Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[GuestStar2004]

X-Force is made out of X-Members so yea, probably

Your trying to escape the inevitable Gueststar. X-Force and X-men are more then likely to run into each other. Nothing wrong with that.

There are many things about this film universe that you could have considered inevitable, obviously the moment you compare the films to the comics as being the inevitable is when it goes wrong.

 

[Smilodon]

But DOFP did take place in the same continuity as X1-Wolverine. It takes place a decade after that, then they go back to 1973 and to change the future.

 

[superweirdo87]

How exactly was Avengers a one time boost? Leaving out both Avengers and AOU, the Phase 1 films averaged $225M at the domestic BO. The Phase 2 films averaged $278M. That's a 23.5% boost.

And the cost of bringing back the non-Jackman members of the OT cost shouldn't be prohibitive. If I were FOX I would feel much more confident in a film slate the sprinkled the likes of Marsden, Grammer, Berry and Jannsen among X-Force and New Mutants characters than I would sending the youngins' on a 90s era space mission.

The costs might not be prohibitive, but they are potentially higher, and it is unclear how stronger their appeal is without Jackman.

I don't see why X-Force can't be its own thing and has to involve the original team.

 

[def28]

There are many things about this film universe that you could have considered inevitable before finding out its not happening, obviously the moment you compare the films to the comics as being the inevitable is when it goes wrong.

I just don't understand your logic when things are clearly established or just flat out make sense if they want to go a route.

 

[magneto23]

I was all for going a new direction (First Class is my favorite) but the original cast and characters had more success, even with poor films. Can't deny that any more. This one lost major box office right when the quality went down. X3 and even XMOW regardless of being leaked prior to release, had a more impressive run.

What you can't deny is the fact that the entire superhero movie landscape has changed since the OT days. Expectations are higher. Competition is heavier. Plus social media outlets now will spread word of mouth faster and in incalculably greater quantity than back in 2006. Don't get why people keep bringing the casts up. Like its the FC cast's fault or the OT could have done better. Its ridiculous. They made a mediocre movie with a weak titular villain. BO was going to suffer regardless of the cast with that kind of drop in quality.

 

[def28]

They never had that critic proof pull on their own. What's difficult to understand?

First Class and DOFP were received well. After two good films they usually don't fall off this drastic. The main issue was obviously quality, and that's what makes the next movie difficult for this cast. Which I actually liked btw. But I'm not gonna lie to myself about Hugh Jackman still being a big sell for audiences in X-Men films. Or that the next film starring this cast isn't in trouble.

 

[henzINNIT]

I can't fathom how anyone could be using the "OT cast is too expensive" argument now contracts are up on the First Class actors.

 

[superweirdo87]

I personally have no desire to see another movie with the original cast, and I don't really feel any emotional connection to them either. I would also note that since one poster here demanded no more younger versions and in their view no more flops X-Men films asked people whether they agreed. 8 out of 10 people said no.

https://***********/XMenFilms/status/743987127348666369

With respect to the line that emotional connection does not matter if people do not come, box office is not just yes or no. There is an audience, perhaps smaller. The key to business is the net, not the gross.

This movie going to make 525M. I think a movie with this cast that had a more intriguing premise, stronger, reviews, and better word of mouth could do better. And a trimmed budget would be possible at say 160M.

Deadline estimated that Godzilla made a 1.12 cash on cash return with a gross of 529M WW on a 160M budget. Days of Future Past made 1.13 dollars for every dollar in cost, in part because of the price of the cast and participation hurt the profits.

http://deadline.com/2015/03/godzilla-profit-box-office-2014-1201389604/
http://deadline.com/2015/03/x-men-days-of-future-past-profit-box-office-2014-1201389620/

The can use the money they saved for projects with a higher rate of return.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I just don't understand your logic when things are clearly established or just flat out make sense if they want to go a route.

your logic is very much they did it once they might aswell milk that beast and while i know you feel the success of deadpool will change the universe rather then just give FOX a desire for more deadpool movies alone and all i can say is i seen expectation, comic to screen expectation, i been on here a while now and it rarely ends up being what we get on screen so in the end any expectation you have should be lowered if you want to come out of it satisfied because it will just continue to disappoint

And hey give me credit everyone was like hey the sentinels can come back because they are big in the comics and i said they wouldn't undo the events of DOFP like that but they could maybe put them in the danger room as an excuse to keep them around... and wow they did ;p, so yeah my logic sometimes has some sense to it

 

[def28]

your logic is very much they did it once they might aswell milk that beast and while i know you feel the success of deadpool will change the universe rather then just give FOX a desire for more deadpool movies alone and all i can say is i seen expectation, comic to screen expectation, i been on here a while now and it rarely ends up being what we get on screen so in the end any expectation you have should be lowered if you want to come out of it satisfied because it will just continue to disappoint

And hey give me credit everyone was like hey the sentinels can come back because they are big in the comics and i said they wouldn't undo the events of DOFP like that but they could maybe put them in the danger room as an excuse to keep them around... and wow they did ;p, so yeah my logic sometimes has some sense to it

Cable is confirmed dude. They won't cut out or completely ignore the X-Men in these new films. Colossus was there to be a contrast to Deadpool's character it wasn't a last minute. Your reasoning that having X-Men in these films somehow equals them taking over just doesn't make sense.

I remember the sentinel conversations , I'm the one who debated with you haha. Back after one film.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I can't fathom how anyone could be using the "OT cast is too expensive" argument now contracts are up on the First Class actors.

I think what it really comes down to is that there is more of the OC, and several of them are on their 5th or 6th movie, which means more money and really for example berry wasn't on contract for X3 or DOFP so the money went up for X3, DOFP and would again for the next one, there is no we will pay you the same amount each time

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I think what it really comes down to is that there is more of the OC, and several of them are on their 5th or 6th movie, which means more money and really for example berry wasn't on contract for X3 or DOFP so the money went up for DOFP and would again for the next one, there is no we will pay you the same amount each time

Not exactly.

Very few members of the original cast have a red hot career at the moment. Berry certainly cannot command the same pay day she received 10 years ago.

A new negotiation with her would be very different now. The same applies to Famke, Marsden, Paquin and others.

Only McKellan, Stewart and Jackman could demand the big bucks.

 

[superweirdo87]

They never had that critic proof pull on their own. What's difficult to understand?

But, one thing you have to consider is time period. Theatrical attendance has declined and social media has allowed word of mouth to spread quickly.


"Movie reviews historically didn't damage the opening weekend of major titles. That was in the days before social media, though," said Box Office Prophets founder David Mumpower. "Now that word spreads so rapidly, in any instance where a blockbuster suffers through some savage reviews, the studio has cause for concern. The under-30 crowd, the bread and butter of movie box office, are savvier than ever. If their friends say something is terrible, they'll spend their money on something else."
Read more at http://www.hitfix.com/news/3-big-re...re-past-at-the-box-office#cYa8JbWzA4vQoxfB.99

One thing about X3, reviews, and box office, is that it did came out before social media really caught fire. Also, theatrical attendance has declined over time in the domestic market.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?sort=totaltickets&order=DESC&p=.htm

 

[GuestStar2004]

Not exactly.

Very few members of the original cast have a red hot career at the moment. Berry certainly cannot command the same pay day she received 10 years ago.

A new negotiation with her would be very different now. The same applies to Famke, Marsden, Paquin and others.

Only McKellan, Stewart and Jackman could demand the big bucks.

Is that really how it works though? do you accept less then you made for the last movie? or do you take as much as you can get to show how much you are worth?

if you get asked back do you basically give a discount offer or do you say ok lets talk money?

 

[def28]

But, one thing you have to consider is time period. Theatrical attendance has declined and social media has allowed word of mouth to spread quickly.


"Movie reviews historically didn't damage the opening weekend of major titles. That was in the days before social media, though," said Box Office Prophets founder David Mumpower. "Now that word spreads so rapidly, in any instance where a blockbuster suffers through some savage reviews, the studio has cause for concern. The under-30 crowd, the bread and butter of movie box office, are savvier than ever. If their friends say something is terrible, they'll spend their money on something else."
Read more at http://www.hitfix.com/news/3-big-re...re-past-at-the-box-office#cYa8JbWzA4vQoxfB.99

Oh I am considering that. I just don't think that's the main problem here. First Class had an uphill battle being a new cast and carrying the X-Men name after two poorly received films. They never had the time to fully recover with only themselves. They killed off most of their crew and gave screen time to original trilogy folks that fans and audiences were far more familiar with. Mainly Logan.

Apocalypse had to be good to give them more credibility. It didn't. No we are back at square one again. Only with yet another new cast, that will have to build up rep.

 

[Sithborg]

After being burned by another comic film earlier this year, it isn't too surprising that people didn't turn out when the reviews started to come in, much earlier than most movies.

 

[GuestStar2004]

They killed off most of their crew and gave screen time to original trilogy folks that fans and audiences were far more familiar with.

It sounds like the Original FC2 was gonna be the same anyway, it was gonna be mostly about xavier,magneto with the others not in the picture, it was never a case of them taking new out for the old

 

[superweirdo87]

I think what it really comes down to is that there is more of the OC, and several of them are on their 5th or 6th movie, which means more money and really for example berry wasn't on contract for X3 or DOFP so the money went up for X3 and DOFP and would again for the next one, there is no we will pay you the same amount each time

Yeah. McAvoy and Fassbender would have to re-negotiate, but the younger cast are on a multi-film deal.

And for those of you who question the price tag, Deadline reported that participation deals for DOFP cost 100 million dollars. Talent took more than the studio did.

http://deadline.com/2015/03/x-men-days-of-future-past-profit-box-office-2014-1201389620/

 

[henzINNIT]

Is that really how it works though? do you accept less then you made for the last movie? or do you take as much as you can get to show how much you are worth?

if you get asked back do you basically give a discount offer or do you say ok lets talk money?

There would be negotiations and they would want as much as they could get. I doubt anyone would demand a Jennifer Lawrence price tag though.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, there was a lot of talk about how much it cost Fox for the cast. So yeah, not too surprising that they didn't bring them back.

 

[magneto23]

They never had that critic proof pull on their own. What's difficult to understand?

With today's landscape, no one has critic proof pull. Quality falls then so will your box office.

 

[GuestStar2004]

After being burned by another comic film earlier this year, it isn't too surprising that people didn't turn out when the reviews started to come in, much earlier than most movies.

FOX didn't make that same mistake this time with Independence day 2.

 

[def28]

It sounds like the Original FC2 was gonna be the same anyway, it was gonna be mostly about xavier,magneto with the others not in the picture, it was never a case of them taking new out for the old

That's what they did though.

 

[superweirdo87]

I think sans Lawrence, the new crew would be more affordable with the young cast. McAvoy should be affordable and Fassbender wouldn't be too bad, and the young cast is under contract.

 

[def28]

With today's landscape, no one has critic proof pull. Quality falls then so will your box office.

I wouldn't say no one.

Transformers still crossed over a billion and over 250m domestic with round 4 and an 18%RT. 50 Shades did good too.

Pretty sure Fast and The Furious would be critic proof as well. As would the next Jurassic, Potter and Star Wars films.