Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 9

[Joeyjojo72]

Spidey 1, whatever you think of the film, was a seismic event for SH/CB movies. I'ts been off to the races ever since. It FELT like a billion at the time.

 

[Juha Bach]

If a film performs below expected, then it doesn't matter how much it grossed. 600 million is just a number. If a low budget romantic comedy grosses 600 million, that would be nothing short of earth shattering. If in 2015 Avengers 2 grosses 600 million, that would be considered a huge failure.

Man Of Steel was the most talked about movie all year. The anticipation for thing was very, very high. The positivity surrounding this movie was overwhelming. The marketing was top notch. It had the highest opening weekend in the history of June. It's very understandable that to some, 600 million is a modest final take.

Man Of Steel "revived" the brand in the sense that people are at least talking about Superman. But I believe it did severe damage as well. Every time you release a bad Superman movie, you miss out on winning over a new generation of fans. Superman will always be an icon in a way Iron Man and Captain America can't be, but I'm willing to bet that come Halloween you will see more kids dressed as their favorite Avenger than Superman. And when these kids are all grown up and have children of their own, it won't be Superman cartoons they'll be showing them. It's gonna be Iron Man cartoons. The stuff they watched when they were kids.

Superman used to own the largest share in superhero fandom. Now he's got some serious competition. That is a testament to just how much WB and DC have dropped the ball.

Disagree with everything in this post. 600+ million is a success no matter how you slice it. This movie is coming of superman returns which nearly made this iconic character irrelevant but that has changed. And lol at the notion that WB has dropped the ball. If A 2 billion+ batman trilogy and a successfull reboot of the superman that will lead to beginning of the DCCU is dropping the ball then this world has gone to the dogs. Oh and superman still has his large fan base(will increase after MoS) as does batman and spiderman. There is no decline as you are trying to insinuate.

 

[JOE]

What's the WW BO on track for? Is it over 700M or no?

 

[br0adband]

Disagree with everything in this post. 600+ million is a success no matter how you slice it. This movie is coming of superman returns which nearly made this iconic character irrelevant but that has changed. And lol at the notion that WB has dropped the ball. If A 2 billion+ batman trilogy and a successfull reboot of the superman that will lead to beginning of the DCCU is dropping the ball then this world has gone to the dogs. Oh and superman still has his large fan base(will increase after MoS) as does batman and spiderman. There is no decline as you are trying to insinuate.

Someone post that Harry Potter breakdown again, it would fit in right about now.

 

[blumatic]

If a film performs below expected, then it doesn't matter how much it grossed. 600 million is just a number. If a low budget romantic comedy grosses 600 million, that would be nothing short of earth shattering. If in 2015 Avengers 2 grosses 600 million, that would be considered a huge failure.

Man Of Steel was the most talked about movie all year. The anticipation for thing was very, very high. The positivity surrounding this movie was overwhelming. The marketing was top notch. It had the highest opening weekend in the history of June. It's very understandable that to some, 600 million is a modest final take.

Man Of Steel "revived" the brand in the sense that people are at least talking about Superman. But I believe it did severe damage as well. Every time you release a bad Superman movie, you miss out on winning over a new generation of fans. Superman will always be an icon in a way Iron Man and Captain America can't be, but I'm willing to bet that come Halloween you will see more kids dressed as their favorite Avenger than Superman. And when these kids are all grown up and have children of their own, it won't be Superman cartoons they'll be showing them. It's gonna be Iron Man cartoons. The stuff they watched when they were kids.

Superman used to own the largest share in superhero fandom. Now he's got some serious competition. That is a testament to just how much WB and DC have dropped the ball.

While I agree that WB did handle Superman well in the past, I think Superman's shrinkage of his lionshare of fandom is due to the fact that other Superheroes are finally getting their shine. Quality CBMs have captured the imaginations of fans and have grabbed a few fans away from Superman.

And nothing is wrong with that. There will always be a large contingent of Superman fans. Its great to see other heroes are getting their shine.

 

[spider-neil]

I think MoS drop off has more to do with competition than quality of the movie or WOM.

 

[Liam_H]

I think MoS drop off has more to do with competition than quality of the movie or WOM.

Or a good deal of both.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Very much both.

People liked the movie fine but moved on. Simple as that.

 

[spider-neil]

Or a good deal of both.

I think it's competition.
MU - Kid and families
WWZ - Teens and young adults

Two demographics that eat directly into MoS take and it's going to get worse when DM2 comes out (which was very funny.

 

[Liam_H]

For people to say its mostly competition I don't agree with. If WOM is positive enough it should sway some people form seeing those movies. So I see it as both aspects.

No doubt MoS would've held up better if nothing came out that week or nothing that was appealing.

 

[kalhawj]

Disagree with everything in this post. 600+ million is a success no matter how you slice it. This movie is coming of superman returns which nearly made this iconic character irrelevant but that has changed. And lol at the notion that WB has dropped the ball. If A 2 billion+ batman trilogy and a successfull reboot of the superman that will lead to beginning of the DCCU is dropping the ball then this world has gone to the dogs. Oh and superman still has his large fan base(will increase after MoS) as does batman and spiderman. There is no decline as you are trying to insinuate.

 

[Max Newlander]

Disagree with everything in this post. 600+ million is a success no matter how you slice it. This movie is coming of superman returns which nearly made this iconic character irrelevant but that has changed. And lol at the notion that WB has dropped the ball. If A 2 billion+ batman trilogy and a successfull reboot of the superman that will lead to beginning of the DCCU is dropping the ball then this world has gone to the dogs. Oh and superman still has his large fan base(will increase after MoS) as does batman and spiderman. There is no decline as you are trying to insinuate.

600m isn't a particular success. It's a big number, and if this film was called 'Wonderman' then it would be seen as a real success and potential franchise for the future. It's all about expectations, and justifications. A great Superman movie makes a billion dollars comfortably in the current BO climate, possibly 1.2-1.5 billion. Especially with inflated 3D and IMAX prices.

The character is known WW, is one of the most recognised fictional character in cultures all around the globe.

I will give you the fact that Batman Begins was a slow burner BO wise not long after the dreadful J Schumacher movies. You could argue (and strongly) SR has the same effect on MoS, and any sequels for Superman could follow the trend his DC colleague TDK did in respects to BO gross. However...

MoS is not, no matter how positive you are about it as good a foundation that Begins was. I remember none Bat fans raving about it (the ones that did give it a go), WOM is no where near as strong about it, Bluray (DVD equivelent) sales won't be as good either for MoS compared to Batman I'm quite sure. (I'm not a Nolan groupie just for the record)

This movie won't be remembered as a classic or even a particularly great CB film in years to come (I exclude fanboys opinions in this) The rewatchability of it isn't particularly great either IMO. It's split opinion amounst Superman fans, exclude the most negative and the most positive and look at the middle ground. It's a 6.5-8 out of 10 type movie. IMDB final score will fall to 7.6-7.7 or so IMO.

This film should have been much better with less flaws, and because of that it's BO should have been stronger too. I really really wanted to recommend this movie to my family and friends, however I can't, I will let them make there own decision to go or not. This is where WOM has failed in my situ, and that's coming from a rational Superman fan.

 

[blumatic]

I think MoS drop off has more to do with competition than quality of the movie or WOM.

I also think there is a distrust with Superman. I think people still have a bad taste in their mouth from Superman Returns.

I think MOS is doing fairly well. Especially for a reboot. I think MOS will grow in favor with audiences over time once they see in TV a couple of times. Sort of the opposite effect of Superman Returns.

I dont know why WB put MOS in June and not July. Im thinking they they feel Pacific Rim needs more help than MOS does. And June 14th was a far enough date to stay clear of the Avengers ripple effect known as Iron man (That film was dissapointing, but it makes people laugh so it sells).

 

[kalhawj]

For people to say its mostly competition I don't agree with. If WOM is positive enough it should sway some people form seeing those movies. So I see it as both aspects.

No doubt MoS would've held up better if nothing came out that week or nothing that was appealing.

Disagree... not if those family have kids who rather take their kids to see a kids movie over a CBM movie or Zombie/horror fans wanting to see zombie/horror movies. It's only after those folks have seen their movie will they go see MOS. Just like how us CBM fans would rather go see a CBM before they go see something like WWZ or MU. There are large fanbase for both Zombie and MU that alone cut off some of MOS second week BO intake.

 

[STARMAN]

The pattern is clear. If you like the film you will overate the box office number and if you dislike the film you will be overly critical of the box office number.

 

[br0adband]

"Can't we all just... quote figures from BoxOfficeMojo and get along?"

 

[Liam_H]

Then by that logic MoS should rebound and make $325M+ domestic.

 

[Marvin]

For people to say its mostly competition I don't agree with. If WOM is positive enough it should sway some people form seeing those movies. So I see it as both aspects.

No doubt MoS would've held up better if nothing came out that week or nothing that was appealing.

It takes a certain kind of movie to weather that kind of storm. Perhaps an ironman 3 sort of film. If anyone claims that MoS was destined or even getting that sort of "word of mouth" then surely no.

But if you take Ironman 1 and you give it this precise second weekend comp, I'm thinking it would face a similar drop. Teens and families.
I mean not only did mos open higher than that success but this third week it's right back to a 50percentile drop. Bad word of mouth would imply another 60plus drop no? The MOS weekdays seem to be solid given the big openings last weekend.

The films not TDK but it's surely doing a great deal better than Begins ever aspired to.

 

[Juha Bach]

600m isn't a particular success. It's a big number, and if this film was called 'Wonderman' then it would be seen as a real success and potential franchise for the future. It's all about expectations, and justifications. A great Superman movie makes a billion dollars comfortably in the current BO climate, possibly 1.2-1.5 billion. Especially with inflated 3D and IMAX prices.

The character is known WW, is one of the most recognised fictional character in cultures all around the globe.

I will give you the fact that Batman Begins was a slow burner BO wise not long after the dreadful J Schumacher movies. You could argue (and strongly) SR has the same effect on MoS, and any sequels for Superman could follow the trend his DC colleague TDK did in respects to BO gross. However...

MoS is not, no matter how positive you are about it as good a foundation that Begins was. I remember none Bat fans raving about it (the ones that did give it a go), WOM is no where near as strong about it, Bluray (DVD equivelent) sales won't be as good either for MoS compared to Batman I'm quite sure. (I'm not a Nolan groupie just for the record)

This movie won't be remembered as a classic or even a particularly great CB film in years to come (I exclude fanboys opinions in this) The rewatchability of it isn't particularly great either IMO. It's split opinion amounst Superman fans, exclude the most negative and the most positive and look at the middle ground. It's a 6.5-8 out of 10 type movie. IMDB final score will fall to 7.6-7.7 or so IMO.

This film should have been much better with less flaws, and because of that it's BO should have been stronger too. I really really wanted to recommend this movie to my family and friends, however I can't, I will let them make there own decision to go or not. This is where WOM has failed in my situ, and that's coming from a rational Superman fan.

MoS has given the franchise a solid enough foundation for it grow and become even more successful.

 

[Liam_H]

It takes a certain kind of movie to weather that kind of storm. Perhaps an ironman 3 sort of film. If anyone claims that MoS was destined or even getting that sort of "word of mouth" then surely no.

But if you take Ironman 1 and you give it this precise second weekend comp, I'm thinking it would face a similar drop. Teens and families.
I mean not only did mos open higher than that success but this third week it's right back to a 50percentile drop. Bad word of mouth would imply another 60plus drop no? The MOS weekdays seem to be solid given the big openings last weekend.

The films not TDK but it's surely doing a great deal better than Begins ever aspired to.

So you're agreeing with me? Cause I'm saying WOM overall is positive but nothing great that some people on here seem to be saying.

 

[kalhawj]

600m isn't a particular success. It's a big number, and if this film was called 'Wonderman' then it would be seen as a real success and potential franchise for the future. It's all about expectations, and justifications. A great Superman movie makes a billion dollars comfortably in the current BO climate, possibly 1.2-1.5 billion. Especially with inflated 3D and IMAX prices.

The character is known WW, is one of the most recognised fictional character in cultures all around the globe.

I will give you the fact that Batman Begins was a slow burner BO wise not long after the dreadful J Schumacher movies. You could argue (and strongly) SR has the same effect on MoS, and any sequels for Superman could follow the trend his DC colleague TDK did in respects to BO gross. However...

MoS is not, no matter how positive you are about it as good a foundation that Begins was. I remember none Bat fans raving about it (the ones that did give it a go), WOM is no where near as strong about it, Bluray (DVD equivelent) sales won't be as good either for MoS compared to Batman I'm quite sure. (I'm not a Nolan groupie just for the record)

This movie won't be remembered as a classic or even a particularly great CB film in years to come (I exclude fanboys opinions in this) The rewatchability of it isn't particularly great either IMO. It's split opinion amounst Superman fans, exclude the most negative and the most positive and look at the middle ground. It's a 6.5-8 out of 10 type movie. IMDB final score will fall to 7.6-7.7 or so IMO.

This film should have been much better with less flaws, and because of that it's BO should have been stronger too. I really really wanted to recommend this movie to my family and friends, however I can't, I will let them make there own decision to go or not. This is where WOM has failed in my situ, and that's coming from a rational Superman fan.

MOS has yet to be release on DVD so you don't know how well that turn out. Wait until it's out before you compare the two... For all we know it could be top seller all time...

This movie won't be remembered as a classic or even a particularly great CB film in years to come (I exclude fanboys opinions in this) The rewatchability of it isn't particularly great either IMO.

This part is all opinion on your part... I know a low of GA calling this movie the best Superman movie ever from new generation to old generation. This include my brother-n-law who can careless about CBM, which he is consider part of the majority of GA who love MOS (80%).

 

[Marvin]

So you're agreeing with me? Cause I'm saying WOM overall is positive but nothing great that some people on here seem to be saying.

I don't think it's TDK.
I'm thinking Spidey1 but with less first time wonder
I'm thinking IM1 but with more controversy

if that's what you think then yes. It's certainly making more of a splash than ASM did last year.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

So what's the prediction for the weekend ?
What do you guys see MOS ending with domestically ? I'm thinking 280 million.

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

The pattern is clear. If you like the film you will overate the box office number and if you dislike the film you will be overly critical of the box office number.

MOS has the June opening record, and the reboot opening record. So anyone who doesn't rate those records highly, is deluded. Its already made more than Batman Begins, both domestically and overseas. Its a smashing success. WB said it was only expected to open with $80million!

 

[Marvin]

So what's the prediction for the weekend ?
What do you guys see MOS ending with domestically ? I'm thinking 280 million.

Weekend 20mill
Dom 290 mill

more or less depending on competition(whatever that word means around here).