Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[kedrell]

Of course a larger than otherwise drop was expected by all with POTC4 coming out. Thor likely could have made as much as $5M domestic more otherwise. I was hoping for it to only fall to a flat 50% drop(previous one was 47% and drops are usually the largest early on) which would have given it 17M for the weekend. I guess there's still hope if the actuals improve it. I fully expect POTC4 to miss $90M when the actuals come out and end up with 88-89M. A 55% drop for Thor would be reasonable for most big films even w/o such competition. Really looking forward to seeing the actuals tomorrow. Still saying this ends at $190M domestic.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah that is pretty much it.

Again I think this was a decent weekend for Thor against Pirates 4. Chances are before the third weekend it will be close to or about $150 million. Memorial Day weekend will pretty much put it over $160 million soon.

Now $200 million I'd say would be possible if NOT for the super competitive summer we are in for. I mean think about it. We got Hangover 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2 about to come out. After that, Cars 2, Green Lantern, X-Men: First Class, Transformers 3, etc. That's going to make it pretty tough for Thor to have enough staying power for $200 million IMHO. I'm still thinking like $185 million right now.

 

[kedrell]

I think it can muster $5M on the upcoming weekdays so it should at least be at $150M going into the holiday weekend. The 4-day weekend will likely evenly match the amount it made this 3-day weekend so $165M by the end of next Monday. Hopefully more but I'm comfortable with that prediction.

 

[kedrell]

Such a crowded marketplace this year. I bet many a studio might want to rethink jamming so many big films into such a small space of time. It really limits their individual $ potential. This year seems to be the worst case of this in recent memory.

 

[KangConquers]

Such a crowded marketplace this year. I bet many a studio might want to rethink jamming so many big films into such a small space of time. It really limits their individual $ potential. This year seems to be the worst case of this in recent memory.

What's funny is that because of the emergence of foreign markets, the crutch of 3-D, and generally high ticket prices, this maybe the summer where the most movies make a profit worldwide.

 

[04nbod]

Really, this film just needs to leap the hurdle of $400 million. While it would be nice if it had a larger gross here in the U.S., that is ultimately unimportant as far as the fate of this franchise is concerned. Once it reaches $400 million, I have a hard time imagining Marvel turning down the opportunity to produce a sequel.

I agree. I think International was far more important for Thor. An Australian lead with European mythological ties and all. Captain America may have issues internationally not because of American perceptions but who wants to see American nationalism overseas? Kind of like how the recent Captain Britain comic series did great numbers in the UK but it couldn't be saved because it disappointed in the bigger market. I want all the comic franchises to do really well this year. Hangover, Pirates, Panda can die a slow death.t:

 

[TheCorpulent1]

Damn shame about Captain Britain & MI-13, since it was a fantastic comic.

 

[Chewy]

I'm not really worried about Captain America's overseas take. I think it will be fine.

 

[Superhero 101]

Any news on how much Thor made internationally this weekend?

 

[kedrell]

Not yet.

 

[rashad]

Paramount/PPI’s Thor grossed an estimated $9m from 10,064 locations in 60 international markets, taking the film’s international total to $247m, with an opening in Japan still to come.

$300M OS is not happening. Still had a nice run nonetheless.

 

[Arach Knight]

I agree. I think International was far more important for Thor. An Australian lead with European mythological ties and all. Captain America may have issues internationally not because of American perceptions but who wants to see American nationalism overseas? Kind of like how the recent Captain Britain comic series did great numbers in the UK but it couldn't be saved because it disappointed in the bigger market. I want all the comic franchises to do really well this year. Hangover, Pirates, Panda can die a slow death.t:

I agree that Captain America will be a hard sale in the overseas market. Where as Thor can rely on its European folklore roots to gain appeal in Europe, and its fantasy themes to gain attention in other markets, Captain America is a clearly symbol of American jingoism and warfare. This is not necessarily the case with modern Captain America, but this film is about World War II era cap. I don't think the world has a problem with World War II films. After all, Pearl Harbor did gangbusters in the world wide market, taking more than 50% of its gross from the overseas market. I guess only time will tell if Cap can breach that line, but given the current anti-American sentiment around the globe, I have a difficult time seeing this film rise to global success. Conversely, I see Americans eating this film up.

 

[04nbod]

I agree that Captain America will be a hard sale in the overseas market. Where as Thor can rely on its European folklore roots to gain appeal in Europe, and its fantasy themes to gain attention in other markets, Captain America is a clearly symbol of American jingoism and warfare. This is not necessarily the case with modern Captain America, but this film is about World War II era cap. I don't think the world has a problem with World War II films. After all, Pearl Harbor did gangbusters in the world wide market, taking more than 50% of its gross from the overseas market. I guess only time will tell if Cap can breach that line, but given the current anti-American sentiment around the globe, I have a difficult time seeing this film rise to global success. Conversely, I see Americans eating this film up.

I think the worry in Britain is that it will spread the whole 'We Yanks saved your asses' falsehood.We really don't appreciate that crap when we withstood the blitz and attempted invasion while the rest of Western Europe fell.

How its promoted will be a big factor and we'll probably get more of Haley Atwell/Action Scenes than in US promotion which will play on patriotism. Pearl Harbour was pre-9/11. It was a war romance based on America's greatest defeat and was played as a tragedy rather than a celebration of America's bravery. I don't think that will be the marker.

 

[flickchick85]

I think the worry in Britain is that it will spread the whole 'We Yanks saved your asses' falsehood.We really don't appreciate that crap when we withstood the blitz and attempted invasion while the rest of Western Europe fell.

How its promoted will be a big factor and we'll probably get more of Haley Atwell/Action Scenes than in US promotion which will play on patriotism. Pearl Harbour was pre-9/11. It was a war romance based on America's greatest defeat and was played as a tragedy rather than a celebration of America's bravery. I don't think that will be the marker.

True, but I don't think you could find more of an "American propaganda" take on WWII than Inglourious Basterds, and it did great overseas.

 

[Raiden]

Didn't Marvel already announce a sequel for Thor? But no matter what, I think Thor's BO run has been pretty impressive, and let's face it: Marvel Studios don't have enough marquee superheroes to make movies with, and the best ones are the Big Three (Iron Man, Thor, Cap), and the rest (including Hulk) are rather iffy. I doubt Disney would want Marvel to focus on lesser superheroes to make movies of, so we don't have anything to worry about re: sequel for Thor.

 

[TheVileOne]

Brits should be thankful that Captain America fights for them as well .

 

[Spider-Fan]

Didn't Marvel already announce a sequel for Thor? But no matter what, I think Thor's BO run has been pretty impressive, and let's face it: Marvel Studios don't have enough marquee superheroes to make movies with, and the best ones are the Big Three (Iron Man, Thor, Cap), and the rest (including Hulk) are rather iffy. I doubt Disney would want Marvel to focus on lesser superheroes to make movies of, so we don't have anything to worry about re: sequel for Thor.

Agreed. This is also why I see Cap definitely getting a sequel, too.

 

[Marvel]

Such a crowded marketplace this year. I bet many a studio might want to rethink jamming so many big films into such a small space of time. It really limits their individual $ potential. This year seems to be the worst case of this in recent memory.

Yeah, but I can't wait for that day in late June when I can go to the cinema and see Thor AND X-Men First Class back-to-back on the same day just for fun. I wonder if Thor can hold on in the big chains until July 22nd? A triple feature would blow my mind and have me smiling all day long.

 

[Tony Stark]

2011 has just been a measly year for the Box office, and judging by that, I think Thor has done extremely well. I was a little suprised at the 55% drop, but I think it lost alot of 3D and IMAX screens this week, and if there's anywhere Pirates effected it, that's probably it. Still I think it's got an ouside chance at 200 mil if it tracks well over the holiday weekend, but more likely it will end at 180-190. Still that's a 2.75 multiplier and that's excellent for a first time summer flick.

I think the fact it's doing so well internationally shows how in jeopardy the theaters system is here in America. I think you will see that become more the norm than the exception, especially in 2011. We've seen it already with Fast 5, Pirates and with Thor, a little too much to be a coincidence.

 

[WarBlade]

Yeah, Thor did have to move aside. At my complex, the second digital install has yet to take place, so as soon as Pirates hit the screens, Thor just stopped. We've finished its run.

 

[BigThor]

Paramount/PPI’s Thor grossed an estimated $9m from 10,064 locations in 60 international markets, taking the film’s international total to $247m, with an opening in Japan still to come.

$300M OS is not happening. Still had a nice run nonetheless.

Oh well, it's most likely gonna make 270m+ so it's onle gonna be short 30 million.

*shrugs*

 

[04nbod]

Brits should be thankful that Captain America fights for them as well .

Braddock would kick his ass and be sure not to get Cap's yankie blood on his snazzy new costume

 

[BigThor]

^^^ Lol

 

[The Morningstar]

True, but I don't think you could find more of an "American propaganda" take on WWII than Inglourious Basterds, and it did great overseas.

Inglorious Basterds was American propaganda? Seemed it was pretty well balanced really. If anything, i'd say it celebrated the French rebels who didn't put up with Nazi occupation more than anything. Shosanna and Archie Hicox were the most bad ass characters in the film.

 

[BigThor]

Inglorious Basterds was American propaganda? Seemed it was pretty well balanced really. If anything, i'd say it celebrated the French rebels who didn't put up with Nazi occupation more than anything. Shosanna and Archie Hicox were the most bad ass characters in the film.

I still haven't seen that movie.