Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Legendver2]

It'll hit 600 no problem. But it's gonna be a crawl to 650.

 

[JtheDreamer]

It'll hit 600 no problem. But it's gonna be a crawl to 650.

$650 was what I personally predicted, so it's performance is of no surprise to me.

 

[Pickleweasel]

Do people not realize that this weekend it made $60 million and that 650 million is only $75 million dollars away?

It'll be near 650 by Labor Day

 

[Greenlite]

Weekend Actuals
$20,855,401 -52.1% $262,428,736

http://www.screendaily.com/news/the...e?blocktitle=LATEST-FILM-NEWS&contentID=40562

Anyone know what kind of multipliers Germany gives to its movies?

SS added about 70M over the last week and the weekend drop was 35% or something (adding in Germany of course), but still has Japan to come, say giving it 50% drop from now on, that's 35+18+9+5+3+2+1+1= about 74M, will do another 40M DOM so that's 74+40=114M

114+575=689M WW.

I haven't peaked at what the BOT people are saying but if I got 689M that means it's definitely getting passed 650M easily.

 

[rashad]

700 isn't off the table yet but it's not a lock either. It's going to be very close.

 

[Knight-Tale]

Man of steel numbers without China and some of Mexico is great

 

[Tra-El]

The lack of competition SSQUAD faces that MoS did in the heat of the summer is going to allow it to stay in theaters longer as well. $650 is definitely doable.

 

[Bats123]

The lack of competition SSQUAD faces that MoS did in the heat of the summer is going to allow it to stay in theaters longer as well. $650 is definitely doable.

Yeah they've had NO competition so far so that's helped, and there seems to be no competition for another 2-3 weeks.

 

[kguillou]

So it could conceivably stay #1 for another weekend or two.

 

[Greenlite]

Yeah they've had NO competition so far so that's helped, and there seems to be no competition for another 2-3 weeks.

Also helped by b.o. bombs like Ben Hur, Pete's Dragon, to some extend Kubo in the DOM market. Sausage Party's 57% second week drop - wonder if that's to do with the B cinema score.

Just realized SP has a RT of 82% and only 61% on audience score, while SS went up to 26% and has 68% audience score. So that audience score definitely lines up with the cinema score but the critic score and the cinema score definitely lives on alternate realities.

 

[rashad]

So it could conceivably stay #1 for another weekend or two.

Don't Breathe will be number 1 this weekend. SS should finish 2nd though.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

I don't care how much more it makes, what it already has done is fantastic and its done it's job well. Looks like its audience score will match up with BvS with audiences liking it but not loving it.

 

[rayc1971]

Do people not realize that this weekend it made $60 million and that 650 million is only $75 million dollars away?

It'll be near 650 by Labor Day

looking like it can hit 700mill worldwide

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Anyone know what kind of multipliers Germany gives to its movies?

SS added about 70M over the last week and the weekend drop was 35% or something (adding in Germany of course), but still has Japan to come, say giving it 50% drop from now on, that's 35+18+9+5+3+2+1+1= about 74M, will do another 40M DOM so that's 74+40=114M

114+575=689M WW.

I haven't peaked at what the BOT people are saying but if I got 689M that means it's definitely getting passed 650M easily.

GOTG which released in August made 24 million in Germany and BvS made 18 million there, so I'm expecting minimum 16 million from Germany, that's 10 million more than the current figures.

SS should do reasonably well in Japan and I see it making at least 8-9 million.

Excluding the Germany numbers, the overseas gross in the 3rd weekend is around 31 million and the overall drop is around 47%. Assuming a 60% drop all over the week, the 4 weekday total should be around 12 million and the 4th weekend total should be around 13 million. The total international gross by the end of the 24th day would hafta be 310+(12+13)=335 million. Now in the subsequent weeks assuming closer to 60% drops we get 335+12+5+2+1=355 million and now adding Germany and Japan to the total we would get 355+10+8=373 million.

Now the domestic total is at 262.5 million. I'll say it makes 8 million in 4 weekdays and 11 million in the 4th weekend so the next 7 days would bring the total at 262.5+8+11=281.5 million. The next weekend is the Labour day weekend, so I'll go for 3.5 million in the week days and 12 million in the 5th weekend. Now the domestic gross would hafta be 281.5+3.5+12=297 million. Further 60% drops in the next few weeks would make 297+6+2.5+1=306.5 million.

The overall final WW gross would be 373+307=680 million.

I could be way off with my numbers but I definitely see this getting past MOS WW numbers eventually. t:t:

 

[Greenlite]

GOTG which released in August made 24 million in Germany and BvS made 18 million there, so I'm expecting minimum 16 million from Germany, that's 10 million more than the current figures.

SS should do reasonably well in Japan and I see it making at least 8-9 million.

Excluding the Germany numbers, the overseas gross in the 3rd weekend is around 31 million and the overall drop is around 47%. Assuming a 60% drop all over the week, the 4 weekday total should be around 12 million and the 4th weekend total should be around 13 million. The total international gross by the end of the 24th day would hafta be 310+(12+13)=335 million. Now in the subsequent weeks assuming closer to 60% drops we get 335+12+5+2+1=355 million and now adding Germany and Japan to the total we would get 355+10+8=373 million.

Now the domestic total is at 262.5 million. I'll say it makes 8 million in 4 weekdays and 11 million in the 4th weekend so the next 7 days would bring the total at 262.5+8+11=281.5 million. The next weekend is the Labour day weekend, so I'll go for 3.5 million in the week days and 12 million in the 5th weekend. Now the domestic gross would hafta be 281.5+3.5+12=297 million. Further 60% drops in the next few weeks would make 297+6+2.5+1=306.5 million.

The overall final WW gross would be 373+307=680 million.

I could be way off with my numbers but I definitely see this getting past MOS WW numbers eventually. t:t:

Thanks, using 60% drop International is definitely on the VERY conservative side, and still gave us 680M, so that's very good.

Hope some of the critics will be like, oh I don't want to look out of touch, I will act less like a maniac against DC, and WB will be like, we will not touch Patty's baby, and Wondy movie will be like - FRESH!!

 

[LoganGambit87]

Do people not realize that this weekend it made $60 million and that 650 million is only $75 million dollars away?

It'll be near 650 by Labor Day

i think people pay too much attention to weekend numbers and forget the weekdays this past week it made 19 million just from mon-thurs

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I found something interesting in this artcle.

http://comicbook.com/dc/2016/08/22/is-suicide-squad-a-success-or-failure-for-the-dceu-/

Readers of this site have been pretty kind to Suicide Squad so far, with 2182 of you rating it an average of 4.3 stars -- the third-best score of any superhero movie of all time.

I did like SS but I would not have envisaged it in top CBM list of anything, so there must be something this movie has done right to have been in top 3 no less.

Edit: It's at 62nd in regards to it's composite score though.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

i think people pay too much attention to weekend numbers and forget the weekdays this past week it made 19 million just from mon-thurs

I always consider weekdays numbers when I'm calculating and weekdays are extremely important to ensure good BO figures at the end of a movie's theatrical run. Even in international markets SS notched up an impressive 28 million in the 4 weekdays. t:

 

[Greenlite]

I guess school holiday weekdays can take a bite out of the weekend? Makes sense, and shows how impressive GOTG's drops are, though that film attracted the older demo as well (dont have stats here but saw it somewhere) and SS clearly resonate better with....Transformer crowd..haha.

 

[Kathemy]

The actuals for this weekend were great.

$6,008,693 - $8,646,691 - $6,200,017 (!)

Sunday outscoring Friday!!!

 

[Legendver2]

Monday figures anyone?

 

[JOE]

MOS numbers, not bad. With the amount of competition it had it should have been able to do a bit more but you definitely can't complain with 650-700 if that's where it lands.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Exhibitor Relations
@ERCboxoffice

SUICIDE SQUAD opened #1 in Germany this
weekend w/ $6.9M--international total is now
$313M, worldwide tally $575M.

 

[Micromind]

Did you guys check out the latest Mark Hughes' article?

Apparently Suicide Squad will top Man of Steel's total theatrical earnings. Not that Man of Steel made a lot but the possibility of that happening didn't even cross my mind.

Well, I never thought it would earn that much.

Man Of Steel

Domestic: $291,045,518 43.6%
+ Foreign: $377,000,000 56.4%
-------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $668,045,518

Suicide Squad

Domestic: $262,428,736 45.6%
+ Foreign: $313,000,000 54.4%
-------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $575,428,736

I can see the foreign box office earning 60 or 70 mil more.

 

[dc_mos]

Exhibitor Relations @ERCboxoffice
In North America, SUICIDE SQUAD scored $2.1M on Monday, $264M total.