Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Iceman]

BoxOfficeTheory insiders are thinking $150m OW is looking very, very likely - with a good shot at $165+ if $19m comes in for Thursday previews which presales are indicating.

Couple that with the film's huge buzz in Asian markets, and you have a recipe for $500+ million in NA alone, plus a potential overseas gross matching that of Black Panther. I myself see its potential range as $1-$1.15 billion.

Wow, now we’re talking!

 

[Fallen]

What is that in reference to?

Black Panther.

"bUt... bUt.. bLaCk PaNtHeR fLoPpEd OvErSiAs!!!"

Highest-grossing SOLO superhero movies at the international box office:

1. Aquaman — $806M
2. Iron Man 3 — $805M
3. Black Panther — $646M

 

[JackieBoy]

I'm not sure how legit this profile is, but

 

[Shuri]

Black Panther.

"bUt... bUt.. bLaCk PaNtHeR fLoPpEd OvErSiAs!!!"

Highest-grossing SOLO superhero movies at the international box office:

1. Aquaman — $806M
2. Iron Man 3 — $805M
3. Black Panther — $646M

This annoyed me so much, they kept insisting BP flopped overseas even though it made more than any solo MCU film except for ironman 3.

 

[Smurphftw]

150-160 million seems stupidly high to me. I have no doubt this movie will make a profit and likely a substantial one, but 150 million+ opening weekend? I'm highly skeptical of that. 90 million+ would be a great result.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

150-160 million seems stupidly high to me. I have no doubt this movie will make a profit and likely a substantial one, but 150 million+ opening weekend? I'm highly skeptical of that. 90 million+ would be a great result.

I think it is very possible

 

[Smurphftw]

I think it is very possible

I certainly wouldn't be upset if it did, it just strikes me as being a tad on the optimistic side. We'll see.

 

[Limonade]

150-160 million seems stupidly high to me. I have no doubt this movie will make a profit and likely a substantial one, but 150 million+ opening weekend? I'm highly skeptical of that. 90 million+ would be a great result.

Wait, I don't understand this...

You don't think 150+ is possible (or at least stupidly high) but 90 million would be great? What are you putting this movie at opening weekend, then?

 

[Playco Armboy]

150-160 million seems stupidly high to me. I have no doubt this movie will make a profit and likely a substantial one, but 150 million+ opening weekend? I'm highly skeptical of that. 90 million+ would be a great result.

What's the point of posts like these; it's pretty evident you don't follow the box office lol

It's like expressing skepticism that Lebron might not make the playoffs this year if you don't care about basketball at all.

 

[Spider-Fan]

What's the point of posts like these; it's pretty evident you don't follow the box office lol

It's like expressing skepticism that Lebron might not make the playoffs this year if you care about basketball at all.

The Lakers currently would miss the playoffs, so right now Lebron missing the playoffs looks like a correct prediction.

 

[Playco Armboy]

The Lakers currently would miss the playoffs, so right now Lebron missing the playoffs looks like a correct prediction.

That's my point lool

 

[Smurphftw]

Wait, I don't understand this...

You don't think 150+ is possible (or at least stupidly high) but 90 million would be great? What are you putting this movie at opening weekend, then?

I think its possible just unlikely, and a low 90s to low 100s opening weekend is more realistic.

 

[Limonade]

I think its possible just unlikely, and a low 90s to low 100s opening weekend is more realistic.

Ah. I see. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Zarex]

This annoyed me so much, they kept insisting BP flopped overseas even though it made more than any solo MCU film except for ironman 3.

I thought it was kinda funny. One poster in particular kept insisting that BP's overseas take was disappointing given it's absolutely mind-boggling domestic take. "Third all-time at the US BO is okay, I guess. But I'm holding off on calling it a success until I see how it played in Iceland!"

 

[Smurphftw]

What's the point of posts like these; it's pretty evident you don't follow the box office lol

It's like expressing skepticism that Lebron might not make the playoffs this year if you don't care about basketball at all.

I follow it pretty closely actually. It's a bit of a hobby of mine. I'm not sure why you assume I don't simply because my own personal estimate is more on the conservative side.

It reminds me of when there's a disagreement over a boxing decision and one side refers to the other as being a "casual" even when said casual is in 100% agreement with many other boxing experts.

This stuff is at least as much art as it is science, and my gut tells me that 160 million is overly optimistic. Time will tell.

 

[Mysteryman]

I think its possible just unlikely, and a low 90s to low 100s opening weekend is more realistic.

Why is that more realistic?

 

[Abudefduf]

In any other circumstances $90 million would be perfectly fine, but after all that's happened... not anymore. It's not fair, but it is what it is.

 

[Smurphftw]

Why is that more realistic?

Because less money is easier to attain than more money That alone makes it objectively more realistic.

Other than that I'm just comparing the opening weekend of the other MCU origin movies and adding a bit of pure gut feeling into the mix.

This guys sums up my how I feel pretty well although I think I'm little bit more optimistic overall

Captain Marvel: Full box office projections

 

[Mysteryman]

Because less money is easier to attain than more money That alone makes it objectively more realistic.

Other than I'm just comparing the opening weekend of the other MCU origin movies and adding a bit of pure gut feeling into the mix.

This guys sums up my how I feel pretty well although I think I'm little bit more optimistic overall

Captain Marvel: Full box office projections

If that was the way that it always worked, then we wouldn’t get surprises at the box office like the first Sam Raimi Spider-Man film making well over a 100 million on opening weekend.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I personally think 120 million plus is a lock. But 90-100 is still a huge win.

 

[Mysteryman]

I will take 90-100 million.
But I believe that it will be much more than that.

 

[Limonade]

I will take 90-100 million.
But I believe that it will be much more than that.

I believe this to be the case as well mostly, due to the fact that this film is likely, not only leaving clues to the overall meta storyline, but leading up to the second part of Infinity War.

I know A LOT of friends who will be watching this for the end credits for clues of IW... even if the end credits were attached to a turd of a movie.

Make no mistake... the movie will be entertaining but those that are low balling this movie is really isolating their guesses from the overall structure that Marvel has put in place. I respect their opinions, make no mistake, but in my opinion it's only looking at the movie as if there's no other appeal to the movie other than a new superhero.

 

[Iceman]

Because less money is easier to attain than more money That alone makes it objectively more realistic.

Other than I'm just comparing the opening weekend of the other MCU origin movies and adding a bit of pure gut feeling into the mix.

This guys sums up my how I feel pretty well although I think I'm little bit more optimistic overall

Captain Marvel: Full box office projections

That just makes a lower number PLUS to be more realistic. $1 and 45 cents worldwide isn’t realistic after all.

Also the issue with MCU origin films is that many of them took place before the MCU exploded. It has got much bigger even in the last year.

 

[Smurphftw]

That just makes a lower number PLUS to be more realistic. $1 and 45 cents worldwide isn’t realistic after all.

Also the issue with MCU origin films is that many of them took place before the MCU exploded. It has got much bigger even in the last year.

I'm using Doctor Strange as kind of my baseline. Doctor Strange plus a pinch of Black Panther = Captain Marvel.

Also I think a goal of 1 dollar plus 45 cents is an extremely realistic goal for CM's WW take Even more so the 90 mill. I think it will make that quite easily.

 

[Smurphftw]

I believe this to be the case as well mostly, due to the fact that this film is likely, not only leaving clues to the overall meta storyline, but leading up to the second part of Infinity War.

I know A LOT of friends who will be watching this for the end credits for clues of IW... even if the end credits were attached to a turd of a movie.

Make no mistake... the movie will be entertaining but those that are low balling this movie is really isolating their guesses from the overall structure that Marvel has put in place. I respect their opinions, make no mistake, but in my opinion it's only looking at the movie as if there's no other appeal to the movie other than a new superhero.

That's a fair point. I've read more than few posts that say something like "I'm mostly just seeing it for the end credits scene"

Regardless of the motivations I'm sure Disney will be happy to take their cash.