The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[Spider-Fan]

What's it sitting at now?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What's it sitting at now?

Worldwide? 945.9 as of Wednesday.

 

[Stark Bauer]

86% drop from last week...it is going to be a slow crawl to 1 billion.

on the bright side it is holding up pretty well internationally.

It is truly sad that a mainline entry into the SW TRILOGY will not even make as much as a spin-off (Rogue One).

Rogue One:
Grosses
DOMESTIC (50.4%)
$532,177,324
INTERNATIONAL (49.6%)
$523,879,949
WORLDWIDE
$1,056,057,273

Projected Gross for Rise of Skywalker:
Grosses
DOMESTIC (48.0%)
$500,000,000
INTERNATIONAL (52.0%)
$540,000,000
WORLDWIDE
$1,040,000,000

worst case scenario
$486 dom
$513 int
999 WW

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Finishing under Rogue One seems likely but I don’t think it’s quite a lock yet. Domestic looks like it will top out in the 505-510 range, tho I could see a bit more if weekend holds are good. We’ll see.

 

[dhandler01]

It might finish just ahead of RO but not enough to be noticeable and certainly not enough for Di$ney to think of it as anything positive.

Meanwhile Joker sits there laughing as it stays higher (without China) and rakes in awards

WB and Di$ney should take note...the more you spend and meddle the less people like the films.

 

[spiderman2]

86% drop from last week...it is going to be a slow crawl to 1 billion.

on the bright side it is holding up pretty well internationally.

It is truly sad that a mainline entry into the SW TRILOGY will not even make as much as a spin-off (Rogue One).

Rogue One:
Grosses
DOMESTIC (50.4%)
$532,177,324
INTERNATIONAL (49.6%)
$523,879,949
WORLDWIDE
$1,056,057,273

Projected Gross for Rise of Skywalker:
Grosses
DOMESTIC (48.0%)
$500,000,000
INTERNATIONAL (52.0%)
$540,000,000
WORLDWIDE
$1,040,000,000

worst case scenario
$486 dom
$513 int
999 WW

ww below 1 billion is not going to happen come on now. It will be at around 980 by the end of the weekend. No way its only doing 19 million more after this weekend. It will do at least 19 million more just DOM after this weekend. 486 DOM no way it will be around 479 by the end of sunday.

 

[Mani-Man]

WB and Di$ney should take note...the more you spend and meddle the less people like the films.

You would think that this is logical as hell, but seemingly not.
I get studios want to make sure that they get the money back they invest, but even as a child you learn that too many cooks ruin the meal.

When i look at justice league or now star wars, i truly wonder where studios look at with this movies.
I get that the comic and star wars fans a messy bunch, but you dont have to look hard to find hundreds of lists, videos discussion etc for what the fans want.
I mean alone with Star Wars, i hardly think you find many fans who have in any kind of form gone and stated: "You know what would be cool for a sequel trilogy? Have Luke hide on a lone planet from everybody and wallow in self pity"

Sure it is more creative than going with the legends stuff or so...but just for the sake of being different doesnt always mean "better".

 

[Mandon Knight]

I’ve yet to see it, so I hope my $10 will make a difference.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline:

Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker led all movies in regular release yesterday with an estimated $2.1M, -10% from Wednesday, and a $46M third week. Current running domestic cume of $463.1M, is running 16% behind Last Jedi through three weeks which was at $549M at this point in time. Skywalker looks to have a fourth weekend between $17M-$19M.

17-19 still seems ridiculously optimistic to me, but whatever, you do you, deadline.

ETA:

 

[dhandler01]

Deadline stopped pretending they knew what they were doing weeks ago. At least they finally gave up the "$600 million" ghost.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

TROS Multiplier advantage versus TLJ
Multiplier advantage Week 1 = +0.28 (2.82 + 0.28 * $177.4M = $550M TROS final domestic total)
Multiplier advantage Week 2 = +0.24 (2.82 + 0.24 * $177.4M = $543M TROS final domestic total)
Multiplier advantage Week 3 = +0.11 (2.82 + 0.11 * $177.4M = $520M TROS final domestic total)

... and so on ...

If it keeps on decreasing, then the final total shifts downward. If it increases, the final total shifts upward. And TLJ only added another 0.32 to its multiplier between yesterday (Thursday) and its final multiplier.

If TROS final total is $500M, then day it hit 90% is Day 17
If TROS final total is $505M, then day it hit 90% is Day 18
If TROS final total is $510M, then day it hit 90% is Day 20
If TROS final total is $515M, then day it hit 90% is Day 22 (today)
If TROS final total is >=$520M, then day it hit 90% is Day >=22 (today)

 

[dhandler01]

According to BOT ROS crashed and burned in South Korea.

In some OS news, TROS was finally released at SK and it's bombing harder than everyone expected.



It's TOTAL will be lower than what TLJ did on OW alone, and TLJ already flopped there, so it says all.



Wow!

 

[Iceman]

Crazy drop. Star Wars is disappearing in some big territories.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

According to BOT ROS crashed and burned in South Korea.

I'm currently teaching in South Korea and went to see RoS opening night, there were only three other people in the theater. It's also only showing for, like, three or four days.

Star Wars is practically the big budget blockbuster movie version of Xbox in Asia. Almost a complete nonentity .

 

[dataSlave]

The Numbers has Friday at $3.92 million (-64%). On the surface not a good number but decent IMO with 1917 opening strong in wide release this weekend.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Deadline:

17-19 still seems ridiculously optimistic to me, but whatever, you do you, deadline.

ETA:

agreed. More like 12-15 million if we are being realistic. The 17-19 estimate is probably a typo as they meant to write 1917 will be BO king

 

[Stark Bauer]

TROS Multiplier advantage versus TLJ
Multiplier advantage Week 1 = +0.28 (2.82 + 0.28 * $177.4M = $550M TROS final domestic total)
Multiplier advantage Week 2 = +0.24 (2.82 + 0.24 * $177.4M = $543M TROS final domestic total)
Multiplier advantage Week 3 = +0.11 (2.82 + 0.11 * $177.4M = $520M TROS final domestic total)

... and so on ...

If it keeps on decreasing, then the final total shifts downward. If it increases, the final total shifts upward. And TLJ only added another 0.32 to its multiplier between yesterday (Thursday) and its final multiplier.

If TROS final total is $500M, then day it hit 90% is Day 17
If TROS final total is $505M, then day it hit 90% is Day 18
If TROS final total is $510M, then day it hit 90% is Day 20
If TROS final total is $515M, then day it hit 90% is Day 22 (today)
If TROS final total is >=$520M, then day it hit 90% is Day >=22 (today)

I appreciate your in depth analytics! But I will wager ROS may not reach $500 million domestic. My prediction of $500 million domestic is a ceiling at this point. International numbers are more unpredictable as it seems to be holding somewhat better...I wager it will make 1 billion worldwide

 

[TheVileOne]

ww below 1 billion is not going to happen come on now. It will be at around 980 by the end of the weekend. No way its only doing 19 million more after this weekend. It will do at least 19 million more just DOM after this weekend. 486 DOM no way it will be around 479 by the end of sunday.

Yeah there's no way it finishes under $500 million domestic.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Disney may drag TROS over $500M if it’s close enough below using tactics that they employed in the past from giving the movie an expansion in theaters like Endgame to double billing like they did for A Wrinkle In Time. There’s tools in the woodshed and options if need be.

How ‘Incredibles 2’ Helped ‘A Wrinkle in Time’ Hit $100 Million at the Box Office

But obviously if it doesn’t fade that badly there’s no need.

 

[jmc]

It's been slow crawl to that billion. I'm not surprised though. Ever since TLJ there's been a JL type of vibe around this last movie. It might not have dropped that far, but for those adamant that the Star Wars brand hasn't been hurt over the last few years, well, the proof is in the pudding. The trajectory for the brand is heading south, and I'm not confident it will ever recover. SW is just another movie franchise now, one that is no longer a guarantee money maker. And that's a sad sight to see.

 

[VSG]

I'm still thinking that, even the brand has good health, it is not the trendy saga and it is not special anymore. And it is not because TLJ or something it is because people care more for other franchise, others messages,etc.
The Prequels were a success but they were sidelined by Harry Potter and Lotr, for example.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[Iceman]

A billion soon then.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm currently teaching in South Korea and went to see RoS opening night, there were only three other people in the theater. It's also only showing for, like, three or four days.

Star Wars is practically the big budget blockbuster movie version of Xbox in Asia. Almost a complete nonentity .

Really? I thought Xbox was only unpopular in Japan.

 

[DarkKnight88]

I'm still thinking that, even the brand has good health, it is not the trendy saga and it is not special anymore. And it is not because TLJ or something it is because people care more for other franchise, others messages,etc.
The Prequels were a success but they were sidelined by Harry Potter and Lotr, for example.

Force Awakens negates that theory.