Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[psylockolussus]

First Class Beast wasn't even as good as X3 Beast IMO. I mean watching First Class, I didn't see Beast that I read from the comics and saw in the videogames/cartoons. Then DOFP, he was just there and appeared in human form for majority of his scenes.

 

[SuperT]

If you clearly didn't see Beast from the comics in First Class, than I guess you're not very familiar with his younger years. I thought (and still think) Hoult plays young, smart, caring yet self-conscious Beast very well in these movies.

I don't think he was completely invisible nor irrelevant to the story in DoFP, but I hope he gets little more in Apocalypse, and from the sounds of it he does.

 

[psylockolussus]

I do think marketability is an issue, but honestly, it doesn't bother me too much. I like the tone and quality I'm getting from the films. 4 out of 5 isn't too shabby. And if Apocalypse maintains Singers quality that'll be 5 out 6.

Yeah as long as it doesn't flop or underperform, I think its all good.

 

[Darthkush]

The first x-men film is what got me into boxoffice stats. Me pulling for it to make more and more money is what made me interested in this forum and many others. I've been an x-men fan practically my whole life.

That being said, I think this one will underperform slightly(at least domestically). DOFP had everything from a marketing perspective. We finally got Sentinals, we had a neat premise, the return of older castmates, time travel. Everything we could've wanted was there...and it only did 234 million domestic. This one has nowhere near the buzz and more competition. If it's good, I think it can get to 220 million stateside. Worldwide will be the key to the franchise's future and I don't have a prediction for that yet but let's not kid ourselves, just because Deadpool was huge, doesn't mean another X-men film in which nothing looks different aesthetically will be huge as well.

I love several of these movies but they haven't evolved with the times on some level and I feel like many are not as excited as they could be had they focused on Cyclops, Storm, and Jean or never screwed them up to begin with in the older films.

 

[Sithborg]

I think as fairly recent events have shown us, it doesn't matter the character. They need to be portrayed well in a good movie to be received well. It doesn't matter if it is a AAA character that is part of the pop culture, or D-list heroes only known to the comic fandom.

Make a good movie, and people will care for those characters.

 

[iacobusleo]

That being said, I think this one will underperform slightly(at least domestically). DOFP had everything from a marketing perspective. We finally got Sentinals, we had a neat premise, the return of older castmates, time travel. Everything we could've wanted was there...and it only did 234 million domestic. This one has nowhere near the buzz and more competition. If it's good, I think it can get to 220 million stateside. Worldwide will be the key to the franchise's future and I don't have a prediction for that yet but let's not kid ourselves, just because Deadpool was huge, doesn't mean another X-men film in which nothing looks different aesthetically will be huge as well.

I love several of these movies but they haven't evolved with the times on some level and I feel like many are not as excited as they could be had they focused on Cyclops, Storm, and Jean or never screwed them up to begin with in the older films.

I'm curious, what would happen if the film underperforms domestically? People seem to be worried about that but if the fim does well wordwide it should be still fine right? Will it affect Foxs handling of the franchise?

It seems like the X-Men have nothing to worry about when it comes to its overseas draw. I'm not an American though so I could be ignorant of how Hollywood works.

 

[Sithborg]

I think Fox has realistic expectations with the competition they are facing. Although, with Deadpool's success, they may consider giving up the Memorial Day weekend. Especially if Star Wars ever moves back to May.

 

[DACrowe]

I don't see the obsession with having to hit $1 billion. Sure lots of movies are doing it but if it's a fantastic film and makes enough to warrant more then I'm happy. I think hitting the $700-800 million area is great. And that should be what X-Men strives for and not try and make $1 billion. I mean of course try but if they're making $800 million im sure Fox and co will be happy.

I would like to see it cross $800 million. Because that is a threshold for Fox to seem to be satisfied. If they are satisfied that means we can go cosmic with Phoenix next time. If they are not, it could be a problem with getting the right budget for that in a little while.

 

[DACrowe]

First Class Beast wasn't even as good as X3 Beast IMO. I mean watching First Class, I didn't see Beast that I read from the comics and saw in the videogames/cartoons. Then DOFP, he was just there and appeared in human form for majority of his scenes.

I actually agree that I prefer how Beast was presented in TLS, which is my least favorite X-Men movie, so go figure. Grammer killed it.

With that said, I agree with Havok that character development for the non-Logan characters didn't really take root until First Class. While Beast is certainly fourth, the four main characters in that cast all had more development in that one film than Cyclops, Jean, and Storm did over three films. I also thought the team dynamics between the "first class" (sad half of them are dead now!) was more believable and how the X-Men should feel like. In fact, I hope Singer brings back that light touch for the school scenes early in Apocalypse.

Overall, this trilogy does have a more coherent understanding of its leads and their arcs than the original films. Rogue was so important to Logan in the first film, and then they barely talk in the second, and are like strangers in the third. That is just bad storytelling.

 

[GuestStar2004]

At the least I can see it making 800 mil, but the competition may not help the movie and I am sure fox are aware of this, or at least they should be aware of this.

Some of the pre releases in other countries before US may not hepp either

 

[Krak66]

1 month and I will see the movie. But my expectations are pretty moderate

 

[Darthkush]

I'm curious, what would happen if the film underperforms domestically? People seem to be worried about that but if the fim does well wordwide it should be still fine right? Will it affect Foxs handling of the franchise?

It seems like the X-Men have nothing to worry about when it comes to its overseas draw. I'm not an American though so I could be ignorant of how Hollywood works.

Hypothetically could be fine but when American films do okay here or have diminishing returns here, even if they do great abroad, it's still seen as a risk. The only time where it seems to matter too much is if it does SO amazing overseas that it literally doesn't matter what it did in America. Like the last Transformers movie or the last Pirates. They had huge drops from their previous entry in America but were gigantic overseas. If X-men can do that and stay on an upward trend, then yes, it won't matter....but I'm not sure that will happen. I've wanted to see Apocalypse my whole life onscreen and I'm a hardcore X-men fan...and i'm not that hyped. I know many other x-men fans who are feeling the same.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm blown away and it somehow gets to a billion ww and 400 domestic...but I'm not sure I will be.

 

[CaptainCanada]

I'm curious, what would happen if the film underperforms domestically? People seem to be worried about that but if the fim does well wordwide it should be still fine right? Will it affect Foxs handling of the franchise?

It probably would prompt some reassessment, though I don't think you could really predict exactly what form it would take. The fact that FOX didn't conduct a wholesale reboot (which is what many series detractors want) in the 2009-2011 period, when the franchise was way worse off than it is now, to me makes that fairly unlikely.

The easiest bet would be that a deemed underperformance domestically would lead to the speedy recasting/reintroduction of Wolverine onto the team.

 

[marvelrobbins]

I think Fox has realistic expectations with the competition they are facing. Although, with Deadpool's success, they may consider giving up the Memorial Day weekend. Especially if Star Wars ever moves back to May.

Apocalypse may be last X-men film released in may.

the han solo anthalogy film is scheduled for may 2018 release and if
episode IX is released in may 2019 X-Men defently won't be released in
may again anytime soon.

 

[marvelrobbins]

It probably would prompt some reassessment, though I don't think you could really predict exactly what form it would take. The fact that FOX didn't conduct a wholesale reboot (which is what many series detractors want) in the 2009-2011 period, when the franchise was way worse off than it is now, to me makes that fairly unlikely.

The easiest bet would be that a deemed underperformance domestically would lead to the speedy recasting/reintroduction of Wolverine onto the team.

it's only a matter of time before wolverine is recast.

with DOFP and now Apocalypse the reboot people have largely gotten what they want.many characters recast.the original trilogy kind o filrelvent since films don't lead into ot and inconsent with ot.it's still up in the air if wolverine even makes a cameo in Apocalypse.

Of course some won't be sastified till there is reboot set In MCU although that's not happening anytime soon.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm curious, what would happen if the film underperforms domestically? People seem to be worried about that but if the fim does well wordwide it should be still fine right? Will it affect Foxs handling of the franchise?

It seems like the X-Men have nothing to worry about when it comes to its overseas draw. I'm not an American though so I could be ignorant of how Hollywood works.

Its not too late to bring back the gang that started it all.... thats what they did after First Class became the lowest grossing X-Men film worldwide. Even if Wolverine isn't part of it anymore - the mainstream viewers are already familiar with them - then include Channing Tatum's Gambit and new characters then its good to go!

 

[CaptainCanada]

it's only a matter of time before wolverine is recast.

Most definitely. That might be on the table for the next X-Men film regardless of how well this one does.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Most definitely. That might be on the table for the next X-Men film regardless of how well this one does.

yep.i never understood the thinking some had that fox would retire the most
popular character because jackman quits when they recasted everyone else.
ok not iceman,rogue,and kitty yet but that may come soon too.

don't forget in timeline of films now most of jackman's time as wolverine has
been erased.If they do dark phoenix saga as followup to apocalypse who
knows if future ending of DOFP+wolverine film will still be considered part of
timeline.

If they can recast james bond numoras times pre-casino royale reboot and recast batman after Michael Keaton left they can recast wolverine.

If jackman doesn't cameo In Apocalypse that increases chances of it being sooner rather than later wolverine gets new actor.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Recasting wolverine will be tough, to replace jackman after so long aswell as fit him into this timeline

 

[psylockolussus]

.i never understood the thinking some had that fox would retire the most
popular character because jackman quits when they recasted everyone else.

You know what, Fox has plenty of characters to use especially now that Deadpool outgrossed all X-Men films.

As of now, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine is irreplaceable and it would be a hard task for Fox to replace him given that he already appeared in like 7 movies (9 next year). Give the spotlight to the other characters.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Apocalypse may be last X-men film released in may.

the han solo anthalogy film is scheduled for may 2018 release and if
episode IX is released in may 2019 X-Men defently won't be released in
may again anytime soon.

That is pretty far away and things could change; Episode VIII was pushed from May to December so things are still pretty fluid. Right now it looks like the next main X-Men installment is tentatively scheduled for July 13, 2018 (since I'm assuming FF is well and truly dead).

Regardless, I don't think it really matters that much for the box office prospects. If anything, it might help since it will get X-Men away from the MCU movies that always kick off May (although that July 13 date is just a week after Ant-Man and the Wasp).

 

[Gerontophobe]

Recasting wolverine will be tough, to replace jackman after so long aswell as fit him into this timeline

You know what, Fox has plenty of characters to use especially now that Deadpool outgrossed all X-Men films.

As of now, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine is irreplaceable and it would be a hard task for Fox to replace him given that he already appeared in like 7 movies (9 next year). Give the spotlight to the other characters.

I think if the X-Men films have taught us anything, it's that Fox isn't terribly concerned with the continuity making sense. If they think Wolverine is needed for the films to make money, they'll just recast him and shoehorn the character in. If XMA does poorly (relative to whatever Fox expects), I wouldn't be surprised to see them equate that disappoint with a lack of Wolverine and insist on a recast.

 

[Havok83]

You know what, Fox has plenty of characters to use especially now that Deadpool outgrossed all X-Men films.

As of now, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine is irreplaceable and it would be a hard task for Fox to replace him given that he already appeared in like 7 movies (9 next year). Give the spotlight to the other characters.

any and everyone is replaceable

yep.i never understood the thinking some had that fox would retire the most
popular character because jackman quits when they recasted everyone else.
ok not iceman,rogue,and kitty yet but that may come soon too.

lol and Kitty has been recast....twice!

 

[jaymes_e06]

Yeah he's in no way irreplaceable.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think if the X-Men films have taught us anything, it's that Fox isn't terribly concerned with the continuity making sense. If they think Wolverine is needed for the films to make money, they'll just recast him and shoehorn the character in. If XMA does poorly (relative to whatever Fox expects), I wouldn't be surprised to see them equate that disappoint with a lack of Wolverine and insist on a recast.

The only characters that they recast are the ones that had a small roles in the previous films (like Jubilee, Kitty, Psylocke, Pyro, X2 Beast, Emma, Moira) except for Angel (and it was still a small role).

While the Colossus role in Deadpool was offered to Daniel Cudmore. Then the others like Professor X, Cyclops, Jean Grey, Magneto, Beast, Mystique, Toad, Nightcrawler, Sabretooth and Storm = they cast their "younger version".