Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[FlawlessVictory]

Great posts Ultimatehero.

Skrilla, no one is ignoring the negative reviews. Yes it is rotten among the critics, HOWEVER, it is currently at 8.9 at Metacritic as voted by the general audience and 82% on RT user rating! There is obviously a big disconnect between the critics and the audience on this film so far.

If it was as horrible as you say it is those ratings would not be as high for the audience! Do you choose to ignore that?!

 

[Mysteryman]

The numbers will ultimately tell the tale .
Lets see how they add up .

 

[Tony Stark]

So you think IM3 had as much action as MOS?

More doesn't mean better. IM3 had something MOS didn't have, pacing.

 

[Tony Stark]

Great posts Ultimatehero.

Skrilla, no one is ignoring the negative reviews. Yes it is rotten among the critics, HOWEVER, it is currently at 8.9 at Metacritic as voted by the general audience and 82% on RT user rating! There is obviously a big disconnect between the critics and the audience on this film so far.

If it was as horrible as you say it is those ratings would not be as high for the audience! Do you choose to ignore that?!

It's not horrible, but even the most ardent fans would have to admit its got some serious problems.

 

[JangoNate]

Man, it feels like IM3 all over again. I remember telling people I really like it on the board and I felt like people were trying to convince me and others of like mind that our opinion wasn't valid, that one day we'd wake up and realize we didn't really like it.

The numbers from polls on this site and the RT and IMDB user reviews are showing a huge disconnect between the GA and critics. I've had friends that don't follow super hero movies coming up to me to tell me how epic they've heard it is and how they're going to see it now. I'm encountering nothing, but good WOM. And now the money's coming in and it's looking like an amazing weekend take could be the start of a ton of money this movie could potentially make.

I loved the film.

 

[BigThor]

^ This is not a response to the post above

I'm so tired of people bashing one film to uplift another, is it really necessary?

 

[HighFivingMF]

More doesn't mean better. IM3 had something MOS didn't have, pacing.

They both had pacing. But Man of Steel had one thing Iron Man 3 didn't, Superman. And Iron Man 3 had one thing Man of Steel didn't, Iron Man.

 

[NADALWON]

More doesn't mean better. IM3 had something MOS didn't have, pacing.

Awesome!

 

[JangoNate]

It's not horrible, but even the most ardent fans would have to admit its got some serious problems.

I'll admit there's a few minor issues, but nothing that would amount to serious problems. It's all pov and opinion.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

I'm so tired of people bashing one film to uplift another, is it really necessary?

Agreed. Hate it when it deteriorates into DC vs Marvel. I want success for both sides because I am a fan of the genre.

 

[Pickle-El]

More doesn't mean better. IM3 had something MOS didn't have, pacing.

It had RDJ..the onlysaving grace of IM3.

 

[Skrilla31]

If it was as horrible as you say it is those ratings would not be as high for the audience! Do you choose to ignore that?!

Yes, I am certain with every fiber of my being that the film was horrible. But that's not the point. I'm not here to convince you guys of that. I'm talking about the general reaction to the movie, not my own.

And you know what? After taking a step back and reading the numbers some of you guys are posting? Perhaps it appears I was wrong. Perhaps this movie may very well be a hit with general audiences. Only time will tell. Personally I believe it's going to crash. This isn't Transformers. It had the action but it didn't have the smiles. Transformers isn't art but the mouth breathers at my screenings probably had a ball. For those same people, Man Of Steel was probably a bore fest up until the last act. No laughs. No **** and ass. Hardly the makings of a solid summer blockbuster meant to win over that crowd. I just don't think it will have the legs.

Time will prove one of us wrong. I say it does moderately well, but a few years from now and no one will be talking about this movie. It will fade and it will be forgotten. Just like Superman Returns.

 

[Heretic]

Jango is right...people who don't know or care about Superman comic books seem to like this movie. You know...because Pa Kent would rather have people die than have his son save them...because Superman's secret to inspiring humanity is by punching things and breaking necks, not because of any morality or goodness. These people like The Dark Knight, and the idea of Superman with a Dark Knight mentality really appeals to them, because this Superman is angsty, angry and feels like an outcast. It is everything they want in a superhero movie, with none of that outdated Superman stuff getting in the way.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I liked both MOS and Iron Man 3.

 

[Bruce Malone]

So is this even BO discussion anymore?

 

[FlawlessVictory]

Yes, I am certain with every fiber of my being that the film was horrible. But that's not the point. I'm not here to convince you guys of that. I'm talking about the general reaction to the movie, not my own.

And you know what? After taking a step back and reading the numbers some of you guys are posting? Perhaps it appears I was wrong. Perhaps this movie may very well be a hit with general audiences. Only time will tell. Personally I believe it's going to crash. This isn't Transformers. It had the action but it didn't have the smiles. Transformers isn't art but the mouth breathers at my screenings probably had a ball. For those same people, Man Of Steel was probably a bore fest up until the last act. No laughs. No **** and ass. Hardly the makings of a solid summer blockbuster meant to win over that crowd. I just don't think it will have the legs.

Time will prove one of us wrong. I say it does moderately well, but a few years from now and no one will be talking about this movie. It will fade and it will be forgotten. Just like Superman Returns.

 

[NADALWON]

It's not horrible, but even the most ardent fans would have to admit its got some serious problems.

"Serious problems" depend on what your idea of a great action film is. Some people think long stretches of action is a serious problem. I think long stretches of action was essential to this film. Some critics even thought MOS was too loud (literally as in the sound). Its funny what some people think is a serious problem. But if you have serious problems, no problem, nobody can take that away from you.

 

[BigThor]

Agreed. Hate it when it deteriorates into DC vs Marvel. I want success for both sides because I am a fan of the genre.

It's so damn childish and annoying, people act as if Marvel and DC are personally paying them.

 

[JangoNate]

Jango is right...people who don't know or care about Superman comic books seem to like this movie. You know...because Pa Kent would rather have people die than have his son save them...because Superman's secret to inspiring humanity is by punching things and breaking necks, not because of any morality or goodness. These people like The Dark Knight, and the idea of Superman with a Dark Knight mentality really appeals to them, because this Superman is angsty, angry and feels like an outcast. It is everything they want in a superhero movie, with none of that outdated Superman stuff getting in the way.

And what is this in response to, because I mentioned nothing that would lead to this. I'm a comic nerd who reads Superman among others and I like this film. I didn't see a betrayal of the Superman I love, but more of a depiction of how a man, torn between two worlds and two calls came to be that Superman that I've loved.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This is a box office thread, not a bloody Iron Man 3 vs. MOS thread.

 

[BigThor]

I liked both MOS and Iron Man 3.

Same here, but no one wants to like BOTH everyone has the "pick a side" mentality.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I liked both MOS and Iron Man 3.

Same.

So is this even BO discussion anymore?

Kinda, it's about the GA.

Yep, I saw his reply coming from a mile away. Projection like that is typically always motivated.

Jango is right...people who don't know or care about Superman comic books seem to like this movie. You know...because Pa Kent would rather have people die than have his son save them...because Superman's secret to inspiring humanity is by punching things and breaking necks, not because of any morality or goodness. These people like The Dark Knight, and the idea of Superman with a Dark Knight mentality really appeals to them, because this Superman is angsty, angry and feels like an outcast. It is everything they want in a superhero movie, with none of that outdated Superman stuff getting in the way.

As an adoptee who was sent away from birth from a war-torn country with the highest crime rate in the year I was born so I could carve my own identity and survive only really having superheroes (and my adoptive parents) to look up to as inspiration (for the heroes having experienced the same) -- this is my Superman and many others I'm sure, just not yours. To me he's always been the adoptee superhero who landed in a good home. And he presents that, the positive and negatives, the joys and the angst of being such a figure - and that's inspiring to me and I'm betting many like me - and I personally couldn't ask for more. It was real.

 

[JangoNate]

This is a box office thread, not a bloody Iron Man 3 vs. MOS thread.

Yup. Now let's get those numbers in so we can talk about it. So $50 million made on Friday and $21 million for yesterday's 7pm and midnight showings. WB estimated 80 million for the weekend. I think they'll hit that.

 

[Pickle-El]

So is this even BO discussion anymore?

Everyone is taking potshots now....the only thing that really matter is how MOS holds up the next week.


The weekdays should play strong, as school is out. If WOM is fairly strong, then a 50% drop after what's looking like a 125+ Million opening is pretty darn good.

What you want with an opening in the range of 125+million is a multiplier of at least 2.4 to get 300 Million domestic. Really high rated films like TDK and Avengers got ridiculous multipliers in the 3plus category. To compare, Iron Man 3 ended up just below 2.4 from its 175 million opening.

So, if MOS manages an "ok" 2.5 multiplier you get your 300+million. If it does extremely strong WOM in the 2.8,2.9 levels, you are looking at about 350 domestic. Really all depends on the final numbers this weekend, but 300 million seems likely.

 

[BigThor]

So you think IM3 had as much action as MOS?

Just because one film has more action than another doesn't mean a films "lacks action". It's a great time to be a CMB fan in general, what's with this constant need to pick sides?