Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tyrone Parker]

I could be wrong, but I won't be lol There's a different feeling with this film than what I had with SR. I wasn't entirely too excited back in 2006 when I realized it was a continuation of the donner universe. This time, we'll be getting a Superman we have never before seen on film.

I feel the same way I had no interest in seeing SR and I was waiting forever for a new take on Superman to come out. When I heard it was a continuation my interest dropped. When I saw the suit and unmanly actor it dropped more, no super powered villains even more. The icing on the cake was portraying Superman as a wimpy punching bag.

I never saw the movie until 3 years ago.

This is the take on Superman I have been waiting forever for.

People are seriously low balling this movie. I cant believe they actually think SR is going to hurt it. They will soon see that movie is gone and forgotten.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Man of Steel

Opening weekend-85mil

Total-260mil

International-350mil

 

[Tyrone Parker]

Man of Steel

Opening weekend-85mil

Total-260mil

International-350mil

You have any money to bet? I'll take over 85 mil for $1000.

I cant wait for my sports book to put this up to bet on. I doubt they'll have it this low.

 

[G.Godfrey]

This topic is going to be a lot of fun a week for now. t:

 

[sf2]

I feel the same way I had no interest in seeing SR and I was waiting forever for a new take on Superman to come out. When I heard it was a continuation my interest dropped. When I saw the suit and unmanly actor it dropped more, no super powered villains even more. The icing on the cake was portraying Superman as a wimpy punching bag.

I never saw the movie until 3 years ago.

This is the take on Superman I have been waiting forever for.

People are seriously low balling this movie. I cant believe they actually think SR is going to hurt it. They will soon see that movie is gone and forgotten.

My case was different. I was totally over excited for SR. I followed it from pre its inception time till the very end of it, almost daily. So attached. I drew comic strips for it. It was crazy. I loved SR’s initial concept to use Donner’s universe as a springboard to new story. I believe the origin story is not the only way to make a successful superman story. And you have to do the established superman story and make it work if you want to have a successful franchise. And I believed SR was heading the right way. Then we heard about the poor design of the super suit. We saw the 1st official image; a poor shot and unsupermanly expression / pose, following with a lot of official pics with amateur standard. And then we heard about the superkid rumors. Nevertheless, I didn’t believe it because every Tom and Jane would know that it’s a suicidal move for any action hero movie and Bryan Singer wasn’t that stupid. I believed SR gonna do great; SR would have immense incredible action because we were showed the sophisticated camera they used. SR was gonna smashing records. People would welcome him with open arms… just like in the movie…
We then found out Prada had strong legs then SR…


And now I am burned totally.


SR didn’t do good mainly because of its own fault. That’s no argument. However, do you think the factor “superman isn’t that popular” contributed to the poor performance of SR too? it’s easy to notice that people around us are more interested in batman, spidey and ironman.



Therefore, I still think MOS isn’t gonna do great. My estimate still remains. $400M to $500M.

 

[redhawk23]

I'm going to guess just under 700 million world wide.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You have any money to bet? I'll take over 85 mil for $1000.

I cant wait for my sports book to put this up to bet on. I doubt they'll have it this low.

Unfortunately I'm broke as hell. I don't think that a 90mil opening is out of the question at all but I don't think that 70mil is either. That is my official prediction though.

 

[DKDetective]

I have a hard time making a prediction because there has been so little marketing so far. If Warner Bros does kick the marketing into overdrive and do a good job of it, I feel like middle of the road $500-600 million WW predictions in this threat will very quickly seem low.

 

[Micromind]

My case was different. I was totally over excited for SR. I followed it from pre its inception time till the very end of it, almost daily. So attached. I drew comic strips for it. It was crazy. I loved SR’s initial concept to use Donner’s universe as a springboard to new story. I believe the origin story is not the only way to make a successful superman story. And you have to do the established superman story and make it work if you want to have a successful franchise. And I believed SR was heading the right way. Then we heard about the poor design of the super suit. We saw the 1st official image; a poor shot and unsupermanly expression / pose, following with a lot of official pics with amateur standard. And then we heard about the superkid rumors. Nevertheless, I didn’t believe it because every Tom and Jane would know that it’s a suicidal move for any action hero movie and Bryan Singer wasn’t that stupid. I believed SR gonna do great; SR would have immense incredible action because we were showed the sophisticated camera they used. SR was gonna smashing records. People would welcome him with open arms… just like in the movie…
We then found out Prada had strong legs then SR…


And now I am burned totally.


SR didn’t do good mainly because of its own fault. That’s no argument. However, do you think the factor “superman isn’t that popular” contributed to the poor performance of SR too? it’s easy to notice that people around us are more interested in batman, spidey and ironman.



Therefore, I still think MOS isn’t gonna do great. My estimate still remains. $400M to $500M.

I know that SR is not a perfect Superman movie by any means, but still it was a good movie. The reasons why it did not do well at Box Office was -

* It had to face tough competition from Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest franchise that was very popular and entertaining back then, SR was not action packed so naturally kids, Teen audience and many adults preferred POTC 2 over SR, the female audience preferred to watch The Devil Wears Prada.

* Superman was viewed as a character that belonged to past, as in 2006 it was the first Superman movie on big screen after a period of 19 years, the younger generation had fans of Spider-Man, X-Men and Batman, they were simply indifferent to character like Superman.

* The movie did little to win over new fans, as it depended too much on nostalgia and it was not a fun popcorn action movie that many fans wanted.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I was listening to Movie Moan, and I was actually surprised to hear Jamie's box-office predictions for MOS. $100M+ opening weekend, and around $300M domestic cume. That would be a great June opening for a live-action film outside of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.

I hope WB gets that final trailer right and use those TV spots in the right areas.

I love Jamie but I think his prediction and everyone else's on Moviemoan was loco. I just do not see a reboot in June hitting 300mil. Now my 260mil prediction is because of inflation and 3D. I'd be crazy not to take that into account but this movie has a historically. lousy release date and it's a reboot. 300+mil would be a jaw dropping number. If the movie had a different release date maybe but for a decade now every early and mid June release that isn't an animated film has under performed.

I remember the 200mil predictions for The Incredible Hulk and the 300mil ones for Batman Begins and Superman Returns. And just last year the Raimi haters were dead set on The Amazing Spiderman hitting 300-400mil. With the exception of Star Trek every single one of these reboots have been over predicted by me and others. If I'm wrong, great because the movie looks awesome. If anything I think I'm 15mil too high.

 

[BH/HHH]

I'm really nervous about the box office. It will make or break the chances of a sequel and quite possible DC on film outside of Batman. I do think though if it makes a ton at the BO they'll do a sequel before any JL movie.

I'm gonna stick with what I've said before though I think WW total will fall anywhere between 600-800 million. Anything more is a bonus.

 

[bgshw44]

For reference, MOS is currently trading at $244.50 on HSX

 

[BH/HHH]

For reference, MOS is currently trading at $244.50 on HSX

Sorry if I'm been dumb, but what does that mean?

 

[Micromind]

For MOS to do better than 500 mil (equal to SR when you take into account the inflation since 2006 and additional 15 % boost provided by 3D.), number of people watching the movie has to increase as compared to SR.

For that, MOS has to win over the audience who normally don't go to Superman / DC movies and those audience among general audience who don't like to watch comics based movies.

 

[bgshw44]

Sorry if I'm been dumb, but what does that mean?

244.5 million in domestic box office. Granted there is 2 months until release and it will peak around release, but that is the current consensus. I still think this movie will be huge, my brother, who is the stereotypical general audience with no real interest in the character, has huge interest in this movie because of Nolan. The name association is worth more than some think.

 

[BH/HHH]

244.5 million in domestic box office. Granted there is 2 months until release and it will peak around release, but that is the current consensus. I still think this movie will be huge, my brother, who is the stereotypical general audience with no real interest in the character, has huge interest in this movie because of Nolan. The name association is worth more than some think.

Oh yeah for sure Nolan's Batman trilogy and Inception have really put him on a pedestal where people will flock to see things when he's involved. He's at the peak of his popularity right now so many people trust him to deliver.

 

[J.Howlett]

137 million opening weekend. 315 million domestic take. 675 million worldwide total.

 

[Marvin]

This place is about to get alot more interesting.

Thus far alot of people have been basing their guesses on a post SR audience and WB's pensive marketing...and the negatives of a reboot with a boost from the Nolan name among other things.

Never underestimate the power of a calculated trailer.

For better or worse, when summer's over and this makes what it makes, people will look back and say, "it's so obvious in hindsight".

 

[GreenKToo]

If the trailer is as good as i'm hearing, then i'm going up with my guess. we shall see.

 

[BH/HHH]

If the trailer is as good as i'm hearing, then i'm going up with my guess. we shall see.

What have you been hearing?

 

[LegendaryCaleb]

110 million opening

900 million worldwide i think

 

[Mysteryman]

244.5 million in domestic box office. Granted there is 2 months until release and it will peak around release, but that is the current consensus. I still think this movie will be huge, my brother, who is the stereotypical general audience with no real interest in the character, has huge interest in this movie because of Nolan. The name association is worth more than some think.

What does that translate to in opening weekend and how often is HSX wrong ?

 

[kedrell]

Man of Steel

Opening weekend-85mil

Total-260mil

International-350mil

That's the most reasonable guess I've seen around here in a long time. It's pretty much what I give it, too. Maybe slightly less on the OS number but that's the general ballpark.

SR made less OS than DOM. I know there's been a big change in OS with China and whatnot but I still wouldn't be suprised if MoS made more DOM than OS. I also wouldn't be shocked too much if I turn out to be wrong in that assessment.

 

[Pickle-El]

That's the most reasonable guess I've seen around here in a long time. It's pretty much what I give it, too. Maybe slightly less on the OS number but that's the general ballpark.

SR made less OS than DOM. I know there's been a big change in OS with China and whatnot but I still wouldn't be suprised if MoS made more DOM than OS. I also wouldn't be shocked too much if I turn out to be wrong in that assessment.

So long as it hits its breakeven point/budget (210 million?) domestic, it will be fine.

 

[Squaremaster316]

OW: 84M

Dom: 275M

OS: 400M

Total: 675M