Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Erzengel]

Shawshank Redemption did poorly at the box office and is probably considered one of the best movies.

Transformers and the latter Pirates movies did extremely well despite piss poor revies.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Where all dem haters at

They seem to have disappeared.....

 

[metaphysician]

Well, we *could* speak up, but all the comments about "Success is bad here, because a successful bad movie will encourage more bad movies" will just get ignored. A reasonably good box office doesn't magically make the writing and most *especially* editing problems suddenly not-exist.

Which is to say, Suicide Squad? Still a terrible movie, just a terrible movie that managed to make money.

 

[JKKS085]

First I'll refrain from speaking out about the quality of Man of Steel since I am yet to enjoy any film about Superman. The only superhero that bores me more is Wonder Woman.

However, about the reviews - Suicide Squad didn't get the same reviews as Batman v Superman. Sure, both movies had approximately the same rotten score, but the word of mouth and the actual content of the reviews (if anyone bothered to read beyond the percentage) were very different. The consensus about Suicide Squad from both critics and the general audience, professional gushers and bashers set aside, seemed to be "a very flawed popcorn movie which despite its shortcomings manages to be rather enjoyable." The consensus about the theatrical cut of Batman v Superman, applying the same criteria, can probably best be described as "a boring mess." This translates to very different numbers and probably goes a long way explaining the latter film's historically weak legs.

For me personally, the setting of Batman v Superman reminded me of the innumerable crossover one-shot comics of both DC and Marvel - think "Spiderman Meets The Hulk!" - and this is an epically cheesy concept, yet the movie really tried hard to take itself seriously and fell flat so hard I couldn't even get through my initial screening. Suicide Squad is much lighter fare and much more tongue-in-cheek. Also - and I realize this might be offensive to some for me to say and may be reaching, but here goes anyway - I think Suicide Squad benefitted to some extent of a "movie Trump effect." Fanboying and fangirling over the movie became a statement of "screw the critics, screw their elitist whining." Tons of journalists complained about the "hypersexualized" Harlequin. Guess what, most men (and bizarrely enough in this case apparently also tons of women) like watching sexy girls.

Anyway, my five cents...

That sounds about right. Suicide Squad would be about as much a mess of a movie as BvS but was "saved" by its fun factor. I haven't watched Suicide Squad but I have no problem believing that it is more enjoyable as a movie going experience than BvS which aside from being a very self-serious poorly written and directed movie was also a snoozefest for about 2/3rd of its running time.

Although if I can offer some perspective Suicide Squad's domestic legs are going end up being historically weak as well for an origin movie or an ensemble in the genre. I don't have time to do the research but I think that it's going to have one of the weakest multiplier in the genre for a non-sequel save for Man of Steel, X-Men Origins Wolverine and box office disasters such as Green Lantern and Fant4stic.

 

[idiot09]

Shawshank Redemption did poorly at the box office and is probably considered one of the best movies.

Transformers and the latter Pirates movies did extremely well despite piss poor revies.

And there are many good movies that did well at the BO and many bad movies that did badly.

I personally think SS is a okayish movie that was very entertaining and did very well at the BO,that will be beneficial for the DCEU as a whole,but the negative reactions critically will also make sure that the editing room shenanigans stop.Considering major changes bts already happened post BvS(Johns/Berg being promoted etc) I'm not to worried for now.SS needed to be a financial hit,and it was,so the DCEU fan in me is relieved,and eagerly waiting for better movies to come.

 

[JKKS085]

the DCEU fan in me is relieved,and eagerly waiting for better movies to come.

I wouldn't hold my breathe.

If anything Suicide Squad's bo returns show that they can still release mediocre movies and get away with it from a financial standpoint, that they can still heavily interfere with their directors creative vision, end up with another critical dud and still turn a decent profit. As metaphysician puts it "success is bad here, because a successful bad movie will encourage more bad movies".

Wonder Woman bts issues notwithstanding I think there's really nothing to be hopeful about in the short term. Justice League is still being directed by Snyder and Johns came on board too late to have any significant input on that movie (and I fully expect his input to be as beneficial to JL as Terrio's was to BvS, we're probably looking at another case of too many cooks). And Johns himself, as a writer, is some kind of a hit or miss guy. He is not the man of providence whose influence is suddenly going to turn things around for the better. And he isn't the only one calling the shots either.

Look the thing is every movie they released until now was supposed to initiate some sort of course correction. Man of Steel opened to mediocre reviews and turned barely acceptable numbers at the box office so they decided to course correct. They brought the big guns (Batman) and turned the planned sequel into a world building crossover that opened to tepid reviews, barely broke even through the course of its theatrical run and didn't came even close to the competition not only in terms of profits but in brand recognition and public goodwill as well (which, make no mistake, was DC's goal here). And then they engaged in another course correction by not only promoting Johns and Berg but also by heavily interfering with Suicide Squad's post-production, ordering costly reshoots and hoping to finally get a well received movie with a break out hit potential and broad appeal ala Guardians of The Galaxy which, even if Suicide Squad will turn a decent profit, they did not get. There's a pattern here. Every time they release a movie that did not meet their expectations (either because they are poorly received or didn't make as much money as anticipated) they make stupid decisions that negatively affect their next movie. Do we have any indication that this is going to change ?

 

[Juan1193]

So what do you guys think is behind the success of Suicide Squad?

It got approximately the the same reviews as BVS, and worse reviews than MOS. but it's poised to do better than MOS BoxOffice wise. And percent wise it's legs are better than BVS's.

While I understand BVS had the trailer 2 debacle. I think MOS had a fantastic marketing campaign with all three main trailers (especially the third being phenomenal).

Just asking? IMO SS edges out BVS, but both aren't as good as MOS in terms of quality. So why is Suicide Squad being recieved so well BoxOffice-wise?

1)An incredibly diverse cast
2)It has a lot of humor and is ultimately a fun movie
3)Huge social media presence
4)It's a movie about villains and DC has the best villains in comics
5)Harley Quinn and multiple strong female characters
6)It's expanding the DCEU

Those are just some reasons I can think of.

 

[Pickleweasel]

That sounds about right. Suicide Squad would be about as much a mess of a movie as BvS but was "saved" by its fun factor. I haven't watched Suicide Squad but I have no problem believing that it is more enjoyable as a movie going experience than BvS which aside from being a very self-serious poorly written and directed movie was also a snoozefest for about 2/3rd of its running time.

Although if I can offer some perspective Suicide Squad's domestic legs are going end up being historically weak as well for an origin movie or an ensemble in the genre. I don't have time to do the research but I think that it's going to have one of the weakest multiplier in the genre for a non-sequel save for Man of Steel and box office disasters such as Green Lantern and Fant4stic.

SS will make about 180 million domestic after its first weekend which is basically more than Incredible Hulk, captain America, Thor, antman, and more than half the X-men movies made in their entire runs....

 

[ManWithNoName18]

David Ayer thanks fans


David Ayer
David Ayer – Verified account ‏@DavidAyerMovies

@SuicideSquadWB will cross $300 million domestic today. Thank you to all the fans out there!

 

[rashad]

Finishing in second was Suicide Squad with an estimated $12.8 million as its domestic cume has reached $300.2 million, becoming the eighth 2016 release to hit that mark.

Domestic: $300,217,209 44.4%
+ Foreign: $375,500,000 55.6%
= Worldwide: $675,717,209
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=dc2016.htm

 

[brandeezy89]

I wouldn't hold my breathe.

If anything Suicide Squad's bo returns show that they can still release mediocre movies and get away with it from a financial standpoint, that they can still heavily interfere with their directors creative vision, end up with another critical dud and still turn a decent profit. As metaphysician puts it "success is bad here, because a successful bad movie will encourage more bad movies".

Wonder Woman bts issues notwithstanding I think there's really nothing to be hopeful about in the short term. Justice League is still being directed by Snyder and Johns came on board too late to have any significant input on that movie (and I fully expect his input to be as beneficial to JL as Terrio's was to BvS, we're probably looking at another case of too many cooks). And Johns himself, as a writer, is some kind of a hit or miss guy. He is not the man of providence whose influence is suddenly going to turn things around for the better. And he isn't the only one calling the shots either.

Look the thing is every movie they released until now was supposed to initiate some sort of course correction. Man of Steel opened to mediocre reviews and turned barely acceptable numbers at the box office so they decided to course correct. They brought the big guns (Batman) and turned the planned sequel into a world building crossover that opened to tepid reviews, barely broke even through the course of its theatrical run and didn't came even close to the competition not only in terms of profits but in brand recognition and public goodwill as well (which, make no mistake, was DC's goal here). And then they engaged in another course correction by not only promoting Johns and Berg but also by heavily interfering with Suicide Squad's post-production, ordering costly reshoots and hoping to finally get a well received movie with a break out hit potential and broad appeal ala Guardians of The Galaxy which, even if Suicide Squad will turn a decent profit, they did not get. There's a pattern here. Every time they release a movie that did not meet their expectations (either because they are poorly received or didn't make as much money as anticipated) they make stupid decisions that negatively affect their next movie. Do we have any indication that this is going to change ?

Affleck and Johns are rewriting the script during filming and the reshoots were because Joker was originally in the 3rd act. Also the reshoots were around 13M, it's not like they pulled a Rogue One and reshot 30-40% of the movie.

 

[JKKS085]

SS will make about 180 million domestic after its first weekend which is basically more than Incredible Hulk, captain America, Thor, antman, and more than half the X-men movies made in their entire runs....

And will end up with a domestic multiplier weaker than any of those films (save for X-Men Origins Wolverine) which is what I was talking about in the first place.

 

[Pickleweasel]

An will end up with a global multiplier weaker than any of those films (save for X-Men Origins Wolverine) which is what I was talking about.

Global multiplier would be a stupid way to measure success since some movies can open in 5 territories and others in 50

 

[Angel0fDeath]

Domestic: $300,217,209 44.4%
+ Foreign: $375,500,000 55.6%
= Worldwide: $675,717,209
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=dc2016.htm

 

[JKKS085]

Affleck and Johns are rewriting the script during filming and the reshoots were because Joker was originally in the 3rd act. Also the reshoots were around 13M, it's not like they pulled a Rogue One and reshot 30-40% of the movie.

Which is precisely what I said by talking about another case of too many cooks. Batman v Superman had Terrio rewriting Goyer's script during filming and see how that turned out.

And wether or not the Suicide Squad reshoots only pertained to the 3rd act (which I don't think is 100% accurate when your movie is undergoing "major additional photography") it's something that obviously interfered with Ayer's original vision (given how disjointed the film seems) and a bad decision that lead to another poorly received outing (editing issues are from what I can gather people's main issue with the movie which is an obvious sign of studio interference).

 

[JKKS085]

Global multiplier would be a stupid way to measure success since some movies can open in 5 territories and others in 50

I meant domestic multiplier. Sorry.

 

[brandeezy89]

Which is precisely what I said by talking about another case of too many cooks. Batman v Superman had Terrio rewriting Goyer's script during filming and see how that turned out.

And wether or not the Suicide Squad reshoots only pertained to the 3rd act (which I don't think is 100% accurate when your movie is undergoing "major additional photography") it's something that obviously interfered with Ayer's original vision (given how disjointed the film seems) and a bad decision that lead to another poorly received outing (editing issues are from what I can gather people's main issue with the movie which is an obvious sign of studio interference).

Terrio didn't rewrite the film during filming, the film was delayed to give him time to rewrite it. If you read the original script, there weren't a lot of scenes that were cut from the movie outside of the Joker. But i believe Harley and Joker's relationship is why the movie was edited weird. Ayer is sort of at fault there which caused WB to try to cut out the abusive relationship which if left in, would've cause boycotts and outrage no matter if it's in the source material or not

 

[Legendver2]

And will end up with a domestic multiplier weaker than any of those films (save for X-Men Origins Wolverine) which is what I was talking about in the first place.

So a multiplier of 2.2 compared to CW's 2.3 is a bad thing?

You gotta keep in mind now that the landscape has more or less changed now starting from pretty much this year. These CBM films have massive marketing campaigns pre-release, which will result in extremely frontloaded grosses, regardless of brand. Legs will inevitably get weaker, especially with all this competition coming out, and many other franchises reviving and cinematic universes starting. The game has changed, and most tentpoles now will have a good 1-2 weeks to make most of its frontloaded money before they crawl and inch to whatever final gross they'll end up with.

 

[idiot09]

So a multiplier of 2.2 compared to CW's 2.3 is a bad thing?

And lets not forget if SS gets to $310M+ which its looks like it certainly will,it will have a multiplier close to 2.35 which is nothing to scoff at.

 

[LoganGambit87]

And lets not forget if SS gets to $310M+ which its looks like it certainly will,it will have a multiplier close to 2.35 which is nothing to scoff at.

not to mention its foreign box office business is very good especially without china

it has 375 Million without china in Foreign BO and it still has japan to open up in for example GOTG is 344 Million Foreign without its china BO and Days Of Future Past is 397 Million without its china BO

 

[Marvin]

Domestic: $300,217,209 44.4%
+ Foreign: $375,500,000 55.6%
= Worldwide: $675,717,209
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=dc2016.htm

Not bad. 40 million more globally is likely something the studio(and fans) have it's eye on.

In the face of these films success it's always a new caveat the detractors tend hold onto. With the previous dceu films it was always the hypothetical 'should have' due to the supposed brand power. A measure of hypothetical failure due to a hypothetical benchmark, neither backed up by facts. If applied elsewhere one would hold the higher budgeted CW avengers in disguise movie accountable for not making 400million more(200dom) in the face of the lower budgeted spiderman free Avengers film of yesterday. Success is success, momentum and novelty are conduits but not something to be easily measured. Production budgets, I could get behind if only the numbers were ever provable beyond convenience it seems. I'm now reading mos made alot more then said reports were suggesting prior to this year, just in time for the new installment. I digress, for it seems the new 'success caveat' thrown at the situation is that of multiplier, rather "non sequel multiplier", for the former alone won't do it, and there will be one after that to be sure. Still, the discussion is forced upon us and thus, circumstances will be put forth, such as: is SS a "non sequel"? One in the way these other films are? Coming off of an recent event like these other films? Surely.

Anyways, keeping things on topic.
300/700 plus, at the time of announcement I figured it would be phase one numbers for sure(respectable imo). After seeing it even more so.
I imagine the suits and accountants are looking at 2016 summer fare like: ID4(part2), StarTrekBeyond, Through the Looking Glass, and Tarzan all with almost the same 'listed' budget as this one and working from there, financial failure really does take some work.

Yes as someone said, congrats to fans, something you like is successful and finding an audience. I say the same to all fans that have something they enjoy detracted as is the case with all of these movies in reality.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Domestic: $300,217,209 44.4%
+ Foreign: $375,500,000 55.6%
= Worldwide: $675,717,209
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=dc2016.htm

Congrats to SS for topping $300 million domestic. And WW is very good considering no China. It may not have wowed critics but it clearly found an audience and that's what counts.

 

[brandeezy89]

People **** on WB but they've made more money than they've lost this year with their small budget films and horror movies. They don't even have Fantastic Beasts out yet either even though it'll be a big budget film like BvS (Around 225M)

 

[JKKS085]

So a multiplier of 2.2 compared to CW's 2.3 is a bad thing?

You gotta keep in mind now that the landscape has more or less changed now starting from pretty much this year. These CBM films have massive marketing campaigns pre-release, which will result in extremely frontloaded grosses, regardless of brand. Legs will inevitably get weaker, especially with all this competition coming out, and many other franchises reviving and cinematic universes starting. The game has changed, and most tentpoles now will have a good 1-2 weeks to make most of its frontloaded money before they crawl and inch to whatever final gross they'll end up with.

CW is the third film in the Captain America franchise and the 13th movie in the MCU. SS is the first film in its titular franchise and only the third film within the DCEU. I'll let that sink in because multipliers usually get smaller after each installement which is certain to affect WB's bottom line. I'll let you imagine what the multipliers will look like after Suicide Squad 3 (if we ever get there) or the 13th DCEU film. Point is no other MCU origin film posted multipliers as low as the DCEU movies.

And when it comes to landscape changes, Jungle Book scored a 3.5 multiplier, Deadpool did 2.75 (opening roughly on par with SS, with insane hype and crazy marketing campaign), Jason Bourne did 2.65 with mixed reviews (and that's the 5th movie in the franchise), Star Trek Beyond did 2.62 (and again that's the third movie in the new series) both facing stiff competition. DCEU films are posting unusualy low multipliers for origin movies, superhero ensembles/crossovers. That's a fact. Maybe I'll revise my stance if Strange is well received and score a sub 2.5 multiplier but I doubt it.

 

[FunkMiller]

People **** on WB but they've made more money than they've lost this year with their small budget films and horror movies. They don't even have Fantastic Beasts out yet either even though it'll be a big budget film like BvS (Around 225M)

Paramount are the ones who have taken it in the ass this year. Repeatedly. WB can consider this an okay year overall so far... And certainly better than recent!