Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[InCali]

Looks like they're projecting it for $124M opening and $260M domestic

http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/x-men-apocalypse-2016?q=X-Men

That's a pretty killer opening, but to only get a 2X (and change) multiplier seems rather low to me. It's got a lot of competition however; much more than CA:CW. If it opens to 124M, 260 for the entire run seems low.

 

[Snikt]

That's a pretty killer opening, but to only get a 2X (and change) multiplier seems rather low to me. It's got a lot of competition however; much more than CA:CW. If it opens to 124M, 260 for the entire run seems low.

Seems realistic though. And I think it'd be a great domestic tally considering no X-Men film (until Deadpool) crossed the $234M mark.

So $260M domestic is pretty good I think.

 

[InCali]

Seems realistic though. And I think it'd be a great domestic tally considering no X-Men film (until Deadpool) crossed the $234M mark.

So $260M domestic is pretty good I think.

Yeah. When you look at it from that perspective, it rather makes sense. Too bad there was so much competition in that time slot. With an opening like that, 300M seems like it should have been a breeze. Hopefully OS numbers will be good. The main thing is for the movie to be good. If it is, it will help keep the franchise on track. A slip up now could be really bad, but I think Singer is the guy to keep things together.

 

[EnDz0n3]

It's up! Yay!

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...en-apocalypse-alice-through-the-looking-glass

X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)

PROS:

- 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past helped rebuild the popularity of the X-Men franchise with a four-day opening weekend take of $110.6 million and final domestic gross of $233.9 million. The film was also very well received by moviegoers and critics alike.

- X-Men: Apocalypse has been performing well on Twitter this far out. Recent activity for the film has been 22 percent softer than Twitter activity for Deadpool at the same point in its cycle earlier this year. In addition, X-Men: Apocalypse has been performing significantly stronger than Alice Through the Looking Glass on Twitter.

- While the stand-alone aspect of Deadpool may not transfer into a huge boost for X-Men: Apocalypse, the strong reception to Deadpool could provide a bit of a boost, especially given the strong reception to X-Men: Days of Future Past as well.

- The additions of Apocalypse, Psylocke and Archangel and the re-additions of Cyclops and Jean Grey should help further build anticipation for the film among X-Men fans.

CONS:

- The level of competition X-Men: Apocalypse will face. In addition to opening the same weekend as Alice Through the Looking Glass, the film arrives just three weeks after Disney's highly anticipated Captain America: Civil War and one week before Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. Given that level of competition, there may only be so much room for improvement over the performance of Days of Future Past.

- Given how well received X-Men: Days of Future Past was by moviegoers and critics it will be tough for X-Men: Apocalypse to match the reception to that film.

Edit:

Looks like the $124 Mil projection is for the 4-day weekend

X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $124,000,000* $260,000,000

 

[JP]

So looks like they're projecting the same awful multiplier this franchise is cursed with. But, the numbers are still decent! If it can clear 250m that would be amazing!

 

[CaptainCanada]

Frankly, I think FOX would be thrilled for the series to even equal DOFP without the presence of Jackman, which would kill any reservations about whether him/Wolverine is important for a truly successful team film (though Deadpool should maybe have already done that). But anyway, that projection would be a very nice result.

 

[Snikt]

So looks like they're projecting the same awful multiplier this franchise is cursed with. But, the numbers are still decent! If it can clear 250m that would be amazing!

Agreed. If it can clear $250M domestic, that'd be great for this franchise. Maybe $1 billion is out of reach WW, but $900 million seems very possible I think.

I'd like to think this is getting a China release.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Just as a note. That $124 Mil is only $2 Mil above 2006's X3 $122 Mil 4-day weekend.

 

[Snikt]

But I think Apocalypse has more competiton that weekend X3 did in 2006

 

[def28]

So looks like they're projecting the same awful multiplier this franchise is cursed with. But, the numbers are still decent! If it can clear 250m that would be amazing!

Agreed.

 

[EnDz0n3]

The pro here is that it's not going down from DOFP's numbers, projection-wise.

Unlike some people here would have you believe.

 

[kevork89]

260 million is a great number but I'm just hoping it can manage more then that. It would be nice if it hit 300 million. It's a stretch I know but I wish.

Once again though the numbers that are gonna give Apocalypse the big boost are international numbers. And I think those will be even better compared to DoFP's.

 

[Sithborg]

So nice that this forum is better than others. Put up that projection in either BvS or CW forum, I think you would get lynched (or would have in BvS's, things have turned a bit).

A nice solid number. Looks like it would break the $100 million 3-day, so I would be very happy. The total is a bit unfortunate, but it is what it is, with the schedule after its release being so packed.

 

[marvelrobbins]

this projection is great for apocalypse.beating DOFP and last stand would be huge victory.

 

[X-Maniac]

That prediction seems reasonable. But I never know with these predictions - Deadpool seems to have shocked everyone. What did that site say about Deadpool

The sandwich effect of Avengers Civil War and Teenage Turtles is likely to impact it, as is Alice drawing away family audiences, wholly or partly. I saw an instance or two with DoFP where dads/sons went into DoFP while mums/daughters opted for Maleficent.

However, it opens earlier in the UK. We get it on May 19 not May 27. Most places get it before the USA and Canada, with Japan having it last.

 

[Gerontophobe]

However, it opens earlier in the UK. We get it on May 19 not May 27. Most places get it before the USA and Canada, with Japan having it last.

Launching a week earlier than Alice (which is same-day with the US) in 41+ markets including most major ones should help; also it has the same 3 week gap from CW internationally since that is also opening earlier abroad. Is it just me that thinks it odd that Japan has to wait until August for XMA?

 

[JP]

*if* we can make 250m+ domestic, I think 800m WW is doable.

 

[def28]

That prediction seems reasonable. But I never know with these predictions - Deadpool seems to have shocked everyone. What did that site say about Deadpool

The sandwich effect of Avengers Civil War and Teenage Turtles is likely to impact it, as is Alice drawing away family audiences, wholly or partly. I saw an instance or two with DoFP where dads/sons went into DoFP while mums/daughters opted for Maleficent.

However, it opens earlier in the UK. We get it on May 19 not May 27. Most places get it before the USA and Canada, with Japan having it last.

They predicted Deadpool to open above 70m, which pretty much everyone thought was unrealistic and far too high. They were much closer then anyone else.

Given the R rating and being a first IP the industry didn't know how to look at it. Pro Box office looked at all the number crushing social media numbers and came up with their conclusion based around that and his established popularity.

 

[psylockolussus]

$260 million would be great!

 

[psylockolussus]

That prediction seems reasonable. But I never know with these predictions - Deadpool seems to have shocked everyone. What did that site say about Deadpool

The sandwich effect of Avengers Civil War and Teenage Turtles is likely to impact it, as is Alice drawing away family audiences, wholly or partly. I saw an instance or two with DoFP where dads/sons went into DoFP while mums/daughters opted for Maleficent.

However, it opens earlier in the UK. We get it on May 19 not May 27. Most places get it before the USA and Canada, with Japan having it last.

It opens on May 18 for me which is weird because it is like the first time that I'm seeing a X-Men film 1 week earlier than the people in North America. It must because of Alice Through the Wonderland.

But the earlier, the better for me, 6 to 7 weeks to go!!!

 

[GuestStar2004]

800m WW would be a pretty realistic rise

 

[Mystique's Leg]

800m WW feels a bit optimistic considering the competition, but I hope it'll happen. As long as it'll be a great movie, I'm happy.

 

[psylockolussus]

It would be nicer if this movie is getting an IMAX release like Deadpool.

 

[Samarus]

It would be nicer if this movie is getting an IMAX release like Deadpool.

I've read somewhere that it gets an IMAX release in some international markets.

 

[psylockolussus]

Thats cool!