80ish... When a movie is BIG, reviewers are more 'critical' of it... and even the slightest 'fault' could fail the movie...

Plus, people need to understand... people don't care much about the Critic's numbers.. they look at the 'Viewer's' numbers.. like how many 'viewers' like the movie... the GA is shallow.. as long as a movie is 'fun', they gonna go watch it...

 

[Bruce Malone]

For the type of movie this is people will be paying attention to the RT rating. This isn't a sequel or part of a already successful franchise so people are more leery to go see something if it's reviews aren't that good.

Having the nolan name attached also places extras burden on the expectations. People expect films with his name attached to get good reviews.

 

[JOE]

It's silly to lower BO numbers based on RT scores...

It's silly to lower our predictions of what this movie will make based on the fact that already 29% of the critics that posted reviews didn't like it.

Wait... What?

Logic! Where did you go?! Logic! I can't find you! Where are you!?

 

[robot]

It's silly to lower our predictions of what this movie will make based on the fact that already 29% of the critics that posted reviews didn't like it.

Wait... What?

Logic! Where did you go?! Logic! I can't find you! Where are you!?

You obviously didn't read my entire post...

 

[JOE]

You obviously didn't read my entire post...

".. huge blockbusters usually score about 70ish, or maybe 80ish... "

"When a movie is BIG, reviewers are more 'critical' of it... and even the slightest 'fault' could fail the movie..."

I read the rest of your post, still doesn't make sense.

Explain Spider-Man 2 (93%), Iron Man (93%), The Dark Knight (94%) or The Avengers (92%)... Not to mention Spider-Man (89%) which barley missed the cut.

Unless you don't consider any of those "huge blockbusters"?

 

[sf2]

29% dislike. Hmmm... people always have higher expectation for superman. N it's cooler to say I like batman , ironman than I like superman. Really.

 

[robot]

".. huge blockbusters usually score about 70ish, or maybe 80ish... "

"When a movie is BIG, reviewers are more 'critical' of it... and even the slightest 'fault' could fail the movie..."

I read the rest of your post, still doesn't make sense.

Explain Spider-Man 2 (93%), Iron Man (93%), The Dark Knight (94%) or The Avengers (92%)... Not to mention Spider-Man (89%) which barley missed the cut.

Unless you don't consider any of those "huge blockbusters"?

You throw the word 'logic' out like you actually understood it...

If A > 90% and it does well,

Does that automatically mean

If B < 90%, that it'll do bad???

---

I can also throw out examples:

Transformers: Revenge 20% (made gazillion bucks, 6th biggest BO worldwide of all time)
Transformers: Dark Side 36%

Pirates: both at world's end and dead man's chest, on stranger tides, 44% and 54%, 33%

I can go on...

So, no, you don't need to panic and adjust your BO numbers just because a movie is in the 70% tile..

 

[JOE]

You throw the word 'logic' out like you actually understood it...

If A > 90% and it does well,

Does that automatically mean

If B < 90%, that it'll do bad???

---

I can also throw out examples:

Transformers: Revenge 20% (made gazillion bucks, 6th biggest BO worldwide of all time)
Transformers: Dark Side 36%

Pirates: both at world's end and dead man's chest, on stranger tides, 44% and 54%, 33%

I can go on...

So, no, you don't need to panic and adjust your BO numbers just because a movie is in the 70% tile..

That was broad and irrelevant. Thanks for the math lesson though.

I can find a pattern with every movie you just listed... They're all sequels. Also non relatable considering none are CBM.

Find me a CBM in the last 12 years, that A) isn't a sequel, and B) that did poor on Rotten Tomatoes yet still managed to make huge money in the BO... I double dog dare you!

 

[Ms. Marvel]

That was broad and irrelevant. Thanks for the math lesson though.

I can find a pattern with every movie you just listed... They're all sequels. Also non relatable considering none are CBM.

Find me a CBM in the last 12 years, that A) isn't a sequel, and B) that did poor on Rotten Tomatoes yet still managed to make huge money in the BO... I double dog dare you!

Alice in Wonderland?

It was mixed but still.....

 

[JOE]

Alice in Wonderland?

It was mixed but still.....

"Find me a CBM"