The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - Part 7

[Leo Zelinsky]

Keep in mind though that Ultron, are bottom tier Marvel villains. Most of their villains are better than that. They have their fair share of good villains like Loki, Stane, Pierce, and Zemo.

The only villain you listed better than Ultron is Loki.

Loki
Ultron
Zemo

Whichever order for Stand or Pierce.


I liked Zemo the best though

"An empire toppled by its enemies can rise again. But one which crumbles from within... That's dead. Forever"


Most powerful thing a villain ever said in the MCU. And he had the most success. He destroyed the avengers! Wow!

 

[Reverse-Zoom]

I lean towards agreeing with you on the point that giving FOX full merchandise rights would be a mistake, and while not as bad as the deals Marvel made in the 90's, it would come close. I also agree that even though Disney could eventually turn the FF into a money making machine, the IP isn't anywhere near being worth billions right now, thanks to FOX ... So, if you had to put a $ value on it, for the switch to happen right now, what number would you put down? What do you think would be fair for Disney to pay and FOX to accept ( allowing them to save some face and make some profit).

10 million and distribution deal so they both can make money but ff isn't worth much these days

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

I think 2017 is the year MCU villain problem gets solved. The villains in 2017 are incredible


SH

Vulture
Shocker

Vol2

Ego
Sylvester Stallone (Unless he's Anti Hero/Villain)

Ragnorak

Hela
Surtur
Thanos (Cameo Most Likely)


Plus More!

 

[Reverse-Zoom]

I think 2017 is the year MCU villain problem gets solved. The villains in 2017 are incredible


SH

Vulture
Shocker

Vol2

Ego
Sylvester Stallone (Unless he's Anti Hero/Villain)

Ragnorak

Hela
Surtur
Thanos (Cameo Most Likely)


Plus More!

Most interested to see what marvel does with sh. Vulture looked good can't wait to see shocker and how they do his powers

 

[Dark Raven]

What are the chances of Teri Hatcher showing up in GOTG2 as an exotic dancer in a scene with Russell and Stallone?

 

[Zant]

People may not be so forgiving if they waste Michael Keaton.

I want Gamora to betray the team in Guardians 2. Just to make things interesting.

I predict Hela is going to be the standout villain next year. That concept art alone....

 

[Zarex]

Mmm... I think this is mostly hyperbole. FF 2005 was mediocre, and FFINO cost $120M. Prominent actors do potentially crappy films. Disdained films can still make billions. No name directors make decent films, and as long as there are licensing deals the cost may be justifiable based on those alone.

Facts are facts. You can't spin the numbers to show me how a franchise that has been tanking at both critical appeal and audience attendance could conceivably turn things around its fourth (fifth) outing after the disaster that was FFINO.

And to what licensing deals are you referring? The Mouse controls licensing for the FF.

That's one way to look at it. Another way is how can I keep my corporate job if my shareholders think I threw away a potentially billion dollar franchise for nothing? And there was licensing deals? And the franchise has been profitable in the past? I might as well start packing up the office right now.

Again, I really get the critical smashing this movie deserves, but that doesn't change how corporations work and how they value things. And Fox is a corporation first and a filmmaker second, therein lies the problem.

Where are you getting billion dollar franchise from? FOX would be releasing the rights to a franchise that may have earned a small profit well over a decade ago and has been costing them money ever since. I would feel way more comfortable informing Rupert that the franchise he called out in an address to shareholders was gone than I would be asking for 9 figures for a fourth attempt.

See, this assumption that it is *absolutely* *impossible* to spend a SFX budget more wisely than FFINO is not only a false assumption, but judging by the amount of reshoots involved, the budget they had was essentially for a movie and a half. This idea that budgets can't increase for sequels, even though they continually do is equally as... tenuous.

I get the passion, but you're seriously going to guarantee that a $120M movie cannot make $200M plus? Worldwide? This is a mathematical impossibility?

With studios bringing in approximately 50/40/25 cents on the dollar for North America, Non China foreign and China, respectively, I am telling you, yes. It is a mathematical impossibility for a studio not to lose tens of millions of dollars on a $120M film with a 200M WW BO.

Since we're guaranteeing stuff here, allow me to join in. If Fox follows these simple steps they'll break even on their next FF film:
1) Keep the budget medium, around $100M
2) Get a good story that's been done before
3) Get a flashy fun cheap easily controllable director ala, Doug Liman of 2013. DJ Caruso of 2016. Someone like that who directs mediocre action movies or whose last hit was 10+ years ago.
4) Don't make a new film out of your director's original film
5) So that you don't have a big news story about your director hating your film right before it comes out.

$200 Mil, easy as pie, even if it only has two real action sequences (like FF 2005), even if no one has heard of half of the actors (like FF 2005), even if the Director is a one note whatever. The skeptical press will still say it's an improvement on the last dumpster fire. To say nothing of if any exceptional talent finds its way to your superhero franchise. If they did that twice in a row, FFINO would become irrelevant beyond being the new benchmark for the quality of FF films... and whoever can make that happen will get a huge bonus and a raise.

As much as I'd want Marvel to have this one, you're creating impossibilities where they simply do not exist.

Also, it's funny that the 'Keep Hope Alive' thread has turned into a thread trying to remove any hope of Fox making another sequel. Keep inevitability alive doesn't have the same ring to it, methinks.

As I mentioned, your $200M BO on a $100M film loses tens of millions of Murdoch family money. As far as I know they are not running a non profit. They will invest their money in films that have the potential to at least break even.

And you are suggesting that folks would be willing to spend their hard earned cash on yet another under budgeted FF film? In an era of peak superhero? Agree to disagree!

 

[Reverse-Zoom]

People may not be so forgiving if they waste Michael Keaton.

I want Gamora to betray the team in Guardians 2. Just to make things interesting.

I predict Hela is going to be the standout villain next year. That concept art alone....

Hela is gonna be real good especially if the rumors of her playing lady death in infinity wars is true.

If they waste Keaton it will be a huge let down with a guy like him playing a villain then they should start plans for a sinister 6 movie especially if they go the 2 villains a movie route. Too much of a money maker to pass up.

Gamora betraying the Team noooooooooo!!!! I was hoping sty Stallone would be a good guy turned bad. I would love to see how he portrays a villain.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

With studios bringing in approximately 50/40/25 cents on the dollar for North America, Non China foreign and China, respectively, I am telling you, yes. It is a mathematical impossibility for a studio not to lose tens of millions of dollars on a $120M film with a 200M WW BO.

Oh definitely. Break even would be closer to $280-300 million.

Now I wouldn't be surprised if Fox goes ahead and decides to take the bath anyways, but they are losing a lot of money at $200 million with even a $100 million budget, let alone $120 million.

 

[DrCosmic]

Facts are facts. You can't spin the numbers to show me how a franchise that has been tanking at both critical appeal and audience attendance could conceivably turn things around its fourth (fifth) outing after the disaster that was FFINO.

That's not how numbers work. The success of GI Joe: Retaliation or Fast and Furious 4 didn't "disprove" the numbers or ratings of their predecessors. They didn't have to spin the numbers to make those films happen. They were just decent follow ups to horrible films. Far too simple to be inconceivable. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

And to what licensing deals are you referring? The Mouse controls licensing for the FF.

Where are you getting billion dollar franchise from? FOX would be releasing the rights to a franchise that may have earned a small profit well over a decade ago and has been costing them money ever since. I would feel way more comfortable informing Rupert that the franchise he called out in an address to shareholders was gone than I would be asking for 9 figures for a fourth attempt.

With studios bringing in approximately 50/40/25 cents on the dollar for North America, Non China foreign and China, respectively, I am telling you, yes. It is a mathematical impossibility for a studio not to lose tens of millions of dollars on a $120M film with a 200M WW BO.

As I mentioned, your $200M BO on a $100M film loses tens of millions of Murdoch family money. As far as I know they are not running a non profit. They will invest their money in films that have the potential to at least break even.

And you are suggesting that folks would be willing to spend their hard earned cash on yet another under budgeted FF film? In an era of peak superhero? Agree to disagree!

Okay, so the number is $250M, then. The overall point still stands, and the recipe would still work. Will people spend money on an under budgeted FF film? I dunno, does it look good? What's the word of mouth on it?

I think you're unfamiliar with how businesses address costs. Specifically, the opportunity cost of letting Fantastic Four go is immense because of how much money previously unknown or failed superheroes have made in the market. That cost has to be justified, and the past losses don't measure up to how much money FF could make, as we all know Marvel will prove if/when they get their hands on it. Until superheroes go out of style or surprise cheap hits like Deadpool are forgotten, FF is worth a lot of money, and the fact that we all care so much is evidence of that.

 

[InCali]

People may not be so forgiving if they waste Michael Keaton.

I want Gamora to betray the team in Guardians 2. Just to make things interesting.

I predict Hela is going to be the standout villain next year. That concept art alone....

How could such a terrible, unattractive actor make a good villain??

Wait for it.

 

[Zarex]

That's not how numbers work. The success of GI Joe: Retaliation or Fast and Furious 4 didn't "disprove" the numbers or ratings of their predecessors. They didn't have to spin the numbers to make those films happen. They were just decent follow ups to horrible films. Far too simple to be inconceivable. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

I know darn well how numbers "work" as I have for my entire 20 plus years in accounting and finance. The only one spinning numbers here is you.

The GI Joe series had exactly one bad film from which to recover. And how would you suggest the folks at FOX replicate the success of the Fast and the Furious films? Should they bring back Chicklis and Evans for Fant4sti2: The Quickening?

Okay, so the number is $250M, then. The overall point still stands, and the recipe would still work. Will people spend money on an under budgeted FF film? I dunno, does it look good? What's the word of mouth on it?

Your big numbers confuse me, but Ill put on my ciphering hat and take a crack!
Let's say the NA, foreign non China, and China split is $100M, $100M and $50M, respectively. That leaves our good friends at FOX with a net (not including Marvel's take) of $50M, $40M and 12.5M, or a net of $102.5M on a $250WW BO gross. If we go with your laughably low $100M budget, the studio makes $2.5M - if they spent nothing on marketing. If they spend half of the production budget. which is typical of big studio features, the Murdochs are eating a loss of approximately $47.5

That's how numbers work. And I never said inconceivable (though I did see the movie). Both your math and reading comprehension skills need work.

I think you're unfamiliar with how businesses address costs. Specifically, the opportunity cost of letting Fantastic Four go is immense because of how much money previously unknown or failed superheroes have made in the market. That cost has to be justified, and the past losses don't measure up to how much money FF could make, as we all know Marvel will prove if/when they get their hands on it. Until superheroes go out of style or surprise cheap hits like Deadpool are forgotten, FF is worth a lot of money, and the fact that we all care so much is evidence of that.

I know from my decades in business that people care about actual costs a heck of a lot more than opportunity costs. Suggesting that FOX will willingly eat another 8 figure loss in order to avoid missing out on earnings that they have zero chance of realizing is ridiculous. FOX is going to try and get their X-Men franchise back on track, not waste more funds on the FF.

 

[regnak]

I know darn well how numbers "work" as I have for my entire 20 plus years in accounting and finance. The only one spinning numbers here is you.

The GI Joe series had exactly one bad film from which to recover. And how would you suggest the folks at FOX replicate the success of the Fast and the Furious films? Should they bring back Chicklis and Evans for Fant4sti2: The Quickening?



Your big numbers confuse me, but Ill put on my ciphering hat and take a crack!
Let's say the NA, foreign non China, and China split is $100M, $100M and $50M, respectively. That leaves our good friends at FOX with a net (not including Marvel's take) of $50M, $40M and 12.5M, or a net of $102.5M on a $250WW BO gross. If we go with your laughably low $100M budget, the studio makes $2.5M - if they spent nothing on marketing. If they spend half of the production budget. which is typical of big studio features, the Murdochs are eating a loss of approximately $47.5

That's how numbers work. And I never said inconceivable (though I did see the movie). Both your math and reading comprehension skills need work.



I know from my decades in business that people care about actual costs a heck of a lot more than opportunity costs. Suggesting that FOX will willingly eat another 8 figure loss in order to avoid missing out on earnings that they have zero chance of realizing is ridiculous. FOX is going to try and get their X-Men franchise back on track, not waste more funds on the FF.

This is why the board needs a like function.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Did I ever mention to you guys how much money I threw away by not becoming an NBA player? Opportunity costs aren't real if the opportunity isn't real.

Fox tried three times and made successively less money on each attempt to the point the company's market cap literally lost billions as a nearly direct result of the abject failure of Fant4stic.

Any manager who chooses to try again will be (rightfully) pilloried by the shareholders.

 

[Snaaaaake!]

That's not how numbers work. The success of GI Joe: Retaliation or Fast and Furious 4 didn't "disprove" the numbers or ratings of their predecessors. They didn't have to spin the numbers to make those films happen. They were just decent follow ups to horrible films. Far too simple to be inconceivable. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

Okay, so the number is $250M, then. The overall point still stands, and the recipe would still work. Will people spend money on an under budgeted FF film? I dunno, does it look good? What's the word of mouth on it?

I think you're unfamiliar with how businesses address costs. Specifically, the opportunity cost of letting Fantastic Four go is immense because of how much money previously unknown or failed superheroes have made in the market. That cost has to be justified, and the past losses don't measure up to how much money FF could make, as we all know Marvel will prove if/when they get their hands on it. Until superheroes go out of style or surprise cheap hits like Deadpool are forgotten, FF is worth a lot of money, and the fact that we all care so much is evidence of that.

....................So are you lobbying for another Fox released F4 film on an ongoing thread that wishes for anything but that?

What exactly is your end game here? Bored and playing the "Debbie Downer" role until Fox brings up some X-men news that's actually worth getting excited for these days?

Marvel Studios/Entertainment has done some good things with DD, Punisher, Hulk, Ghost Rider and Spider-man since getting them back from other incompetent studios. So it makes sense that Fox and their dwindling Marvel supporters would drag their feet with letting go of F4 because once they do and the MCU turns garbage into gold once again.... WE ALL KNOW WHICH IP IS NEXT!

 

[Dark Raven]

Did I ever mention to you guys how much money I threw away by not becoming an NBA player? Opportunity costs aren't real if the opportunity isn't real.


Fox tried three times and made successively less money on each attempt to the point the company's market cap literally lost billions as a nearly direct result of the abject failure of Fant4stic.

Any manager who chooses to try again will be (rightfully) pilloried by the shareholders.

In the Trank version of your life, you would be downgraded like Ben Grimm, probably to a less strenuous sport like darts.

 

[Snaaaaake!]

And FYI, GI Joe: Retaliation was a critical bomb that barely made North of "Breaking Even" at the box office.

The movie merchandise (toys) were even self-warming isles in most major retail stores and it's been 3 years since that film released and I've yet to hear of another sequel.

So it's funny that anyone would even bring that film up to defend a 4tsic sequel/reboot. Paramount had done so poorly last Summer (-$350M+ according to The Numbers Dot Com) because they still can't comprehend that Bayformer's fame is the exception and not rule and that making films like G.I.Joe and Battleship are the real reality when you make big budget crap.

But if Fox wants to follow that pattern, then let'em go right ahead..... Especially since there's nothing but X-men spin-offs rumored to be releasing anyway.

 

[ADollarADay]

Conspiracy time. This is what the Spiderman film reversion was in 2011 (It may have changed since then)

• Currently: 9 months post film release to pay ”rights extension payment”, 3 years and 9 months post the preceding film release to commence Principal Photography, 5 years and 9 months post the preceding film release to release a new film.

Assuming a similar reversion policy is in place for FF and XMen, including the "rights extension payment", then that means Fox had to pay a rights extension to Marvel by May 2016 in order to keep the FF live action rights. Legion TV show was announced in Oct 2015 and picked up to series on May 31st, 2016.

I lean towards agreeing with you on the point that giving FOX full merchandise rights would be a mistake, and while not as bad as the deals Marvel made in the 90's, it would come close. I also agree that even though Disney could eventually turn the FF into a money making machine, the IP isn't anywhere near being worth billions right now, thanks to FOX ... So, if you had to put a $ value on it, for the switch to happen right now, what number would you put down? What do you think would be fair for Disney to pay and FOX to accept ( allowing them to save some face and make some profit).

Hard to say without looking at the books. I will say this, we know Disney paid Paramount over 115MM to get Avengers and Ironman 3 distribution off their claws. I don't think live action movie production and distribution rights to FF and its lore is worth that much at this time.

 

[Zarex]

Did I ever mention to you guys how much money I threw away by not becoming an NBA player? Opportunity costs aren't real if the opportunity isn't real.

Fox tried three times and made successively less money on each attempt to the point the company's market cap literally lost billions as a nearly direct result of the abject failure of Fant4stic.

Any manager who chooses to try again will be (rightfully) pilloried by the shareholders.

"It's sort of a good news/bad news scenario with the 2nd FF reboot, Mr. Murdoch. The bad news is, once again, we've lost tens of millions of the company's money on a franchise that hasn't earned us a dime in well over a decade. But in doing so we've managed to preserve the opportunity to potentially collect future earnings that we have zero chance of ever seeing" - Future former FOX employee

 

[Val_Zod]

As a reminder, we are now 6 months away from the original release of Fantastic 4 2.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

If FF rights back to Disney for only "X-Men" TV. Why isn't Disney announcing it? When can we expect information?

 

[Zarex]

The announcement of the Phase 4 films.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Conspiracy time. This is what the Spiderman film reversion was in 2011 (It may have changed since then)



Assuming a similar reversion policy is in place for FF and XMen, including the "rights extension payment", then that means Fox had to pay a rights extension to Marvel by May 2016 in order to keep the FF live action rights. Legion TV show was announced in Oct 2015 and picked up to series on May 31st, 2016.



Hard to say without looking at the books. I will say this, we know Disney paid Paramount over 115MM to get Avengers and Ironman 3 distribution off their claws. I don't think live action movie production and distribution rights to FF and its lore is worth that much at this time.

This is VERY interesting. While the times are different, if provides a good example of the structure that the FF agreement almost certainly shares. And we have discussed a "maintenance fee" before (looks like it's probably called a "rights extension payment" to be more precise).

So it's not just a matter of Fox getting nothing when the rights inevitably run out, but Fox is actually paying Marvel as we wait.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

"It's sort of a good news/bad news scenario with the 2nd FF reboot, Mr. Murdoch. The bad news is, once again, we've lost tens of millions of the company's money on a franchise that hasn't earned us a dime in well over a decade. But in doing so we've managed to preserve the opportunity to potentially collect future earnings that we have zero chance of ever seeing" - Future former FOX employee

Anyone who thinks Fox might seriously make another FF film is delusional. There's no other word for it.

Immediately following the reviews of Fant4stic, Fox stock dropped SHARPLY, and within a couple months it went from about $35 to about $25. And it still hasn't recovered and is currently at $27.75 with a listed Market Cap of $51.8 Billion.
If we do the math on that, that means Fox's value dropped approximately $19 BILLION in the months following Fant4stic.

And if you look at the chart of Gross Box Office dollars for the three FF films in order, it looks like this:

No Fox manager who wants to keep their job will even suggest, let alone actually vocally support, another effort. The property is a liability to them. It's costing them money.

The longer they hold on to it, the more they are just throwing shareholder's money away.

 

[Darth_Spock]

Anyone who thinks Fox might seriously make another FF film is delusional. There's no other word for it.

Immediately following the reviews of Fant4stic, Fox stock dropped SHARPLY, and within a couple months it went from about $35 to about $25. And it still hasn't recovered and is currently at $27.75 with a listed Market Cap of $51.8 Billion.
If we do the math on that, that means Fox's value dropped approximately $19 BILLION in the months following Fant4stic.

And if you look at the chart of Gross Box Office dollars for the three FF films in order, it looks like this:

No Fox manager who wants to keep their job will even suggest, let alone actually vocally support, another effort. The property is a liability to them. It's costing them money.

The longer they hold on to it, the more they are just throwing shareholder's money away.

So even Deadpool's success couldn't undo what 4stic caused...........Fascinating!