Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[BlackFox]

Hmmm, it depends on what bad publicity you are referring to.... if the critics hammered this film, thats automatically bad publicity - I don't think that would help the film at the box-office.

Lol yeah fair point, that wouldnt help.

 

[psylockolussus]

It didn't help Fant4stic and BvS and especially X3/Origins... so lets hope for great reviews!

 

[JP]

box office pro lowered their forecast to 120/250

 

[Mad Ones]

Why?

 

[marieylee]

I'm guessing since CW has a lot of hype, even moreso than previously, especially with the critics review out. If it has great rewatchability/WOM, will continue to pull about 20-25 million in its 4th week.

 

[Sithborg]

The closer you get, the more accurate you can get. The hype may not be as great as they thought.

 

[JP]

Why?

Because we're six weeks out and projections will shift up and down until the final projections that weekend...

 

[Mad Ones]

I was just wondering if something specifically shifted it.

Would a new trailer shift it up?

 

[def28]

If it's an insane trailer that destroys the other 2 and gets people talking more it could. Otherwise these past two trailers have already done their rounds heavily for the film. Showing something similar won't do much, so it would just have to stand out significantly.

Until Fox does the two week heavy push and wom starts coming in I don't think much can change that.

 

[X-Maniac]

CA:CW is the next superhero film coming out, so of course it's going to have greater interest at this point. Especially with promo material all over the place. They're so confident they are even teasing Doctor Strange in the middle of the CA:CW promo period.

I can't say I'm overly excited about it, to be honest, but Disney/Marvel has a very solid record at this point, so major success is guaranteed.

The other factor is that CA:CW features a clash between characters the audience are all familiar with, whereas XM:A features a clash between characters/actors the audience are not familiar with.

XM:A has a lot of new characters - or new actors as familiar characters like the younger Cyclops, Jean, etc. It's no wonder they want to push J-Law/Mystique in the promo materials and no wonder they want to get Jackman/Wolverine in there.

 

[def28]

I don't think being familiar really matters. Look at Deadpool, Ant-Man, Iron Man 1 and GOTG. Cyclops, Storm, Nightcrawler and Jean have been in more films and popular cartoon series much more so then most. But it's how they are advertised for this film that matters the most. If they are not saying or doing much of anything the audience does not have much reason to care other then their previous knowledge of said characters in other forms of media. They don't exactly have screen stealing moments in the trailers.

Hopefully the new trailer will push X-Men characters more. Cause that's really what it's missing. I like the last trailer but it's time to introduce this new cast properly.

 

[MadVillainy]

I don't think being familiar really matters. Look at Deadpool, Ant-Man, Iron Man 1 and GOTG. Cyclops, Storm, Nightcrawler and Jean have been in more films and popular cartoon series much more so then most. But it's how they are advertised for this film that matters the most. If they are not saying or doing much of anything the audience does not have much reason to care other then their previous knowledge of said characters in other forms of media.

Hopefully the new trailer will push X-Men characters more. Cause that's really what it's missing. Time to introduce this new cast properly.

Yeah I dont know who's in charge of trailer marketing, but they're really messing up not giving more focus on Cyclops, Jean, and Storm. I feel like that would get a lot of people more excited.

 

[def28]

Yeah, their addition have been one of the things I'm most excited about. But the trailers have just not pushed them well.

 

[Iceman]

I'm guessing since CW has a lot of hype, even moreso than previously, especially with the critics review out. If it has great rewatchability/WOM, will continue to pull about 20-25 million in its 4th week.

Yeah CW has a lot of hype right now. And I think having the big DC Vs film just before it (and the extreme reactions to it) made the 2 of them a bigger event than they would have been otherwise. I wish there was a bit more breathing room between CW and Apocalypse as I don't think people want to be marketed to until they've seen CW. Another week or 2 gap would have been nice.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Yeah CW has a lot of hype right now. And I think having the big DC Vs film just before it (and the extreme reactions to it) made the 2 of them a bigger event than they would have been otherwise. I wish there was a bit more breathing room between CW and Apocalypse as I don't think people want to be marketed to until they've seen CW. Another week or 2 gap would have been nice.

It isn't ideal to be so close to CW but one always runs into other tentpoles during the summer blockbuster season. Opening on a holiday weekend is a nice advantage and if they had opened it in early June, Dory would likely cut off its legs. I think Alice is probably the bigger problem, especially if Jungle Book has audiences wanting more effects-heavy, live-action Disney remakes.

 

[Logan0327]

i'm more concerned with alice in wonderland coming out on same weekend a sequel to a 1 billion dollar film than civil war

 

[Sithborg]

A billion when everyone was high on 3D and Johnny Depp. Both have gone down in the viewer's eyes.

 

[def28]

It has an audience just being a live action classic Disney film.

That said, I'm still not worried at all about it hurting X-Men in any major way. X-Men is more then fine.

 

[kevork89]

Agree ^ Alice will do well but it won't make the money the first one made all those years ago. That was new and exciting then but the movie itself was pretty weak and not that great. The other Disney movies have been better since.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Agree ^ Alice will do well but it won't make the money the first one made all those years ago. That was new and exciting then but the movie itself was pretty weak and not that great. The other Disney movies have been better since.

Certainly it won't do as well but I think some may be underestimating Alice. The original pulled an A- CinemaScore and a 2.88 multiplier, indicating that family audiences liked it. Also, while 3D has decreased some it still remains a fairly sizable chunk of the box office.

 

[sleekstereo]

On Heroic Insider yesterday, they said the next film is The Dark Phoenix saga.

 

[Iceman]

It isn't ideal to be so close to CW but one always runs into other tentpoles during the summer blockbuster season. Opening on a holiday weekend is a nice advantage and if they had opened it in early June, Dory would likely cut off its legs. I think Alice is probably the bigger problem, especially if Jungle Book has audiences wanting more effects-heavy, live-action Disney remakes.

I'm commenting more on CW's current hype just because it's another superhero ensemble and X-M:A might be getting more attention right now otherwise. I think people are still open to having the likes of the Jungle Book (or anything that's sufficiently different) marketed to them while they are on a CW anticipation high though.

 

[BeholdMe]

CW is out now so of course the hype would be up there and likeky higher than Apicalypse since the movie is literally here. By no means does that mean Apocalypse is going to fail I'm sure both movies will do great let's not keep comparing these movies we are getting a lot of superhero movies this year.

 

[Iceman]

CW is out now so of course the hype would be up there and likeky higher than Apicalypse since the movie is literally here. By no means does that mean Apocalypse is going to fail I'm sure both movies will do great let's not keep comparing these movies we are getting a lot of superhero movies this year.

I'm not comparing the films and I certainly don't think it's going to fail. Apocalypse's window for marketing is not going to be very long after CW dies down, that's all. I don't think that would matter if it was a completely different kind of film but it's not. 2 weeks is plenty to allow a juggernaut opening before you to lose its inital steam and open your own film, but it just makes it difficult to get people as interested in your marketing as they would be if your film wasn't opening so soon after another very similar film.

Edit: actually it's 3 weeks in US, sorry. I had it wrong. 3 weeks is better.

 

[Tilapia]

On Heroic Insider yesterday, they said the next film is The Dark Phoenix saga.

I don't see it. They may set it up here, but it's still probably a couple films away. Sinister can support a movie by himself. After that, you'd be pushing it villain wise treading into less popular characters and stories. Go for Phoenix after that.