Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[FunkMiller]

So what do you guys think is behind the success of Suicide Squad?

It got approximately the the same reviews as BVS, and worse reviews than MOS. but it's poised to do better than MOS BoxOffice wise. And percent wise it's legs are better than BVS's.

While I understand BVS had the trailer 2 debacle. I think MOS had a fantastic marketing campaign with all three main trailers (especially the third being phenomenal).

Just asking? IMO SS edges out BVS, but both aren't as good as MOS in terms of quality. So why is Suicide Squad being recieved so well BoxOffice-wise?

It was fun.

A hot ****ing mess of a movie, with some of the worst editing in history, but it was still good for a laugh, had some great characters, and didn't take itself too seriously.

BvS was an overwrought, overlong depressing slog that desperately wanted to be IMPORTANT and forgot it needed to be entertaining... and fun.

 

[JKKS085]

Terrio didn't rewrite the film during filming, the film was delayed to give him time to rewrite it. If you read the original script, there weren't a lot of scenes that were cut from the movie outside of the Joker. But i believe Harley and Joker's relationship is why the movie was edited weird. Ayer is sort of at fault there which caused WB to try to cut out the abusive relationship which if left in, would've cause boycotts and outrage no matter if it's in the source material or not

WB greenlighting a movie with story details they realized afterwards they were not comfortable with leading to reshoots and alterations that ultimately compromised the director's vision is a major problem.
And yes indeed Terrio did rewrites on BvS before it started shooting, it's Affleck that reportedly did rewrites during filming. Again too many cooks. It actually doesn't matter if they intervene before, after or during filming because all of those films lack a cohesive vision leading to mediocre end results. And they're showing no signs of improvement. But hey maybe Suicide Squad will lead to more course correction and they'll manage to botch Wonder Woman's release as well.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

Paramount are the ones who have taken it in the ass this year. Repeatedly. WB can consider this an okay year overall so far... And certainly better than recent!

I saw an article on only he summer movie hits and Disney made.the most money but WB produced the most amount of movie successes.

 

[Legendver2]

Lol this thread man. So now that SS has crushed initial skepticism in terms of BO, making more than what detractors thought it would make, all of a sudden the conversation turns into it's multiplier not being good enough. $300m DOM is $300m DOM, $675m WW is $675m WW. I don't care whatever multiplier it ends up with. This film was a success financially, and it's still playing in theaters, not to mention still unreleased in Japan. To argue otherwise is foolish.

 

[LoganGambit87]

Lol this thread man. So now that SS has crushed initial skepticism in terms of BO, making more than what detractors thought it would make, all of a sudden the conversation turns into it's multiplier not being good enough. $300m DOM is $300m DOM, $675m WW is $675m WW. I don't care whatever multiplier it ends up with. This film was a success financially, and it's still playing in theaters, not to mention still unreleased in Japan. To argue otherwise is foolish.

right lol seriously only 14 other comic book movies in history have 300 million domestically or higher

 

[Knight-Tale]

If Deadpool didn't come out this year Fox would not be in a good position after X-men Apocalypse but since Deadpool came out they can sit and pretend that under performance was good
That's how the bottom line for studios work

If BvS didn't under perform WB would not have had to put so much pressure pressure on Suicide Squad but then you also have to wonder would a darker more somber suicide squad movie be making this much money?

 

[Marvin]

If BvS didn't under perform WB would not have had to put so much pressure pressure on Suicide Squad but then you also have to wonder would a darker more somber suicide squad movie be making this much money?

Under performed as it may have BvS is the studios top earner this year by a significant margin. Moreover the dc films are the only things keeping the studio in the top 20 this year(Radcliff free, harry potter reboot pending).
Safe to say the studio realizes just what these films mean to their bottom line, particularly in terms of yearly market share.
I would point out that the top 5 with the exception of Dory(a domestic monster), all likely have some mega china numbers. The studio probably also realizes what those kinda numbers would do for their top two films. One utterly robbed of screens the other banned.

Given Potters history, I don't expect the studio expects big things from china there either.

 

[rayc1971]

675mill ww its getting over 700mill ww for the people that said it wouldnt

 

[Erzengel]

And there are many good movies that did well at the BO and many bad movies that did badly.

I personally think SS is a okayish movie that was very entertaining and did very well at the BO,that will be beneficial for the DCEU as a whole,but the negative reactions critically will also make sure that the editing room shenanigans stop.Considering major changes bts already happened post BvS(Johns/Berg being promoted etc) I'm not to worried for now.SS needed to be a financial hit,and it was,so the DCEU fan in me is relieved,and eagerly waiting for better movies to come.

It just seems in the past 18 years there have been more exceptions to the rules which may or may not be the rise of multiple blockbusters each year.

Once upon a time, if a movie did really well was because of quality. Now you have movies, that can be extremely panned and still do well. It's not necessarily uncommon anymore.

 

[LoganGambit87]

It just seems in the past 18 years there have been more exceptions to the rules which may or may not be the rise of multiple blockbusters each year.

Once upon a time, if a movie did really well was because of quality. Now you have movies, that can be extremely panned and still do well. It's not necessarily uncommon anymore.

this year alone alot of the panned movies did not do well especially ones that are sequels to successful films

Zoolander 2 - 55 million
Gods Of Egypt - 145 million
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 - 88 Million (first film did 368 Million)
The Huntsman: Winter's War - 164 Million (first film made 396 Million)
Alice Through the Looking Glass - 295 Million (first film made 1 Billion)
Independence Day: Resurgence - 383 Million (first film made 817 million)
Ghostbusters made 219 million on a 145 million budget(lost studio 70 Million)
Warcraft - 433 Million (didn't even make 50 million domestically)
TMNT: Out of the Shadows - 244 Million(first film did 493 Million)

 

[MadVillainy]

So what do you guys think is behind the success of Suicide Squad?

It got approximately the the same reviews as BVS, and worse reviews than MOS. but it's poised to do better than MOS BoxOffice wise. And percent wise it's legs are better than BVS's.

While I understand BVS had the trailer 2 debacle. I think MOS had a fantastic marketing campaign with all three main trailers (especially the third being phenomenal).

Just asking? IMO SS edges out BVS, but both aren't as good as MOS in terms of quality. So why is Suicide Squad being recieved so well BoxOffice-wise?

It was more fun and it had a really good release date. Release date is everything not even just for DC. Deadpool and to a lesser extent Kingsman were received I really don't think they wouldve done that well as they did if they released them with heavy competition. What action film or "accessible" film was going to give SS serious competition? And that goes for Deadpool and BvS too. And I'd also even say Civil War...I know that sounds crazy but Civil War didn't have much competition until Apocalypse at least here in America. I think if it was released around heavy competition it would have done as well. Still wouldve done gangbusters though
Remember when TMNT2014 came out August and did well, but then they released an, arguably, better movie and released it in June? Out of the Shadows made less than half of the first movie.

If WB, or FOX, or whoever is smart they'll keep putting these movies in good release dates. We've seen how an overcrowded market (among other things) can hurt a lot of films this summer even if they're widely considered to be good movies.

JL release date is prime. A couple weeks after Thor 3 and a month before Star Wars and the holiday movie rush.

 

[JKKS085]

This isn't a typical ensemble film. Unless you count Iron Man 2 as an ensemble. There were more known characters in that film than Suicide Squad. I could even argue Deadpool was an ensemble film, or Thor, or any MCU film. Truth be told you are trying to box Suicide Squad into a certain genre of film only when it fits your multiplier argument when it truly doesn't fit at all as far as precedent. I could argue that the DCEU is more successful because their first 3 films have grossed more than the MCU first 4 but again that is one small piece of evidence from a biased point of view much like your multiplier argument.

Oh yes of course, Nick Fury, Black Widow and Coulson are A-listers whilst Batman, The Joker & Harley Quinn are underground characters and I still can't figure out which character arc is more prevalent in Thor, Thor's or Heimdall's.

All kidding aside, Suicide Squad is an ensemble film in the true sense of the term as it features a set of characters that are roughly assigned equal amounts of importance and screentime. That's not debatable.

Now let me ask you, if I'm incorrectly boxing SS into a genre it doesn't belong to, what type of films should I compare it to ? And you would actually be right about the first 3 DC films grossing more than the first 4 MCU films. That is undeniable, it is something we could discuss and try to put in perspective but pretty much like SS' multiplier it's a fact. Now you make whatever you want out of those numbers but here they are.

 

[MadVillainy]

Oh yes of course, Nick Fury, Black Widow and Coulson are A-listers whilst Batman, The Joker & Harley Quinn are underground characters and I still can't figure out which character arc is more prevalent in Thor, Thor's or Heimdall's.

All kidding aside, Suicide Squad is an ensemble film in the true sense of the term as it features a set of characters that are roughly assigned equal amounts of importance and screentime. That's not debatable.

Now let me ask you, if I'm incorrectly boxing SS into a genre it doesn't belong to, what type of films should I compare it to ? And you would actually be right about the first 3 DC films grossing more than the first 4 MCU films. That is undeniable, it is something we could discuss and try to put in perspective but pretty much like SS' multiplier it's a fact. Now you make whatever you want out of those numbers but here they are.

I mean when you adjust for Inflation SS didn't do better than IM1&2 domestically at least. SS wipes the floor with Cap & Thor though

But Bringing up movies outgrossing other movies that came out 6-8 years ago is pointless unless you bring up the inflation as well. SS is a success in it's own right.

 

[JKKS085]

JL release date is prime. A couple weeks after Thor 3 and a month before Star Wars and the holiday movie rush.

JL is up against a Pixar film (Coco) a week after its release.
Essentially it is sandwiched between a Marvel Studios release, a Pixar film and a Star Wars movie with possible strong counterprogramming if Creed 2 and Murder on the Orient Express keep their november release dates.
It's not awful but not as good as BvS or SS. I think April 2018 would be a much safer spot but given that they already have Tomb Raider and Ready Player One scheduled for March they're probably gonna try to avoid competing against themselves (and more direct comparison with Infinity War).

 

[Greenlite]

and 2 more reasons SS did well at b.o. -

1. Shared universe
2. A mediocre and simple plot - there seem to be a trend where blockbuster audiences prefer simple, popcorn stories that are easy to follow and does not require brain activities, I talked to someone earlier and he dislikes superhero movies with complex plot/social commentary and prefers straight up stories, if BvS was not an acceptable example then CW is quite a good one too, 2.3X for a Marvel film that's very political and personal, and critically raved, but will get worse legs than SS.

 

[MadVillainy]

and 2 more reasons SS did well at b.o. -

1. Shared universe
2. A mediocre and simple plot - there seem to be a trend where blockbuster audiences prefer simple, popcorn stories that are easy to follow and does not require brain activities, I talked to someone earlier and he dislikes superhero movies with complex plot/social commentary and prefers straight up stories, if BvS was not an acceptable example then CW is quite a good one too, 2.3X for a Marvel film that's very political and personal, and critically raved, but will get worse legs than SS.

That's nothing new heh. Look at The Avengers. That film has a simple story and I'm not criticizing it for it I'm just using it as an example to show how well a simple story can go.

JL is up against a Pixar film (Coco) a week after its release.
Essentially it is sandwiched between a Marvel Studios release, a Pixar film and a Star Wars movie with possible strong counterprogramming if Creed 2 and Murder on the Orient Express keep their november release dates.
It's not awful but not as good as BvS or SS. I think April 2018 would be a much safer spot but given that they already have Tomb Raider and Ready Player One scheduled for March they're probably gonna try to avoid competing against themselves (and more direct comparison with Infinity War).

Well shoot I didn't know that.

I wouldnt worry about Orient Express and Creed 2 I doubt comes out in Nov 2017

 

[Greenlite]

CW is the third film in the Captain America franchise and the 13th movie in the MCU. SS is the first film in its titular franchise and only the third film within the DCEU. I'll let that sink in because multipliers usually get smaller after each installement which is certain to affect WB's bottom line. I'll let you imagine what the multipliers will look like after Suicide Squad 3 (if we ever get there) or the 13th DCEU film. Point is no other MCU origin film posted multipliers as low as the DCEU movies.

And when it comes to landscape changes, Jungle Book scored a 3.5 multiplier, Deadpool did 2.75 (opening roughly on par with SS, with insane hype and crazy marketing campaign), Jason Bourne did 2.65 with mixed reviews (and that's the 5th movie in the franchise), Star Trek Beyond did 2.62 (and again that's the third movie in the new series) both facing stiff competition. DCEU films are posting unusualy low multipliers for origin movies, superhero ensembles/crossovers. That's a fact. Maybe I'll revise my stance if Strange is well received and score a sub 2.5 multiplier but I doubt it.

your argument re: sequels getting smaller multipliers is true, however, sequels also get bigger OW and more frontloaded (IM1-2-3, Thor/Cap, Avengers series OW is going downhill for some reason (Av/AOU/CW)), so hypothetically SS could get a 150M+ OW with a 2.2 multiplier next time which would give them 330M+, and that won't bother WB one bit.

 

[Greenlite]

That's nothing new heh. Look at The Avengers. That film has a simple story and I'm not criticizing it for it I'm just using it as an example to show how well a simple story can go

Remember there was a time when The Dark Knight and Inception were making a killing at the box office?

 

[LoganGambit87]

deadpool made a killing and had a very simple revenge story

 

[MadVillainy]

Remember there was a time when The Dark Knight and Inception were killing the box office?

I'm starting to think it's just the times

While I still think the whole critics bias against dark movies argument is fruitless and not yet provable I did look up something.

I know we're not through the year yet, But look at the top 10 films of 2012 Box office wise. Arguably half these movies could be called "dark" or at the very least not the typical "fun blockbuster" type fare. Skyfall and TDKR made over a billion each.

But Looking at this year so far, 7/10 of the movies are either comedies, animator or the standard blockbuster fare in tone.

I think with how much easier to see the messed up stuff in the world with how it's shared, talked about, etc (because all the stuff that you see has been happening for years it's just not been exposed that much) that audiences don't really wanna see dark movies like that.

But even then that can't really be proven because so many of the "dark" movies this year have had mixed reception to say the least

I dont know we'll have to see how it ends up at the end of the year

 

[Greenlite]

I'm starting to think it's just the times

While I still think the whole critics bias against dark movies argument is fruitless and not yet provable I did look up something.

I know we're not through the year yet, But look at the top 10 films of 2012 Box office wise. Arguably half these movies could be called "dark" or at the very least not the typical "fun blockbuster" type fare. Skyfall and TDKR made over a billion each.

But Looking at this year so far, 7/10 of the movies are either comedies, animator or the standard blockbuster fare in tone.

I think with how much easier to see the messed up stuff in the world with how it's shared, talked about, etc (because all the stuff that you see has been happening for years it's just not been exposed that much) that audiences don't really wanna see dark movies like that.

But even then that can't really be proven because so many of the "dark" movies this year have had mixed reception to say the least

I dont know we'll have to see how it ends up at the end of the year

From personal experience I certainly see a lot more incredible s*** going on on CNN in the last 3 years compared to pre-2012. I always wondered if TDK came out this year, it would get like 60% on RT because it was too dark, not self aware and not enough jokes, and too long

 

[MadVillainy]

From personal experience I certainly see a lot more incredible s*** going on on CNN in the last 3 years compared to pre-2012. I always wondered if TDK came out this year, it would get like 60% on RT because it was too dark, not self aware and not enough jokes, and too long

And that's what I'm saying not just with CNN, on social media too. The way social media acts you would think so many injustices, crimes, etc. weren't happening until the last 2 years.

I think TDK still wouldve been well liked because it's a very good movie that just happens to be dark. It's coherent, has a great villain, inventive action scenes, all around A+ acting.
That's why I'm saying it's hard to tell because most of these so called dark movies releases recently have been divisive for reasons other than their tone.

 

[Jaxon]

BvS TC is probably Batman heavy
BvS UC is clearly a Superman movie as was intended.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Domestic: $300,217,209 44.4%
+ Foreign: $375,500,000 55.6%
= Worldwide: $675,717,209
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=dc2016.htm

SS is doing great, I simply didn't think it would be doing so well without China.

I was away for just one day and then I come back and see the negativity is back with full force around here and I'm lovin' it. t:
Bring it on, DCEU fans/fanboys/fangirls have nothing to worry about. t:t:


SS is a big hit for WB/DCEU and I'm really happy that it's doing so well at the BO and I hope it continues to do well in he next few weeks.

 

[Kathemy]

Back to topic I think trying to brand the Suicide Squad as a "sequel", an "ensemble movie" or a "original movie" is rather irrelevant. We'll see how the sequel does. Right now we can be happy about the title certainly hitting 700 million worldwide and thus leaving no doubt there's profitable business to be had. If the movie had failed, as some apparently wish, there would have been no second chances for that part of the franchise.