Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[TheNewSlayer]

How much do you guys think this movie will make ww?

By my calculations if stays in theater for 10 weeks it will be a total of 180m domestic plus 300 internationally = 480m ww

By these numbers I don't think it will reach 500m anymore

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=x-men2016.htm

 

[ImSGirl95]

How much do you guys think this movie will make ww?

By my calculations if stays in theater for 10 weeks it will be a total of 180m domestic plus 300 internationally = 480m ww

By these numbers I don't think it will reach 500m anymore

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=x-men2016.htm

Won't it make huge cash in Japan and China?

 

[Sithborg]

How much do you guys think this movie will make ww?

By my calculations if stays in theater for 10 weeks it will be a total of 180m domestic plus 300 internationally = 480m ww

By these numbers I don't think it will reach 500m anymore

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=x-men2016.htm

I think you are worrying a bit too much. The UK alone should have another 10 mil to contribute, which puts the total over seas to $200. Given the estimate of $80 mil from China, that is just another $20 mil from the other territories, some which haven't opened yet. It is going over $300 mil internationally.

 

[fallenAngel]

How big of an effect does everyone think TMNT will have? The audience is a bit older for X-men, but the last one was a surprise hit.

any good WOM that may prevent a steep drop may be undone by another big effects driven blockbuster

 

[marvelrobbins]

How much do you guys think this movie will make ww?

By my calculations if stays in theater for 10 weeks it will be a total of 180m domestic plus 300 internationally = 480m ww

By these numbers I don't think it will reach 500m anymore

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=x-men2016.htm

if it doesn't make 500 Million WW that's a major disappointment and people are in Denial if they don't think major adjustments are coming.

we are getting another wolverine solo film because the wolverine grossed
414 million ww and origins did 373 million WW.A 480 million WW is major
decline from DOFP.

What they do i don't know but I will be shocked if after 20,000 Leagues under the sea if Bryan Singer is involved at all with next film.who know what will happen with next film.however the big problem is Simon Kinberg could
be writing and producing it.

and the thought of fox quit making X-men films and just doing deapool and
x-force spin-offs isn't appeaping to me at all.when I was regurly buying the X_men comics i never stayed a sloyal to any spin-off books like regural core X-men titles.

 

[marvelrobbins]

How big of an effect does everyone think TMNT will have? The audience is a bit older for X-men, but the last one was a surprise hit.

any good WOM that may prevent a steep drop may be undone by another big effects driven blockbuster

APoclaypse second weekend will in best case sceniro be likely around 25
million.maybe a bit higher.

 

[Sithborg]

How big of an effect does everyone think TMNT will have? The audience is a bit older for X-men, but the last one was a surprise hit.

any good WOM that may prevent a steep drop may be undone by another big effects driven blockbuster

Luckily, it isn't tracking that strongly. And with Alice collapsing, Apocalypse will likely be able to keep its theaters over Alice.

 

[Tymminator]

How much do you guys think this movie will make ww?

By my calculations if stays in theater for 10 weeks it will be a total of 180m domestic plus 300 internationally = 480m ww

By these numbers I don't think it will reach 500m anymore

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=x-men2016.htm

I would like to see this weekends drop for a better grasp but my range is 460M-510M.

 

[Raiden]

The China numbers are not good. We are looking at 70M to 80M there.

Not surprising since XMA doesn't feature one of the biggest Chinese actresses like DOFP had.

 

[superweirdo87]

The movie has a decent shot at over 300m WW. But, under 500m WW could definitely happen.

140-150 domestic
70 china
---------------
210-220 million

So, the rest of the world has to come in pretty strong for the movie.

 

[Tymminator]

The movie has a decent shot at over 300m WW. But, under 500m WW could definitely happen.

140-150 domestic
70 china
---------------
210-220 million

So, the rest of the world has to come in pretty strong for the movie.

True.

 

[superweirdo87]

Not surprising since XMA doesn't feature one of the biggest Chinese actresses like DOFP had.

Yeah. The most critical factor might be Warcraft. It is coming and leaving no possibility of legs and taking a lot of screens in China. So, XMA may have been able to get like 80 or 80-90M, but Warcraft is like a monster there that is going to kill it.

 

[Tymminator]

Just playing around with numbers, let's say...

170M Domestic gives studio roughly 85M (50%)

250M International without China gives studio roughly 100M (40%)

80M China gives studio roughly 16M (20%)

The total gross would be 500M but the studio would only get roughly 201M.

 

[metaphysician]

Probably.

Correction: Probably *not*, seeing as both correlate pretty logically with their crappy reviews. Do not attribute to "super hero fatigue" what can be more than adequately explained by "the movie sucks".

 

[Tymminator]

I don't believe in fatigue per-say, but I do think you should watch when you have some movies of the same type in a related genre how close they are released together.

Like Disaster movies, Westerns, Sci-fi or Horror, if you have too many close to each other the general audience my not look into all of them and give them a chance (only the hardcore fans of that genre will and that will not be enough) I really think only romantic comedies and animated features are the most resistant to this.

It doesn't mean the genre is fatigued, just that the GA wants some space between releases to watch other genres instead of perceived consistant bombardment of that particular genre.

Just my opinion.

 

[marvelrobbins]

from twitter it apocalypse grossed 4 million on Wedsday and has grossed 90 million domesticly

 

[InCali]

How much do you guys think this movie will make ww?

By my calculations if stays in theater for 10 weeks it will be a total of 180m domestic plus 300 internationally = 480m ww

By these numbers I don't think it will reach 500m anymore

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=x-men2016.htm

X men should do better numbers than Ant Man.

 

[superweirdo87]

Just playing around with numbers, let's say...

170M Domestic gives studio roughly 85M (50%)

250M International without China gives studio roughly 100M (40%)

80M China gives studio roughly 16M (20%)

The total gross would be 500M but the studio would only get roughly 201M.

But...ancillary revenues? And marketing costs, participations.

The movie cost over 500M to make, market, and manufacture home videos for. And it would likely get around 400M in revenue. So, like a 100M dollar loss for Fox.

 

[Sithborg]

But...ancillary revenues? And marketing costs, participations.

The movie cost over 500M to make, market, and manufacture home videos for. And it would likely get around 400M in revenue. So, like a 100M dollar loss for Fox.

Unless you are their accountant, that is just a lot of guesswork. I don't think the expectations for this movie were that high, so I think Fox will be okay, even with a disappointment.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Unless you are their accountant, that is just a lot of guesswork. I don't think the expectations for this movie were that high, so I think Fox will be okay, even with a disappointment.

But franchise won't.Fox won't give up on X-men.hell acording to kinberg they
aren't giving up on FF but something is going to happen if fox takes a loss
on Apocalypse.at minuem fox will spend less on the films.

Fox can better react than WB did because wb was already commited with start date for justice league.with fox apart from wolverine film that is filming now they are free to make any adjustments since none of films in devolpment have a release date yet.

Who knows what will happen In next X-men film.

 

[superweirdo87]

Deadline is useful on this front.

http://deadline.com/tag/movie-profits/

I think studios get 51-55% of the domestic take.

So, 75 for 150 domestic, 98-110 for overseas 260-290 that doesn't include china, and like 18-20 for china (25% take.)

It would be like 193 in theaters.

PPV/VOD/TV might be like 40M
Foreign TV might be like 60M
Global home entertainment is like a net 40M profit

Then there's the tie-ins like Sky, M&Ms, the car ads, and stuff.

 

[daddydivine]

But franchise won't.Fox won't give up on X-men.hell acording to kinberg they
aren't giving up on FF but something is going to happen if fox takes a loss
on Apocalypse.at minuem fox will spend less on the films.

Fox can better react than WB did because wb was already commited with start date for justice league.with fox apart from wolverine film that is filming now they are free to make any adjustments since none of films in devolpment have a release date yet.

Who knows what will happen In next X-men film.

Exactly, they've finished off an arc and they have a new franchise already on good footing. They don't have to make big shakeups like DC they can just reorganize. It's weird that I'm a prolific Fox-men hater but I love me some Deadpool. Goes to show that quality doesn't care about my fanboyism.

 

[SAUspartan]

Movie is doing fine.

 

[Logan0327]

i dont think super hero fatigue is what hurt XMA i hate that phrase been hearing it for years what hurt XMA was that it felt and looked generic and been there done that

Deadpool,BVS,Civil War and Suicide Squad all looked fresh and different while x men was just an all powerful mutant who wants to destroy the world and the x men have to stop him

in a year with 6 CBM you just cant afford to churn out a been there done that type of super hero movie even tho i really liked XMA i will admit it was kinda generic and forgettable

 

[Wildcard]

Movie is doing fine.

That's the problem. It's doing fine....not EXTRAORDINARY.

It's going to get beat by Deadpool, which featured an X-Man audiences previously knew nothing about but got more characterization than 90% of the main roster.

Fine is not good enough.