The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[jmc]

You could have had Rey v Kylo, and Luke v Snoke, have Luke be mortally wounded , then finish off with Rey v Snoke as her final challenge to becoming a Jedi. Imagine the build up to that.....

 

[Gothamsknight]

so because it didn't go that way, there's nothing to get excited for? Weird logic. We literally have no idea whats gonna happen in IX.

 

[Lilbaz]

so because it didn't go that way, there's nothing to get excited for? Weird logic. We literally have no idea whats gonna happen in IX.

Not really. Just the way it's gone hasn't left us with any great anticipation for the next film. Worse the whole force needs to ballance has made the battle between light and dark pointless. Rey wins the force will spit out another baddie. Ren wins it will spit out another light side.
We going to defeat the empire again yet not really defeat them as they will come back in the future?
The film has left us basically in the same position as when the ot started. Yay.
Really don't care if any of the characters live or die. Don't care who wins.
Was the republic any better than the empire? Those child slaves were there under their watch and they didn't do anything.

 

[jmc]

Having no idea what's going to happen isn't a good thing because there's nothing to anticipate, and Star Wars as a franchise is built on anticipation. It's got little to do with not getting ones way, it's about not being given anything to lure someone back in.

 

[Karelia]

I watched the original Star Wars trilogy on VHS as a kid so many times that the VHS tapes started to look a little fuzzy. I was 8 when Episode I released in theaters, I can't tell you how excited for the film I was. Such a good time for me.

Force Awakens/Rogue One were good films to me, but I'd be lying if I said TLJ didn't crush my SW fandom into a million pieces. I hate that I'm not excited for SW films right now. I really hope this trailer pulls me in. Because I don't like not feeling hyper for new SW films. It's a bummer for me.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I watched the original Star Wars trilogy on VHS as a kid so many times that the VHS tapes started to look a little fuzzy. I was 8 when Episode I released in theaters, I can't tell you how excited for the film I was. Such a good time for me.

Force Awakens/Rogue One were good films to me, but I'd be lying if I said TLJ didn't crush my SW fandom into a million pieces. I hate that I'm not excited for SW films right now. I really hope this trailer pulls me in. Because I don't like not feeling hyper for new SW films. It's a bummer for me.

I hear you man, at this point I am more excited about all 3 MCU movies than I am SW9. That is almost unfathomable to me, as Star Wars is my all-time favorite piece of fiction.

TLJ was as if someone kicked my SW fandom in the balls, ran it over with a truck, reversed the truck over it again, only to come out of the truck to kick it in the balls again.

 

[Karelia]

It feels like a sin for me, tbh. To be more excited for other films over Star Wars is just sad. Sorry for going off topic.

 

[Smurphftw]

That first trailer that drops is going to be very important. It needs to give people something to anticipate/get excited about/look forward to.

My curiosity about Ep IX is extremely high. Much higher than my excitement if that makes sense. I'm just extremely curious about the direction Abrams is going to go and how much (if anything) he is going to retcon or "fix"

 

[Lilbaz]

That first trailer that drops is going to be very important. It needs to give people something to anticipate/get excited about/look forward to.

My curiosity about Ep IX is extremely high. Much higher than my excitement if that makes sense. I'm just extremely curious about the direction Abrams is going to go and how much (if anything) he is going to retcon or "fix"

I think trying to retcon or fix would be a mistake. Plenty of people liked tlj as it was (not me) they just need to concentrate on making the best film they can.
This trilogy has lost me, really not that interested now. But there will be other star wars films and series that i might be excited for.

 

[GREEN =w= DAY]

It feels like a sin for me, tbh. To be more excited for other films over Star Wars is just sad. Sorry for going off topic.

I know the feeling

2015, 2016, and 2017 my most anticipated movies for those years were Star Wars films (TFA, Rogue One, & TLJ)

After TLJ though, my anticipation and interest for Star Wars died down. There's about 5 other movies coming out this year and I am more looking forward to than Episode 9. bad place, I may not even watch Episode 9 opening weekend. Rather wait to hear feedback before giving Disney anymore of my money

 

[Mr. Peanut]

I think it crosses a billion. I'm not sure how these TLJ haters think, but it wouldn't throwing their money at IX so it out grosses TLJ be a message they'd want to send?

The only message I want to send Disney is that I'm done with their product unless they bring Luke back and give him a decent-sized role that does the character justice. When the movie comes out I'll look up spoilers to see how they handled Luke. If they do something cool with him, I'll go see the movie. But if all we get is a crappy cameo, I won't bother watching the movie until it comes out on netflix.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The MPAA report for 2018 released recently (dated this month).

In 2018, overall spending on home entertainment (content released digitally and on disc) in the United States increased to $23.3 billion, up 12 percent compared to 2017. Spending on digital home entertainment increased by 24 percent compared to 2017, while spending on physical entertainment decreased by 15 percent. Transactional spending continues to decrease (down 5% from 2017), while subscription continues to increase (up 28% from 2017).

Three quarters (75%) of the U.S./Canada population aged two or older, or 263 million people, went to a movie at the cinema at least once in 2018 ("moviegoer"), similar to 2017. The typical moviegoer bought 5.0 tickets per year in 2018, up from 4.7 tickets in 2017.

The 2018 MPAA report also shows the digital download vs. physical product market participation demographics. The digital marketplace skews younger and less white (58% non-hispanic white, 52% 18-39 years old) than the physical market does (64% non-hispanic white, 43% 18-39 years old).

Some info includes (this is CY calendar year and not everything is released early in the year like SW:TLJ was in March):

2018 Top 25 U.S. DVD/Blu-ray Sales (The-Numbers.com)

1) Black Panther
2) The Greatest Showman
3) Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4) Coco
5) Avengers: Infinity War
6) Incredibles 2
7) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
8) Deadpool 2
9) Thor: Ragnarok
10) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
11) Justice League
12) It
13) Solo: A Star Wars Story

2018 Top 25 U.S. Electronic Sell Through (Digital Downloads) (ComScore)
1) Infinity War
2) Black Panther
3) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
4) Deadpool 2
5) Thor: Ragnarok
6) Justice League
7) Star Wars: The Last Jedi
8) The Greatest Showman
9) Incredibles 2
10) Coco
11) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
12) Ready Player One
13) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Rogue One, also an early in year March release, was #3 for 2017.

Some prior years:
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013

 

[Warlock]

The MPAA report for 2018 released recently (dated this month).





Some info includes (this is CY calendar year and not everything is released early in the year like SW:TLJ was):





Some prior years:
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013

Wow, that is really telling. Thank you for the information Magnar, I appreciate your work.

 

[Lobo]

That first trailer that drops is going to be very important. It needs to give people something to anticipate/get excited about/look forward to.

My curiosity about Ep IX is extremely high. Much higher than my excitement if that makes sense. I'm just extremely curious about the direction Abrams is going to go and how much (if anything) he is going to retcon or "fix"

I am in the same boat far more curious than excited. The trailer is going to be a HUGE deal. But I wont lie, I will still be seeing the film opening weekend. I have a feeling that JJ is going to make it fan service friendly. Basically the Revenge of the Sith of the sequel trilogy. What I mean by that is that I believe it will be much superior to the other two.

@Karelia Love your avatar

 

[Smurphftw]

I am in the same boat far more curious than excited. The trailer is going to be a HUGE deal. But I wont lie, I will still be seeing the film opening weekend. I have a feeling that JJ is going to make it fan service friendly. Basically the Revenge of the Sith of the sequel trilogy. What I mean by that is that I believe it will be much superior to the other two.

@Karelia Love your avatar

All this seems very prophetic now that the trailer had dropped. I think you really nailed it.

I'm a little surprised this thread hasn't had renewed interest post trailer. After seeing it I'm pretty optimistic about it's box office performance now. I voted 1.5 billion.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I voted a result as similar to the returns of TLJ, I still stand by that, but I am pleased the response to the trailer has been on the whole, very positive.

 

[BatLobster]

Yeah, this movie is going to be huge lol. The trailer has created a buzz, no doubt about it.

Every single time someone has told me "but there's no reason to care about Episode IX maaaan", I have said the movie is just one great teaser away from getting people hyped. And if there is anything the ST has showed us it's that they sure do know how to market these films and make a damn good trailer.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

‘The Lion King’ Trailer Sets Disney Record for Most Views in 24 Hours (November 24, 2018)

Anticipation for Disney’s rollout of live action adaptations can sometimes be lukewarm, but that’s clearly not the case with “The Lion King.”

The teaser trailer for the upcoming “live action” feature — which is really just photoreal animation — accumulated 224.6 million views globally in its first 24 hours, becoming Disney’s most watched trailer in a day. Across all studios, it’s the second most watched teaser, behind that of “Avengers: Infinity War,” which tallied 238 million views.

'Avengers: Endgame' teaser smashes record for most views in 24 hours

All told, the two-and-a-half minute teaser racked up a mind-boggling 283 million views in just a day across YouTube, Facebook and Twitter from Marvel's tabulation. The teaser also set the record for most mentions in a Twitter conversation, featuring 589,000 conversations on Twitter in just one day.

The record was previously held by 'Avengers: Infinity War', which had 230 million views inside 24 hours. Meanwhile, the teaser for the live-action version of 'The Lion King' now sits in third place with 224.6 million views.

Star Wars teasers and trailers just don't get this level of buzz. It's probably only worth comparing Star Wars vs. Star Wars if anything.

 

[writer0327]

I think the teaser trailer bumped up the potential box office a little, but I think the Aug/Sep timeframe trailer will be the best indicator of whether this will go above TLJ in the box office.

 

[BatLobster]

‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Teaser Clocked 111M Views In First 24 Hours – Deadline

While it's still not at the level of Endgame and Lion King, it's 20 million more than TLJ did and more than double what TFA did in 24 hours with their respective teaser launches.

The hype is strong with this one.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Huh. TLJ teaser crushed the TFA November teaser in views and shares yet ultimately fell $700M against it.Though it's still better to be up than down. Probably says more about growth across the board on these platforms.

April teaser vs. April teaser would make a better comp though Deadline went with the November one. 'The majority of Star Wars fans watched the teaser with Celebration live streams' is a dubious claim I think.

Google Trends shows Star Wars search traffic just under TLJ's at this same point (April) on the U.S./Canada side and down a few points on the Worldwide side (April not quite yet over).

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2013-01-01 2019-04-25&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F06mmr

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2013-01-01 2019-04-25&q=/m/06mmr

 

[BatLobster]

Obviously word of mouth and reviews will be a factor in how it ultimately performs, but just based on the level of general buzz and speculation the trailer has generated, I've got a good feeling about it. Plus the fact that they are leaning in on the "end of the saga" marketing hook will pay off big, I suspect.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this follow suit with the previous two SW trilogies box office-wise. First one is the runaway global sensation, second one takes a dip, third one finishes strong while not reaching the levels of the first one.

 

[spiderman2]

So while its still a good amount of time before the movie comes out so I dont really known what this means but still interesting. ‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Teaser Clocked 111M Views In First 24 Hours – Deadline

I would expect lower numbers after the very Mixed/bad fan reception of TLJ and with TFA being considered like way better by most people. Maybe this is a sing of just the fact that 9 is the last part of the trilogy will get even a lot of people who didn't like TLJ to come back because they want to see how it ends.

 

[BatLobster]

I would expect lower numbers after the very Mixed/bad fan reception of TLJ and with TFA being considered like way better by most people. Maybe this is a sing of just the fact that 9 is the last part of the trilogy will get even a lot of people who didn't like TLJ to come back because they want to see how it ends.

I've felt since TLJ came out that the vast majority of the fans that have been screaming "I'm done with Star Wars, I'm not excited, won't see IX in theaters etc." are bluffing and will cave when push comes to shove.

And the folks who think they are engaged in some widespread boycott that will cause the movie to flop...well...lol

 

[samsnee]

It will be interesting to see how opening weekend performs. No way it beats Endgame domestic but I wonder if it will even open at $200M domestically (not that it’s a failure if it doesn’t).

I’ve noticed they are trying to market this as the end of the Skywalker saga, similar to what they did with Endgame. Except they don’t have the original trio front and center like they did with Endgame and the original 6.