Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[113]

why is everyone working off of this $650 million ww assumption now? When did this happen?

$800 million ww minimum.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Apparently. Need a textbook?

Captain America

368m - 140m= 228m

MOS

600m - 225m = 375m

 

[Poni_Boy]

why is everyone working off of this $650 million ww assumption now? When did this happen?

$800 million ww minimum.

Because numbers don't lie

 

[Ita-KalEl]

why is everyone working off of this $650 million ww assumption now? When did this happen?

$800 million ww minimum.

Shhh, it is like the story of the 80-90m in the opening week-end. Let them do it.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Yes, but I still don't understand why Captain America, with a budget of 140m and a box office of

Domestic: $176,654,505 47.9%
+ Foreign: $191,953,858 52.1%

is considered a success.
Man of Steel with a budget of 225m and a box office of around 600m should be considered a commercial disappointment.

The strange rules of the shh message boards.

600m WW is not realized yet. 225m production budget might actually more thanks to very heavy use of CG. And MOS marketing figure was certainly near 180m, thankfully paid already by the licensing revenue if WB told the truth.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

This is the last time I am posting in this thread. I am sick of those trying to bring such a good thing down.
I have said this time and time again. Man Of Steels competition is Superman Returns; if it does better than that then it has succeeded in its purpose. MOS beats SRs entire intake in 1 week. Thereby doing its job and giving WB legs to Stand on when it comes to their Superman movies. The Avengers Iron Man, etc. be damned! I don't need a huge Blockbuster! Just a movie that makes Superman relevant again.
The end I'm out.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

600m WW is not realized yet. 225m production budget might actually more thanks to very heavy use of CG. And MOS marketing figure was certainly near 180m, thankfully paid already by the licensing revenue if WB told the truth.

So Captain America marketing budget was zero. I remember a lot of commercials on tv. Maybe they were paid by The Shield.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

This is the last time I am posting in this thread. I am sick of those trying to bring such a good thing down.
I have said this time and time again. Man Of Steels competition is Superman Returns; if it does better than that then it has succeeded in its purpose. MOS beats SRs entire intake in 1 week. Thereby doing its job and giving WB legs to Stand on when it comes to their Superman movies. The Avengers Iron Man, etc. be damned! I don't need a huge Blockbuster! Just a movie that makes Superman relevant again.
The end I'm out.

Please return at the end of the summer. It will be fun. I did it last year in the TDKR box office thread. It was a nice experience

 

[kguillou]

Please return at the end of the summer. It will be fun. I did it last year in the TDKR box office thread. It was a nice experience

I'm curious, was the TDKR box office thread this insane last year?

 

[chiefchirpa]

So Captain America marketing budget was zero. I remember a lot of commercials on tv. Maybe they were paid by The Shield.

Surely a lot less than MOS. Around $50 million.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/media/2011-07-23-captain-america-marketing_n.htm

 

[Lily Adler]

I'm curious, was the TDKR box office thread this insane last year?

YES!!! I personally hate box office threads in general after a movie comes out because the insanity and the inane debates it attracts. There are some with merit, but they are too few and far in-between the incessant insane ones.

 

[Showtime]

Surely a lot less than MOS. Around $50 million.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/media/2011-07-23-captain-america-marketing_n.htm

Marketing for MOS was 150 Million according to Variety.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Marketing for MOS was 150 Million according to Variety.

Yup. Add about 75 mil for distribution. That's why they had 170 mil worth of cross promotions, to offset that expense.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

Yup. Add about 75 mil for distribution. That's why they had 170 mil worth of cross promotions, to offset that expense.

So 50 millions of marketing for CA and the non-counted distributions were covered by a final gross of 368m ww. Again the math is an opinion in this forum.
But it is not a surprise. I have read for months that at WB they were ready and happy to loose forever the rights of Superman.

 

[113]

Yup. Add about 75 mil for distribution. That's why they had 170 mil worth of cross promotions, to offset that expense.

So more or less the side things like marketing and distribution is a wash with promotions, give or take ~$30 million.

So basically we should just be looking at the pure BO numbers - production budget, which most people have been doing in the first place. And at the very minimum imho we're looking at $800 million - $225 million.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So more or less the side things like marketing and distribution is a wash with promotions, give or take ~$30 million.

So basically we should just be looking at the pure BO numbers - production budget, which most people have been doing in the first place. And at the very minimum imho we're looking at $800 million - $225 million.

Yup. It evens out with the exception of 30-40 mil (gotta include things like advertising and taxes).

And, yes, now you can just look at the B.O. to see if they will break even (they roughly need $260 mil). If you take something like 60% of the domestic box office gross and 30% of the international box office gross you'll get to where they are right now. I'm also not sure of a few things like what Nolan and Peters points are, or exactly how much Legendary invested.

 

[danoyse]

I'm curious, was the TDKR box office thread this insane last year?

They're all this insane. Happens with virtually every movie.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yup. It evens out with the exception of 30-40 mil (gotta include things like advertising and taxes).

And, yes, now you can just look at the B.O. to see if they will break even (they roughly need $260 mil). If you take something like 60% of the domestic box office gross and 30% of the international box office gross you'll get to where they are right now. I'm also not sure of a few things like what Nolan and Peters points are, or exactly how much Legendary invested.

In other words, it is pretty much already a success. So why the doom and gloom? You keep on bring up advertising and distribution, without regarding the fact that they pretty much have been off set already.

 

[metaphysician]

Thor will probably make 450-500 WW. It won't make more since Hunger Game will take most of the WW BO money... People love this movie even though I didn't like it...

How exactly would Hunger Games take most of the WW money, when Hunger Games was a primarily domestic success, whereas Thor was primarily an overseas success?

 

[Majestic]

This thread has become a complete joke! Saying a film that has done as much as it has in a short amount of time and people saying that is bad are haters for sure! STID is getting a sequel and will not even be near Mos in the end in my opinion and the expectations for that movie were just as hi. The thread has morphed into a lot of people claiming they know it all when they really have no clue.

 

[Poni_Boy]

In other words, it is pretty much already a success. So why the doom and gloom? You keep on bring up advertising and distribution, without regarding the fact that they pretty much have been off set already.

Not sure how saying it's had disappointing WOM and legs is doom and gloom. I've always predicted this movie coming it at $600 mil. That's far from a failure. Do I have to say ZOMG ONE BILLION DOLLARS BEST MOVIE EVA? Cause I try to keep my expectations manageable

 

[DarthSkywalker]

How exactly would Hunger Games take most of the WW money, when Hunger Games was a primarily domestic success, whereas Thor was primarily an overseas success?

Yeah, not understand that.

 

[Majestic]

We are getting MOS 2 most likely for sure! A business decision has already been made and WB realizes the major potential going forward hence why no legendary and wanting to split profits.

 

[113]

For all those that love the movie just remember these numbers to keep things in perspective when the doom-sayers pop up.

This film has racked up $214 million domestic/$402 million worldwide in 11 days! 11 days!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Not sure how saying it's had disappointing WOM and legs is doom and gloom. I've always predicted this movie coming it at $600 mil. That's far from a failure. Do I have to say ZOMG ONE BILLION DOLLARS BEST MOVIE EVA? Cause I try to keep my expectations manageable

No, I am on the keeping expectations in check train. $600m has always been the goal for me. Heck, I was praying $550m would happen a few months back.

But you do seem deadset on informing everyone that this movie isn't a great success BO, for whatever reason. Why bring up the distribution and marketing numbers without the sponsorships?

Also, a little off topic, but how in the world did they spend $150m on marketing. That just seems crazy considering how short the push really was.

For all those that love the movie just remember these numbers to keep things in perspective when the doom-sayers pop up.

This film has racked up $214 million domestic/$402 million worldwide in 11 days! 11 days!

It is not unfair to point out that MoS legs are going to be cut worse then usual each and every week with all the releases coming out. This isn't a normal schedule to go up against. It is going to lose viewers and screens at a pretty fast rate.