The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[Marvolo]

Star Wars: Episode IX was 6th in the Atom Tickets survey. It was 3rd in the Fandango survey, which is a slippage for anticipation for the Star Wars episodes because VIII and VII were 1st in their respective years. Rogue One was also 1st in anticipation a year before it came out and it finished 1st for the year of 2016. Solo was the 5th most anticipated in Fandango for 2018 and is going to finish 10th or out of the Top 10 once Aquaman and if anything else passes it.

Seems silly to rely on an "anticipation" poll when we are still 4 months from the release of the teaser. After the marketing and the final trailer is released in October if it's still 6th in some anticipation poll then there might be cause for concern for anyone that follows box office. It also seems silly to me to compare anticipation for a film that comes out in May and a film that comes out in December. Obviously anticipation will shift throughout the year as they see these films and the marketing material for these films.

Speaking for myself, I've liked all the Disney star wars films, and think they wipe the floor with the prequels. I will watch Episode 9 in theaters if I can, but my anticipation for Episode 9 is low key and will be until the teaser. It will ratchet up to 11 for a week or two in April while the discussion about the teaser is prolific then my anticipation will simmer down until more marketing material comes out. It will go back up to 11 when the trailer is released in October. I've got adult **** that distracts me most days and cant maintain peak anticipation for any film indefinitely. I've never voted in any "anticipation" poll, but if I had I would have picked Avengers because it comes out in May and I know more about the film. If I voted in the poll in June I'd pick Episode 9 because by that point I will have watched Avengers and will be looking forward to other things.

 

[Gothamsknight]

I've loved all the Disney star wars films and my hype for IX is through the roof.and it'll be even more when the teaser drops! Lots of people seem to want to somehow prove that interest in star wars has died down, but I don't think thats the case. Morvolo put it best, if you ask me.

And yes, I too think the Disney films wipe the floor with the prequels.

 

[scarlet-witch]

I think it crosses a billion. I'm not sure how these TLJ haters think, but it wouldn't throwing their money at IX so it out grosses TLJ be a message they'd want to send?

 

[scarlet-witch]

The vast majority of the vast fanbase did care about the backlash of TLJ, that's why they didn't show up for Solo, /QUOTE]

No, they didn't show up for Solo because no one asked for it and the trailers were underwhelming. Honestly, I don't see why TLJ gets blamed for that. Solo did that to itself.

 

[Gothamsknight]

I think it crosses a billion. I'm not sure how these TLJ haters think, but it wouldn't throwing their money at IX so it out grosses TLJ be a message they'd want to send?

Haters always claim they are gonna boycott something but never do. They ALL will be there next december. Every single last one of them

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[sueb1863]

I don't get why anybody would boycott Solo because of TLJ, either. They were made by completely different teams. Different characters, cast, director, etc. It had nothing to do with TLJ except they're both Star Wars movies.

That's like boycotting Avengers: Endgame because you didn't like Thor: Ragnarok.

I think Solo flopped because it wasn't a very good movie and the lead was miscast.

 

[jmc]

Haters always claim they are gonna boycott something but never do. They ALL will be there next december. Every single last one of them

I actually wouldn't be so sure of that this time around. The days of there being blind loyalists to the franchise are coming to an end, specifically because there's a dislike about the direction the series has gone. At a certain point in a mismanaged franchise people simply become indifferent to it, as has been evident in other franchises over the years. So, yeah, anybody thinking people are just going to show up because it's Star Wars are IMO grossly mistaken, and frankly, are ignoring recent history.

 

[Gothamsknight]

I think some people are really underestimating how curious people are for how this trilogy will end. Watch when that first trailer drops.

 

[jmc]

There are a lot, but there's also a significant number who don't care anymore as well. Justice League, Transformers, Pirates, just a handful of examples of what happens to a franchise when it goes off the rails, and anyone who says Star Wars is immune to a similar fate is not paying attention to history.

 

[Gothamsknight]

But my question is has star wars really gone off the rails? The last Jedi was divisive, sure, but a divisive movie doesn't mean the death of a franchise either.

 

[jmc]

But my question is has star wars really gone off the rails? The last Jedi was divisive, sure, but a divisive movie doesn't mean the death of a franchise either.

I guess we'll find out in about 11 months time. Solo flopping was not a good sign for the brand. I don't care what anyone says about it being just 5 months after TLJ, the fact that Solo opened so poorly should be the biggest eye opener for everyone. Then you've got the online film media which seems obsessed with defending TLJ and Lucasfilm for reasons I can't quite comprehend, writing god knows how many articles about how toxic or whatever nonsense for clicks, which does nothing but generate more animosity. As much as people want to believe everything is ok, there's a stench around this franchise now. It's becoming increasingly difficult to enjoy Star Wars for a lot of people. So yeah, I think there's the very real possibility that IX under performs significantly.

 

[Iceman]

Haters always claim they are gonna boycott something but never do. They ALL will be there next december. Every single last one of them

But Solo and JL did unbelievably bad numbers against their premise and the extent of their failures weren’t predicted by many ahead of time. I think there are more hardcore SW fans out there than Solo’s numbers suggest (the kind who are supposed to watch every SW film regardless). Otherwise it means SW is coasting by predominantly on GA goodwill (which won’t be loyal when quality drops). The other side of that being young and overseas fans don’t have the same loyalty to this franchise as the older guys in Western countries who grew up with the originals.

 

[sueb1863]

TLJ was the top-selling Blu-Ray last year.

Top-Selling Blu-ray Titles in the United States 2018 - The Numbers

It was #2 overall in combined sales:

Top-Selling Video Titles in the United States 2018 - The Numbers

So somebody's still interested in the franchise...

 

[jmc]

3.9 million units for TLJ, down from about 7.5 million for TFA. Batman v Superman sold about 3.5 million units, so it's hardly an indicator that unit sales will equate to box office performance for the next film.

 

[Gothamsknight]

I guess we'll find out in about 11 months time. Solo flopping was not a good sign for the brand. I don't care what anyone says about it being just 5 months after TLJ, the fact that Solo opened so poorly should be the biggest eye opener for everyone. Then you've got the online film media which seems obsessed with defending TLJ and Lucasfilm for reasons I can't quite comprehend, writing god knows how many articles about how toxic or whatever nonsense for clicks, which does nothing but generate more animosity. As much as people want to believe everything is ok, there's a stench around this franchise now. It's becoming increasingly difficult to enjoy Star Wars for a lot of people. So yeah, I think there's the very real possibility that IX under performs significantly.

I'm one of the ones who enjoyed the last Jedi (I prefer the force awakens), and I think toxic nature of star wars fans is absolutely real. All I have to do is find clickbait articles on those insulting Kathleen Kennedy to prove this, but I still believe those people, or at least a lot of them will be there to watch the final installment. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty confident.

 

[emc5466]

3.9 million units for TLJ, down from about 7.5 million for TFA. Batman v Superman sold about 3.5 million units, so it's hardly an indicator that unit sales will equate to box office performance for the next film.

Good point. I still think this movie will do fine, btw. A lot of it will depend on the marketing.

 

[jmc]

I'm one of the ones who enjoyed the last Jedi (I prefer the force awakens), and I think toxic nature of star wars fans is absolutely real. All I have to do is find clickbait articles on those insulting Kathleen Kennedy to prove this, but I still believe those people, or at least a lot of them will be there to watch the final installment. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty confident.

Toxicity is in every fan base, but this is being mixed in with people who have valid issues with where the franchise is going. I'm seeing too much of a similarity with the DCEU and Justice League to be as confident as you. History has a tendency to repeat itself.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

3.9 million units for TLJ, down from about 7.5 million for TFA. Batman v Superman sold about 3.5 million units, so it's hardly an indicator that unit sales will equate to box office performance for the next film.

Heck, TFA was over 8 million copies when the 2016 and 2017 numbers are combined. And other movies like Greatest Showman which were way less popular at the box office have sold about as many copies as TLJ according to The-Numbers.com. Solo has a better tickets to physical copies sold retention rate (similar to TFA's) than TLJ and RO did though having a low box office base to begin with probably helps with that.

 

[Lilbaz]

What are we waiting to see in the finale? Ren fight rey? Poe leads the rebellion to defeat the empire? Finn gets it on with whatshername? Nothing there that i can't wait for.

What films is it up against?

 

[I Am The Knight]

Jumanji again

 

[Tony Stark]

From that site, it's showing EP 8 sold roughly 600K more units but yet made $15M less than Infinity war in sales? I take it people were picking this up in the discount bins or something?

 

[Lilbaz]

Jumanji again

And masters of the universe which i have almost zero hopes for.

Wont be as much competition as this xmas so might do better than i'm expecting.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Stamina updates on the current domestic Top 10 movie releases (2015-2018):

 

[Silver Surfer]

What are we waiting to see in the finale? Ren fight rey? Poe leads the rebellion to defeat the empire? Finn gets it on with whatshername? Nothing there that i can't wait for.

That's the biggest problem, there's nothing really to get pumped up for. We're waiting for Rey to beat Kylo AGAIN? We already saw her whoop his behind in her debut lightsaber fight.

If they were setting her up to fight Snoke, or even better, a 2v2 fight with Luke/Rey VS Kylo/Snoke, we'd be losing our minds in anticipation.