The Real Deal Oscar Predictions

[Tron Bonne]

It should be noted that the critics =/= the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

I'm pretty sure Brokeback Mountain was the critics' favorite for Best Picture. Look how that turned out. Ang Lee got the Best Director award, whereas Best Picture went to Crash.

Yeah, but that's a rarity, not a rule. Usually, when something like this happens (one film dominating all the non-televised critical awards), it's a pretty good indication where the Oscars are going to go. It's not 100%, nothing is obviously, but it's not difficult to get that impression at all. I think TSN has a very big chance, the only other thing I see them giving it to over that is The Fighter.

 

[DCnightwing23]

No love for Inception for BP? It has the better cast, better script and everyone is completely ignoring it. TSN is a good film but nothing mind blowing by any means. I just went to see The Fighter earlier today and i can safely say its a better film than TSN.

 

[Laderlappen]

Look Im not saying its impossible for it to lose but chances are extremely small. What happened when Brokeback lost isnt something that is very common.

 

[Tron Bonne]

No love for Inception for BP? It has the better cast, better script and everyone is completely ignoring it. TSN is a good film but nothing mind blowing by any means. I just went to see The Fighter earlier today and i can safely say its a better film than TSN.

Oh, it's got love, but we're speaking realistically. That probably wouldn't even be on the list if not for the slot extension.

 

[jmc]

Critics and members seem to be coming closer in terms of opinion as the years go on. Part of me thinks some awards members are simply becoming lazier and lazier and nominating front runners now simply because of perception. I'm seeing King's Speech tonight myself, should be good from what I've heard.

 

[Boom]

I understand. I'm just reminding people that nothing is absolutely set in stone. Even after Heath Ledger won damn near every single award, I was still biting my nails come Oscar night.

And last year, I was holding out hope that Inglourious Basterds would pull an upset, what with it winning the SAG award for Best Ensemble (and the actors making up the largest portion of the Academy). Too bad the Academy went with the predictable Hurt Locker.

 

[Laderlappen]

No love for Inception for BP? It has the better cast, better script and everyone is completely ignoring it. TSN is a good film but nothing mind blowing by any means. I just went to see The Fighter earlier today and i can safely say its a better film than TSN.

Inception has better actors but The Social Network has better acting.

 

[jmc]

Could have been worse, they could have given it to Avatar.

 

[jmc]

No love for Inception for BP? It has the better cast, better script and everyone is completely ignoring it. TSN is a good film but nothing mind blowing by any means. I just went to see The Fighter earlier today and i can safely say its a better film than TSN.

The only way Inception gets over the line is if two films split the vote, although to be honest I'm sensing at least two films ahead of it that are more likely to pull that off. I do think Nolan has a genuine shot at director though.

 

[PreK]

No love for Inception for BP? It has the better cast, better script and everyone is completely ignoring it. TSN is a good film but nothing mind blowing by any means. I just went to see The Fighter earlier today and i can safely say its a better film than TSN.

C'mon now. TSNs cast as a collective whole provided much more depth than the caricatures and stand-ins in Inception. Leo (and maybe Marion) carried that film.

Also, Alan Sorkin's dialog alone deserves all the accolades it can get.

 

[Boom]

Could have been worse, they could have given it to Avatar.

True.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

People are intitled to their opinions but one is in the minority when they say that The Social Network is nothing special. That script was brillaint and if there is any justice it will win best Adapted screenplay at the oscars.

I hate nerd backlashes towards great films. You want to see non special/bad scripts? Watch Iron Man 2 or The A-Team. To hear more people complain about The Social Networks praise then the praise for wanna-be cool crap like Kick-Ass is baffling and one of the reasons I often want to leave these messageboards.

I love Inception and if it were legal, I'd marry Inception and in a just world it would win best picture but it does not deserve one acting nom. The acting was good ofcourse and it served it's purpose just fine but doesn't deserve awards attention IMHO.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Inception has better actors but The Social Network has better acting.

No, it has better writing. Screenwriters don't get enough credit. Sorkin's amazing dialogue made it pretty much impossible to screw up.

I do think Nolan has a genuine shot at director though.

I think he might not even be nominated. Winning is out of the question.

 

[Laderlappen]

No, it has better writing. Screenwriters don't get enough credit. Sorkin's amazing dialogue made it pretty much impossible to screw up.

One doesnt rule out the other.

 

[Doctor Jones]

If anything, the one lock for the Oscars is Sorkin's screenplay. His screenplay was the best of the year.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Agreed.

JMC, are you saying that you think that Nolan has a chance to win the oscar or be nominated?

 

[Boom]

"I think if your clients want to sit on my shoulders and call themselves tall, they have the right to give it a try, but there's no requirement that I enjoy sitting here listening to people lie. You have part of my attention. You have the minimum amount. The rest of the attention is back at the offices of Facebook, where my colleagues and I are doing things that no one in this room, including and especially your clients, are intellectually or creatively capable of doing. Did I adequately answer your condescending question?"

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

"I think if your clients want to sit on my shoulders and call themselves tall, they have the right to give it a try, but there's no requirement that I enjoy sitting here listening to people lie. You have part of my attention. You have the minimum amount. The rest of the attention is back at the offices of Facebook, where my colleagues and I are doing things that no one in this room, including and especially your clients, are intellectually or creatively capable of doing. Did I adequately answer your condescending question?"

Phenomenal.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Probably the best comeback and line of the year too. The dialogue was just phenomenal. Eisenberg probably won't win, but he should be nominated.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

He's a lock to be nominated but I don't want him to win. Everytime some young person's comes out of nowhere and wins their career goes down hill.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

No, it has better writing. Screenwriters don't get enough credit. Sorkin's amazing dialogue made it pretty much impossible to screw up.

Are you saying anybody can turn in a great performance if they have a great script?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Are you saying anybody can turn in a great performance if they have a great script?

I hope he isn't but I'm pretty damn sure thats what he means. Also, the director and editor have more of an effect on the performances than the screenwriter. I very much think that writers are underrated but thats no reason to make things up.

The actors did have a huge hand in their performances too.

 

[Doctor Jones]

He's a lock to be nominated but I don't want him to win. Everytime some young person's comes out of nowhere and wins their career goes down hill.

While true you never know. I've thought about that myself about him. But if he keeps this up and makes good choices who knows. We all assumed he would be the next Michael Cera and choose the same roles so Eisenberg could have better footing. But it also comes down to what roles and if directors want him to play them.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

While true you never know. I've thought about that myself about him. But if he keeps this up and makes good choices who knows. We all assumed he would be the next Michael Cera and choose the same roles so Eisenberg could have better footing. But it also comes down to what roles and if directors want him to play them.

After watching ZombieLand and then much later The Squid and the Whale, I thought that it was an insult to compare him to Cera. Now I'm not a Cera hater or anything but his acting isn't anything special.

Eventhough Eisenberg plays simular roles (like most actors) there is more depth and raw talent in his performances than anything that Cera has ever done.

I understand what you are saying about the right roles but I will just fear for him if he wins that statue. It seems to add so much presure to these young actors when they win and they always seem to just make the worst choices possible. It just seems like it could be another Adrien Brody situation to me (he was 29 and Eisenberg is 27) but to be fair, Brody has been in better things as of late. I really dug Splice.

 

[jmc]

^Agreed.

JMC, are you saying that you think that Nolan has a chance to win the oscar or be nominated?

My gut feeling tells me Fincher's not gonna win, don't know why, Social Network is brilliant and all, but damn it I can't help but feel it's not gonna be his year, maybe it's because I feel as if the writing is more of the star than the directing, dunno. I guess when I say Nolan has a genuine shot what I mean is Director I feel is a far more open than what people think. My spidey senses tell me a split is on the cards for Director and Picture this year, not sure why, it just doesn't feel a lock the same movie will get the gold and silver medals in 2010.