May Box Office Predictions

[narrows101]

Comingsoon.net also has a summer box office preview:

Part 1: http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=14345
Part 2: http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=14408

X-Men: The Last Stand (20th Century Fox) - May 26
Everyone's favorite mutants are back, as are all the actors who played them in the previous two "X-Men" movies, including Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Halle Berry as Storm, and of course, Ian McKellen and Patrick Stewart. The only one not back is director Bryan Singer, who moved onto Superman Returns, but he's been replaced by Brett Ratner (after a brief attempt by Layer Cake director Matthew Vaughn). The fanboys are nervous about the "Rush Hour" honcho messing with the mutants, but the millions of regular people who loved the last movie will probably be chomping at the bit for what is supposedly the final installment, featuring more mutants than you can count on both hands and feet. The regulars are joined by Kelsey "Frasier" Grammer as Beast, Ben Foster as Angel and Hard Candy's Ellen Page as Kitty Pryde. The three-quel is getting a plum Memorial Day release, one of the busiest movie weekends of the year, where it will be trying to take the holiday weekend record away from Shrek 2. X2 made over $89 million its opening weekend and there's really no reason why X-Men: The Last Stand shouldn't make more than that in its first four days.
Box Office Potential: $200 to 220 million

The Weekend Warrior's Projected Top 10 Movies of Summer:
(All box office figures are projected through Labor Day.)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (July 7 - Disney) - $310 million
2. The Da Vinci Code (May 19 - Sony) - $275 million
3. Superman Returns (June 30 - WB) - $265 million
4. Cars (June 9 - Disney/Pixar) - $245 million
5. X-Men: The Last Stand (May 26 - FOX) - $212 million
6. Mission: Impossible III (May 5 - Paramount) - $190 million
7. Over the Hedge (May 19 - DreamWorks) - $165 million
8. Click (June 23 - Sony) - $145 million
9. Poseidon (May 12 - Warner Bros.) - $140 million
10. Lady in the Water (July 21 - Warner Bros.) – $125 million

 

[RagingTempest]

X3 definately is getting a lot of hype!!! It will probably be soldout on Friday and Saturday, even Sunday!!!

 

[Downhere]

There estimate for X3 is too low.

 

[L0ngsh0t]

80 million over 3 days is alot...with a holiday on monday like there saying 19 million added to it

so it will be at 110 mil after 4 days, your average movie earns about a 3rd to a half(Depending on how good it is) in its opening weekend

so if this movie is good, and has good word of mouth, with an 80-100 million opening it could easily be looking at 300 milion

 

[Downhere]

Actually no Longshot. X2's multiplier was 2.5 after an 85 million dollar opening. I'm thinking it's multiplier will be a bit better since it comes out at at time where school will almost be out for the summer so maybe it will get a multiplier of 2.75 after a 100 million dollar opening, that's 275. I'm hoping for at least 250 million, but 275 mil seems attainable.

 

[MJB]

If the quality doesn't slip then I'm sure the movie will do well. I'm going to be optimistic. I think x3 will struggle to get pass 400 million domestically.

I think x3 will do come Monday 130-140 million for the four day weekend. if it legs hold it'll probably rake in 30-40 for the rest of the week and do anoth 50-60 million the next weekend. My numbers may be a little high, but i have faith. Although this depends on the quality of the film. I have no problem with ratner, but Penn and Kinberg has be the most worried. I als must say that if the audience is turned off by the deaths of Cyke and Xavier then it will hurt the box office potential.

 

[Downhere]

I have faith, but struggling to reach 400 million? 400 million? As much as I love X-Men, and I love X-Men, it will not make that much Domestically. Internationally, yes, it should pass that and get to 500 million. But domestically, there is no chance. I would understand if you said it would struggle to make 300 mil, but judging from the previous films box office takes, this will probably fall in the 240-300 range domestically.

 

[lordofthenerds]

I have faith, but struggling to reach 400 million? 400 million? As much as I love X-Men, and I love X-Men, it will not make that much Domestically. Internationally, yes, it should pass that and get to 500 million. But domestically, there is no chance. I would understand if you said it would struggle to make 300 mil, but judging from the previous films box office takes, this will probably fall in the 240-300 range domestically.

Yeha, I think it will struggle to get over 250 mil. It would have to be like Titanic to get 400 million domestically.

 

[MJB]

The changing of directors isn't going to bother people, cause a good deal of the movie going audience has no idea who the hell Singer is. I think more know Brett ratner, but still the changing of directors isn't going to be the downfall of the movie. The script and the quality will.

 

[Downhere]

I agree that the director change will have no bearing on the box office take. I'm just saying that 400 mil domestically is big time dreaming. lol. I do think, however, and have a feeling that this is going to out gross SR. I think X3 could land somewhere in the top 3 biggest summer films.

 

[MJB]

Yeha, I think it will struggle to get over 250 mil. It would have to be like Titanic to get 400 million domestically.

Well didn't spiderman get over 400 million? titanic got over 500 million at the box office domestically if i'm not wrong.

 

[lordofthenerds]

Well didn't spiderman get over 400 million? titanic got over 500 million at the box office domestically if i'm not wrong.

I know, I was just saying that it would have to be more popular tahn it will be to reach 400 million.

 

[MJB]

I have faith, but struggling to reach 400 million? 400 million? As much as I love X-Men, and I love X-Men, it will not make that much Domestically. Internationally, yes, it should pass that and get to 500 million. But domestically, there is no chance. I would understand if you said it would struggle to make 300 mil, but judging from the previous films box office takes, this will probably fall in the 240-300 range domestically.

I also did say that my figures were a little high, heck maybe a lot, but i did point out I was being optimistic. Truth be told i think if the quality holds up then the movie just may slightly go over 300 million. My realistic take at the box office puts X3 between 225-260 million.

 

[Downhere]

Well didn't spiderman get over 400 million? titanic got over 500 million at the box office domestically if i'm not wrong.

You can't compare this to Spider-Man. You have to judge it by it's previous films which are X1 (157 million domestically) and X2 (214.9 million domestically). Being the third film in the franchise and having a nice anticipation for the film should get it above the second one, but how much above is the question.

 

[MJB]

I can't believe that they think POTC will make more then Superman. I totally see Superman more then any other of the movie of year making pretty close or breaking 400 million.

 

[MJB]

You can't compare this to Spider-Man. You have to judge it by it's previous films which are X1 (157 million domestically) and X2 (214.9 million domestically). Being the third film in the franchise and having a nice anticipation for the film should get it above the second one, but how much above is the question.

You're right, but just being the great optimist.

 

[lordofthenerds]

I can't believe that they think POTC will make more then Superman. I totally see Superman more then any other of the movie of year making pretty close or breaking 400 million.

I can. The first one was huge, and probably the second will make even more.

 

[Downhere]

When you have a previous film that made over 300 million domestically, I can see where people are predicting POTC 2 to make more than that. SR has a week to make its money, after that it will go down hill. POTC 2 is going to be huge, and I mean huge.

 

[Fanticon]

I like to have fun predicting box office too...but those people at BOP make it sound like they have money riding on it...like they're betting...hmm after reading them it wouldn't surprise me...I think X3 will hit 300million, I think its going to be huge...but the 400million? thats a bit high...not even StarWarsEPIII made it to those heights...but one guy said 330 million...and thats still possible but a bit high also, imo. But its strange that many of these sights are going with 200-215 million...that really bugs me...X3 is not a declining franchise...if anything this is its peak and it will be way up there m-f-ers! Woohoo! 21days...110m opening weekend! Headlines "X-men save the industry from its slump!"

 

[Downhere]

If you think the guys from BOP make it sound like they have money riding on it, then you haven't been to Box Office Mojo. Those guys really take it seriously. lol.

 

[Weadazoid]

I think X3 will make more than $80 million OW.

i agree I have always put them at around 90 maybe more....over 100 million for the 4 day

 

[LoGaN's RuNNer]

That's what I'm referring to. I think it'll make more than $80 million over it's first 3 days.

Yeah, 80 million sounds a bit low. Maybe closer to the 90 million mark.

 

[LoGaN's RuNNer]

I like to have fun predicting box office too...but those people at BOP make it sound like they have money riding on it...like they're betting...hmm after reading them it wouldn't surprise me...I think X3 will hit 300million, I think its going to be huge...but the 400million? thats a bit high...not even StarWarsEPIII made it to those heights...but one guy said 330 million...and thats still possible but a bit high also, imo. But its strange that many of these sights are going with 200-215 million...that really bugs me...X3 is not a declining franchise...if anything this is its peak and it will be way up there m-f-ers! Woohoo! 21days...110m opening weekend! Headlines "X-men save the industry from its slump!"

The slump, is because of the uprise in Piracy! GRR
Revenge had copies alreadyfrom the day it opened! So I wouldn't be surprised if X3 has a copy floating around within the first few days.. grr
I think this movie will make 275 million ish, 400 million is definately way too high, if it hit 400 million it would be right up there for around 3rd, or 4th place in box office history.

 

[Kmack]

I very much agree with the predicted opening weekend But I wouldn't be surprised if if made more than $80 million.

 

[YJ1]

I agree re $100M for three days

How many movies have made over 100M during its first three days? Last I checked, not very many. Spider-Man still holds the record and X3 will NOT make a run at those type numbers.

Summer final winners will be...
1) Pirates of the Caribbean 2
2) X-Men Last Stand
3) Superman Returns

With NO film breaking the 300M domestic marker. Mark it down.

Headlines "X-men save the industry from its slump!"

Whatever you thought of the movie, Fantastic Four already grabbed that headline last year. FF's opening snapped a LONG streak of box office let downs and FF basked in the glory.