The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[Iceman]

Yeah that definitely doesn't sound great at all. The finale in the main trilogy finishing with less than a spin-off domestically and possibly WW is such a underwhelming conclusion for the SW Saga IMO.

It’s crazy how far behind TLJ it is. Solo and this film have seen the franchise numbers crumble as many predicted (although not to this level) after TLJ, to the extent that they’ll probably make less combined than (edit*) I expected TROS to make by itself.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Looks like Rise of Skywalker is going to make a significant box office run during the holiday season.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

‘Star Wars: Rise Of Skywalker’ Running B.O. To Exceed ‘Last Jedi’ This Sunday — Thursday AM Update – Deadline

Chart per Saturday AM industry estimates ranked by 5-day:

1.) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker (Dis) 4,406 theaters Fri $26.2M (-71%)/3-day: $76M (-57%)/5-day: $138.8M/Cume: $365.8M/Wk 2

 

[DarkKnight88]

It’s crazy how far behind TLJ it is. Solo and this film have seen the franchise numbers crumble as many predicted (although not to this level) after TLJ, to the extent that they’ll probably make less combined than TLJ did.

Um. No.

The film fell 71% from its $90 million Friday, which neither an emergency nor exceptionally strong. Rian Johnson’s The Last Jedi dropped 76% on its second Friday, while Rogue One fell 67% on its second Friday and J.J. Abrams’ The Force Awakens dropped 58% on Friday number two, which just happened to fall on Christmas Day. As presumed for awhile now, The Rise of Skywalker opened well below Last Jedi but is having stronger post-debut legs.
...
That would give Rise of Skywalker a domestic finish above The Last Jedi’s $620 million cume. If it earns 50/50 worldwide, it’ll gross around $1.24 billion worldwide. That’s below Last Jedi’s $1.333 billion cume, but not a Jurassic Park III-level downturn overseas (nor a Matrix Revolutions-level downturn in North America). Since it could be tied with Star Wars VIII domestically as of Sunday, the question will be whether its second Mon-Thurs frame, also part of the holiday break, will be strong enough compared to Last Jedi’s second Mon-Thurs frame, which was its first holiday week, to break out in terms of day-to-day cumes.

 

[ironman_rick]

Any ballpark figure for this weekend ?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Any ballpark figure for this weekend ?

75, +/-5 at this point.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

Early Saturday estimate from BOT is 23-24m. Yikes.

Weekend Thread: SW 26, Jumanji 11.5, Frozen 5.75

 

[Donner]

Spoiler

No one wants to see Ben die twice

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Early Saturday estimate from BOT is 23-24m. Yikes.

Weekend Thread: SW 26, Jumanji 11.5, Frozen 5.75

Could end up missing 70m then.

 

[dhandler01]

Early Saturday estimate from BOT is 23-24m. Yikes.

Weekend Thread: SW 26, Jumanji 11.5, Frozen 5.75

Yikes...

All those spin articles trying to make it sound like it isnt underperforming are gonna look bad in hindsight. Deadline especially, which hasnt been right on tracking for movies all year. (they are a running joke on BOT) I am not sure why they are rejecting math when it comes to this film but their projections are a joke. If TLJ had the same holiday set up it would have done way better even with its legs. This film is crashing hard which means the WOM is not as good as some around here thought.

edit: Holy crap the amount of people ripping Deadline in that thread is awesome. Even Snyder fanboys dont bring up Di$ney conspiracies with the press that much

 

[Limonade]

I've read Forbes take on Friday. They said it's not underperforming but it's not overperforming either. It's somewhere in the middle. It's doing Star Wars number they said--what ever that means.

 

[dhandler01]

Forbes is spinning as well. Come Monday if the numbers are as bad as the projections (non-media) are intimating the spinning from most will stop. It was bad enough when the trackers on BOT were expecting $75-80 million for the second weekend (that was considered "fine" but still disappointing) but now with the possibility it actually comes in under $70 million (which I still think seems a bit pessimistic but who knows) this is a (put it in perspective) disaster. You couldnt ask for a better set up for the film to make money. It should have been able to to caost to decent weekends even with normal WOM. There should never be any legit argument or projection that it A) goes under $500 million DOM and B) has trouble reaching a Billion WW. Yet here we are...

The lower opening you can blame on TLJ, the mediocre legs (and Cinemascore) are all on this film and the Di$ney Plan as a whole.

We will really know how bad it is after the New Year when we see how many theaters it loses.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I've read Forbes take on Friday. They said it's not underperforming but it's not overperforming either. It's somewhere in the middle. It's doing Star Wars number they said--what ever that means.

So TROS is simply performing lol.

 

[Sithborg]

Considering the amount of movies is more than Star Wars has face before, I can see it being weaker on the weekend. But then again, Wed Christmas causes wackiness with numbers.

But go on, panic panic panic.

 

[Stark Bauer]

DOMESTIC (50.7%)
$289,796,816
INTERNATIONAL (49.3%)
$282,300,000
WORLDWIDE
$572,096,816

You still think it wont make it ?

Its gonna be at ~ $750 mil WW after Sunday.
Slightly below/above FFP Hobbs & Shaw which sits at $760,3 mil.

And then the next weekend it will hit $900 mil.

Yes. I may revise my prediction depending on the second week and/or 2nd weekend results. If it drops over 60-70% then I am sticking to what I said. If it drops less than 60-65% I may change my mind. International numbers will be the game changer- if the international total is more or less then 600 million then ROS will or won’t reach 1 B.

 

[Iceman]

Um. No.

Sorry I edited above - I was talking worldwide, not domestic, and meant Solo and TROS combined are looking like making less than I expected TROS to make by itself - which I was expecting around the $1.6B mark. I was fully expecting this film to easily make more than TLJ's worldwide take by a few hundred million, before the first reactions started coming in. It feels like we are in territory that would have felt totally impossible just a few weeks ago. Anyone coming on here back then questioning whether the final SW film could make a billion would have been laughed off.​

 

[superion]

Early Saturday estimate from BOT is 23-24m. Yikes.

Weekend Thread: SW 26, Jumanji 11.5, Frozen 5.75

I don't know where box office theory gets their numbers from but that is impossible. Fridays confirmed number was $26+ million. Films do not make less on a Saturday than on a Friday outside of the opening weekend where Thursday's numbers are counted. That's just not the way the box office works for any movie even bombs like Cats.

Regardless of whether you like or hate the last two movies (I didn't care for Last Jedi or Solo. Haven't seen TROS yet) Deadline's numbers are far more believable and logical.

 

[Webhead38]

If we're looking at the predictions and early estimates for what they are, Deadline has consistently been off by a large margin since the film first dropped. Lots of hopeful spin by the guys behind those keyboards. It was Deadline that spun a $223 million opening weekend (Off a mere $46 million). It was Deadline that also spun a $100 million second weekend (now forecasting down to $75 million).

There is less analysis and more Disney-bot spin coming from those keyboards every time that brand is up to bat. I suggested the opening weekend would take a hit being it was the last weekend before Christmas, but to expect it to make up for that during the days leading up to Christmas. That happened. I reasoned the second weekend would take a MINIMUM of 55% plus because so many DID see the film during the holiday... THAT is now happening.

We're talking about a depressed brand that just delivered its lowest ever Cinemascore with this film. Right now its performing EXACTLY as a franchise in this position should be for a holiday week. Those extra days leading to Christmas gave it that artificial boost when people pile into theaters to see the latest and greatest. You now have a huge segment of the public that have gotten to this movie EARLIER than what a normal cycle would give a new release. The sophomore weekend often tells us whether there's still an appetite to get back in theaters for these films.

If, after all that business, a film can escape the second weekend, with a sub 60% decline, then it has the public's attention well past just being the latest branded attraction for the holidays. That alone is an achievement. So these so called analysts thumping their chests about a sub 50% drop for the second weekend were quite frankly typing nothing but spin with zero consideration for the numbers and industry traits of these films.

What we get from actuals on Monday will tell us allot about how this film is holding up. Monday should also prove interesting as well. Remember, this film has the majority of its business coming from viewers 25 and older. Star Wars is no longer the huge family attraction it once was. I think the billion dollar figure still remains on the table, but we need to see if that second weekend drop is above or below 60%. That will tell us allot about whether this film has the winds against it or at its back.

 

[Warlock]

If we're looking at the predictions and early estimates for what they are, Deadline has consistently been off by a large margin since the film first dropped. Lots of hopeful spin by the guys behind those keyboards. It was Deadline that spun a $223 million opening weekend (Off a mere $46 million). It was Deadline that also spun a $100 million second weekend (now forecasting down to $75 million).

There is less analysis and more Disney-bot spin coming from those keyboards every time that brand is up to bat. I suggested the opening weekend would take a hit being it was the last weekend before Christmas, but to expect it to make up for that during the days leading up to Christmas. That happened. I reasoned the second weekend would take a MINIMUM of 55% plus because so many DID see the film during the holiday... THAT is now happening.

We're talking about a depressed brand that just delivered its lowest ever Cinemascore with this film. Right now its performing EXACTLY as a franchise in this position should be for a holiday week. Those extra days leading to Christmas gave it that artificial boost when people pile into theaters to see the latest and greatest. You now have a huge segment of the public that have gotten to this movie EARLIER than what a normal cycle would give a new release. The sophomore weekend often tells us whether there's still an appetite to get back in theaters for these films.

If, after all that business, a film can escape the second weekend, with a sub 60% decline, then it has the public's attention well past just being the latest branded attraction for the holidays. That alone is an achievement. So these so called analysts thumping their chests about a sub 50% drop for the second weekend were quite frankly typing nothing but spin with zero consideration for the numbers and industry traits of these films.

What we get from actuals on Monday will tell us allot about how this film is holding up. Monday should also prove interesting as well. Remember, this film has the majority of its business coming from viewers 25 and older. Star Wars is no longer the huge family attraction it once was. I think the billion dollar figure still remains on the table, but we need to see if that second weekend drop is above or below 60%. That will tell us allot about whether this film has the winds against it or at its back.

The drop will be 60% or greater.

 

[dhandler01]

I don't know where box office theory gets their numbers from but that is impossible. Fridays confirmed number was $26+ million. Films do not make less on a Saturday than on a Friday outside of the opening weekend where Thursday's numbers are counted. That's just not the way the box office works for any movie even bombs like Cats.

Regardless of whether you like or hate the last two movies (I didn't care for Last Jedi or Solo. Haven't seen TROS yet) Deadline's numbers are far more believable and logical.

They get their numbers from the theaters (various different ways that are beyond me but I know some use the web sites to show tickets sold per theater) and if you know who to read (Jedi Jat, keysersoze and like 5-6 others who arent trolling) they are way more accurate than Deadline or any of the other "experts" out there that rely on the studios for their numbers. (along with outdated tracking methods) In fact on the films I have followed them on Deadline has almost always adjusted closer to their numbers after the fact. Follow the thread and you will see who you can trust and if they are all in agreement then things are looking bad. They adjust their numbers throughout the day so they change. The early estimate is usually from JJ who I believe lives in India so he does a later number which is almost always dead on. (or very close) Between him and a few others they usually have the number especially the weekend number.

If we're looking at the predictions and early estimates for what they are, Deadline has consistently been off by a large margin since the film first dropped. Lots of hopeful spin by the guys behind those keyboards. It was Deadline that spun a $223 million opening weekend (Off a mere $46 million). It was Deadline that also spun a $100 million second weekend (now forecasting down to $75 million).

There is less analysis and more Disney-bot spin coming from those keyboards every time that brand is up to bat. I suggested the opening weekend would take a hit being it was the last weekend before Christmas, but to expect it to make up for that during the days leading up to Christmas. That happened. I reasoned the second weekend would take a MINIMUM of 55% plus because so many DID see the film during the holiday... THAT is now happening.

We're talking about a depressed brand that just delivered its lowest ever Cinemascore with this film. Right now its performing EXACTLY as a franchise in this position should be for a holiday week. Those extra days leading to Christmas gave it that artificial boost when people pile into theaters to see the latest and greatest. You now have a huge segment of the public that have gotten to this movie EARLIER than what a normal cycle would give a new release. The sophomore weekend often tells us whether there's still an appetite to get back in theaters for these films.

If, after all that business, a film can escape the second weekend, with a sub 60% decline, then it has the public's attention well past just being the latest branded attraction for the holidays. That alone is an achievement. So these so called analysts thumping their chests about a sub 50% drop for the second weekend were quite frankly typing nothing but spin with zero consideration for the numbers and industry traits of these films.

What we get from actuals on Monday will tell us allot about how this film is holding up. Monday should also prove interesting as well. Remember, this film has the majority of its business coming from viewers 25 and older. Star Wars is no longer the huge family attraction it once was. I think the billion dollar figure still remains on the table, but we need to see if that second weekend drop is above or below 60%. That will tell us allot about whether this film has the winds against it or at its back.

All of this. People ignored the signs, Deadline ignored math and here we are. The problem is even the top projections now have it at a 54% drop if I read right...the people who seem to be right most often from BOT have it at 60%. Neither number is good considering the factors at play. (as you pointed out perfectly)

I still think it will eek out $525 both DOM and WW and yeah that number is nice but it is a major let down. If I am wrong and it goes less than $525 DOM all bets of a billion are off. Even if my numbers are correct it still finishes below Joker and Joker didnt release in China. (while ROTS did and crashed and burned there)

 

[Stark Bauer]

If we're looking at the predictions and early estimates for what they are, Deadline has consistently been off by a large margin since the film first dropped. Lots of hopeful spin by the guys behind those keyboards. It was Deadline that spun a $223 million opening weekend (Off a mere $46 million). It was Deadline that also spun a $100 million second weekend (now forecasting down to $75 million).

There is less analysis and more Disney-bot spin coming from those keyboards every time that brand is up to bat. I suggested the opening weekend would take a hit being it was the last weekend before Christmas, but to expect it to make up for that during the days leading up to Christmas. That happened. I reasoned the second weekend would take a MINIMUM of 55% plus because so many DID see the film during the holiday... THAT is now happening.

We're talking about a depressed brand that just delivered its lowest ever Cinemascore with this film. Right now its performing EXACTLY as a franchise in this position should be for a holiday week. Those extra days leading to Christmas gave it that artificial boost when people pile into theaters to see the latest and greatest. You now have a huge segment of the public that have gotten to this movie EARLIER than what a normal cycle would give a new release. The sophomore weekend often tells us whether there's still an appetite to get back in theaters for these films.

If, after all that business, a film can escape the second weekend, with a sub 60% decline, then it has the public's attention well past just being the latest branded attraction for the holidays. That alone is an achievement. So these so called analysts thumping their chests about a sub 50% drop for the second weekend were quite frankly typing nothing but spin with zero consideration for the numbers and industry traits of these films.

What we get from actuals on Monday will tell us allot about how this film is holding up. Monday should also prove interesting as well. Remember, this film has the majority of its business coming from viewers 25 and older. Star Wars is no longer the huge family attraction it once was. I think the billion dollar figure still remains on the table, but we need to see if that second weekend drop is above or below 60%. That will tell us allot about whether this film has the winds against it or at its back.

I concur. However, historically the third weekend tends to be a smaller drop (even with mediocre to poorly received sequels), and even up to the fourth weekend and so on...I would be watching for ROS to have declines of 60% or greater from weekend to weekend which would be Batman V Superman levels of bad. If it can remain steady at 50% or less from week/weekend 3-6 it could break a billion. Again, we need to see what kind of competition it will have in the coming two months.

edit: the only real contenders I see are 1917, bad boys, dolittle, Birds of Prey and Sonic.

for a comparison here are the weekend to weekend percentage drops for BvS, Solo, TLJ, and Endgame.

BvS
2- 69%
3- 54%
4- 61%
5- 39%
6- 29%
7- 73%
8- 50%

Solo
2- 65%
3- 46%
4- 36%
5- 55%
6- 40%
7- 60%
8- 40%

TLJ
2- 67%
3- 27%
4- 55%
5- 50%
6- 45%
7- 35%
8- 45%

Endgame
2- 59%
3- 57%
4- 52%
5- 42%
6- 53%
7- 39%
8- 23%

if ROS has multiple weekend drops of 55% or greater in the next 7-8 weeks it most likely won’t make a billion worldwide. And will end up with less than 600 million domestically.

 

[Iceman]

We’ve heard this pattern of Star Wars trilogies opening with the biggest film and finishing with the second biggest film. Something has gone wrong somewhere. After a spinoff made a billion (shortly after TFA’s crazy numbers), Star Wars felt as strong as ever. Since then TLJ tailed off disappointingly, Solo was a bit of a disaster, and now TROS is coming in with numbers I didn’t think were possible even with a bad reception.

 

[ironman_rick]

Man...if those weekend numbers are right it can only mean that the core star wars base have given up on this franchise.

Really hope disney brings on Jon Favreau as the new creative head of SW.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

The latest Saturday estimate from BOT is 25m.

Weekend Thread: SW 26 (F) 24.5 (S) | Jumanji 11.5 (F) 12 (S) | Frozen 5.75 (F) 5.15 (S) |