Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Xrated48]

I feel like the next x-men may do better in a month like September or October when there are barely any big blockbuster like films.

 

[InCali]

I think $600 is likely.

I hope it moves into that territory and I hope Fox figures out a way to make X movies (so to speak.....) that resonate with the GA. We need more cool Sci-Fi, SH, Fantasy movies.

Rooting for Fantastic Beasts, Dr. Strange, and cool Fox movies....AND that FF goes back to Marvel. Just sayin'......

 

[Wildcard]

I still don't buy the 178 mil reported budget. Also, there's marketing cost to be factored in as well. When you start to argue that a movie that is the end of a trilogy is doing well despite the fact that it's making less than its predecessor, you have a problem.

I can buy the $178 million budget, certainly doable. But yes, once you factor in marketing (which easily takes the expenses beyond $200 million) then the numbers its doing become slightly worse than mediocre.

And the fact that it can't even gain momentum despite the competition coming in far weaker than projected doesn't soften matters either.

 

[Superhero 101]

I feel like the next x-men may do better in a month like September or October when there are barely any big blockbuster like films.

I think a August release date is perfect because by then most blockbusters have released and there usually isn't any competition. GOTG released in August and it worked out for them.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

last two X-Men movies in China (according to boxofficemojo)

Days of Future Past total $116,490,000 / opening: $39,350,000
The Wolverine: total $ 40, 570,000/opening $18,170,000


$ 80,000,000 seems to be totally fine then in comparison?! Why so much
doom-mongering?

(in Sophie Turner voice)

We want the movie to do better than XDoFP.

 

[Metamorpheus]

I think a August release date is perfect because by then most blockbusters have released and there usually isn't any competition. GOTG released in August and it worked out for them.

I think Fox should release the next X-Men movie during Deadpool's February release date and release Deadpool during X-Men's usual May/July release date. Deadpool's fanbase will flock regardless of season but when it comes to X-Men, too much competition and oversaturation appears to be their undoing in the box office regardless of RT. A February President's Day or Valentine's Day release will give enough buffer from the yearly Star Wars December timeslot and a headstart from any March or April tentpole. This will give audiences who are looking for action but don't normally watch X-Men movies an opportunity to check it out at a time when there's little to choose from.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I also believe releasing a superhero movie at an early part of the year is better like January, February or March.

 

[Metamorpheus]

^^^ Not to mention the ability to promote heavily during SuperBowl, NBA All Stars and NHL All Stars leaving a fresh impression on a lot of people's minds.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

^^^ Not to mention the ability to promote heavily during SuperBowl, NBA All Stars and NHL All Stars leaving a fresh impression on a lot of people's minds.

True!

 

[mightiest_mortal]

People really need to stop using Deadpools Box office as a comparison for CBMs. That was an anomaly and as much as piss-take of the genre as it was a part of it.

In terms of X-Men, I don't think "fatigue" is the right term, it's more "who the **** has the time and money to keep going to the cinema every other week for each new release?". I don't know if it's different in US, but in the UK its £15 a ticket, more for 3D. As soon as you have a family going or buy popcorn/drinks its really not a cheap night. I just went with one friend for this rather than a group; people wanted to see it but there's just been a lot to see at the cinema over the past months so it's taking a lot more for people to fork up to go.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

People really need to stop using Deadpools Box office as a comparison for CBMs. That was an anomaly and as much as piss-take of the genre as it was a part of it.

It's gonna be pressure for the next Deadpool movie.

 

[psylockolussus]

We are now talking about releasing a "X-Men" film in months like October/September. How the mighty have fallen!

 

[MadVillainy]

We are now talking about releasing a "X-Men" film in months like October/September. How the mighty have fallen!

Money is money.

It'll do great in whatever month it's released. They're expanding the blockbuster months anyway

 

[psylockolussus]

There's a reason why studios release their blockbuster movies in summer months or holiday. When days, like Monday/Tues/Wed/Thurs are stronger in ticket sales. Though February, March and April are proving to be stronger. But September? isn't it the month where kids go back to school, after January, its like the most quiet month of the year when it comes to movies and you want to release X-Men there?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Worldwide: $281,493,524

 

[psylockolussus]

Well at least it would finally outgross X1 (worldwide) in the next 2 to 3 days!

 

[MadVillainy]

There's a reason why studios release their blockbuster movies in summer months or holiday. When days, like Monday/Tues/Wed/Thurs are stronger in ticket sales. Though February, March and April are proving to be stronger. But September? isn't it the month where kids go back to school, after January, its like the most quiet month of the year when it comes to movies and you want to release X-Men there?

They will still make money.

Deadpool, Kingsmen/Kung Fu Panda 3 to a lesser extent made tons of money in February and January. Something as big as X-Men can be released in whatever month and be successful.

X-Men is a big franchise that has a pretty big built in fanbase. It'll be fine wherever. Probably a better move to put it in summer, but I don't think it'll hurt it much more but releasing it somewhere else. The quality matters more to me, and most other people than the release date

EDIT: Gravity and the Martian opened in October and made over 600 mill each.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Well at least it would finally outgross X1 (worldwide) in the next 2 to 3 days!

Indeed. And it should reach $400 million by Monday.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

There's a reason why studios release their blockbuster movies in summer months or holiday. When days, like Monday/Tues/Wed/Thurs are stronger in ticket sales. Though February, March and April are proving to be stronger. But September? isn't it the month where kids go back to school, after January, its like the most quiet month of the year when it comes to movies and you want to release X-Men there?

May is actually a good month but if the company sees that there will be a lot of competition on that month, they should change the date. Also if they see that there will be like two or more superhero movies to be released before May , then should should change the release date to an earlier month.

 

[psylockolussus]

They will still make money.

Deadpool, Kingsmen/Kung Fu Panda 3 to a lesser extent made tons of money in February and January. Something as big as X-Men can be released in whatever month and be successful.

X-Men is a big franchise that has a pretty big built in fanbase. It'll be fine wherever. Probably a better move to put it in summer, but I don't think it'll hurt it much more but releasing it somewhere else. The quality matters more to me, and most other people than the release date

EDIT: Gravity and the Martian opened in October and made over 600 mill each.

Gravity and The Martian had great legs and those were not not your typical action blockbuster movie that are usually frontloaded. X-Men movies are your typical frontloaded action blockbuster films. The only X-Men films that are not that frontloaded is (obviously) Deadpool and X1.

And yes they could earn money if they had a production budget of $50 to $120 million by releasing those movies in those month but for X-Men... I don't think that kind of money is enough. For Deadpool/Wolverine sure... but X-Men, unless you want street-level action, sure. But Avengers/Spider-Man type action where almost everyone has their own mutant power, it needs bigger budget than $150 million. Apocalypse had a budget of "178" million and the effects/sets still look poor. What about if they reduce the budget again?

I would be okay for March. But September/October/January? I don't think its a good decision.

 

[MadVillainy]

Gravity and The Martian had great legs and those were not not your typical action blockbuster movie that are usually frontloaded. X-Men movies are your typical frontloaded action blockbuster films. The only X-Men films that are not that frontloaded is (obviously) Deadpool and X1.

And yes they could earn money if they had a production budget of $50 to $120 million by releasing those movies in those month but for X-Men... I don't think that kind of money is enough. For Deadpool/Wolverine sure... but X-Men, unless you want street-level action, sure. But Avengers/Spider-Man type action where almost everyone has their own mutant power, it needs bigger budget than $150 million. Apocalypse had a budget of "178" million and the effects/sets still look poor. What about if they reduce the budget again?

I would be okay for March. But September/October/January? I don't think its a good decision.

The Martian and Gravity had good legs because they were good movies.

X-Men could have better legs if they make widely seen as good movies. I think part of the reason X-Men film have crappy legs is because there is so much competition now in the summer market. Gravity and THe Martian had 100+ mill budgets and did great in those months.

You put out a quality X-Men film in whatever month it's going to make bank. X-Men has an intergenerational fanbase that will flock to the theaters no matter the month. And if it's good and EVERYBODY is saying how good it is, it could still make potential money in January, Feb, Sept, Oct...

Is it a definite decision that FOX should do, no I'm not saying that. But I don't think that it would be bad for them to do it. Actually looking at it I think it would be smart for them to release it in like Octobers. Little to no competition there usually until mid November. X-Men could clean up there

I get what youre saying that, especially Jan and Sept, that people just came off of huge spending seasons. However like I said, I think X-Men is known enough for it not to matter much. People will find the money if they hear its good

 

[psylockolussus]

Days of Future Past was a good movie but it didn't have good legs.

Like I said its typical for action blockbusters to be frontloaded. Gravity/Martian are different films compare to X-Men and superhero films. Thats like comparing a X-Men film to perform like a Pixar film.

It also doesn't help that we have seen multiple X-Men movies since 2000.

 

[MadVillainy]

Days of Future Past was a good movie but it didn't have good legs.

Like I said its typical for action blockbusters to be frontloaded. Gravity/Martian are different films compare to X-Men and superhero films. Thats like comparing a X-Men film to perform like a Pixar film.

when was DOFP that released again? May. And I honestly dont think the GA likes DOFP as much as fanboys do. Same with First Class. At least from what Ive seen

Of course Gravity and The Martian are different from X-Men films, but would you expect them to have gotten the same results released in May.

And fine scrap the Gravity, Martian complaint. THen what about Deadpool and Kingsmen? Both had great legs, were heavy on action, and weren't released the summer months. I guess you can say the comedy helped them, but I think a huge factor was the fact they were released when there was little to no competition (that being said on another note: really bad move from them to put Kingsmen in February)

I just havent seen evidence that it would be a bad decision to move the movie to October. I can kinda see the argument for September or January, but I still think there's potential there if it's largely seen as a good movie and gives the people the spectacle they want, which I dont think an X-Men movie has done in a long long time

 

[psylockolussus]

you know what, maybe it could have opened bigger in a month like September, when there isn't a new blockbuster coming out every weekend but there are a LOT of action films that underperformed in months like january, September and October. Heck, if Maze Runner 2 cost as much as a X-Men film, that would have be a big disappointment to Fox.

Anyway, if you think a X-Men ensemble film can perform better in a month like January, September and October. Oh well. I'm not gonna argue anymore.

 

[MadVillainy]

you know what, maybe it could have opened bigger in a month like September, when there isn't a new blockbuster coming out every weekend but there are a LOT of action films that underperformed in months like january, September and October. Heck, if Maze Runner 2 cost as much as a X-Men film, that would have be a big disappointment to Fox.

Anyway, if you think a X-Men ensemble film can perform better in a month like January, September and October. Oh well. I'm not gonna argue anymore.

Last point, I agree that a lot of movies in January, Sept, and October underperform...but that's because they suck. Those movies don't get good box office because they suck not just because of their release dates. Release a well recieved by the audience movie it'll make money