The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

Interesting, so they already think it will perform similarly to TLJ and not nearly TFA. It will be interesting to see how these projections age, ala Solo.

Oh, that would be a disaster...

 

[Warlock]

Oh, that would be a disaster...

I'm guessing anything below TLJ would be seen by Disney as a less than satisfactory outcome. Especially with the reshoots increasing the costs.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm guessing anything below TLJ would be seen by Disney as a less than satisfactory outcome. Especially with the reshoots increasing the costs.

We should check the alt-right sources you posted for what would be considered a success.

 

[Warlock]

We should check the alt-right sources you posted for what would be considered a success.

I thought they were incels? Are they russians too? What about nazis? Or maybe all three, the horror. Or, do you just like using ad hominims when you disagree with someone's opinion.

 

[VSG]

What reshoots? There has not been anything special about them XD

 

[Gothamsknight]

I thought they were incels? Are they russians too? What about nazis? Or maybe all three, the horror. Or, do you just like using ad hominims when you disagree with someone's opinion.

It's fact that they are alt right incels. When someone is upset that a film had minorities or a female lead, and then try their best to make the film flop (which they won't succeed at), they are known as alt right trolls. Yes, your sources are alt right incels frustrated that they can't get a woman.

 

[Warlock]

It's fact that they are alt right incels. When someone is upset that a film had minorities or a female lead, and then try their best to make the film flop (which they won't succeed at), they are known as alt right trolls. Yes, your sources are alt right incels frustrated that they can't get a woman.

You mean misogynistic.

 

[Gothamsknight]

You mean misogynistic.

There's no real difference tbh

 

[8ulk87]

US
$235 mil OW.
$675 mil total.

OS
$975 mil total.

WW
$1650 mil total.

Wont beat The Lion King which sits at $1652 mil WW and has maybe a couple of millions left to add.

 

[Warlock]

US
$235 mil OW.
$675 mil total.

OS
$975 mil total.

WW
$1650 mil total.

Wont beat The Lion King which sits at $1652 mil WW and has maybe a couple of millions left to add.

$235m is a huge opening weekend, in between Ep 7 and 8, which would make it the 4th biggest opening weekend in the US, ever.

I agree that it is doubtful it will beat the Lion King worldwide, although it might beat it domestically.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's fact that they are alt right incels. When someone is upset that a film had minorities or a female lead, and then try their best to make the film flop (which they won't succeed at), they are known as alt right trolls. Yes, your sources are alt right incels frustrated that they can't get a woman.

 

[Sithborg]

Long Range Tracking: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bombshell, and Cats - Boxoffice

They think $200M opening and $550M floor and $750M ceiling.

They overestimated TLJ by $120M. Were close on the opening, overestimated the multiplier though TLJ probably did leave some money on the table with its reception.

Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' & 'Ferdinand' - Boxoffice

Solo was overestimated even more:

Long Range Tracking: 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' - Boxoffice

Long range forecasting is good at opening weekends. Not so good for legs.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Box Office Pro's SW long range tracking history:

Sources:
BoxOffice® — Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
Long Range Forecast: ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,’ ‘Collateral Beauty’ & ‘The Space Between Us’
Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' & 'Ferdinand' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bombshell, and Cats - Boxoffice

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Presales don't carry as far for Star Wars (don't multiply out as highly) so comparing it directly to other non-SW movies is a bit of a fool's errand.

Deadline: "‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Seeing $205M+ Opening: Here’s Why" (November 27, 2019)
Deadline: "We’ve been hearing for quite some time from exhibitors and distribution sources that advance ticket sales are strong, but not overly robust for Disney/Lucasfilm’s finale Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, meaning in the way that they were for 2015’s Force Awakens ($247.9M) and 2017’s Last Jedi ($220M)." (November 27, 2019)
Deadline: "As of 8AM, one tracking firm says $175M, but that seems low." (November 27, 2019)

Deadline made the mistake of thinking Solo would open $170+M (four day) because its source probably made the mistake of comparing its presales to other non-SW movies and thinking it would multiply out the same when that just doesn't happen.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Variety - ‘Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker’ Could Score Massive $200 Million Opening Weekend

Given demand for the Skywalker saga’s epic conclusion, Disney and Lucasfilm’s sci-fi space opera is on pace for a start between $175 million and $200 million, according to early tracking. While that figure won’t come close to dethroning “Avengers: Endgame” and its historic $357 million launch, it would still rank among the best domestic debuts of all time.

 

[spiderman2]

I miss read that and thought it said 250 at first. I am not really sure what to think going into this. I think TLJ pissed of a lot of people and i think some people will not see it now but i also think some people that were pissed of will still see it because its the end of the trilogy and they will want to know how it ends. I think it will have better legs then TLJ has i think it will be more crowed pleasing. Maybe it will make like in the middle of TFA and TLJ WW when its all said and done like 1.6 billion or something. The 175 million OW maybe that is Disney trying to low by it or something. Its crazy just how much end game made on its OW i wonder how long before another movie even makes 300 on OW.

 

[psylockolussus]

It should at least outgross Solo and The Clone Wars.

 

[harlequinade]

Ouutgrossing Solo isn't much of a win, most big films do

 

[Smurphftw]

I miss read that and thought it said 250 at first. I am not really sure what to think going into this. I think TLJ pissed of a lot of people and i think some people will not see it now but i also think some people that were pissed of will still see it because its the end of the trilogy and they will want to know how it ends. I think it will have better legs then TLJ has i think it will be more crowed pleasing. Maybe it will make like in the middle of TFA and TLJ WW when its all said and done like 1.6 billion or something. The 175 million OW maybe that is Disney trying to low by it or something. Its crazy just how much end game made on its OW i wonder how long before another movie even makes 300 on OW.

1.6 billion is right about where I'm at right now.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Probably the last one I'll bother doing for the month.

 

[spiderman2]

Box Office Pro's SW long range tracking history:

Sources:
BoxOffice® — Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
Long Range Forecast: ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,’ ‘Collateral Beauty’ & ‘The Space Between Us’
Long Range Forecast: 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' & 'Ferdinand' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' - Boxoffice
Long Range Tracking: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Bombshell, and Cats - Boxoffice

Crazy how far off they where with solo.

 

[Iceman]

I think not beating TLJ would be disappointing. I expect it to be somewhere between TLJ and TFA (not exactly a bold claim as that is a big old spread haha).

 

[spiderman2]

IF TLJ had the same kind of reception has TFA and then rise got similar reception to i think this movie could do like avengers end game like numbers but TLJ hurt things a lot.

 

[spiderman2]

So i have not seen a update tracking for several weeks now i would think there would be a update one more time in the next few days before the movie comes out.

Looking at this trilogy TFA made about 248 million OW and would end at around 936.662. OS it made around 1.13156 billion and ww made about 2.068 billion. The last jedi on the other had did 220 OW and ended at 620.181 and OS 712.358 million and ww 1.332 billion. I am going to guess that this movie does about the same OW has TLJ but has much better legs. I am going to say it does like middle for both os, usa and ww. So that would mean about 778 USA and about 912 os for WW of about 1.690 billion.