Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[jaymes_e06]

I think we all know by now...

 

[marvelrobbins]

I think we all know by now...

Yep.I say there is little chance of that with hugh jackman about to leave.
Maybe there would surprise us and bring back patrick stewart and possibly others to be supporting characters in present/future set Spin-offs like gambit and X-force and if new mutants is set in present that too.

while i do think fox would recast wolverine i think that's more likely for the
apocalypse cast In future X-men films.X-23 seems to be getting setup to fill wolverine's role in future set films like X-force.

 

[Iceman]

Haven't checked in in a while. How is it looking at the moment?

 

[superweirdo87]

520M to 530-somethingM WW by the end of its run

 

[superweirdo87]

One interesting thing is while the original team does seem to have an advantage due to (a)greater appeal to audiences, maybe in huge part due to Jackman, (b) 18-24 yos have lost interest in moviegoing making it harder to get new fans and (c) some of the audience seems to have left X-Men behind after X3 and Origins. But, how far that goes without Jackman remains a big question.

And it would matter for costs. The old cast might cost more and demand more in back end deals. Fox will eventually make 77M off of DOFP, according to Deadline. The profits were hurt by back-end deals. Participations (back end deals) cost 100M in part because of the original cast.

How much better would the movie fare with the old cast? The OD for DOFP was 35-36M. If you use the X3 multiplier for the weekend that gets you 80-81M for the 3-day weekend. With an X3 multiplier for the entire run, it would be like 183-185M domestic, about 30M more than than XMA seems like it will take in. The WSJ estimated that a movie makes 1.53 dollars for every dollar it makes in the US. So, that would be around 45-50M more for Fox. (This assumes that subject matter/content and market would not have hurt the OD number.)

But, salaries in production cost might be 25M more and then participations might work out to 15-20M more. That would like 40M more in costs. So, the higher revenue in 45-50M would be offset by 40M in higher costs. That would give Fox like 5M to 10M more. It would not be a game changer in profits.

 

[GuestStar2004]

One interesting thing is while the original team does seem to have an advantage due to (a)greater appeal to audiences, maybe in huge part due to Jackman, (b) 18-24 yos have lost interest in moviegoing making it harder to get new fans and (c) some of the audience seems to have left X-Men behind after X3 and Origins. But, how far that goes without Jackman remains a big question.

See the thing about that is as pointed out before jackmans solo movies are hardly breaking the bank, they do fine to warrant making them but they ain't ain't making spider-man or iron man money, infact the last wolverine didn't even make captain america 2 money

Now obviously i feel i should bring up that yeah people will say its because he needs to be with others to be the stand out but i still find that weird that wolverine doesn't have appeal by himself unless he stands among other characters and then he is the highlight that brings the audience in.

So to take that into consideration i do question if you took out the FC cast, the high concept of DOFP cross over stuff and just put them into the exact same apocalypse story... would it have made that much more?

 

[jaymes_e06]

520M to 530-somethingM WW by the end of its run

Most likely it will get to 520 by next weekend and it still has yet to premiere in Japan. X:A can get to anywhere from 535 to 550 mill WW if Fox is lucky.

 

[2kt09]

how does Boxofficemojo work?
The total gross went from $510 mil to $508 mil

 

[superweirdo87]

The preliminary numbers are estimates, and they update when actual figures come in.

 

[X-Maniac]

See the thing about that is as pointed out before jackmans solo movies are hardly breaking the bank, they do fine to warrant making them but they ain't ain't making spider-man or iron man money, infact the last wolverine didn't even make captain america 2 money

Now obviously i feel i should bring up that yeah people will say its because he needs to be with others to be the stand out but i still find that weird that wolverine doesn't have appeal by himself unless he stands among other characters and then he is the highlight that brings the audience in.

So to take that into consideration i do question if you took out the FC cast, the high concept of DOFP cross over stuff and just put them into the exact same apocalypse story... would it have made that much more?

Jackman's Wolverine movies (and most of the X-Men movies in general aside from Deadpool and X3) just aren't 'pop culture' enough to do big business.

For all its faults, X3 was a very 'pop culture' movie exploring the Cure idea and having lots of laughs ('Grow those back' as Jackman kicked that guy in the nuts brought the house down when i saw the movie).

In the latest films, DoFP and XM:A, there have been pop-culture moments (Quicksilver, mostly) but the rest of the movies might have been too laborious or portentous for the general audience who want a good time at the flicks (which is why Transformers etc does well).

This is why the X-Men films now need a new direction with a bit more snap, crackle and pop, as well as kick-ass action.

At the moment, the X-films fall between the brooding (and technically faultless) work of Nolan's Batman films and the easy-to-watch, dynamic, comics-come-to-life of Disney/Marvel's offerings.

 

[YoungBlood]

Jackman's Wolverine movies (and most of the X-Men movies in general aside from Deadpool and X3) just aren't 'pop culture' enough to do big business.

For all its faults, X3 was a very 'pop culture' movie exploring the Cure idea and having lots of laughs ('Grow those back' as Jackman kicked that guy in the nuts brought the house down when i saw the movie).

In the latest films, DoFP and XM:A, there have been pop-culture moments (Quicksilver, mostly) but the rest of the movies might have been too laborious or portentous for the general audience who want a good time at the flicks (which is why Transformers etc does well).

This is why the X-Men films now need a new direction with a bit more snap, crackle and pop, as well as kick-ass action.

At the moment, the X-films fall between the brooding (and technically faultless) work of Nolan's Batman films and the easy-to-watch, dynamic, comics-come-to-life of Disney/Marvel's offerings.

You don't mean "dumbing them down" for the audience do you?

 

[Superhero 101]

Why would the world forgive him? He tore apart half the world, surely killing millions. Magneto should never be allowed to be thought of as the 'good guy'.

I mean thats how i interpreted the ending of Apocalypse where the newscast was narrating how Magneto helped stopped Apocalypse

 

[X-Maniac]

You don't mean "dumbing them down" for the audience do you?

Well, not necessarily, but they need a bit more fizz at times.

Surely films adapted from a source should attempt to meet (or exceed) expectations?

X-Men: Apocalypse clearly didn't, or the reviews and box office wouldn't be as they are.

I wouldn't want an Age of Ultron or Jurassic World result, but a shift in focus is now needed. We have a very good Jean, Scott, Kurt and Storm to use as basis for the future (plus a new Jubilee who looked great from the little we saw). A new trilogy should be built around those four, in my view. Whatever themes/symbolism they want to explore should connect back to those four.

 

[YoungBlood]

Well, not necessarily, but they need a bit more fizz at times.

Surely films adapted from a source should attempt to meet (or exceed) expectations?

X-Men: Apocalypse clearly didn't, or the reviews and box office wouldn't be as they are.

I wouldn't want an Age of Ultron or Jurassic World result, but a shift in focus is now needed. We have a very good Jean, Scott, Kurt and Storm to use as basis for the future (plus a new Jubilee who looked great from the little we saw). A new trilogy should be built around those four, in my view. Whatever themes/symbolism they want to explore should connect back to those four.

That's fair.

 

[BeholdMe]

I prefer new movies with the Original Cast and new characters(Dazzler,Longshot,Polaris..)

Well it's not going to happen there ancient and the only one I would want to see again is Stewart because he was brilliant in the role. There just not coming back for a full film more than half of them were terrible in the parts anyway, though Jackman was awesome in the role I don't want another Wolverine centric film either.

 

[BeholdMe]

Well, not necessarily, but they need a bit more fizz at times.

Surely films adapted from a source should attempt to meet (or exceed) expectations?

X-Men: Apocalypse clearly didn't, or the reviews and box office wouldn't be as they are.

I wouldn't want an Age of Ultron or Jurassic World result, but a shift in focus is now needed. We have a very good Jean, Scott, Kurt and Storm to use as basis for the future (plus a new Jubilee who looked great from the little we saw). A new trilogy should be built around those four, in my view. Whatever themes/symbolism they want to explore should connect back to those four.

Exactly this I totally agree with you.

 

[StormC]

550M seems like a plausible end after it opens in Japan and limps on its last legs. Not too far off from my 500M prediction.

 

[Storm22]

Well, not necessarily, but they need a bit more fizz at times.

Surely films adapted from a source should attempt to meet (or exceed) expectations?

X-Men: Apocalypse clearly didn't, or the reviews and box office wouldn't be as they are.

I wouldn't want an Age of Ultron or Jurassic World result, but a shift in focus is now needed. We have a very good Jean, Scott, Kurt and Storm to use as basis for the future (plus a new Jubilee who looked great from the little we saw). A new trilogy should be built around those four, in my view. Whatever themes/symbolism they want to explore should connect back to those four.

Agreed. As much as I enjoyed Apocalypse I do think a fresh approach would be beneficial. I don't think Singer's contribution should be dismissed though, he succeeded at bringing an emotional depth to his X-Men movies - something the Avengers movies and most of the individual Marvel movies sorely lack.

 

[Alison Blaire]

Well it's not going to happen there ancient and the only one I would want to see again is Stewart because he was brilliant in the role. There just not coming back for a full film more than half of them were terrible in the parts anyway, though Jackman was awesome in the role I don't want another Wolverine centric film either.

I don't like the new teen cast,sorry.The original is always the best.

 

[henzINNIT]

Please with the reaching, they didn't have that much screentime to garner this their film, especially when you had Storm go mute after she became a horseman you know very well this wasn't there film yet an introduction to them. The point still stands that the new cast received mostly praise and good recognition with what little they did. They worked with what they had if you wanted to blame them for doing good with the little they had them that's crazy. Yes I wanted more but that certainly is not their fault that we didn't. So I'm not seeing your point this was mainly a conclusion to the FC cast and an introduction to the new cast. I truly did want more from Storm,Jean,Cyclops,Nightcrawler and Jubilee and for them well some of them to be utilized a bit more than they were but as I said with what they had they did good so I'm not going to fault them when they aren't the ones making the script.

How is that reaching? A bad film could sink a good cast. The new guys did well but their reception will be affected by the film they are in. I'm sure they'll get another film though.

 

[thecatacombs]

Agreed. As much as I enjoyed Apocalypse I do think a fresh approach would be beneficial. I don't think Singer's contribution should be dismissed though, he succeeded at bringing an emotional depth to his X-Men movies - something the Avengers movies and most of the individual Marvel movies sorely lack.

doesn't matter they bring in $$$ so i doubt Marvel cares that they are lacking emotional depth

 

[ApophènX]

Actually Marvel has emotional depth too, CW had some great, it's just that they make their movie in more mechanical way, it feels like a well oiled machine, it's more concrete. More blockbuster. X-Men are more organic and bring emotion in there own way, wich touch me way more. GoTG was great at that too, lots of colors and a more natural flow with some poetry, i want to see what there coming up with next. As "nulber two are always more dark and complex"

 

[BeholdMe]

I don't like the new teen cast,sorry.The original is always the best.

That's not true only a few are the great the rest are rather bad. Of course you won't like the new cast because they are replacing your beloved cast in which most of them have done better with the little they had.

How is that reaching? A bad film could sink a good cast. The new guys did well but their reception will be affected by the film they are in. I'm sure they'll get another film though.

That's the thing their reception(the new cast) wasn't slammed nor hated it was other reason other than the newbies that made the movie not as good as it could've been. They did well with what they had they can't make the director change things and give them more at least not yet. I'm certain they will get another film as well.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

I'd be happy if the young X-Men + New Members could have a film that didn't acknowledge Singer's film in any way shape or form except the following joke..


on The Blackbird (F a X-Jet) and like a rebooted Rogue Or Iceman asked "You guys really go outside in these things?" And Cyclops would respond "What you prefer? Black leather?" As a giant **** you to Singer

 

[BeholdMe]

They never had obligation to use magneto or mystique, its not just because of Jlaw and if you read what bryan singer said about a solo mystique movie... he doesn't feel jennifer would be needed for that either so lets ignore that for a moment and remember clearly they have never obligated to take out 2 characters that fans feel should be villains and keep 2 that fans feel should be the only continuous part of the stories and truth be told that probably won't change either.



None of them need to be there, it just depends who they feel is important to this XMen movies series



But thats not the case at all though, jubilees scenes were not cut because of magnetos role and she wasn't not part of the team at the end because of magneto either, most of the decisions that are made are not because magneto is getting screentime, yes i get it people are peeved that they didn't get more to do but that has less to do with magneto and more to do with them just not bothering, i mean how difficult would it have been to throw in a couple more lines for them after they become horseman? and all that akali lake stuff was very important also.

Also look at quicksilver he is the highlighted character of the movie and it didn't take much at all to do that, we didn't have to cut characters out so people could get into him... no because people liked the small doses they got of him and want to see more... magneto is not to blame for other characters not getting that same treatment.

And as i said if what kinberg said a while ago about "next generation of X-Men characters" means anything at all then the new cast should get more focus for the next couple of movies but given how important magneto and mystique have been to this series the idea that they will suddenly be pushed to the side and have no importance just sounds unrealistic and since they don't really plan these films out very well chances and likely also don't have enough faith too they probably wouldn't think ah lets not have them in the next one and we will bring them back in the one after that.

Sorry I'm just now getting to this. These are different times and sometimes revisiting the same villian or villian turned good girl gets stale. I don't care if JLaw comes back or not I just want the Mystique character retired she is the one character I actually enjoyed more in the OT idk what character we have onscreen now. Well I hope in the future they decide the most important characters to an XMen movie are the actual XMen sometimes it's ridiculous how they handle things. I never said we had to cut out characters to make others shine but it's the reality of what they do which is evident in the movies. I personally like QS very much so I enjoy seeing him but I'm not here for popular characters getting the silent treatment for those whom have had more development over time. It's time to move on to different characters. As I said I really hope they focus on the new cast if they indeed do that I will have no issues with which characters return because the others will get their proper shine.