The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[dhandler01]

It is problematic for Di$ney and denying it is foolish and ranks up there with saying WB wasnt in trouble when DC films like BvS were making $800 million. It isnt about the number, it is about the decline in profits, the decline in tickets sold and the overall drop in hype. This film underperformed in a major way and the proof is in the spin Di$ney put out along with the trades. They were not expecting it to lose $100+ million from the Domestic total of TLJ (with roughly the same budget) especially when they brought back JJ to make a crowdpleaser.

I guarantee you Di$ney is not smiling ear to ear. If you had told them the finale to the Skywalker Saga would have trouble beating out Rogue One (or even an R rated Joker film that didnt release in China) they would have never said that was ok. They have mismanaged Star Wars since TFA.

 

[Iceman]

A 40+ year old franchise that many say is struggling gets a $1B movie and everyone thinks this is problematic for Disney. Disney has to be smiling ear to ear. After all the chaos and drama, SW looks to be just fine. People don't realize how strong the SW brand is. As long as they keep building their fanbase with new material and new characters, they'll be just fine.

How did no one manage to predict this box office though? Even the anti-Disney crowd who were just trying to dump on the film ahead of time predicted numbers much higher. Surely someone, be they professional box analyst, fan or troll, someone somewhere should be getting close.

 

[dataSlave]

TROS = TLJ -2.3% Week 1
TROS = TLJ -24.3% Week 2
TROS = TLJ -45.3% Week 3
TROS = TLJ -34.4% Week 4
TROS = TLJ -27.8% Week 5 (based on official estimates for the 4-day holiday weekend and my projections for the next 3 days after)

If that -27.8% were to be locked for the remainder (which it won't be just like the domestic/foreign split comparisons), TROS would make another $16.2M for Week 6 to the finish and finish at $512.5M domestic. But the comparison wobbles from week to week as seen above and I can't account for an x factor like a theater expansion which would throw stuff off even more. If the difference continues to decrease the total will go up, if the difference increases the total goes down. If the foreign share of the split gets bigger the higher the final global total goes up, and vice versa.

TRoS hasn't won a day head to head vs RO since Day 9. It opened bigger which is why the cume stayed ahead of RO until Day 25. But the finale of the ST being continuously below the daily BO of a spin off movie starting before WE#2 is even over can't be what Disney wanted or planned for.

Movie Comparison: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) vs. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)

IMHO nothing has been the same since TLJ.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

How did no one manage to predict this box office though? Even the anti-Disney crowd who were just trying to dump on the film ahead of time predicted numbers much higher. Surely someone, be they professional box analyst, fan or troll, someone somewhere should be getting close.

The plurality on this forum accurately voted for $500M-$600M domestic and $1B-$1.2B global at least, IIRC even before the movie came out, myself included. Just looking at the Google Trends search average for SW over the past year (especially since teaser dropped signifying marketing start) or two or the teaser and trailer views total on Youtube pointed in this direction.

 

[Iceman]

The plurality on this forum accurately voted for $500M-$600M domestic and $1B-$1.2B global at least, IIRC even before the movie came out, myself included. Just looking at the Google Trends search average for SW over the past year (especially since teaser dropped signifying marketing start) or two or the teaser and trailer views total on Youtube pointed in this direction.

I meant before things started going wrong with TLJ and Solo. I can see the poll lol. You would have been laughed out of town for suggesting this would make these kinds of numbers after Rogue One came out. Even people who were banned from forums and obviously trolling didn't say numbers like these. I mean it sounds impossible going from $1B for a spinoff to $1B for the final Episode film!

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Ah, well, yeah. Maybe going back TFA's time. "Hey would you guess the final installment would account for half the gross of the first installment especially when adjusted for higher ticket prices?"

 

[writer0327]

With all the backlash surrounding the franchise, the zillions of negative YouTube videos and open boycotts trending on Twitter, to have this film come out and still make $1B speaks volumes for the health of the franchise. It appears there is a loyal enough fanbase that will plunk down their money to support the franchise. Sure there was money left on the table, no question about it. However that doesn't detract from how much money this still made, which by any standard measure is success.

 

[Iceman]

Ah, well, yeah. Maybe going back TFA's time. "Hey would you guess the final installment would account for half the gross of the first installment especially when adjusted for higher ticket prices?"

After Rogue One I expected other spinoffs to make less as that was the first one out of the gate after TFA. $700-800m each with some smaller ones making $500-600m. As for Episode films before any news I would have said TLJ 1.5-1.6 and TROS 1.7-1.8. Even after TLJ and Solo I was wrongly optimistic that there would be more of a bounce-back to at least over TLJ levels for this one.

 

[Iceman]

With all the backlash surrounding the franchise, the zillions of negative YouTube videos and open boycotts trending on Twitter, to have this film come out and still make $1B speaks volumes for the health of the franchise. It appears there is a loyal enough fanbase that will plunk down their money to support the franchise. Sure there was money left on the table, no question about it. However that doesn't detract from how much money this still made, which by any standard measure is success.

There was also that "Boycott Star Wars" during TFA (due to the diverse leading cast) that we all had a good laugh at as it made off with record numbers. I get what you're saying - I just don't think the sum total of all that would drag SW down quite to this level - ie 9th place for the year and 6-700m below Jurassic World/500m behind Furious 7. Core SW films should be making way more than CBM spinoffs like Aquaman, Joker, Cap Marvel, FFH etc. SW has a loyal fanbase for sure, but usually millions of casual viewers are also getting involved in what should be the biggest cinematic event of the year, along with fans coming back for countless repeat viewings.

 

[dhandler01]

With all the backlash surrounding the franchise, the zillions of negative YouTube videos and open boycotts trending on Twitter, to have this film come out and still make $1B speaks volumes for the health of the franchise. It appears there is a loyal enough fanbase that will plunk down their money to support the franchise. Sure there was money left on the table, no question about it. However that doesn't detract from how much money this still made, which by any standard measure is success.

Do you work for Deadline? Even they dont spin this much.

If the fanbase was healthy this film would have crushed. It had like 2 weeks of holiday that should have had the healthy fanbase seeing the film multiple times. (like they used to...like comic fans tend to) That didnt happen as the drops proved week to week. If the fanbase was healthy as you say it would be growing. Numbers proved that kids werent seeing the film (as proven by the decline in merch since Di$ney took over) nor were females. If the fanbase was healthy, the numbers of each movies wouldnt either be going down or struggling to stay the same. Healthy fanbases dont have those issues.

The truth is the fanbase is stagnant...and it is aging out of the range Di$ney needs for these movies to be successful. In the States you cant just make movies in the hopes that 40+ year old men will go. Not when your films cost $250-300 million dollars. Star Wars is like comic books. The truth is very few people, even in the Golden Age of Comic Films, read comic books anymore except the die hards most of whom have been reading them for years. New fans are almost non-existent (or at best offset those that jump off) and sales chart proves that every month. We can get into the reasons another time but comics are not healthy either. (they are safe cause they are corporate and the IPs themselves are worth a ton for movies and merch) Star Wars doesnt seem to have that anymore. Hell outside of Baby Yoda not one new character coming out of the Di$ney Wars will matter in 10 years. None of them connected and by the end the characters had been made laughable or so 2 dimensional they didnt matter. And I am saying that as someone who liked the film! The ST, much like the PT (which made LFL tons of cash) will be looked on as a pretty big meh.

If Di$ney is grinning ear to ear, then they arent the great business people everyone gives them credit for.

 

[dhandler01]

There was also that "Boycott Star Wars" during TFA (due to the diverse leading cast) that we all had a good laugh at as it made off with record numbers. I get what you're saying - I just don't think the sum total of all that would drag SW down quite to this level - ie 9th place for the year and 6-700m below Jurassic World/500m behind Furious 7. Core SW films should be making way more than CBM spinoffs like Aquaman, Joker, Cap Marvel, FFH etc. SW has a loyal fanbase for sure, but usually millions of casual viewers are also getting involved in what should be the biggest cinematic event of the year, along with fans coming back for countless repeat viewings.

This. Even more, there are films that decline here but grow abroad and Star Wars isnt doing that either. I mean it is bad enough it is going to make $100+ million less here...but it is going to lose another $200 million abroad compared to TLJ. (which made over $700 million internationally) This despite having a super favorable release schedule. Another sign this franchise isnt healthy.

The ridiculous budgets didnt help either. And Di$ney interfering a lot got in the way as well. Changing directors on a whim, massive course corrections, inflated budget, changing stories last minute...I mean they couldnt have copied the early DCEU more if they tried.

 

[writer0327]

There was also that "Boycott Star Wars" during TFA (due to the diverse leading cast) that we all had a good laugh at as it made off with record numbers. I get what you're saying - I just don't think the sum total of all that would drag SW down quite to this level - ie 9th place for the year and 6-700m below Jurassic World/500m behind Furious 7. Core SW films should be making way more than CBM spinoffs like Aquaman, Joker, Cap Marvel, FFH etc. SW has a loyal fanbase for sure, but usually millions of casual viewers are also getting involved in what should be the biggest cinematic event of the year, along with fans coming back for countless repeat viewings.

I hit on this a couple of years ago, but I do believe that SW films are somewhat "event" films, and by that I mean they are rare, special and not meant to be popcorn, disposable entertainment, like a lot of MCU films are. I think the idea is that Marvel can crank out 3 films a year and make all this bank, so SW should be able to do the same. But prior to Disney SW movies were always an event. From 1977 until 2015, 38 years - 6 films. And each film within the two trilogies were spaced 3 years apart. There's a certain level of anticipation that builds up from scheduling your series like that, but now when you're dropping SW films every year, you lose a bit of that anticipation and build up. Now it feels less like an event and more like another movie in a film series. That is the MCU formula, however the MCU had to build up to that. If Disney wants to run the same formula through the SW franchise it also has to build it up that way, but that's not how SW was built.

 

[writer0327]

Do you work for Deadline? Even they dont spin this much.

If the fanbase was healthy this film would have crushed. It had like 2 weeks of holiday that should have had the healthy fanbase seeing the film multiple times. (like they used to...like comic fans tend to) That didnt happen as the drops proved week to week. If the fanbase was healthy as you say it would be growing. Numbers proved that kids werent seeing the film (as proven by the decline in merch since Di$ney took over) nor were females. If the fanbase was healthy, the numbers of each movies wouldnt either be going down or struggling to stay the same. Healthy fanbases dont have those issues.

The truth is the fanbase is stagnant...and it is aging out of the range Di$ney needs for these movies to be successful. In the States you cant just make movies in the hopes that 40+ year old men will go. Not when your films cost $250-300 million dollars. Star Wars is like comic books. The truth is very few people, even in the Golden Age of Comic Films, read comic books anymore except the die hards most of whom have been reading them for years. New fans are almost non-existent (or at best offset those that jump off) and sales chart proves that every month. We can get into the reasons another time but comics are not healthy either. (they are safe cause they are corporate and the IPs themselves are worth a ton for movies and merch) Star Wars doesnt seem to have that anymore. Hell outside of Baby Yoda not one new character coming out of the Di$ney Wars will matter in 10 years. None of them connected and by the end the characters had been made laughable or so 2 dimensional they didnt matter. And I am saying that as someone who liked the film! The ST, much like the PT (which made LFL tons of cash) will be looked on as a pretty big meh.

If Di$ney is grinning ear to ear, then they arent the great business people everyone gives them credit for.

Okay put it this way, Disney knows they'll get a positive return on their investment. Now it's a matter of how much and how often do they want to invest in this franchise. I believe they are learning that SW can't crank out a film a year and expect each of them to break $2B or even $1.5B, but $1B is certainly doable. Also, and I can't prove this of course, but I'd wager that this box office, especially in the states, is more reflective of the lack of interest by the GA and not the SW fanbase. The fans came out, the regular GA didn't. So from that, I'm saying that SW fans are still pretty loyal to the franchise. And $500M from the states is still good enough for #3 domestically, only behind Endgame and TLK. Many years, TROS would have been #1 domestically.

In regards to the chase for big box office numbers to prove the worth and health of the franchise, the real problem is the international audience (mainly China) which has never been that enamored with the franchise. Domestically, SW is doing great, but the rest of the world doesn't care. How do you fix that? Do they even try to, or accept it for what it is.

So here's the thing, here's how I see the problem for Disney (which is really more of a problem for SW fans more so than Disney...) I believe a good chunk of the 40+ OT crowd certainly is dissatisfied and they are fine with never seeing another SW film now that the Skywalker saga is over. The question is can LFL revamp the franchise and attract newer fans into their teens, twenties? Can they find a new Han, Luke, and Leia to capture the imagination of that age group, as Marvel did with Thor, Cap, and Stark? They can, but how true will they remain to the SW universe, or will they resort to apeing other current success stories like Marvel?

 

[Stark Bauer]

Okay put it this way, Disney knows they'll get a positive return on their investment. Now it's a matter of how much and how often do they want to invest in this franchise. I believe they are learning that SW can't crank out a film a year and expect each of them to break $2B or even $1.5B, but $1B is certainly doable. Also, and I can't prove this of course, but I'd wager that this box office, especially in the states, is more reflective of the lack of interest by the GA and not the SW fanbase. The fans came out, the regular GA didn't. So from that, I'm saying that SW fans are still pretty loyal to the franchise. And $500M from the states is still good enough for #3 domestically, only behind Endgame and TLK. Many years, TROS would have been #1 domestically.

In regards to the chase for big box office numbers to prove the worth and health of the franchise, the real problem is the international audience (mainly China) which has never been that enamored with the franchise. Domestically, SW is doing great, but the rest of the world doesn't care. How do you fix that? Do they even try to, or accept it for what it is.

So here's the thing, here's how I see the problem for Disney (which is really more of a problem for SW fans more so than Disney...) I believe a good chunk of the 40+ OT crowd certainly is dissatisfied and they are fine with never seeing another SW film now that the Skywalker saga is over. The question is can LFL revamp the franchise and attract newer fans into their teens, twenties? Can they find a new Han, Luke, and Leia to capture the imagination of that age group, as Marvel did with Thor, Cap, and Stark? They can, but how true will they remain to the SW universe, or will they resort to apeing other current success stories like Marvel?

I’m an OT fan and I can’t wait for a new SW trilogy under the supervision of anyone but KK (preferably Favreau or Filoni)..She is toxic for this franchise.

 

[writer0327]

I’m an OT fan and I can’t wait for a new SW trilogy under the supervision of anyone but KK (preferably Favreau or Filoni)..She is toxic for this franchise.

Same here and I don't necessarily think KK is a bad producer, just has too much negative press and dropped the ball with her director decisions.

 

[dhandler01]

I think KK is good at some franchises but she has no clue what makes Star Wars great.

 

[Donner]

I think KK is good at some franchises but she has no clue what makes Star Wars great.

Neither do the writers, apparently.

 

[Iceman]

I hit on this a couple of years ago, but I do believe that SW films are somewhat "event" films, and by that I mean they are rare, special and not meant to be popcorn, disposable entertainment, like a lot of MCU films are. I think the idea is that Marvel can crank out 3 films a year and make all this bank, so SW should be able to do the same. But prior to Disney SW movies were always an event. From 1977 until 2015, 38 years - 6 films. And each film within the two trilogies were spaced 3 years apart. There's a certain level of anticipation that builds up from scheduling your series like that, but now when you're dropping SW films every year, you lose a bit of that anticipation and build up. Now it feels less like an event and more like another movie in a film series. That is the MCU formula, however the MCU had to build up to that. If Disney wants to run the same formula through the SW franchise it also has to build it up that way, but that's not how SW was built.

Aside from other criticisms, I think the new trilogy was a bit unambitious in terms of world building given that it is supposed to be the leading space sci-fi fantasy epic. More alien characters and alien races for eg would allow for many more possibilities and to expand the universe so that it became more natural for multiple properties to live within it. It can still be done if they start doing this in the post-TROS era.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Aside from other criticisms, I think the new trilogy was a bit unambitious in terms of world building given that it is supposed to be the leading space sci-fi fantasy epic. More alien characters and alien races for eg would allow for many more possibilities and to expand the universe so that it became more natural for multiple properties to live within it. It can still be done if they start doing this in the post-TROS era.

i disagree. They don’t need to add more alien races and characters...they already tried that and failed. The audience didn’t seem to care and neither did I. Instead write characters worth giving a damn about. More like Din Djarin, IG11, KS2O and less like Finn and Rose Tico and Zori Bliss. The SW universe is so rich they can literally write a series on the Hutts

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[Mr. Peanut]

i disagree. They don’t need to add more alien races and characters...they already tried that and failed. The audience didn’t seem to care and neither did I.

In what universe did any of the Disney films try adding more alien races and characters? Aliens are at an all time low in the Star Wars movies.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

A bit better hold than I expected, not that it means much at this point.

 

[Stark Bauer]

In what universe did any of the Disney films try adding more alien races and characters? Aliens are at an all time low in the Star Wars movies.

I guess you didn’t see any of the sequel trilogy

tell me what OT or PT species Moz Kanata, General Snoke and Babu Freaky are.

The Mandalorian however only made the already established species greater. The Jawas’ stock as well as IG robots have skyrocketed DONT get me started on Yodas species

 

[SomeOldGuy]