Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[JOE]

LAME indeed... he doesn't even have confidence on his own predictions, but continues to belittle others...

Can we just continue this in August when the money has been counted? It's useless bickering at this point. We both think we're right, it's just a matter of what actually happens.

 

[Tony Stark]

You post a bad review(because avengers didn't have any), and then go on to strawman the people who think this film will hit a billion by suggesting a gross higher than the marketing exercise that was Avengers.

pretty lame imo.

What's lame is trying to start a flame war by trying to suggest he's some sort of MCU troll.

One guy says he's sure it will hit a billion, the other guy says he's sure it won't. The truth is no one knows, but in all likely hood it's not going to hit a billion.

 

[JOE]

Thanks Tony, I liked you in IM3 btw.

 

[jacobed]

It'll hit a billion. Easily

 

[robot]

1. The OS BO will make or break this movie. "Lacking in a lot of international markets" does not help.

2. Agreed, although weak. Every superhero has their recognizable logo.

3. Critics are saying the movie has too much action, could work against you.

4. Consensus on the board? Because almost 30% of critics aren't liking it so far...

5. It's all about how the midnight showing goes and if people fall in love with it. All about the word of mouth.

You seem to have 'stellar logic'

1. True, and that's why i was initially 'angry' at WB for dropping the ball internationally.. but it's one of many variables.. the HYPE still stands despite of their marketing... if they had marketed it well, i'll be upping my prediction to 1.2B

2. The 'S' is the 2nd MOST recognizable logo in the world next to the Christian Cross... so, not weak at all...

3. No such thing as 'too much action'...

4. 30% is better than 70% now? Back to math school...

5. Like I said, the entire weekend almost sold out for the popular time, 7pm, 9pm, midnight...

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

What's lame is trying to start a flame war by trying to suggest he's some sort of MCU troll.

One guy says he's sure it will hit a billion, the other guy says he's sure it won't. The truth is no one knows, but in all likely hood it's not going to hit a billion.

IS 700-800 mil possible you think?

 

[robot]

What's lame is trying to start a flame war by trying to suggest he's some sort of MCU troll.

One guy says he's sure it will hit a billion, the other guy says he's sure it won't. The truth is no one knows, but in all likely hood it's not going to hit a billion.

There's a difference... i never flamed anyone for predicting low numbers.. Joe goes about flaming everyone who doens't agree with his low-ball numbers...

And yes, no one knows..

 

[Tony Stark]

Uh-oh trouble in Snyder/Nolan paradise. Currently at 72% at RottenTomatoes. Even lower rating than Iron Man 3, Thor and Cap. It's in Fast 6 critics rating territory. Not a great start for an overly-hyped film from that had extensive use of Nolan/Snyder/Goyer in its ads.

Too early to tell but I can safely say Man of Steel will have problems reaching 80%. I sincerely hope the box office numbers make up for it.

What's surprising to me is that at this low ratio, at the beginning of the week it may not get a fresh rating.

I think this movie might be critic proof for the opening, because WB has done a pretty good job of promoting the film, unlike Batman Begins where they dropped the ball. However, I think a low critic score could hurt it's legs.

 

[JOE]

You seem to have 'stellar logic'

1. True, and that's why i was initially 'angry' at WB for dropping the ball internationally.. but it's one of many variables.. the HYPE still stands despite of their marketing... if they had marketed it well, i'll be upping my prediction to 1.2B

2. The 'S' is the 2nd MOST recognizable logo in the world next to the Christian Cross... so, not weak at all...

3. No such thing as 'too much action'...

4. 30% is better than 70% now? Back to math school...

5. Like I said, the entire weekend almost sold out for the popular time, 7pm, 9pm, midnight...

Can you quit it with the logic thing, please?

1. Okay, it's going to suffer OS which will hurt a lot.

2. Recognizability doesn't mean people will go see it. Passion of The Christ made around 600M WW with THE MOST recognizable logo in the world.

3. Apparently there is, read some reviews.

4. I stating 30% of the critics don't like it, I don't understand what you're arguing. 30% is a huge hit MOS is taking. Obviously 70 > 30, but that's taking it's toll.

5. 1 weekend even at your 130M or whatever you predicted will not get this movie to 1B. You need consistent #1's at the BO weekend and with MU coming out, you're not going to get that.

 

[Tony Stark]

IS 700-800 mil possible you think?

700-800 is possible with big international numbers. My own predicition was 275M dom and 400 intl. so pretty close to that range.

I'm wary of these big predictions on the open as I was for Star Trek, and we saw what happened there. Granted Warner has done a much better job at promoting the film than Paramount did.

The big problem as I've said when the June 14 date was first announced is that June movies tend to struggle. I was shocked when WB couldn't seal up their traditional 2nd to last July weekend which seemed to be box office gold for them between The Dark Knight and Harry Potter.

 

[Marvin]

It's not going to hit a billion, but it should do solid enough to green light a sequel, which is all that should matter, anything else is icing on the cake.

I'm wary of all these predictions north of 150M, or even 130M open. Record for OW in June is 110M for Toy Story. Do I think this movie has that kind of pent up anticipation? Perhaps, but is it going to beat that record by 50%? No.

Toy Story is an animated franchise geared mainly towards kids. Toy Story 3 represented pretty much the gross potential of that "Genre" out side of Shrek. Couldn't care less for what toy story did, it doesn't represent the potential of the demographic in question here. Instead, try looking at what this "genre" can do relative to it's appeal, for example those iron man films.
Do Black men in barber shops talk about toy story? Cause they were talking about both Ironman and MoS last week when I stopped by

Secondly, name 2 or more films that have opened in june, in which all things being equal, would have made a boat load more money had they opened up during may or whatever. Green Lantern and the majority of recent june releases made as much as they made inspite of their dates. XFC was coming off of a truly hated string of films(the type of hate people think Transformers gets but doesn't). Speaking of which, films that have made money in june dates is Transformers and as we all know, Paramount diffuses those openings over a week.

All in all, june isn't the same as late august or early september, where there are real objective quantifiable reasons for diminished returns(such as holiday camping and school). MoS has as good a shot as any film, perhaps even moreso cause school is out but kids still have those bonds of communication for buzz.
What's more, june(AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS VERY YEAR) is usually littered with bombs or disappointments, if MoS isn't one of those, it should be clear skies a head.

Time will well.
psst, sequel's already been green lit.

 

[JOE]

There's a difference... i never flamed anyone for predicting low numbers.. Joe goes about flaming everyone who doens't agree with his low-ball numbers...

And yes, no one knows..

600M is a low-ball number?

You realize if it does 600M WW it'll be the second highest grossing CBM origin in the last 12 years? But yes, I guess I'm low-balling...

 

[Marvin]

What's lame is trying to start a flame war by trying to suggest he's some sort of MCU troll.

One guy says he's sure it will hit a billion, the other guy says he's sure it won't. The truth is no one knows, but in all likely hood it's not going to hit a billion.

never called or suggested anyone was a mcu troll.
Why did I bring up avengers you ask? Cause it was posted.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Agreed about the critical reception hurting its legs. Not that reviews are everything, but I think they're indicative of repeat business to an extent. I think it opens to at least 85m and ends at 290m+ domestic. OS numbers are a wild card but it's safe to assume this won't be doing Iron Man 3 numbers.

I will say that there seems to be a different standard by which audiences judge Marvel and DC films. The expectations are wildly different with masterpieces expected by DC's movies, while Marvel films are rightly expected to be entertaining popcorn movies. At least in regard to WB's last two comic films.

 

[JOE]

Moving on... About that OW.

 

[jacobed]

What's surprising to me is that at this low ratio, at the beginning of the week it may not get a fresh rating.

I think this movie might be critic proof for the opening, because WB has done a pretty good job of promoting the film, unlike Batman Begins where they dropped the ball. However, I think a low critic score could hurt it's legs.

Hahahaha no. Critic scores mean absolutely nothing with a movie like this. Word of mouth doesn't come from critics. Comes from the people and they'll love the crap out of this thing

 

[Marvin]

2. Recognizability doesn't mean people will go see it. Passion of The Christ made around 600M WW with THE MOST recognizable logo in the world.

Sorry but how else do you explain an extremely restricted(hard R) controversial film spoken half in a dead langauge half in one of the oldest languages ever and about religion and about people in robes walking from screen left to right, making that much money.

perhaps if that film was titled Johnny goes to bed it would have made the same amount....Name Recognition helps imo.

 

[Tony Stark]

Toy Story is an animated franchise geared mainly towards kids. Toy Story 3 represented pretty much the gross potential of that "Genre" out side of Shrek. Couldn't care less for what toy story did, it doesn't represent the potential of the demographic in question here. Instead, try looking at what this "genre" can do relative to it's appeal, for example those iron man films.
Do Black men in barber shops talk about toy story? Cause they were talking about both Ironman and MoS last week when I stopped by

Secondly, name 2 or more films that have opened in june, in which all things being equal, would have made a boat load more money had they opened up during may or whatever. Green Lantern and the majority of recent june releases made as much as they made inspite of their dates. XFC was coming off of a truly hated string of films(the type of hate people think Transformers gets but doesn't). Speaking of which, films that have made money in june dates is Transformers and as we all know, Paramount diffuses those openings over a week.

All in all, june isn't the same as late august or early september, where there are real objective quantifiable reasons for diminished returns(such as holiday camping and school). MoS has as good a shot as any film, perhaps even moreso cause school is out but kids still have those bonds of communication for buzz.
What's more, june(AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS VERY YEAR) is usually littered with bombs or disappointments, if MoS isn't one of those, it should be clear skies a head.

Time will well.
psst, sequel's already been green lit.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=06&p=.htm

Since the 2000's June has been pretty dry outside of the aforementioned sequels and Azkaban which was a sequel as well.

Cars 2 which was the first critically panned Pixar film managed to open with 66M and last year Brave which wasn't all that well received managed as much. I think it's a safe bet that it will open around that much which should be enough for no.1, in addition WWZ is getting decent reviews so far, and if it can attract the Walking Dead crowd, this might take up a good chunk of the adult audience. I'd say a 60% drop in week 2 is almost guaranteed, if it opens north of 100M.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Some will, some won't. We will see.

But its not doing over a billion. Or anything near it.

Oh and if this movie really bombed - id be shocked if it did - the sequel announcement would mean exactly squat. In fact, if the movie doesnt do at least 600 plus WW, NOTHING is certain for DC properties going forward. But im expectin at least a 600 million payday, even if the movie is meh a la SR. Because SUPERMAN and ACTION and KABOOM!!

 

[JOE]

If is a strong word, Tony. Let's hope.

 

[JOE]

Some will, some won't. We will see.

But its not doing over a billion. Or anything near it.

Another realist. I like it.

 

[schiz0id]

Hahahaha no. Critic scores mean absolutely nothing with a movie like this. Word of mouth doesn't come from critics. Comes from the people and they'll love the crap out of this thing

Tell that to WB/DC bomb Green Lantern.

 

[schiz0id]

I am now more excited to see This Is The End than Man of Steel lol

 

[Marvin]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=06&p=.htm

Since the 2000's June has been pretty dry outside of the aforementioned sequels and Azkaban which was a sequel as well.

Cars 2 which was the first critically panned Pixar film managed to open with 66M and last year Brave which wasn't all that well received managed as much. I think it's a safe bet that it will open around that much which should be enough for no.1, in addition WWZ is getting decent reviews so far, and if it can attract the Walking Dead crowd, this might take up a good chunk of the adult audience. I'd say a 60% drop in week 2 is almost guaranteed, if it opens north of 100M.

like I was saying.
Maybe it's time they started releasing some hits this month.

 

[robot]

600M is a low-ball number?

You realize if it does 600M WW it'll be the second highest grossing CBM origin in the last 12 years? But yes, I guess I'm low-balling...

Your prediction is 500M and relative to mine, it's low-ball... to you, mine's high-balling it...

Ok, i am done... this is getting tiring...