The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[ironman_rick]

Welll at least with these numbers, this movie will at least make a billion. So that's cool.

 

[Patrick77]

The point about relationships between the lead characters, and the way that the audience's engagement builds off of the sense that the characters grow to truly care about and rely on each other, was made about the prequel trilogy as well.

The relationship between Obi Wan and Anakin is the only one in the PT that might be said to escape the problem, and even then only somewhat. Their relationship feels pretty stiff and forced a lot of the time.

It's a simple thing, but it's a big part of what makes these stories work. Tolkien understood this in the Lord of the Rings. The "fellowship" aspect is so important. Of course the tides of fortune will break up the group along the way, and the bonds of friendship will be particularly strong between certain individuals, like Frodo and Sam, Merry and Pippin, or Legolas and Gimli. But larger groups of friends reuniting at times along the way is also important, especially at the end.

The original Star Wars movies had this. I thought that Rogue One had it to some extent, or at least it had a little of that charm. Not on the same level, but I did feel a little of that camaraderie.

But neither the PT nor the ST have had it. That's not good because it's such a central part of why these stories work. The adventuring group setting out into the unknown to confront evil.

Harry Potter has a version of it. Harry, Hermione and Ron being the core group, with a larger group of friends built up around them.

 

[spiderman2]

This is all true, and the fault lies with both Rian Johnson and JJ because neither movie is really that good.

You are wrong about the legs though. Every metric proves it. If this film had any legs at all it wouldnt be dropping 59%. Even worse, it wouldnt be underperforming in one of the best positions holiday wise you can get. It opened lower than expectations, it is dropping worse than expectations and it is about to fall off a cliff after Jan 1. Every number backs up the "meh" legs including the weak B+ Cinemascore and the 86% audience score on RT. (which is roughly a B+ give or take) There are no legs for this...the numbers will continue to drop and after the new year it will lose quite a few screens and the bleeding will be really bad.

There was always going to be a massive drop from TFA to TLJ because TFA was lightning in a bottle. If Rian and JJ had just played this smart instead of each making tyheir own films that contradict each other it wouldnt be this dramatic. Its too bad...

I think its to early to really talk about its legs but if this movie were to have the same legs has TLJ it would only end at 500 DOM. This movie may end at 525 or so and that would still mean better legs then TLJ even if not like crazy better. Yeah i agree about there being a big drop of but like i said going from 2 billion to 1.3 is still a lot different then going from 2 to 1.5-1.6 and based of TLJ opeing weekend expecting 1.5-1.6 was not to much to except. So yeah big drop but it shouldnt have been 700 should have been more like 400-500. Also RO you would except to make less then TFA and TLJ with it being a spin of but for TROSW to make around RO is not good at all. TFA can be lighting in a bottle but that dosnt chance the fact that lossing like half your fan base from TFA to TROSW is bad and dissapointing. TLJ and TROSW making like lion king 2019 type of numbers is not expecting to much. Think about that for a minute 50% lose from TFA to TROSW. Frozen 1 made about 1.3 billion and Frozen 2 may make about the same. If all of a sudden they came out with a Frozen 3 and it only made 50% meaning like 650 million do you really think people would be saying its not a dissapointing number and do you really think Disney would be happy with that?

 

[Mysteryman]

The box office results of TROS might indeed be very disappointing.
That having been said, don't expect Disney to sell the rights to Star Wars anytime soon.

 

[Yellow Cyclone]

they'll never sell, but they need to clean house at the top

 

[Mjolnir Reborn]

This is all true, and the fault lies with both Rian Johnson and JJ because neither movie is really that good.

You are wrong about the legs though. Every metric proves it. If this film had any legs at all it wouldnt be dropping 59%. Even worse, it wouldnt be underperforming in one of the best positions holiday wise you can get. It opened lower than expectations, it is dropping worse than expectations and it is about to fall off a cliff after Jan 1. Every number backs up the "meh" legs including the weak B+ Cinemascore and the 86% audience score on RT. (which is roughly a B+ give or take) There are no legs for this...the numbers will continue to drop and after the new year it will lose quite a few screens and the bleeding will be really bad.

There was always going to be a massive drop from TFA to TLJ because TFA was lightning in a bottle. If Rian and JJ had just played this smart instead of each making tyheir own films that contradict each other it wouldnt be this dramatic. Its too bad...

I don't agree with that it was always going to have a massive drop. While TLJ didn't have quite the same hype as TFA it was still not far off, which the OW numbers show by differing 12%. If the film can create roughly the same kind of hype it can make reasonably similar money. TLJ made a lot less money than what was expected of it.

Age of Ultron was considered a disappointment when it made $1.4B to the Avengers' $1.52B. The OW numbers were a little bit closer, 8%, but AoU was still vastly more successful in comparison to its predecessor than TLJ was, and yet came in below expectations.

 

[sycamore]

they'll never sell, but they need to clean house at the top

Cleaning house alone would provide a boost to the franchise.

 

[Holy Slapper]

The OS being a sold amount ahead of USA is good but over all i thought the movie was going to be closer to 750 WW now.

Frozen 2 opened over here on Christmas day.

 

[JOE]

The fact that there are people out there who believe Disney will sell Star Wars is hilarious.

 

[samsnee]

The fact that there are people out there who believe Disney will sell Star Wars is hilarious.

Especially since they just built all their theme parks with a big Star Wars attraction.

 

[terry78]

Regardless of how the last two flicks did SW is a massive pop culture phenomenon and has been for decades. The merch alone still gives them a **** ton of cash.

 

[sycamore]

Regardless of how the last two flicks did SW is a massive pop culture phenomenon and has been for decades. The merch alone still gives them a **** ton of cash.

6 lousy movies in a row (excluding R1 and Solo) is not going to help their cause.

 

[8ulk87]

Regardless of how the last two flicks did SW is a massive pop culture phenomenon and has been for decades. The merch alone still gives them a **** ton of cash.

True but noone gives a damn about merch.

Lets say Avengers EG did $1 bil in merch sales and RoS will do $10 bil.

You still just cant compare a $2,8 bil vs $1,1 bil boxoffice gross and the vast majority of people will never know RoS won in merch sales nor is it important in the first place.

The SW franchise is in a tough spot.

Especially when you consider the budget and marketing costs then the $1 bil gross isnt as impressive as it appears. Compared to the Joker's billion in particular.

 

[Stark Bauer]

The point about relationships between the lead characters, and the way that the audience's engagement builds off of the sense that the characters grow to truly care about and rely on each other, was made about the prequel trilogy as well.

The relationship between Obi Wan and Anakin is the only one in the PT that might be said to escape the problem, and even then only somewhat. Their relationship feels pretty stiff and forced a lot of the time.

It's a simple thing, but it's a big part of what makes these stories work. Tolkien understood this in the Lord of the Rings. The "fellowship" aspect is so important. Of course the tides of fortune will break up the group along the way, and the bonds of friendship will be particularly strong between certain individuals, like Frodo and Sam, Merry and Pippin, or Legolas and Gimli. But larger groups of friends reuniting at times along the way is also important, especially at the end.

The original Star Wars movies had this. I thought that Rogue One had it to some extent, or at least it had a little of that charm. Not on the same level, but I did feel a little of that camaraderie.

But neither the PT nor the ST have had it. That's not good because it's such a central part of why these stories work. The adventuring group setting out into the unknown to confront evil.

Harry Potter has a version of it. Harry, Hermione and Ron being the core group, with a larger group of friends built up around them.

The Mandalorian has this

 

[Stark Bauer]

The box office results of TROS might indeed be very disappointing.
That having been said, don't expect Disney to sell the rights to Star Wars anytime soon.

Star Wars has the most potential at the box office of all the Disney franchises. Its film division is simply headed by the most incapable and wrongly suited, who scorned the auteur who gave it its life. Favreau and Filoni in charge would ensure that Star Wars will reach its full potential and they likewise respect and consult with George Lucas and ask for his input and INCLUDE his input.

off topic but regarding merch sales- Mandalorian related merch will outsell ROS on Baby Yoda alone

on topic- the weekend actuals could reveal that ROS dropped by more or less than 60% if the actual is 70.952 million or less

 

[Iceman]

I don't agree with that it was always going to have a massive drop. While TLJ didn't have quite the same hype as TFA it was still not far off, which the OW numbers show by differing 12%. If the film can create roughly the same kind of hype it can make reasonably similar money. TLJ made a lot less money than what was expected of it.

Age of Ultron was considered a disappointment when it made $1.4B to the Avengers' $1.52B. The OW numbers were a little bit closer, 8%, but AoU was still vastly more successful in comparison to its predecessor than TLJ was, and yet came in below expectations.

Yeah, people called Avengers 1 a lightning in a bottle moment at the time too. I never thought TFA or Avengers 1 were lightning in a bottle moments to the degree of something like Titanic. A Titanic 2 obviously isn't going to do anything close to the original. The success of Star Wars and a team comic universe is something that can be replicated. I think all the Avengers sequels proved me right with the slightly mixed reception AoU making nearly the same as the massively hyped original and the 2 larger scale films blowing it away (the final one making not far off double). SW also has had a number of so called LiaB moments with the original, TPM and TFA. In the first 2 case the films that followed all still did well, bouncing back further with the finality of their 3rd entries. Many of the people complaining are fans who are or were in the market for many rewatches of TLJ, Solo and TROS. I always though I'd watch the final film 10 times for eg and I'm not exactly the most vocal, unsatisfied fan.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

Early Monday estimate from BOT - 14.25m.

NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: Monday 1st Projection Page 1.

 

[dhandler01]

I don't agree with that it was always going to have a massive drop. While TLJ didn't have quite the same hype as TFA it was still not far off, which the OW numbers show by differing 12%. If the film can create roughly the same kind of hype it can make reasonably similar money. TLJ made a lot less money than what was expected of it.

Age of Ultron was considered a disappointment when it made $1.4B to the Avengers' $1.52B. The OW numbers were a little bit closer, 8%, but AoU was still vastly more successful in comparison to its predecessor than TLJ was, and yet came in below expectations.

There was no way TLJ would make 2 billion...none of the second Star Wars films in the trilogy went up they all took a massive hit. That just isnt how it works.

Now, if TLJ wasnt divisive...it does a helluva lot better. But it still takes a massive dip from TFA just because that is how it goes. (especially with China dropping) Maybe add 200 million but still nowhere near TFA. (nor was it realistically expected to be)

We will never know...sadly both directors screwed the pooch.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[dhandler01]

Yeah, people called Avengers 1 a lightning in a bottle moment at the time too. I never thought TFA or Avengers 1 were lightning in a bottle moments to the degree of something like Titanic. A Titanic 2 obviously isn't going to do anything close to the original. The success of Star Wars and a team comic universe is something that can be replicated. I think all the Avengers sequels proved me right with the slightly mixed reception AoU making nearly the same as the massively hyped original and the 2 larger scale films blowing it away (the final one making not far off double). SW also has had a number of so called LiaB moments with the original, TPM and TFA. In the first 2 case the films that followed all still did well, bouncing back further with the finality of their 3rd entries. Many of the people complaining are fans who are or were in the market for many rewatches of TLJ, Solo and TROS. I always though I'd watch the final film 10 times for eg and I'm not exactly the most vocal, unsatisfied fan.

You cant compare Avengers and The Force Awakens. The reason TFA overperformed was the same reason TPM overperformed. Avengers was a culmination of a lot of films building to something. (as were the later Avengers films which had other films in between) TPM and TFA had a decade of nothing. The big numbers were because of that gap. The Star Wars fanbase was itching for something new. The Avengers fanbase was in midst of a long form story.

But even if you ignore all of that Avengers still probably is closer to what this film is than what TFA was. This film was supposed to be the end of this phase of Star Wars. No more Skywalker Saga. 8 films leading to this. The problem is there was no plan to get here unlike Avengers. Once Avengers became the goal it became apparent that was the endpoint of that story. (which is why Iron Man 2 isnt as good as Iron Man 1...it was basically an Avengers prequel) By the time Avengers hit the MCU fans were ready, and the film had no need for any build up it just hops right in. That is how ROS should have been.

There is a reason Empire Strikes Back made less than A New Hope. (despite being lightyears better) The first film is always the most hyped in the Star Wars trilogy because it is either new or took forever to show up. The sequels not so much. Even if TLJ had been as good as Empire the BO for it would have fallen off. It just would have fallen off way less. TFA was a special moment, and the right film for the right time. Hell even in China they went to see it because of the ridiculous hype...then they stopped going more and more because they didnt care.

The reason it is called lightning in a bottle is because a lot of factors played into its overperformance that would be hard to replicate. The 10 year gap, the hated prequels, Di$ney buying it and the thought they would do for it what the MCU did, JJ doing his JJ thing and basically making the film a love letter to a New Hope...it was perfect. Sometimes, things just fall into place. (see: Joker this year)

 

[dhandler01]

The fact that there are people out there who believe Disney will sell Star Wars is hilarious.

Does anyone actually believe that? I havent seen it anywhere but here and no one here seems to believe it either...

That is just a dumb thought.

 

[dhandler01]

Merch sales is way down. Hell by holding off on the Baby Yoda stuff to not spoil it they lost out on tons of merch money for that as well. I have seen almost no ROS merch around either. (unlike say Frozen which is everywhere)

I cant speak to the Mandalorian I havent watched it...but I have heard good and bad things about it. I will maintain they should build the brand up with TV stuff like that though.

 

[dhandler01]

Early Monday estimate from BOT - 14.25m.

NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: Monday 1st Projection Page 1.

Jedi Jats screen crawl at the beginning of that thread is GOLD! That number...yeesh. Under $500 DOM is solidly in play now

 

[Stark Bauer]

Star Wars has the most potential at the box office of all the Disney franchises. It’s film division is simply headed by the most incapable and wrongly suited, who scorned the auteur who gave it its life. Favreau and Filoni in charge would ensure that Star Wars will reach its full potential and they likewise respect and consult with George Lucas and ask for his input and INCLUDE his input.

Yeah, people called Avengers 1 a lightning in a bottle moment at the time too. I never thought TFA or Avengers 1 were lightning in a bottle moments to the degree of something like Titanic. A Titanic 2 obviously isn't going to do anything close to the original. The success of Star Wars and a team comic universe is something that can be replicated. I think all the Avengers sequels proved me right with the slightly mixed reception AoU making nearly the same as the massively hyped original and the 2 larger scale films blowing it away (the final one making not far off double). SW also has had a number of so called LiaB moments with the original, TPM and TFA. In the first 2 case the films that followed all still did well, bouncing back further with the finality of their 3rd entries. Many of the people complaining are fans who are or were in the market for many rewatches of TLJ, Solo and TROS. I always though I'd watch the final film 10 times for eg and I'm not exactly the most vocal, unsatisfied fan.

Frankly, if they had a fan event (much like Marvel Studios does with their 20 film marathons) and re released the OT without the CG in theatres, I will go and see them again even the prequels. But not the ST

 

[Stark Bauer]

The 10 year gap, the hated prequels,

The prequels were not universally hated or hated by the hardcore fans. They are masterpieces in comparison to the ST. Honestly the PM was a 6.5-7/10 it was above average but not quite at the level of the OT. AOC was mediocre but built on the established lore- 5-6/10. Revenge of the Sith was actually pretty good, 7-8/10. George Lucas would have done a ST light years better than what we got.

Merch sales is way down. Hell by holding off on the Baby Yoda stuff to not spoil it they lost out on tons of merch money for that as well. I have seen almost no ROS merch around either. (unlike say Frozen which is everywhere)

I cant speak to the Mandalorian I havent watched it...but I have heard good and bad things about it. I will maintain they should build the brand up with TV stuff like that though.

The Mandalorian is a masterpiece and is as good if not better than the OT - I am a hardcore Boba Fett fan and it SURPASSED all my expectations which rarely happens in all my life. It’s basically Star Wars + Firefly + Spaghetti Westerns + Terminator 2 + Gremlins + Children Of Men