The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Spider-Fan]

There seems to be so much more room for growth with Marvel too with all these new big properties left to introduce (assuming the rights deal goes through) that haven't even been touched on yet. SW has felt more insular than I was hoping for with the new films. If they'd expanded by having many more races involved as important characters rather than mostly humans I think it would have started feeling a lot larger and like TCW, had many more different places to shoot off to rather than just doing prequels of existing characters and more Episode films. I hope they go that way after this batch of films at least.

I also hope Star Wars expands on new characters and such and we leave the saga/prequels and such for a while. I want original stories set in that world.

 

[Mask&Cape]

Marvel I see moving to 4 films a year maybe even as soon as 2021, so long as the Disney-Fox assets sale finalizes in a timely manner. While maybe Star Wars is right now averaging more money per single film, thus earning higher profit per film, Marvel just is killing it with content and more avenues for revenue, and their films BO potential only keeps rising, while we're seeing Star Wars seeing a slight diminish in returns.

I think right now, Marvel is the dominate force in entertainment. My, how times have changed.

Any additional Marvel properties from Fox could be a lot further away than 2021.

Kevin Feige has said their slate is full as it is and that he wasn't aware the Disney/Fox deal was coming.

Marvel started the MCU 10 years ago and it is all working out because they took their time building it up. Star Wars has a long way to go yet.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Any additional Marvel properties from Fox could be a lot further away than 2021.

Kevin Feige has said their slate is full as it is and that he wasn't aware the Disney/Fox deal was coming.

Marvel started the MCU 10 years ago and it is all working out because they took their time building it up. Star Wars has a long way to go yet.

I know that is what he SAYS, but I don't believe that for a nano-second.

 

[Mask&Cape]

I also hope Star Wars expands on new characters and such and we leave the saga/prequels and such for a while. I want original stories set in that world.

I don't think it is necessary to put away the Saga in order to expanding the GFFA but I do agree that I what to see much more than the Saga story and characters.

And I do want to Star Wars to follow the MCU with crossovers and team ups so I would like the focus of the majority of the movies & TV shows to be post-IX. There would still be room for historical stories like Rogue One, Solo, etc.

 

[Mask&Cape]

I know that is what he SAYS, but I don't believe that for a nano-second.

There is no reason not to take the man at his word as has no reason to lie.

 

[Mask&Cape]

However, I am looking forward to the eventual reboots of Fantastic Four and X-Men in order to fit into the MCU.

X-Men would fit nicely in the Inhumans story that Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. has started

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Week 7 ended on Thursday.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I know that is what he SAYS, but I don't believe that for a nano-second.

Absolutely, Disney as a massive conglomerate has to do research into projected revenue for any potential acquisition. Kevin Fiege and Perlmutter would have had to submit reports to Iger and the Disney CFO with projections of revenue in the event of this purchase and assimilation of new IPs, as would all other divisions who would benefit from the Fox deal. Disney would then have to submit business projections for years to come to the big banks in order to get this deal funded. All the division heads, from Disney toys, to Disney parks, Disney cruise, ABC, ESPN, Pixar, Disney animation, heck maybe even Lucasfilm would submit some kind of impact study. That's just how big multinational conglomerates work.

 

[Zant]

However, I am looking forward to the eventual reboots of Fantastic Four and X-Men in order to fit into the MCU.

X-Men would fit nicely in the Inhumans story that Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. has started

Agents of Shield will be a distant memory by the time the Xmen sets foot in the MCU. They better stick with their Inhumans(the poor man's Xmen) stories..

 

[TheVileOne]

It's a question of whether SW will ever be able to support 3 films a year and even 4 which I think Marvel will move to one day with all the new content they've finally got their hands on. If MCU event films happen as regularly as Episode films and do similar numbers and the next tier of top solos can compete with future SW spinoffs, there is still all the middle of the road and smaller MCU solos that are contributing.

This year for eg is an Episode film year so you have TLJ vs HC, Ragnarok and G2. Next year will be just Solo vs BP, IW and AM&W. Long term it's going to be hard for SW to compete IMO as long as they stay at max 1 film a year, even if it does bigger numbers in its biggest films (which isn't the foregone conclusion it once was any more with TLJ doing less than AoU.

OK, maybe it can't support 3 films a year. But Star Wars isn't just films. It's got TV, video games, books, comics, and movies. It's been able support all those things going at once in the same year.

 

[Iceman]

OK, maybe it can't support 3 films a year. But Star Wars isn't just films. It's got TV, video games, books, comics, and movies. It's been able support all those things going at once in the same year.

TV - I think Marvel is and will be doing a lot more than SW in the near future. All of the solo Netflix shows have been greenlit for another season and overall it seems to have been received well. There are also many more projects in the pipeline (outside of Netflix too)

Video games - There's more Marvel games I know of in the last 2 generations than SW. Although I hope the average quality improves a lot.

Books - I don't know how popular the SW books are but they certainly have more presence here

Comics - t:

Movies - what we're talking about

 

[Iceman]

I also hope Star Wars expands on new characters and such and we leave the saga/prequels and such for a while. I want original stories set in that world.

The prequels were horribly executed but I did like the attempted world-building and TCW gave me exactly what I want. Going forward, the main characters need to not be nearly all human if SW is to feel like a true space opera spread across a vast universe (just IMO).

 

[TheVileOne]

TV - I think Marvel is and will be doing a lot more than SW in the near future. All of the solo Netflix shows have been greenlit for another season and overall it seems to have been received well. There are also many more projects in the pipeline (outside of Netflix too)

Video games - There's more Marvel games I know of in the last 2 generations than SW. Although I hope the average quality improves a lot.

Books - I don't know how popular the SW books are but they certainly have more presence here

Comics - t:

Movies - what we're talking about

Star Wars has tons of mobile games that have in-game purchases. The Battlefront games have sold millions of copies. Those bring in major revenue. What major triple-A games does Marvel have out there right now? There's Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite. Spider-Man by Insomniac coming up. But there's not a whole lot besides the Avengers game.

Guardians of the Galaxy for Telltale not really a traditional AAA game release.

 

[Iceman]

Star Wars has tons of mobile games that have in-game purchases. The Battlefront games have sold millions of copies. Those bring in major revenue. What major triple-A games does Marvel have out there right now? There's Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite. Spider-Man by Insomniac coming up. But there's not a whole lot besides the Avengers game.

Guardians of the Galaxy for Telltale not really a traditional AAA game release.

There's not a whole lot of different AAA games for any franchise. You named one recent one from Star Wars and then named 3 from Marvel and asked why there aren't more. Why aren't there more AAA Star Wars games?

There are loads of SW games altogether sure, but there are also a fair number of Marvel games in the last 2 gens (but they need to go up in quality) as I said. There's some listed here including some mobile and others with in game purchases:

X-Men: The Official Game
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
Spider-Man: Battle for New York
Spider-Man 3
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
Ghost Rider
Spider-Man: Friend or Foe
Iron Man
The Incredible Hulk
Spider-Man: Web of Shadows
X-Men Origins: Wolverine
The Punisher: No Mercy
Marvel Super Hero Squad
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2
Spider-Man: Toxic City
Iron Man 2
Spider-Man: Shattered Dimensions
Marvel Super Hero Squad: The Infinity Gauntlet
Marvel Super Heroes 3D: Grandmaster’s Challenge
Marvel Pinball
Ultimate Spider-Man: Total Mayhem
Marvel vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds
Marvel Super Hero Squad Online
Thor: God of Thunder
Thor: Son of Asgard
Captain America: Super Soldier
Captain America: Sentinel of Liberty
Spider-Man: Edge of Time
X-Men: Destiny
Marvel Super Hero Squad: Comic Combat
Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3
Marvel: Avengers Alliance
MIB: Alien Crisis
Men in Black 3
The Amazing Spider-Man
Marvel vs. Capcom Origins
Marvel: War of Heroes
Marvel Avengers: Battle for Earth
Avengers: Initiative
Iron Man 3: The Official Game
Marvel Heroes
Deadpool
Marvel Puzzle Quest
Lego Marvel Super Heroes
Thor The Dark World: The Official Game
X-Men: Battle of the Atom
Captain America the Winter Soldier: The Official Game
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Kellogg's The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Uncanny X-Men: Days of Future Past
Spider-Man Unlimited
Disney Infinity: Marvel Super Heroes
Guardians of the Galaxy: The Universal Weapon
Marvel Disk Wars: The Avengers: Ultimate Heroes
Marvel: Contest of Champions
Marvel: Future Fight
Lego Marvel's Avengers
Marvel Avengers Academy
Kellogg's Marvel’s Civil War VR
Marvel Heroes Omega
Guardians of the Galaxy: The Telltale Series
Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite
Lego Marvel Super Heroes 2
Spider-Man
Untitled Avengers video game

You mentioned TV, games, books, comics and movies.

TV is way in favour of Marvel so not sure why you brought that up. It makes the case a lot worse!

Books are certainly in favour of Star Wars

Comics - again not sure why you brought that up. It's probably a ratio of 10,000 - 1 against here. t:

Movies - we're talking about movies and the reason for bringing the other stuff up I thought was because you wanted to say SW might not be able to compete long term bringing out 3 or more films per year but look at all this other stuff they're doing (that Marvel isn't?). Maybe I misunderstood.

I don't think anyone's saying Marvel ARE bigger, more that there is potential for Marvel to overtake SW as the number one brand if they don't get back into full gear. None of this was really hinted at until TLJ did less than expected, and less than an Avengers sequel which was also a little divisive in reception compared to its predecessor. After TFA and R1's numbers SW was looking as strong as ever.

 

[dataSlave]

One franchise is going to be pumping out at least 3 movies a year totaling anywhere from 2.5 to 3 billion a year, the other has not only peaked but now has had massive diminishing returns. Just look at next year, which franchise would you value more from a business perspective? the one that has IW, BP, and Ant-Man 2, or the one that has only Solo coming out.

Marvel as a whole is a much more lucrative property now than Star Wars, at least 3 movies a year, 4-7 tv shows, 2-5 cartoons, upcoming AAA video games, bankable toys.

That's fair. MCU is a much larger universe with dozens of main characters, each with their own fan base and back story. SW basically focused on 3 main characters in the OT and 3 others in the prequels. But all of the stories were closely intertwined. Disney's attempt to move away from the Skywalker Family history seems partially successful at best. At this point, opening a different branch in the same story is all they've done and Solo continues that trend.

 

[dataSlave]

Week 7 ended on Thursday.

$3.5 million in the 7 days through today's (Sunday) estimates.

If it drops 40-45% per week the weekly revenue number will drop below $0.5 million 4 weeks from now. That would provide $7.4 to $8.1 million incremental domestic box office from here. Total would be $821.7 to $822.4 million.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Did some digging and noticed Boxofficemojo is pretty terrible at separating re-releases before the 1990s. I was misled until I delved into this.

In 1942, Selznick liquidated his company for tax reasons, and sold his share in Gone with the Wind to his business partner, John Whitney, for $500,000. In turn, Whitney sold it on to MGM for $2.8 million, so that the studio owned the film outright.[35] MGM immediately re-released the film in spring 1942,[16] and again in 1947 and 1954;[8] the 1954 reissue was the first time the film was shown in widescreen, compromising the original Academy ratio and cropping the top and bottom to an aspect ratio of 1.75:1. In doing so, a number of shots were optically re-framed and cut into the three-strip camera negatives, forever altering five shots in the film.[36] A 1961 release commemorated the centennial anniversary of the start of the Civil War, and included a gala "premiere" at the Loew's Grand Theater. It was attended by Selznick and many other stars of the film, including Vivien Leigh and Olivia de Havilland;[37] Clark Gable had died the previous year.[38] For its 1967 re-release, it was blown up to 70mm,[8] and issued with updated poster artwork featuring Gable—with his white shirt ripped open—holding Leigh against a backdrop of orange flames.[37] There were further re-releases in 1971, 1974 and 1989; for the fiftieth anniversary reissue in 1989, it was given a complete audio and video restoration. It was released theatrically one more time in the United States, in 1998.[39][40] In 2013, a 4K digital restoration was released in the United Kingdom to coincide with Vivien Leigh's centenary.[41] In 2014, special screenings were scheduled over a two-day period at theaters across the United States to coincide with the film's 75th anniversary.[42]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gone_with_the_Wind_(film)

Boxofficemojo only has the 1989 and 1998 re-releases separated but not the others.

It replaced Jaws as the highest-earning film in North America just six months into release,[149] eventually earning over $220 million during its initial theatrical run ($888 million in 2017 dollars).

The film was originally released in 1977 with the title "Star Wars". The subtitles Episode IV and A New Hope were only added to the opening crawl in subsequent re-releases.[90][20] Accounts differ as to when this designation was first added; some date the change at the theatrical re-release of April 10, 1981,[91] while others place it much earlier at the re-release in July 1978.[92]

Star Wars was re-released theatrically in 1978, 1979, 1981 and 1982.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars_(film)

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=jZVjAAAAIBAJ&sjid=YnoNAAAAIBAJ&pg=1179,1672206

...and Boxofficemojo counts all those re-releases in that $307M figure.

[The Empire Strikes Back] earned $209,398,025 during its first 1980 run in the United States and about $450 million worldwide.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Empire_Strikes_Back

so that would make the true original runs
IV -> V*: 5% drop
I -> II: 30% drop
VII -> VIII: 34% drop

* I have no idea at this time how V's number is being inflated by the re-releases of V before the special editions

EDIT:

If we take into account only the first runs of both ANH & ESB, then the latter only dropped 18.03% from the former (181.4 million for ESB from 221.3 million for ANH). AOTC dropped 29.9% from TPM. So TLJ is clearly behind the other two in terms of gross retention as far as middle chapters in SW trilogies are concerned. Off the top of my head only The Lost World and Batman Returns (35.94% & 35.17% respectively) dropped bigger while being sequels to record breaking movies at that time (OW or final total or both). There are probably other examples but TLJ is likely in the bottom half of that list.

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/...howman-78m-hostiles-55m-the-post-52m/?page=13

Finding the detail on Episode V's re-releases has been difficult.

EDIT II:

First-run
Episode IV (1977): $221.3M (BOM: $307.3M includes 1978, 1979, 1981 re-release)
Episode V (1980): $181.4M (BOM: $209.4M includes 1981 re-release)
Change: -18.03% (BOM: -31.85% including re-releases)

First-run
Episode I (1999): $431.1M
Episode II (2002): $302.2M
Change: -29.90%

First-run
Episode VII (2015): $936.7M
Episode VIII 2017): $620.4M (tracking if it does no better and no worse than past 7 days and is in theaters same amount of days as Rogue One)
Change: -33.76%

 

[dataSlave]

Jumanji #1 in its 7th weekend. Ridiculously strong run. Just nuts that it's going to out-gross any of the F&F movies at the domestic box office.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/n...-jumanji-back-top-winchester-no-3-93m-1081534

 

[Iceman]

Wow, that's a low number to get the no.1 with lol.

 

[dataSlave]

Wow, that's a low number to get the no.1 with lol.

Yep. Despite the NFL's problems, Super Bowl weekend is still going to knock down movie attendance.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Did some digging and noticed Boxofficemojo is pretty terrible at separating re-releases before the 1990s. I was misled until I delved into this.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gone_with_the_Wind_(film)

Boxofficemojo only has the 1989 and 1998 re-releases separated but not the others.





https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars_(film)

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=jZVjAAAAIBAJ&sjid=YnoNAAAAIBAJ&pg=1179,1672206

...and Boxofficemojo counts all those re-releases in that $307M figure.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Empire_Strikes_Back

so that would make the true original runs
IV -> V*: 5% drop
I -> II: 30% drop
VII -> VIII: 34% drop

* I have no idea at this time how V's number is being inflated by the re-releases of V before the special editions

EDIT:



https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/...howman-78m-hostiles-55m-the-post-52m/?page=13

Finding the detail on Episode V's re-releases has been difficult.

Nice job! I never bought into the idea that Empire had a massive drop from ANH.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Nice job! I never bought into the idea that Empire had a massive drop from ANH.

Thanks. I've since been informed of a source for the original runs and updated the post.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Movie did better than Disney's estimates for the weekend. The Super Bowl didn't dent the numbers on Sunday to the extent they thought it would.

TLJ underneath RO by 17.44% in past 7 days according to actuals through Sunday.
RO earned $7,544,933 after Day 52.
$7,544,933 - 17.44% = $6,229,096
TLJ has earned $614,455,022 at the end of Day 52.
$614,455,022 + $6,229,096 = $620,684,118 final if TLJ does no better and no worse than past 7 days in same amount of days

 

[InCali]

I know that is what he SAYS, but I don't believe that for a nano-second.

Hello boys and girls can you spell "BS"? I knew you could do it.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Week 8 ended yesterday.

Per theater average (weekly gross divided by theaters)
Week 1: TFA $94,547 RO $53,404 TLJ $70,086 (TLJ = RO +31.24%, TFA -25.87%)
Week 2: TFA $63,162 RO $36,897 TLJ $39,720 (TLJ = RO +7.65%, TFA -37.11%)
Week 3: TFA $28,644 RO $19,226 TLJ $19,911 (TLJ = RO +3.56%, TFA -30.49%)
Week 4: TFA $13,438 RO $7,166 TLJ $7,399 (TLJ = RO +3.25%, TFA -44.95%)
Week 5: TFA $10,230 RO $6,348 TLJ $5,645 (TLJ = RO -11.07%, TFA -44.82%)
Week 6: TFA $5,828 RO $3,750 TLJ $3,593 (TLJ = RO -4.19%, TFA -38.35%)
Week 7: TFA $5,644 RO $3,311 TLJ $3,195 (TLJ = RO -3.50%, TFA -43.39%)
Week 8: TFA $4,232 RO $2,453 TLJ $2,263 (TLJ = RO -7.75%, TFA -46.53%)