The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[dhandler01]

I dont think those are at best has even if OS numbers end up a little lower i think the 500 DOM is at worst.



Its not even that but all it takes is one good movie to win people back. TFA most people loved and if TLJ and TROSW were even considered close to has good has TFA they would have made a lot more money. People were pretty againts batman before begings and even though it wasnt a crazy boxoffice sucess its a big reason dark Knight went on to explode.

TFA people loved because it was ANH ripoff coming off the prequels. (myself included) It was a return to form, without Lucas trying to overdue it. There was also a 10 year gap between films. Part of Star Wars' charm was there wasnt a ton of films. Yeah there were books and comics but honestly it was the lack of media that made it legendary. (that and it being on TV like every weekend in the 80s/90s) As more and more gets added, the more watered down it gets and the more it loses its appeal. It isnt the event it used to be, because we know another is coming out in a year or two so we can try again then.

I like this film, but I wont see it again (unless one of my friends that refused to see it wants to) and I wont buy it. Same with TFA and TLJ. All single viewings with no further watching. Christ I saw AOTC in the theaters twice and that film sucked. The Di$ney Star Wars Universe is just kind of "meh". There is really no point to it, there is nothing to really grab on to and fall in love with (the characters blow because not one director knew what to do with them...like what point did Finn have to be there? Why should we care about Poe?) it is just "Hey look, these guys are flying in the ship you know from your childhood and that person has a cool lightsaber!! It is all nostalgia and fan service which is fine, I loved it for that, but there is no actual there there. That is why BO returns keep dropping.

Star Wars isnt Marvel...and until Di$ney starts to understand that they are going to have issues with the franchise.

 

[JOE]

I like the direction they're going with the Mandalorian. I haven't seen episode 8 yet, but the show has been spectacular so far. If they keep these coming and throw a SW film at us every 3 years instead of 2 we should be good to go. No more rushing, and they have to have a plan for the entire trilogy from the get go.

 

[Limonade]

I like the direction they're going with the Mandalorian. I haven't seen episode 8 yet, but the show has been spectacular so far. If they keep these coming and throw a SW film at us every 3 years instead of 2 we should be good to go. No more rushing, and they have to have a plan for the entire trilogy from the get go.

Star Wars needs to know where it's going.

Whether it's a few standalone film or another multi-film saga or even a full on reboot... 2 or 3 years, it doesn't matter--if the quality of the movie somewhere in the planning stages is lacking/forgotten/abandoned.

 

[Iceman]

I always wanted more Episode films, like till the end of my life. Now I actively don't want any more ever again after the PT and ST. Create new stuff which isn't weighed down by the history of these films.

 

[Mjolnir Reborn]

I always wanted more Episode films, like till the end of my life. Now I actively don't want any more ever again after the PT and ST. Create new stuff which isn't weighed down by the history these films.

I don't want more episode films after the OT and PT. Luckily they are just doing Mandalorian post RotJ.

 

[Smurphftw]

For those want a good laugh, this genius predicted TRoS would gross less than Solo .....

I Predict That Rise Of Skywalker Will Do Less Than Solo At The Box Office – Disney Star Wars is Dumb

 

[Stark Bauer]

You will be wrong like i was with the Joker.
RoS will make a billion.

we will see about that. I highly doubt that it will. International box office is Lukewarm at best

 

[KaijuDude1992]

I like the direction they're going with the Mandalorian. I haven't seen episode 8 yet, but the show has been spectacular so far. If they keep these coming and throw a SW film at us every 3 years instead of 2 we should be good to go. No more rushing, and they have to have a plan for the entire trilogy from the get go.

To me it's kind of amazing what they have accomplished with The Mandalorian considering it only cost them about $100M in total yet these latest episodes look super expensive IMO. Seriously, it makes you think why they have spent so much on the movies when it's more than apparent now that they don't need to. I just don't see the excuse for a $200-$300M budgeted SW movie anymore.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend Forecast (Updated): Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Chases $75-80M+ Second Frame, May Overtake Pace of Last Jedi; Little Women & Uncut Gems Open Strong - Boxoffice

Seems reasonable. 80 was about what I was looking for this weekend.

 

[MadVillainy]

we will see about that. I highly doubt that it will. International box office is Lukewarm at best

It's over halfway there and it's only been a week...

 

[dhandler01]

It's over halfway there and it's only been a week...

True but the problem is it took having the perfectly placed holiday to get there. It is going to need DOM to make up for the international falloff (and China crashing) or it is going to need international to level off.

This movie is too frontloaded and if it doesnt show signs of legs post New Years the fall could be steep and painful.

 

[The Whizzer]

To me it's kind of amazing what they have accomplished with The Mandalorian considering it only cost them about $100M in total yet these latest episodes look super expensive IMO. Seriously, it makes you think why they have spent so much on the movies when it's more than apparent now that they don't need to. I just don't see the excuse for a $200-$300M budgeted SW movie anymore.

I’m sure a lot of that money goes to the stars, which honestly Star Wars doesn’t need.

 

[spiderman2]

I dont think so. The brand is in decline right now. Saturating the market was a bad play anyways and continuing to do so will only make it worse. Adding a name to the marquee wont be enough especially internationally. Stick to small projects and in 5 years see where you are at. Star Wars is no longer "special" it is just another blockbuster series.

BTW some on BOT are looking at some bad drops this weekend for TROS. At the rate it is dropping it will finish well behind TLJ overall. (which annoys me as I like this film and loathe TLJ) I have to agree with a few of them that this is because the hardcore fans arent going back for multiple viewings at the rate SW is accustomed too.

From what the movie has done monday-thursday i dont see it having a big drop this weekend but because the movie made about 43 million less DOM then TLJ on OW and OS numbers were lower to it was going to have a uphill battle to get to what TLJ did. This whole star wars is not special thing is a over reacting it comes down to quility. People have said CBM fatgue yet you had a movie like captian marvel make over a billion. People are not realizing how much TLJ hurt. It had bad legs witch shows people didnt like it and a lot of people has a result of TLJ were never going to see this movie.

 

[spiderman2]

TFA people loved because it was ANH ripoff coming off the prequels. (myself included) It was a return to form, without Lucas trying to overdue it. There was also a 10 year gap between films. Part of Star Wars' charm was there wasnt a ton of films. Yeah there were books and comics but honestly it was the lack of media that made it legendary. (that and it being on TV like every weekend in the 80s/90s) As more and more gets added, the more watered down it gets and the more it loses its appeal. It isnt the event it used to be, because we know another is coming out in a year or two so we can try again then.

I like this film, but I wont see it again (unless one of my friends that refused to see it wants to) and I wont buy it. Same with TFA and TLJ. All single viewings with no further watching. Christ I saw AOTC in the theaters twice and that film sucked. The Di$ney Star Wars Universe is just kind of "meh". There is really no point to it, there is nothing to really grab on to and fall in love with (the characters blow because not one director knew what to do with them...like what point did Finn have to be there? Why should we care about Poe?) it is just "Hey look, these guys are flying in the ship you know from your childhood and that person has a cool lightsaber!! It is all nostalgia and fan service which is fine, I loved it for that, but there is no actual there there. That is why BO returns keep dropping.

Star Wars isnt Marvel...and until Di$ney starts to understand that they are going to have issues with the franchise.

I am tired of hearing that TFA was ANH ripoff it wasnt it was just a good movie unlike the PT movies.
Yes it helped that there was not a star wars movie for a long time but If TFA was more of the quality of the PT movies it wouldn't have made 2 billion and people wouldn't have liked it. The reception to TFA is way above TLJ and TROSW and then you even factor in solo.

we will see about that. I highly doubt that it will. International box office is Lukewarm at best

I dont see how its not getting to a billion. The movie will be around 800 by the end of monday. If it makes 800 million in about 2 weeks/slighly over 2 weeks how is it not going to make just 200 millon more? I can under stand how it might not have around 500 millon more to get to TLJ but 200 should have no problem. Even if you are worried about it having a big drop of after the holidays i still dont see how it dosnt get to a billion has it still has 1 more holiday weekend after this weekend to help it have a smaller drop for weekend 3. After weekend 4 it should be pretty close to a billion even if weekend 4 is a big drop.

To me it's kind of amazing what they have accomplished with The Mandalorian considering it only cost them about $100M in total yet these latest episodes look super expensive IMO. Seriously, it makes you think why they have spent so much on the movies when it's more than apparent now that they don't need to. I just don't see the excuse for a $200-$300M budgeted SW movie anymore.

A lot of big movies now days have budgets of like 200-300 million. Of course it also depends on what you expect and how much the movie makes that is important. If you do a smaller star wars movie like spin off type of thing and it only make 700 million but also cost only like 60 million not a big deal. But if a movie makes 700 million and cost 300 million then it only doing 700 is a big deal.

 

[Adhesive Boy]

If one doesn't like TFA being called a ANH ripoff they should just wish that JJ didn't create a movie where a future heroic force user, living a poor life on a desert planet, has to take a droid with important information off planet in the Millennium Falcon to help the rebel struggle against the evil empire and their planet destroying space station.

It was the most base level attempt to cater to fans of the OT by nearly giving them the first Star Wars again. However, the side effect is that it just ended up ****ting on the OT because now those victories don't mean much anymore. But hey, now you have a new super character that's good at everything to root for!

 

[dhandler01]

I am tired of hearing that TFA was ANH ripoff it wasnt it was just a good movie unlike the PT movies.
Yes it helped that there was not a star wars movie for a long time but If TFA was more of the quality of the PT movies it wouldn't have made 2 billion and people wouldn't have liked it. The reception to TFA is way above TLJ and TROSW and then you even factor in solo.



I dont see how its not getting to a billion. The movie will be around 800 by the end of monday. If it makes 800 million in about 2 weeks/slighly over 2 weeks how is it not going to make just 200 millon more? I can under stand how it might not have around 500 millon more to get to TLJ but 200 should have no problem. Even if you are worried about it having a big drop of after the holidays i still dont see how it dosnt get to a billion has it still has 1 more holiday weekend after this weekend to help it have a smaller drop for weekend 3. After weekend 4 it should be pretty close to a billion even if weekend 4 is a big drop.



A lot of big movies now days have budgets of like 200-300 million. Of course it also depends on what you expect and how much the movie makes that is important. If you do a smaller star wars movie like spin off type of thing and it only make 700 million but also cost only like 60 million not a big deal. But if a movie makes 700 million and cost 300 million then it only doing 700 is a big deal.

You can deny it all you want to...it is the same movie they dont even try and hide it. There is nothing wrong with that...it is what the franchise needed badly. Hell it is why plenty of people want JJ to make Superman to return it to the form they are used to. The story is the same, the beats are the same, it was a nostalgia-fest of the (no pun intended) first order. That is why it is better than the prequels...it was literally the Di$ney version of Star Wars. (nothing original, just reminding us what we loved before) I saw it opening night and almost stayed for a second show it reminded me of ANH so much. That doesnt make it a bad film, it just means it is unoriginal. Tropes are tropes for a reason though...people like the familiar.

And dont give me the "if the movie is good people will care" BS because "good or bad" is subjective. Plenty of people found TLJ good and it didnt stop that film from underperforming compared to TFA. Plenty of people love this film and it is, once again, about to underperform based on TLJ. (and not just because of the opening...Star Wars is hemorrhaging fans internationally) Hell there is a loud vocal group that find Snyder's DC films masterpieces...and yet we know how that worked out. Once divisiveness plays into things we are in trouble and we have all seen it first hand.

When I say "Star Wars is no longer special" that isnt because of the quality (though that isnt helping) it is the fact that Star Wars doesnt work as an expanded universe. Sure high end Star Wars geeks will see every film, watch every TV show and memorize all the books (that was me for a while) but for most people the appeal was that it WASNT oversaturated. For most of my life there was 3 films...that was the entirety of the canon most people knew. The story was rather basic but since there wasnt deep dives into the background (unless you wanted to do the research) the holes in the story were ignored because the charm was off the charts. The prequels started the decline of that because Lucas felt he needed to explain everything and tie it all together. Then Di$ney came along and decided they didnt really care what happened as long as they got movies every year or 2 and they made money. (we will leave out RO and Solo for the purposes of this argument...though they help me way more than they help you) Of the 6 films that came out since the original (hell make it 9 if you want to include the crappy re-issues) we got maybe 2 full decent films (bits here and there) of the 12+ hours of film. The audience is only going to take that decline so long...

Star Wars needs a break. A real break. 5 years at least from the theaters to let things settle down. People will come back if you give them enough time (we have seen that countless times) but you got to let them forget what made them so mad in the first place. Let the bad blood over TLJ and ROTS dissipate, let TV shows like the Mandalorian rebuild the good will and then 2024 announce the next story. NOT A TRILOGY A STORY! Map it out and see where it leads. Put people in charge with a larger vision, but not too friggin large. For as big as Star Wars is in truth part of its charm was how self contained it was. It was a snapshot in the lives of these characters set against the backdrop of a Rebellion. Go back to quaint, go back to vague, and go back to having characters of value not just who are pastiche's of what came before shoehorned into a new story because...reasons. For as bad as Solo was, if it had been about Bob Smith, smuggler during the Imperial Times it might have been 10000% better. Making it about Han Solo for no reason is Di$ney proving they have no clue what they were doing...they just saw merchandise $$$$ and went for it.

And BTW, remember I am saying all this as someone who liked 2/3 of the ST and am actively trying to get people IRL to see the film who hate what Star Wars has become. Just because I like the film though doesnt mean it isnt highly flawed and Di$ney didnt drop the ball badly since they bought Lucasfilm.

 

[dhandler01]

One other thing that is killing Star Wars and will hurt it in the future is the breakdown of the people seeing it. If you believe the trackers on BOT ROTS is getting less women and children than TLJ did. (and I believe the age is skewing up as well) Star Wars cant survive on old men forever.

The craziest part of the discussion there (those that read the board can back me up) is that there is legit belief there that if SW comes out in 2022 and stays in its slot that Aquaman 2 will crush it. Now I dont buy that AT ALL but that we can even have that conversation is nuts. The fact that there is a possibility that a low budget film about The Joker might beat the concluding film of The Skywalker Saga is crazy as well.

 

[spiderman2]

Any like pm update for fridays/weekend numbers?

 

[spiderman2]

You can deny it all you want to...it is the same movie they dont even try and hide it. There is nothing wrong with that...it is what the franchise needed badly. Hell it is why plenty of people want JJ to make Superman to return it to the form they are used to. The story is the same, the beats are the same, it was a nostalgia-fest of the (no pun intended) first order. That is why it is better than the prequels...it was literally the Di$ney version of Star Wars. (nothing original, just reminding us what we loved before) I saw it opening night and almost stayed for a second show it reminded me of ANH so much. That doesnt make it a bad film, it just means it is unoriginal. Tropes are tropes for a reason though...people like the familiar.

And dont give me the "if the movie is good people will care" BS because "good or bad" is subjective. Plenty of people found TLJ good and it didnt stop that film from underperforming compared to TFA. Plenty of people love this film and it is, once again, about to underperform based on TLJ. (and not just because of the opening...Star Wars is hemorrhaging fans internationally) Hell there is a loud vocal group that find Snyder's DC films masterpieces...and yet we know how that worked out. Once divisiveness plays into things we are in trouble and we have all seen it first hand.

When I say "Star Wars is no longer special" that isnt because of the quality (though that isnt helping) it is the fact that Star Wars doesnt work as an expanded universe. Sure high end Star Wars geeks will see every film, watch every TV show and memorize all the books (that was me for a while) but for most people the appeal was that it WASNT oversaturated. For most of my life there was 3 films...that was the entirety of the canon most people knew. The story was rather basic but since there wasnt deep dives into the background (unless you wanted to do the research) the holes in the story were ignored because the charm was off the charts. The prequels started the decline of that because Lucas felt he needed to explain everything and tie it all together. Then Di$ney came along and decided they didnt really care what happened as long as they got movies every year or 2 and they made money. (we will leave out RO and Solo for the purposes of this argument...though they help me way more than they help you) Of the 6 films that came out since the original (hell make it 9 if you want to include the crappy re-issues) we got maybe 2 full decent films (bits here and there) of the 12+ hours of film. The audience is only going to take that decline so long...

Star Wars needs a break. A real break. 5 years at least from the theaters to let things settle down. People will come back if you give them enough time (we have seen that countless times) but you got to let them forget what made them so mad in the first place. Let the bad blood over TLJ and ROTS dissipate, let TV shows like the Mandalorian rebuild the good will and then 2024 announce the next story. NOT A TRILOGY A STORY! Map it out and see where it leads. Put people in charge with a larger vision, but not too friggin large. For as big as Star Wars is in truth part of its charm was how self contained it was. It was a snapshot in the lives of these characters set against the backdrop of a Rebellion. Go back to quaint, go back to vague, and go back to having characters of value not just who are pastiche's of what came before shoehorned into a new story because...reasons. For as bad as Solo was, if it had been about Bob Smith, smuggler during the Imperial Times it might have been 10000% better. Making it about Han Solo for no reason is Di$ney proving they have no clue what they were doing...they just saw merchandise $$$$ and went for it.

And BTW, remember I am saying all this as someone who liked 2/3 of the ST and am actively trying to get people IRL to see the film who hate what Star Wars has become. Just because I like the film though doesnt mean it isnt highly flawed and Di$ney didnt drop the ball badly since they bought Lucasfilm.

Its not ANH at all that video shows its not i am not sure how much prof people need its not the same thing at all its just a great movie is all. No you are just wrong it does come down to how good the movie is even the legs showed that people didnt like TLJ that much or at least found it much worse then TFA. It takes more then just being the first star wars movie in 10 years to make that much more then TLJ. You can say that TFA made more because of being the first star wars movie in 10 years but there is more reason then just that for it to make 700 million more then TLJ that is a big time drop off. TLJ if it had even sold legs not great legs could have made more like 1.6 billion instead of 1.3 and that show that it was more then just the first star wars movie in 10 years that helped TFA to make the amount of money it did. I think the spins off hurt things because people where not asking for them and it made it so the movies were less spaced out but i get tired of hearing people say its because to much of something. Fatigue in the sense of getting to much is mostly just a myth mostly just comes down to how good the movie is. Most movies in a franchise that have made less money then the movie before is because either the movie was worse then the movie before or the movie before was not good and so people didnt trust the next movie would be good or a reboot something that always turns people way. Not often are you going to find a movie in a franchise make less the the one before if its comming of a good movie and if the new one is also good. Yes good is subjective but legs on a movie is a sine that people find a movie to be good and TLJ had bad legs TFA had amazing legs and again if TLJ just had good legs like in the middle of TFA and TLJ it would have made like 300-400 million more then it did and been a lot close to TFA even though still less. I beat like 30% of people that saw TLJ were not going to see TROSW because of how they fellt about TLJ. Heck its the reason there are so many franchise and sequles in the first place because a movie builds up a franchise so next movie can make even more if the movie is good.

 

[Sithborg]

To me it's kind of amazing what they have accomplished with The Mandalorian considering it only cost them about $100M in total yet these latest episodes look super expensive IMO. Seriously, it makes you think why they have spent so much on the movies when it's more than apparent now that they don't need to. I just don't see the excuse for a $200-$300M budgeted SW movie anymore.

Ehh, you can kind of see the edges of the budget.

 

[dhandler01]

Any like pm update for fridays/weekend numbers?

From what I saw on BOT it isnt looking great. Mid 20s for Friday, low to mid 70s for the weekend. (80 is the high and most dont seem to think it will happen) Will fall well below TLJ and is looking to fall below Rogue One as well. I think I read $525 is the likely DOM figure and international will be right around there too.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

From what I saw on BOT it isnt looking great. Mid 20s for Friday, low to mid 70s for the weekend. (80 is the high and most dont seem to think it will happen) Will fall well below TLJ and is looking to fall below Rogue One as well. I think I read $525 is the likely DOM figure and international will be right around there too.

Yeah that definitely doesn't sound great at all. The finale in the main trilogy finishing with less than a spin-off domestically and possibly WW is such a underwhelming conclusion for the SW Saga IMO.

 

[Yellow Cyclone]

good. combined with what i'm sure were expensive reshoots, this is the only way to get disney/iger's attention, the wallet.

not fan petitions, "outrage," social media, blah blah. good old fashioned green, or lack thereof

 

[dhandler01]

Its not ANH at all that video shows its not i am not sure how much prof people need its not the same thing at all its just a great movie is all. No you are just wrong it does come down to how good the movie is even the legs showed that people didnt like TLJ that much or at least found it much worse then TFA. It takes more then just being the first star wars movie in 10 years to make that much more then TLJ. You can say that TFA made more because of being the first star wars movie in 10 years but there is more reason then just that for it to make 700 million more then TLJ that is a big time drop off. TLJ if it had even sold legs not great legs could have made more like 1.6 billion instead of 1.3 and that show that it was more then just the first star wars movie in 10 years that helped TFA to make the amount of money it did. I think the spins off hurt things because people where not asking for them and it made it so the movies were less spaced out but i get tired of hearing people say its because to much of something. Fatigue in the sense of getting to much is mostly just a myth mostly just comes down to how good the movie is. Most movies in a franchise that have made less money then the movie before is because either the movie was worse then the movie before or the movie before was not good and so people didnt trust the next movie would be good or a reboot something that always turns people way. Not often are you going to find a movie in a franchise make less the the one before if its comming of a good movie and if the new one is also good. Yes good is subjective but legs on a movie is a sine that people find a movie to be good and TLJ had bad legs TFA had amazing legs and again if TLJ just had good legs like in the middle of TFA and TLJ it would have made like 300-400 million more then it did and been a lot close to TFA even though still less. I beat like 30% of people that saw TLJ were not going to see TROSW because of how they fellt about TLJ. Heck its the reason there are so many franchise and sequles in the first place because a movie builds up a franchise so next movie can make even more if the movie is good.

Ok you need to actually read what people type not assume you know what they are saying. I never said TFA made more money than TLJ because of the 10 years...I said it was thought of as a great film because it copied A New Hope (which it did) and because enough time passed that people wanted another film so they could forget the prequels. (plus the excitement of a new studio making the films without Lucas and his ridiculousness involved) This isnt exactly groundbreaking info it is the popular opinion going back to before TLJ came out. TLJ was never going to make as much as TFA because TFA was an event based on a dozen factors, lightning in a bottle. TLJ wasnt.

What killed TLJ though was that half the fanbase didnt like it. Same problem with ROTS. They are flawed films that werent properly planned or executed. One spent too much time trying to subvert expectations and the other spent too much time trying to win people back. Both failed and that is why in 10 years no one will really care that any of these films happened just like they dont care the prequels happened. Completionists will own them, but no one will really hold them in any sort of high regard.

 

[8ulk87]

we will see about that. I highly doubt that it will. International box office is Lukewarm at best

DOMESTIC (50.7%)
$289,796,816
INTERNATIONAL (49.3%)
$282,300,000
WORLDWIDE
$572,096,816

You still think it wont make it ?

Its gonna be at ~ $750 mil WW after Sunday.
Slightly below/above FFP Hobbs & Shaw which sits at $760,3 mil.

And then the next weekend it will hit $900 mil.