Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Liam_H]

I think they'll count the wal-mart numbers because other studios are opening earlier on thurs as well... we'll see...

It might but for the purpose of projecting its weekend numbers its confusing cause we don't know how much demand was inflated, so I'm just excluding it for now.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

So with the $44 million Friday that's gonna put it close to around the June record but should beat it, thats excluding the Wal-Mart figure.

Fri-$44 million
Sat-$36-38 million
Sun-$32-34 million

So around $112-116 million for the weekend.

I don't see Sunday doing that much unless it was a holiday weekend.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't see Sunday doing that much unless it was a holiday weekend.

Father's Day is gonna help it. I'm assuming around 10-12% drop at worst. I mean GL only dropped 10% I believe.

 

[Mysteryman]

Tomorrow is Father's day.

 

[db85usa]

The Walmart sales will likely be included. People bought tickets but they did not have to see the movie at 7 PM. I believe they could have used it for midnight or anytime Sat/Sun if I'm not mistaken. It's a huge mess over at the BoxOffice forums and hilarious reading all the arguments over it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Boxoffice mojo is projecting 120mil. I'm thinking 115-120mil is a good projection and with the Wal-Mart numbers added in 127-132mil. Great and great for a reboot.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't know how Mojo is getting a range of $120-140M for the weekend. Might be trying to get it closer to his initial $139M forecast.

 

[db85usa]

Boxoffice mojo is projecting 120mil. I'm thinking 115-120mil is a good projection and with the Wal-Mart numbers added in 127-132mil. Great and great for a reboot.

Yeah, they are fantastic numbers although it will fluctuate some places are starting to report $130+ million that includes the Walmart sales. Based on projections thus far, I would not rule out MoS closing with $135+ million including Walmart. This would still set the record for largest opening in June

 

[jsi23]

I don't see Sunday doing that much unless it was a holiday weekend.

Some of my family is going to see it Sunday on fathers day.

 

[sf2]

So is MOS doing better than IM3 OW? Domestic wise

 

[Liam_H]

So is MOS doing better than IM3 OW? Domestic wise

LOL, no.

 

[Mysteryman]

Nope.
IM3 was 174 million.
MOS wont come close to that.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So, I crunched the numbers and now I'll say Wal-Mart pre sales excluded 108-125mil for the weekend. Big range but it's my range.

Iron Man 3 numbers were always a fantasy and was never the measure of a successful opening weekend.

 

[sf2]

Nope.
IM3 was 174 million.
MOS wont come close to that.

I thought friday was 56M alone?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No friday is 44mil, the 56mil includes the Wal-Mart sneaks.

 

[kvz5]

3 day, 4 day, Walmart, no Walmart, so confusing!

My guess:

120 (w/o Walmart)
132 (w/ Walmart)

 

[Anita18]

The Walmart sales will likely be included. People bought tickets but they did not have to see the movie at 7 PM. I believe they could have used it for midnight or anytime Sat/Sun if I'm not mistaken. It's a huge mess over at the BoxOffice forums and hilarious reading all the arguments over it.

WALMART NOT INCLUDED.

Of course it'll be folded into the weekend. Lots of other movies doing Thursday prescreenings too. Even if Walmart couldn't sell all the tickets, it's still money for WB. And now all the other studios will be getting into these arrangements too.

 

[G.Godfrey]

Yikes, I lowered my prediction at the last moment and now it looks like my initial prediction will actually be correct. Oh well, can't complain!

 

[Marvin]

Yikes, I lowered my prediction at the last moment and now it looks like my initial prediction will actually be correct. Oh well, can't complain!

I wrote you a private message that said "Hold Fast" in caps. Never got around to sending it.

The critics had their moment, now it's the GA's turn. Must have been a rough week for Snyder and Cavill.

 

[db85usa]

No friday is 44mil, the 56mil includes the Wal-Mart sneaks.

Yeah, BOM is reporting the same. It'll be interesting to see if the Walmart sales affect Saturday's gross. Father's day weekend, could potentially see small drops.

Technically the Friday gross is $56 mil, if we include Walmart which in the end it will be. I am not sure it will pass $125 million since it is on track to do $120 mil based on the Friday estimate alone. You just never know what can happen but we'd have to see next to nothing in drops on Sat/Sun. I could be wrong but in this case, you have to play the odds.

$120+ mil OW is a big win for MoS! Next week it is pretty inevitable we see a big drop due to a MU/WWZ if WOM is good on either or.

 

[G.Godfrey]

I wrote you a private message that said "Hold Fast" in caps. Never got around to sending it.

Haha, too bad you didn't send that message! t: Oh well, I guess I was still right (hopefully - for the WW total) but I kind of panicked and chickened out at the last moment, abandoning the reasoning I had for my initial prediction. Can't wait for the overseas numbers this week (and the next when it opens in a lot more places). In the end it might go even higher than what I predicted.

The critics had their moment, now it's the GA's turn. Must have been a rough week for Snyder and Cavill.

Oh, no doubt. I'm happy for at least Cavill that it turned out well (for now). As for Snyder, he got waaay too much flack for the movie (despite it's faults) from the critics and hopefully the financial success will be a good patch for any wounds.

 

[Marvin]

So, I crunched the numbers and now I'll say Wal-Mart pre sales excluded 108-125mil for the weekend. Big range but it's my range.

Iron Man 3 numbers were always a fantasy and was never the measure of a successful opening weekend.

Like I said when I asked for your initial avengers numbers.
I just took them and added the same difference lol

nice to see you in the above 100 club. It only took the films first day being more than half your guess to do it though.

 

[Tobias]

My plan was to not listen to BO numbers and wait until it was over and check things out in August. But a friend blurted it out knowing I didn't want to hear anything.

MOS beat my opening week high of 100 million. But how much remains to be seen - depending on the multiplier it could be 108 - 120 million. The Wal_Mart thing I don't get. Is this the first time something like this was done?

It all depends on WOM now. Frankly I don't get the 58% RT rating. I was not as impressed with the film as I thought I'd be, based on trailers, but I'd give it an 80. Course I'm prejudiced towards Supes. deadline is lowering their projections for the weekend a bit which could mean WOM is not so great.

So the question is how much of RT and the less than stellar reviews are based on anti-Supes built in predjudice and how much is not.

I'm not sure. it's a mix I guess.

The multiplier is key. A typical 2.3 or 2.4 with a say 110 million opening gets one to my 250 - 300 domestic estimate.

The multiplier could be higher depending on WOM which seems all over the place now. I dunno.

700 million, 800 million. Either way, no way. Those were always pipe dreams and I doubt WB expected that.

The key to whether MOS is seen as a success or not is now going to be the final multiplier and OS sales.

 

[Tra-El]

Yikes, I lowered my prediction at the last moment and now it looks like my initial prediction will actually be correct. Oh well, can't complain!

I stuck to my $135 OW in my sig for months and people said I was crazy. Glad projections are close to it We'll see....

 

[Tobias]

Ironically a small vindication for Singer. SR had a 78% rating. Not that I agree with the current MOS rating but..

Just imagine what MOS would have done had the reviews been great. We know now why WB kept the embargo on them so long.