Who should challenge Trump in 2020? - Part 1

[marcvader]

No thank you. I want an experienced, intelligent, deliberative, patient statesman or stateswoman. If Americans can't handle the boredom of politics... then they should be the ones to change. This isn't a TV show; it's real life. Obviously some of us no longer have the ability to tell the difference.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[Fading]

No thank you. I want an experienced, intelligent, deliberative, patient statesman or stateswoman. If Americans can't handle the boredom of politics... then they should be the ones to change. This isn't a TV show; it's real life. Obviously some of us no longer have the ability to tell the difference.

Agreed, we got our reality TV show president. Don't get me wrong, Oprah's a smart woman, and a definite step up from Trump. But I'm ready for a politician to take the position back. Obviously I'd prefer it to be someone intelligent, deliberative, and patient as well.

Don't get me wrong, plenty of politicians are crooked. Things do need to change as well. There's a reason our various political institutions are so unpopular. However, I at the least want my president to understand the basics. To understand you can't call for the death of people currently on trial. That you can't attack private citizens, judges, journalism/free speech. That we shouldn't be propping up murderous dictators, while attacking our allies. That he/she shouldn't randomly make half hearted comments that lead to actual policy changes via Twitter.

There are so many things that Trump should have a minimum understanding of to do his job, and he doesn't have that. Because he's never been a politician. He never had to learn what his job actually entails. Instead we get, "The Space Force". This isn't even taking into consideration that I just flat out hate Trumps political stances as is anyways.

 

[Aximili86]

No way in hell Oprah ever runs, guys. She enjoys every middle-American middle-aged woman loving her, no way she'd voluntarily cut her fanbase by half. Which is what would happen the second she dips a toe into politics.

 

[Silvermoth]

So the heavyweights are apparently preparing according to this article.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...harris-and-sanders/ar-AAA5DDL?ocid=spartanntp

Some interesting names there. It’s a shame Booker blew his chance. He had it all going for him and even though he explained by he made that decision with pharmaceuticals it will be enough for people to see him as the same old establishment politician

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

Some interesting names there. It’s a shame Booker blew his chance. He had it all going for him and even though he explained by he made that decision with pharmaceuticals it will be enough for people to see him as the same old establishment politician

Eh... I think you are putting FAR too much stock into how in any shape or form that could gain traction with the masses. The current president ran as a tribune of the common man yet literally, LITERALLY ****s in gold plated toilets. Once more, to both sides... The 2016 election was not some grand revolution. It was decided by a small amount of votes and due to the electoral college the Dems lost despite gaining more actual votes overall. The idea that in a world that is so complex and the compromises inherent in rising to prominence in a powerful nation like the US that somehow "purity" (the definition of which is different to every group and individual anyway) is what's needed above all else is naive and silly. This is exactly what trips up Democrats or Democratic leaning types all the time. Obama had it all the time thrown at him how he was insufficiently "progressive" and "betrayed" those that put him in office but for the most part that was just projection on those people's part from the get go. He never sold himself as the grand messiah of the Left. He was always a Center-Left, middle of the road guy and he governed that way.

Like I always point out... We have been here before with the far Left in the U.S.A. An all hand on deck situation is apparent but "principals" matter more than actually stopping harm or being practical. That's how we ended up with W. Bush and how we ended up with Trump. If the Democrats lean too far into the Left to appease a "base" that's not even a majority of their own party much less the rest of the electorate then that's not gonna work. Kow towing to the Bernie Bros. because of their "passion" and dismissing the Bookers will just confirm the mistaken bias of too many that the Democratic Party is some kind of hard core Communist organization. This is about trying to get the persuadable not about purity.

 

[Aximili86]

Booker probably wouldn't win, at least yet. He's got a lot of potential for the future though. But if you're really wanting Donnie one-term-and-done you're going to want to run someone sure-fire, think Booker may be a little unproven for that. Not a great poster-child to win the midwest back either, he's pretty "east coast Democrat" rather than "heartland Democrat". They already have the coasts in the bag, that's not a fight they need to spend much effort on.

 

[compgar]

Hilary will run again and win

 

[Fading]

It's a tough call on who to run. Trump has a big personality, and sometimes voting can be a popularity contest, sadly. Luckily Trump has a crappy first term behind him, so he's a soft target on actual policy. However, Trump's going to nickname, insult, talk over, lie, and denegrate his challenger. We need a candidate that can hit back without sinking to his level, and can provide good policy.

I'm just not sure who that is. Bernie, maybe, but he's not the clear cut savior that the Bernie Bros make him out to be. Biden, maybe, but he's in the same camp as Bernie. He can hit back, but fighting fire with fire isn't necessarily the winning strategy. Hitting back is needed, tons of hot mic moments, and arguing aren't.

I guess, if I had to choose on the spot, maybe Kamala Harris? I've seen so little of her though. She seems to be able to talk tough, and seems intelligent, but I'd need to see more. She's young, and seems inexperienced, but so was Obama. Plus, anyone is more experienced than Trump at this point. He's went 2 years, and still doesn't grasp the bare minimum of the job. Plus, even though I don't want him to, Trump's going to say something sexist. He's going to insult her looks, or have a hot mic moment where he says she should be getting his coffee or something. Then he's going to lose a lot of the female vote.

 

[terry78]

Will he?

 

[moviedoors]

I'm just not sure who that is. Bernie, maybe, but he's not the clear cut savior that the Bernie Bros make him out to be. Biden, maybe, but he's in the same camp as Bernie. He can hit back, but fighting fire with fire isn't necessarily the winning strategy. Hitting back is needed, tons of hot mic moments, and arguing aren't.

And they'll both be pushing 80 by 2020. Would should not be electing octogenarians.These guys' moments have passed. And I say that as a guy that would've enthusiastically voted for Bernie or Biden in a year that wasn't 2020.

 

[Fading]

Will he?

If you mean towards me, and, "will he insult a female challenger", I believe he would. Trump insulted Mika from morning joe, saying something like her face was bleeding from a botched plastic surgery or something. That's just because he didn't like her coverage of him. Give him a challenger getting in his face, he'll slip up.

Not that I actually want him to say something sexist. She doesn't deserve it, and his racist remarks proved it just emboldens the morons who think horrible things like that. I just can't see him sticking solely to script, or being able to help himself.

 

[Last Skywalker]

On the Democrat side:

Establishment wise? You're likely to see Kamala Harris(basically being sold as an establishment version of Obama) vs Biden(cause he got frozen out last time).

Progressive wing candidate? Warren vs Sanders vs Gabbard.

I really don't see a man getting the nom, but stranger things have happened.

I think Kamala beats out Biden for Establishment Love due to age and Biden being too tied to Obama. They really want to put forth another Mondale(former VP with aspirations of being back the bad ol days?), to really bring things full circle?

If Hillary even tries to run here, she'll be laughed out of the room. Her time has passed and Bill is now firmly hung around her neck after #metoo finally 'woke' Democrats to suddenly realizing that oh ya... he was Weinstein before Weinstein. Once that got sprung, any chance at running a real campaign for 2020 fell to near zero.

Progressive side, i'd watch out for Tulsi Gabbard. She's been flying completely off the scope, but I have a feeling she'll be there come 2020, although like Trump did in 2012, could have a name-recognition run so she's seen as a contender, before seeing the tea leaves and ultimately waiting for a wide-open race in 2024.

Warren I see as being too close to an establishment candidate to really get traction with Progressives that want real institutional change.

Sanders, like Biden, has the age issue working against him.

In all likelihood? Figure Harris and Gabbard as the top two, with one of them going up in flames against The Best Economy in a Generation, and the other having the inside track on 2024.

Needless to say, all this speculation could be moot depending on pretty much any type of political events(economy goes the other way, RBG decides to pull a retirement in the middle of the campaign in 2020, etc) between now and then.

 

[Sithborg]

Biden was not frozen out last time. He was in mourning.

 

[Aximili86]

Just go all-in, bump up Ocasio-Cortez to the prime spot for giggles. We can get more "America wasn't always a capitalist nation" stuff.

Sure-fire winner!

 

[Last Skywalker]

Biden was not frozen out last time. He was in mourning.

Nope. He was frozen out and told he wouldn't have the support of the Party were he to run. The mourning was an excuse, but his son died Jan 6th, 2015, almost two years before the General Election Nov 8th, 2016 and a full year before the campaign would have kicked into gear.

He was convinced not to run by party leadership and that opened the way for Clinton to basically run for the nom with what they considered to be unopposed. Only nobody saw Sanders coming and they did everything they could except mug the guy to keep him from winning.

Sadly, Biden probably had the best chance of winning given his strength in Blue Collar Rust Belt may have prevented the Blue Wall from falling. But he would have had to do it at the expense of Clinton and the First Woman to get the nomination for President of a Major Party, and that would likely have been toxic... as nobody on the Left could see Hillary with a chance of losing, right up to Election Day.

Just go all-in, bump up Ocasio-Cortez to the prime spot for giggles. We can get more "America wasn't always a capitalist nation" stuff.

Sure-fire winner!

IKR! Most Conservatives are really really wanting her to win(its not like a Republican is going to win in The Bronx) just to see the Democratic Party burn. Cause she, like Trump... is not one to be 'put in her place'. I doubt that's her brand. If the Establishment hates her, it only helps!

 

[MaceB]

I love that occasion-Cortez is making conservatives flip their lids. Haha, she is just one of many who believe that market based solutions should be supported by government run solutions, and Republicans go crazy. Haha, she’s not even a self proclaimed socialist (boogity boogity!) . She’s just an average lady who is basically just spouting common sense. Yes - she has an exciting future ahead of her, but it’s gonna be a decade or so before she hits the national stage... if that. Calm down guys. The big bad socialism monster isn’t going to get you. It’s okay.

 

[Silvermoth]

Yeah.

Part of me wishes the big bad socialism monster would get them though lol

 

[Herofan]

Michael Avenatti is considering running, thinks he might have the best chance, I suspected before the man was ambitious but whoa, probably not smart to to be that open about it so early on, so openly mixing a legal case with electoral politics and personal electoral ambition.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/stormy-daniels-lawyer-says-he-might-run-for-president.html

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Need a candidate against whatever Republican is the candidate in 2020 (Trump or otherwise) that can at least hold the lighter blue while winning the lighter reds, many that were previously won by Obama. 270 EVs needed to become President. 3rd party candidates had a big effect in the states where neither Trump nor Clinton won 50% of the vote within; in 2012 third parties made up 1.84% of the presidential vote, in 2016 it was 6.05%.

2012 vs. 2016:

States where % of votes for other candidates exceeded winning margin for Obama (BO) or Romney (MR) in 2012

Florida: other 1.07%, margin 0.87% (BO); difference 0.20%

States where % of votes for other candidates exceeded winning margin for Trump (DT) or Clinton (HC) in 2016

New Mexico: other 11.70%, margin 8.22% (HC); difference 3.48%
Virginia: other 5.82%, margin 5.32% (HC); difference 0.50%
Colorado: other 8.59%, margin 4.91% (HC); difference 3.68%
Maine: other 7.30%, margin 2.96% (HC); difference 4.34%
Nevada: other 6.58%, margin 2.42% (HC); difference 4.16%
Minnesota: other 8.63%, margin 1.51% (HC); difference 7.12%
New Hampshire: other 6.71%, margin 0.37% (HC); difference 6.34%
Michigan: other 5.72%, margin 0.22% (DT); difference 5.50%
Pennsylvania: other 4.37%, margin 0.71% (DT); difference 3.66%
Wisconsin: other 6.33%, margin 0.77% (DT); difference 5.56%
Florida: other 3.99%, margin 1.19% (DT); difference 2.80%
Arizona: other 7.34%, margin 3.50% (DT); difference 3.84%
North Carolina: other 4.00%, margin 3.66% (DT); difference 0.34%
Utah: other 27.28%, margin 17.88% (DT); difference 9.40%

CNN - 2012 election results: Exit polls
CNN - 2016 election results: Exit polls

 

[Hypestyle]

Michael Avenatti is considering running, thinks he might have the best chance, I suspected before the man was ambitious but whoa, probably not smart to to be that open about it so early on, so openly mixing a legal case with electoral politics and personal electoral ambition.

Stormy Daniels' lawyer says he might run for president

curious. Well, we'll see what happens. any candidate needs to talk about economic and social policy first and foremost.

 

[Aximili86]

Avenatti was never a serious runner, but he's done after the Swetnick thing.

 

[Silvermoth]

Well. That was that.

Ok almost time to make a new thread post midterms. Who’s some people who should be on the poll?

 

[THORin]

Beto O'Rourke! I am convinced he is the next President!

 

[The Shape]

Loved Beto's F-bomb last night.

 

[Schlosser85]

Dems should keep Beto around.