Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[ImSGirl95]

Oh nice. I love the look of your alphabet haha.

How popular is X-Men there compared to other CBMs?

Well, I think the Avengers are indeed more popular compared to the others, but Deadpool did the best this year:

Avengers 1 ow: $232,228
A: AoU ow: $194,722
CW ow: $185,804
XMA ow: $108,050
BvS ow: $183,348
DP ow: $212,231

But out of those big franchises I think F&F is doing the best.

F7 ow: $406,090

P.S: Those numbers are taken from boxofficemojo

 

[Weather Witch]

Domestic is collapsing if that's true. It's going to have to work to meet FC.

I'm afraid so.

But good news is estimates have it opening north of 60m in China (DOFP opened with 39m).

That will at least make the number look a bit bigger. t:

 

[superweirdo87]

Reviews do matter. Statistical analyses should that reviews affect gross, especially over time. 20 points on metacritic is associated with 15M in increased revenue at the domestic box office. They do not matter that much, but they do count.

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-quality-vs-box-office-grosses

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Old_Projects/kennedy.pdf


"First Class" performing like XMA with much better reviews does not show reviews don't matter because other factors might have favored XMA. The reviews might have boosted "First Class," and hurt XMA. But other factors favored XMA over XM:FC, and these kind of washed out.

The old cast definitely would have done better, but I don't know that it would be the slam dunk some of all you envision. I could see an opening around 88M. Assuming a multiplier of around 1.9-2 with mixed reviews and the generic plot, the final gross would have been 165-180M domestic. Notably better.

But, I don't think 650 would have been locked, for instance. With 88 OW, and 1.9-2 mutliplier having the mixed reviews, the final domestic might be 180M. With 85 OW and a 2.27 multiplier, a bit over 190M domestic. To get to 650, you would need 460-470 abroad. XMA has a bad release date in China, and that would affected the original team too. Sequels have also been lagging their prior installments. And the generic plot, world destruction, and mixed reviews may well have taken a toll in Europe and Australia. And they exchange rates are less favorable.

 

[superweirdo87]

I do agree that this cast and set-up do have a smaller fanbase and what not and they seem to play in a different range. A better movie with stronger reviews and a more compelling premise/pitch would likely perform more strongly than X:MA. Audiences really want something different and new, and XMA retreaded over a lot of familiar territory and relied heavily on tropes that audiences have seen before.

I do think that with a creative team shakeup, stronger reviews, more novelty, and a more compelling pitch, the movies could do 170-180 domestic. Obviously, not as high as one would want or a movie with these things and the original cast. Not totally unacceptable, though.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Spiderine]

I've never even heard of Me Before You.

Me either.......but it looks like its gonna be Them before Xmen.

 

[Marvel]

I've never even heard of Me Before You.

They really are fooling everyone with that film. It looks like a sweet chick flick but in the end it's all about assisted suicide and morbid crap. The movie is honestly an insult to anyone that's disabled in that way. As if they have nothing to contribute and killing yourself is the best option. I HATE that it's beating X-Men.

Also, anyone factor in a J-Law backlash? Not simply her overexposure but being front and center bashing Trump and anyone that has voted for him??? Trust me, it got a lot of play in some circles and it got a number of people saying they would avoid her films because of it. I'm certainly NOT a fan of Trump but I think it's idiotic when "celebrities" express their dumbass opinions and alienate large segments of ticket buyers.

Tarantino learned this the hard way on his last movie. Even if you agree with his stupidity, why talk trash and alienate people in general? Hateful Eight's domestic box office suffered huge. In similar ways, J-Law did nothing but hurt this X-Film from start to lackluster promotion especially domestically.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

The main problem is that x-men are tired of Fox trying to make Mystique the hero just cause of the actress. They promoting and doing the story for the actress and not for the character.

Gambit will flop. His name doesn't carry the same weight as Deadpool, Spideman, Batman.

He never was the leader of anything, neither x-men, neither x-factor, nothing.

Fox is thinking lets make a movie about for the actor Channing and let him pick the character. If Channing liked lets say Sunspot, the movie would probably about Sunspot. And this type of decisions don't sit well with fans.

If they were to make another solo movie besides Wolverine trilogy and Deapool, they should do about a character fans love like Rogue for example which Fox never got it right before, but hey, they finally redeemed Deadpool after X-men origins wolverine, they can do the same for Rogue and even with the same actress. We can't blame actors cause they're following the material and script that it were given to them.

Seriously, Mystique solo movie and Gambit solo movie are bad idea.

Good idea, Rogue solo movie with a Wolverine, Mystique and Nightcrawler small parts and the introduction of Gambit. They can go around with the who Miss Marvel thing just by using a mutant with miss marvel powers and a different name, there you go.

 

[Iceman]

Well, I think the Avengers are indeed more popular compared to the others, but Deadpool did the best this year:

Avengers 1 ow: $232,228
A: AoU ow: $194,722
CW ow: $185,804
XMA ow: $108,050
BvS ow: $183,348
DP ow: $212,231

But out of those big franchises I think F&F is doing the best.

F7 ow: $406,090

P.S: Those numbers are taken from boxofficemojo

Damn F7 was huge there!

Thanks for that, good to know.

 

[BeholdMe]

Both a Gambit and Rogue movie would flop they don't have enough compelling story away from the XMen to work solo in a movie, neither of them are Deadpool or Wolverine even with a great characterization a Rogue solo would stil flop. All we can hope is when she is introduced again they get it right and do more with the character.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

It's called hiring passionate writers and director's to create the movie.

 

[GuestStar2004]

The main problem is that x-men are tired of Fox trying to make Mystique the hero just cause of the actress. They promoting and doing the story for the actress and not for the character.

That really is a silly way of looking at it, its pretty obvious its all on bryan singer and simon kinberg the direction they went with mystique, there is no reason to make her into a hero because it was jennifer lawrence and if we say its just so they can keep her around i doubt they need an excuse for that since they haven't needed one for magneto in the last 6 movies and certainly didn't need one to give him the switch from bad guy to hero role in apocalypse.

No one can say why they are doing it but bryan saying he think mystique would make a good solo movie character shows his view on the character

Fox is thinking lets make a movie about for the actor Channing and let him pick the character. If Channing liked lets say Sunspot, the movie would probably about Sunspot. And this type of decisions don't sit well with fans.

what you think fox would make a sunspot movie just because of tatum? i doubt it, gambit has been left on the table for a while as a solo characrter movie

 

[marvelrobbins]

there is no way of saying gambit solo will bomb.and unlike many gambit has a story with thieves and assassins guild that can justify a solo film.and Channing tatum is star who wants to play gambit.

Rogue solo film is dumb idea.just as a mystique one is one.

and i will say this again.the powers people want with rogue are ms marvel's.
rogue's mutant power is absorbing.

 

[YoungBlood]

It's called hiring passionate writers and director's to create the movie.

Dredd had passionate people working on it and even though it was decent (too bad The Raid came out first), it still flopped.

 

[Superhero 101]

I don't think a gambit solo would flop if the budget is reasonable around 75 million and the story and direction is good I think it is enough to make 300-350 million ww

 

[marvelrobbins]

I don't think a gambit solo would flop if the budget is reasonable around 75 million and the story and direction is good I think it is enough to make 300-350 million ww

cutting down the budget is probally a reason why gambit in undergoing rewrites.

 

[imfinewithit]

I hope Gambit works out as well. He's one of the few X-Men characters that actually has enough compelling non-team relations to work out solo.

Rogue I don't really see. Her strongest connection would be to the Brotherhood, but that feels more like Mystique's story.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I think because there are just a lot of good movies with kinda the same genre that people tend to lose interest

 

[BeholdMe]

I don't think a gambit solo would flop if the budget is reasonable around 75 million and the story and direction is good I think it is enough to make 300-350 million ww

Ok I won't say flop because with the right creative sauces it would work I just think it would even do Wolverine-Deadpool numbers but the numbers you posted I can indeed see. It all depends on the budget as to whether it will flop or not so 300 million is the ballpark I can see it making. I would just prefer seeing him as a member of a team rather than a solo movie

 

[sleekstereo]

For this to beaten by Me Before You? That is embarrassing. A 75% drop is horrible.

I'm sorry, heads are going to roll at Fox with this one.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

Dredd had passionate people working on it and even though it was decent (too bad The Raid came out first), it still flopped.

If Dredd had a Marvel logo it would've did better.


Gambit will have Marvel logo = $... But idk FoX ****ed our franchise up now

 

[RLAAMJR.]

9 more million to make it to $300 million

 

[def28]

Dredd had passionate people working on it and even though it was decent (too bad The Raid came out first), it still flopped.

Nobody knew Dredd was even released. That was the issue with Dredd.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I really hope Fox considers giving us a Storm movie.

 

[ImSGirl95]

For this to beaten by Me Before You? That is embarrassing. A 75% drop is horrible.

I'm sorry, heads are going to roll at Fox with this one.

And Me Before You is also rotten on RT.

Seriouslly, the X-Men has come to the point when other studios won't be afraid to release their movies against them.

I want to ask something:
Any idea how much does the movie needs to make to break even? If the budget is 178 and if the budget is 234 million.

 

[Xrated48]

I think at the moment any solo movie for fox that is not Deadpool or Wolverine will most likely flop