The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - Part 8

[TheVileOne]

Before Phase 4 starts, or before Phase 4 ends? That's an important detail.

Fox released Fant4stic in 2017, that means they will have to, at the absolute latest, start production of a new film in 2024 or forfeit the rights.

Phase 4 is scheduled to run from approximately 2020 to 2028.

Therefore it is highly likely that Marvel will have the rights during phase 4.

The only alternative is that Fox will make another film and that is highly unlikely by any reasonable analysis.

Before Phase 4 starts. I don't see Fox making another Fantastic Four movie anytime soon. If the deadline is about 7 years, that means they have to a new film in production by about 2022 to keep the rights, wouldn't they? Rise of the Silver Surfer came out in 2007, and it seems it was until the last possible moment that the 2015 movie started production, which was official in 2014. But because Fox is a movie studio, they will try to hold on to the rights for as long as possible, even if it's just to keep them away from Disney.

Eventually, Marvel/Disney will get the rights back for every Marvel property, including Deadpool, X-Men, Fantastic Four. It might take years, but everything will go back there sooner or later.

If Fox does attempt to make another film, Disney should try to use everything in their power, legal or otherwise, to block it with how the the studio damaged the property.

Im kinda hoping FOX announces another reboot at Comic Con the riots in the crowd would be epic

It would be an amusing trainwreck.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

So if my 7 years to start principle photography is correct (and I think, if anything, it may be a little less than that because they were scrambling in early 2014 to get started when they might have had until July if they really had 7 full years), but August of 2022, that's it.

If cameras aren't rolling, the rights will revert.

With that in mind, I think something will happen prior to that, and it is very likely that Marvel will have the rights by 2020 at the latest.

 

[TheVileOne]

There's legal precedence of a 7 to 7.5 years(ish) timeframe. The 2015 movie met the deadline. The Daredevil reboot did not, and the rights to Daredevil/Elektra/Kingpin all reverted back to Marvel.

Sure something might happen before then. But by 2020 we might be in a nuclear world war 3. Who knows what will happen a year from now. I believe it's possible some rights deal could be made for the Fantastic Four family. That gives Marvel Studios some big heavy hitters to play around with for like the next 10-15 years.

Then imagine Marvel/Disney getting back the X-Men and Wolverine, and you have some sick possibilities. Imagine a cinematic version of Giant Size X-Men No. 1 from 1975. Doesn't have to be exactly like that, but again, insane possibilities.

We could see the X-Men universe onscreen in a way that Fox has never fully pulled off.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Before Phase 4 starts. I don't see Fox making another Fantastic Four movie anytime soon. If the deadline is about 7 years, that means they have to a new film in production by about 2022 to keep the rights, wouldn't they? Rise of the Silver Surfer came out in 2007, and it seems it was until the last possible moment that the 2015 movie started production, which was official in 2014. But because Fox is a movie studio, they will try to hold on to the rights for as long as possible, even if it's just to keep them away from Disney.

Eventually, Marvel/Disney will get the rights back for every Marvel property, including Deadpool, X-Men, Fantastic Four. It might take years, but everything will go back there sooner or later.

If Fox does attempt to make another film, Disney should try to use everything in their power, legal or otherwise, to block it with how the the studio damaged the property.

So just to clarify/simplify, you believe Marvel will have the rights by 2022. Zarex believes Marvel will have the rights by 2020.

If that's an accurate simplification, are two years even worth worrying about?

 

[BoredGuy]

Disney should just throw like $200 mil at Fox and take 'em back now
be the most money Fox'll ever manage to make off of them

 

[TheVileOne]

So just to clarify/simplify, you believe Marvel will have the rights by 2022. Zarex believes Marvel will have the rights by 2020.

If that's an accurate simplification, are two years even worth worrying about?

Not sure. It might not happen by 2022. It could happen earlier. Hypothetically, some sort of deal is made a year or two years from now? I don't think it's impossible at all. I just don't think it has happened yet.

I'm honestly not worried about it at all. It's just the waiting game now.

If I was in an Ike Perlmutter or Bob Iger position, I'd be campaigning and working day and night to work out some sort of Fantastic Four deal. If content and IP are king, it's in Marvel and Disney's best interests to have those properties in their camp. Disney bought Marvel for what? $4 billion. Marvel's value is clearly way higher. I'm not saying drop $1 billion on the Fantastic Four IP and all those characters, but offer a lot to get all of that back. You get all that back and you can expand Marvel Cinematic Universe for vast reaches for years. Getting Silver Surfer and Galactus back would be huge. Also, just to have characters like Kang to play around with for Avengers sequels would also be huge.

 

[Spiderine]

And that would require another reboot. The only other major property to venture into that uncharted territory is Spiderman. And he once broke box office records. As well as a merchandising bonanza

Is FF worth the risk for Fox?

 

[TheVileOne]

Disney should just throw like $200 mil at Fox and take 'em back now
be the most money Fox'll ever manage to make off of them

http://deadline.com/2010/10/disney-paramount-marvel-restructure-marketing-distruibution-deal-76534/

The deal Disney made to get distribution rights for Iron Man 3 and Avengers was I believe $115 million, plus another 9 percent off of Iron Man 3. That's just for the distribution rights. So, what's the number Fox would want for the Fantastic Four family, realistically? To give away production and distribution back to the rightful owners.

What would Disney be willing to pay? Just to have all those characters back, I would say upwards of $250 million (IMHO). You would think Disney has the money unless their financing is getting spread thin.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Not sure. It might not happen by 2022. It could happen earlier. Hypothetically, some sort of deal is made a year or two years from now? I don't think it's impossible at all. I just don't think it has happened yet.

I'm honestly not worried about it at all. It's just the waiting game now.

If I was in an Ike Perlmutter or Bob Iger position, I'd be campaigning and working day and night to work out some sort of Fantastic Four deal. If content and IP are king, it's in Marvel and Disney's best interests to have those properties in their camp. Disney bought Marvel for what? $4 billion. Marvel's value is clearly way higher. I'm not saying drop $1 billion on the Fantastic Four IP and all those characters, but offer a lot to get all of that back. You get all that back and you can expand Marvel Cinematic Universe for vast reaches for years. Getting Silver Surfer and Galactus back would be huge. Also, just to have characters like Kang to play around with for Avengers sequels would also be huge.

This is why I think something will probably happen before 2022. By 2020, Fox will know if they will be making another film (and since 2020 is only three years away and since that's not nearly long enough for people to forget the stink of Fant4stic, that decision will almost certainly be: "No way in hell we're touching that property again.")

So by 2020 (if it goes that far), Fox will know there's zero chance of another film and in two more years they'll hand over the rights for nothing. But if we're in 2020 and Marvel still doesn't have the rights, they'd be willing to offer at least something to lock them down. Probably not cash, but an increase in X-Men merchandise with a small cut going to Fox would benefit both studios.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

http://deadline.com/2010/10/disney-paramount-marvel-restructure-marketing-distruibution-deal-76534/

The deal Disney made to get distribution rights for Iron Man 3 and Avengers was I believe $115 million, plus another 9 percent off of Iron Man 3. That's just for the distribution rights. So, what's the number Fox would want for the Fantastic Four family, realistically? To give away production and distribution back to the rightful owners.

What would Disney be willing to pay? Just to have all those characters back, I would say upwards of $250 million. You would think Disney has the money unless their financing is getting spread thing.

both the Avengers and the IM3 distribution rights wer valuable to Paramount, though. The FF for Fox less so. trhey can HOPE to make 200 million with their next reboot, but chances are they wont. How much did they earn with Fant4stic?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

http://deadline.com/2010/10/disney-paramount-marvel-restructure-marketing-distruibution-deal-76534/

The deal Disney made to get distribution rights for Iron Man 3 and Avengers was I believe $115 million, plus another 9 percent off of Iron Man 3. That's just for the distribution rights. So, what's the number Fox would want for the Fantastic Four family, realistically? To give away production and distribution back to the rightful owners.

What would Disney be willing to pay? Just to have all those characters back, I would say upwards of $250 million. You would think Disney has the money unless their financing is getting spread thing.

But there's a huge difference there. At that time, Iron Man and Avengers had value (to either Paramount or Disney).

Fox has sucked all the value out of FF. Marvel might be able to squeeze something out of them, but Fox can't. Marvel would be foolish to offer anything (in cash or rights) worth more than $50 million.

 

[TheVileOne]

Disney should just wait it out because thats about the budget of a movie & marketing budget & whatever happens happens & right now the Fantastic Four is toxic anyway

I think you are right on waiting it out, and I think that's the current strategy; they are sort of making Fox sweat it out at the moment. Because in the immediate future, especially with the Spider-Man deal, Marvel doesn't need these property rights right now. But I'm thinking bigger picture 10-15 years from now, they will want them.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

But there's a huge difference there. At that time, Iron Man and Avengers had value (to either Paramount or Disney).

Fox has sucked all the value out of FF. Marvel might be able to squeeze something out of them, but Fox can't. Marvel would be foolish to offer anything (in cash or rights) worth more than $50 million.

so we agree?

 

[TheVileOne]

But there's a huge difference there. At that time, Iron Man and Avengers had value (to either Paramount or Disney).

Fox has sucked all the value out of FF. Marvel might be able to squeeze something out of them, but Fox can't. Marvel would be foolish to offer anything (in cash or rights) worth more than $50 million.

Fantastic Four is a big group of characters that does have value. Because you still have Silver Surfer and Galactus, who Marvel wanted to use several years ago. You have Kang who is a major Avengers villain that could be the next Thanos of the MCU.

But the politics and difficult thing is here is that yeah the Fantastic Four as a movie property is damaged goods at Fox. But Fox doesn't want to give over those rights to a competitor where they could reboot them and make them a viable property again. Hollywood suits don't like that when that happens.

That's why if I was in power and just ask for a sitdown and ask what Fox's number is to make them happy, shareholders and all. They get a pot of gold, Marvel gets back their characters and just something where everyone could get what they want.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

so we agree?

Yep. We were cross posting. I hadn't read yours when I was writing mine.

 

[Spiderine]

Lets be real here. They want the supporting characters and villains. Thats where the value is right now for Marvel. Got to look at the vast library of Marvel most popular characters. Unless they continue Ego type deals

 

[Zarex]

both the Avengers and the IM3 distribution rights wer valuable to Paramount, though. The FF for Fox less so. trhey can HOPE to make 200 million with their next reboot, but chances are they wont. How much did they earn with Fant4stic?

Estimates are somewhere between negative $80 million and negative $100 million.

FOX was also in the negative numbers for ROTSS, which grossed $132M DOM ($66M Net) and $157M FOR ($63M Net) on a budget of $130M (all number from BO Mojo). Though marketing costs, fees to Marvel and TV and DVD revenue make it difficult to get the final #s, the fact that FOX put the franchise on ice until the reversion date tells us they weren't exactly thrilled taking another swing at the FF.

 

[Dark Raven]

That's not solved at all. I want to see the Fantastic Four interacting with the Avengers. I want to see the Torch teaming up with Spider-Man. I want to see Thing fight the Hulk.

I don't want to see anything happening with X-Men and the FF.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

That's not solved at all. I want to see the Fantastic Four interacting with the Avengers. I want to see the Torch teaming up with Spider-Man. I want to see Thing fight the Hulk.

I don't want to see anything happening with X-Men and the FF.

The Hype needs a Like-button just for posts like this

 

[TheVileOne]

Trying to force a team-up between X-Men and Fantastic Four is harder than Fantastic Four and Avengers or Spider-Man. They are just too different.

 

[Web-Head]

That's not solved at all. I want to see the Fantastic Four interacting with the Avengers. I want to see the Torch teaming up with Spider-Man. I want to see Thing fight the Hulk.

I don't want to see anything happening with X-Men and the FF.

This

I keep going back and forth on whether or not I'd like to see Disney just pay Fox. I'd like to see it, but in a way I could see the reasoning behind waiting.

Plus, what if by going to them and asking Fox decides to make a Silver Surfer solo film or something stupid.

 

[BoredGuy]

Trying to force a team-up between X-Men and Fantastic Four is harder than Fantastic Four and Avengers or Spider-Man. They are just too different.

yeah its like a scale in the Marvel U
FF- Happy Go lucky, beloved celebrity family of superheroes
Avengers- Marquee superheroes, mostly loved, but occasionally questioned
Spider-Man- Cheery but with issues, Loved by anybody who's ever interacted with him, but gets a lot of flack in the media (thanks to JJJ)
X-Men- Angsty...Hated and feared, for pretty much no reason whatsoever and despite all the times they've saved the world

 

[Dark Raven]

Ben Grimm is one of the characters with the most heart. It's sad that he's missing from the MCU. The FF would fit right in with the more comedic tone. And Thing's wisecracks could be another film stealing draw.

They need a good actor who is great with comedy this time. Getting Jamie Bell for Thing is like getting some dead serious actor for Rodney Dangerfield.

 

[DrCosmic]

They need a good actor who is great with comedy this time. Getting Jamie Bell for Thing is like getting some dead serious actor for Rodney Dangerfield.

Liam Neesson stars in
NO RESPECT

 

[Dark Raven]

Liam Neesson stars in
NO RESPECT

What a revolting development.