All Things DCEU News, Discussion, and Speculation - Part 4

[misslane38]

The stock market is driven by sentiment, not hard cash.

And people who deal with the stock market are so myopic that they would make decisions based on one aspect of one division rather than the whole picture? What about prospective buyers, then? If the sentiment for it would be so bad, then why would anyone want to purchase it?

You’re only as good as your last film. And the last film pre this merger business was a massive failure.

Is that really true? Also, DC Entertainment is more than its last film; it's more than just films.

If Time Warner fails to merge with AT&T, they’re in financial trouble. When large companies are in financial trouble, they shrink to compensate, even selling profitable arms of the company in the restructure.

I get that, and it's not that I can't see why DC would be on the table. I'm just not sure about the overall assessment being made. I feel like, if Amazon and Netflix were the prime candidates for buyers, that it would be easier to sell off television networks than something as diversified in so many areas like TV, film, books, etc. as DC Entertainment.

DC Entertainment’s profits are nowhere near big enough to stop it being sold. It’s relatively tiny in the grand scheme of things, and easy to jettison if necessary. This is the most important point to remember.

What are DC Entertainment's profits as a whole? How are they compared to other aspects of Time Warner? What other options would there be?

I’d imagine Amazon would retain shows that performed well, and scupper those that don’t. They’d probably seek to bring it all in house though, as much as possible.

So, since most of the CW is comprised of DCTV shows, would they fill their schedule with new, risky shows and potentially go under as a network in its entirety?

 

[Iceman]

It's insane that people think that DC will be sold, Batman alone makes a ton of money just from merchandise and licensing. The comics have seen a resurgence thanks to Rebirth and the TV side is ticking along nicely. One thing that studios like is familiar brands and DC with its library of characters offers that in spades and owning the characters outright means you benefit from everything outside of box office. From Warner Bros POV, they'd be losing a very valuable revenue stream which is why it's very unlikely DC will be sold off, it's more likely they'll sell CNN or one of the Turner channels.

This opinion that DC won't be sold because it is doing fine is a strange one. Not sure how familiar you are with corporate takeovers and purchases of assets between companies. This happens to very successful products all the time. Large companies with high cash reserves are looking to buy things that have value. There are also plenty of cases of asset stripping of course, but even then the things offered for sale still need to have value to attract buyers and raise sufficient funds. So the likelihood of a sale is higher if DC is doing well and while it doesn't belong to one of the biggest companies in its sector.

For eg any great new tech company nowadays will instantly catch the attention of Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon and the better it does the more vulnerable it becomes to takeover bids from these companies. This notion that things that are bad are more likely to be sold off isn't quite getting what's going on as in that case it's harder to find a buyer. Everything is determined by the price on offer relative to the external analyst valuation of those assets and the future plans of the company currently owning the asset, along with its own valuation of the assets in question. Fox decided to start their asset sale to Disney (something that also would have seemed outlandish not so long ago) not because those assets were toxic but because they wanted to streamline and focus as a company and they believed that the assets on sale were at their peak value right now. They also bid for Sky because they saw value in them and Lucasfilm didn't sell Star Wars because they thought the IP was in trouble.

Absolutely anything can be sold, it's just a case of the price on offer which is usually at a premium based on the new company being able to add more value to the product through synergy than the old company was. Even a small company could buy something from a larger company if the specific asset they were going for would have more value to them than the larger company and they were willing and able to pay up for it.

 

[misslane38]

This opinion that DC won't be sold because it is doing fine is a strange one. Not sure how familiar you are with corporate takeovers and purchases of assets between companies. This happens to very successful products all the time. Large companies with high cash reserves are looking to buy things that have value. There are also plenty of cases of asset stripping of course, but even then the things offered for sale still need to have value to attract buyers and raise sufficient funds. So the likelihood of a sale is higher if DC is doing well and while it doesn't belong to one of the biggest companies in its sector.

For eg any great new tech company nowadays will instantly catch the attention of Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon and the better it does the more vulnerable it becomes to takeover bids from these companies. This notion that things that are bad are more likely to be sold off isn't quite getting what's going on as in that case it's harder to find a buyer. Everything is determined by the price on offer relative to the external analyst valuation of those assets and the future plans of the company currently owning the asset, along with its own valuation of the assets in question. Fox decided to start their asset sale to Disney (something that also would have seemed outlandish not so long ago) not because those assets were toxic but because they wanted to streamline and focus as a company and they believed that the assets on sale were at their peak value right now. They also bid for Sky because they saw value in them and Lucasfilm didn't sell Star Wars because they thought the IP was in trouble.

Absolutely anything can be sold, it's just a case of the price on offer which is usually at a premium based on the new company being able to add more value to the product through synergy than the old company was. Even a small company could buy something from a larger company if the specific asset they were going for would have more value to them than the larger company and they were willing and able to pay up for it.

This is interesting. Can you apply this analysis specifically to the Time Warner and DC Entertainment situation?

 

[FunkMiller]

This is interesting. Can you apply this analysis specifically to the Time Warner and DC Entertainment situation?

TW: “Oh no. Our merger with AT&T didn’t go through. Our stock price has fallen, and now we need to restructure, and earn money fast to bolster the company. What can we sell?”

Amazon: “We’ll buy DC off you for 4 billion dollars right now. You might earn more over the next several years from it, which is a long time... but you’ll have 4 billion now, if you sell to us.”

TW: “4 billion now? Enough money to help shore the company up? A large influx of cash that’ll settle our investors? Yes please!”

Amazon: “We’ll get the chequebook.”

And done.

I feel like, if Amazon and Netflix were the prime candidates for buyers, that it would be easier to sell off television networks than something as diversified in so many areas like TV, film, books, etc. as DC Entertainment.

Amazon want content, not delivery mechanisms. They already have that. They want IP. DC is an extremely popular IP.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Harry Potter is non-transferable right? I'm sure I read that Rowling made it so that she retains control over the rights go so that if WB goes under or surrenders it, then it would go back to her and not a new buyer. If so, that's one valuable IP down the drain for Time Warner, making it even more likely that DC could be available for the right price.

 

[FunkMiller]

Harry Potter is non-transferable right? I'm sure I read that Rowling made it so that she retains control over the rights go so that if WB goes under or surrenders it, then it would go back to her and not a new buyer. If so, that's one valuable IP down the drain for Time Warner, making it even more likely that DC could be available for the right price.

You are correct, sir. Rowling’s contract with both Bloomsbury and WB are the stuff of legend.

 

[Limonade]

You are correct, sir. Rowling’s contract with both Bloomsbury and WB are the stuff of legend.

And I bet you Amazon or Netflix would want that one franchise over DCs, if they had a choice at this moment.

 

[FunkMiller]

And I bet you Amazon or Netflix would want that one franchise over DCs, if they had a choice at this moment.

Nope. Don’t think so. The Potter-verse is quite limited. Also, the story is pretty much done. Not enough there for multiple tv shows, movies etc.

But think of all that untapped DC potential...

Swamp Thing, Zatanna, Bat family, Doom Patrol, Wildstorm universe, New Gods, GL, Sandman...

Jesus, Sandman alone could be worth a fortune.

 

[misslane38]

TW: “Oh no. Our merger with AT&T didn’t go through. Our stock price has fallen, and now we need to restructure, and earn money fast to bolster the company. What can we sell?”

Amazon: “We’ll buy DC off you for 4 billion dollars right now. You might earn more over the next several years from it, which is a long time... but you’ll have 4 billion now, if you sell to us.”

TW: “4 billion now? Enough money to help shore the company up? A large influx of cash that’ll settle our investors? Yes please!”

Amazon: “We’ll get the chequebook.”

And done.

But, according to your earlier logic, DC was such crap that Time Warner wouldn't want it. Why would Amazon want it, unless you want to change your original position that DC was toxic. Does selling DC help Time Warner as much as it would hurt it? Do they have other options?

Amazon want content, not delivery mechanisms. They already have that. They want IP. DC is an extremely popular IP.

So DC is extremely popular now? Weren't you singing a different tune earlier? So, according to you, they would just be buying the IP? If delivery mechanisms are so important, then how would Netflix ever work? It can't sell comic books. How would selling DC to Amazon affect local comic book shops that sell hard copies of comics? Basically, what about when buying an IP can damage the current delivery systems that make the IP popular, or does it affect that at all? For example, the CW DCTV shows work because they are on a network for 20+ episodes. If Amazon buys DC, and gets the CW DCTV rights, then they won't have the ability to deliver those shows in the same way. Even Amazon's and Netflix's nascent filmmaking efforts don't speak to the ability to helm such a substantial project as DC related films. If they can't transfer the content successfully, would it be worth the investment? How much would they have to start from scratch, and how much extra cost does that add?

 

[Limonade]

Nope. Don’t think so. The Potter-verse is quite limited. Also, the story is pretty much done. Not enough there for multiple tv shows, movies etc.

But think of all that untapped DC potential...

Swamp Thing, Zatanna, Bat family, Doom Patrol, Wildstorm universe, New Gods, GL, Sandman...

Jesus, Sandman alone could be worth a fortune.

What? You were totally saying something else earlier!

And also when has limited ever stopped a franchise. Isn't Amazon doing a new Lord of the Rings? I mean you could make the argument that LotR falls under the likes of HP.

 

[FunkMiller]

But, according to your earlier logic, DC was such crap that Time Warner wouldn't want it. Why would Amazon want it, unless you want to change your original position that DC was toxic. Does selling DC help Time Warner as much as it would hurt it? Do they have other options?

TW wishing to lose DC thanks to recent DCEU failures, and DC being profitable in other areas are not mutually exclusive things. DC films are the toxic bit right now.

Apologies though - should have been clearer- the DCEU is the crap that could push TW to sell, the rest of DC is the good stuff that Amazon would want to buy.

So DC is extremely popular now? Weren't you singing a different tune earlier? I get the IP issue, but if they buy a network, can't they get access to that IP or just buy the IP? If delivery mechanisms are so important, then how would Netflix ever work? It can't sell comic books. How would selling DC to Amazon affect local comic book shops that sell hard copies of comics? Basically, what about when buying an IP can damage the current delivery systems that make the IP popular, or does it affect that at all? For example, the CW DCTV shows work because they are on a network for 20+ episodes. If Amazon buys DC, and gets the CW DCTV rights, then they won't have the ability to deliver those shows in the same way. Even Amazon's and Netflix's nascent filmmaking efforts don't speak to the ability to helm such a substantial project as DC related films. If they can't transfer the content successfully, would it be worth the investment? How much would they have to start from scratch, and how much extra cost does that add?

If Amazon bought DC they’d be free to keep the CW shows on the CW if they wanted to, or put them on the streaming service. This would probably be the most likely scenario. Everything in one place. That maximises Amazon’s profits by pulling in new subscribers.

 

[FunkMiller]

What? You were totally saying something else earlier!

How so?

 

[Limonade]

How so?

Why would Amazon buy something TW deems a failure? Especially when there are more successful franchises out there, that WB has, and that would produce better results with minimal amount of effort.

Ain't nobody got time to cultivate a perceived franchise in dire straits. Especially when the top companies can pick the best meat off... hypothetically speaking.

I think other franchises have a better chance of getting picked up. DC certainly is up there, probably top 3 IPs, I'll give you that...

But lets not kid ourselves in that there's a road to redemption in the film world that WB has to tackle to regain favor from the audience.

Hopefully Wan's Aquaman can do that alongside the Teen Titans Go! movie being released this year. But at this moment, I can see other franchises that's under the house of WB with more appeal with little to no work to be done to be massively popular.

 

[misslane38]

TW wishing to lose DC thanks to recent DCEU failures, and DC being profitable in other areas are not mutually exclusive things. DC films are the toxic bit right now.

Time Warner wouldn't want to lose DC just because of some recent film failures. They'd have to have other reasons, like just being desperate, in part because the films as a whole have been profitable and so have other aspects of DC Entertainment.

If Amazon bought DC they’d be free to keep the CW shows on the CW if they wanted to, or put them on the streaming service. This would probably be the most likely scenario. Everything in one place. That maximises Amazon’s profits by pulling in new subscribers.

Does Amazon currently have any shows on network TV? How would that work? Also, you previously said that Amazon would want DC for the IP since they have a delivery system, but now you're saying they would want to keep the original delivery system. Does that mean partnering with Time Warner (WB/CBS) who runs the CW and sharing some of the profits? I don't think the CW shows are transferable to Amazon. They're not written that way, and I imagine contracts would have to be renegotiated. It would also effectively destroy the CW network which relies on those shows. What about comic books?

 

[Milk Tray Guy]

Harry Potter is non-transferable right? I'm sure I read that Rowling made it so that she retains control over the rights go so that if WB goes under or surrenders it, then it would go back to her and not a new buyer.

You are correct, sir. Rowling’s contract with both Bloomsbury and WB are the stuff of legend.

Wow, I didn't know that.

 

[FunkMiller]

Why would Amazon buy something TW deems a failure? Especially when there are more successful franchises out there, that WB has, and that would produce better results with minimal amount of effort.

Ain't nobody got time to cultivate a perceived franchise in dire straits. Especially when the top companies can pick the best meat off... hypothetically speaking.

I think other franchises have a better chance of getting picked up. DC certainly is up there, probably top 3 IPs, I'll give you that...

But lets not kid ourselves in that there's a road to redemption in the film world that WB has to tackle to regain favor from the audience.

Hopefully Wan's Aquaman can do that. But at this moment, I can see other franchises that's under the house of WB with more appeal with little to no work to be done to be massively popular.

I should have been clearer....

The DCEU is toxic, and could be a persuading factor in TW putting the company up for sale. The rest of DC is still an attractive proposition to a buyer like Amazon. The two things can do-exist together, and could make a sale likely, should the merger fall through.

Something’s that looks bad short term, but good long term is ripe for a corporate sale.

 

[FunkMiller]

Time Warner wouldn't want to lose DC just because of some recent film failures. They'd have to have other reasons, like just being desperate, in part because the films as a whole have been profitable and so have other aspects of DC Entertainment.

Does Amazon currently have any shows on network TV? How would that work? Also, you previously said that Amazon would want DC for the IP since they have a delivery system, but now you're saying they would want to keep the original delivery system. Does that mean partnering with Time Warner (WB/CBS) who runs the CW and sharing some of the profits? I don't think the CW shows are transferable to Amazon. They're not written that way, and I imagine contracts would have to be renegotiated. It would also effectively destroy the CW network which relies on those shows. What about comic books?

Yeah... it would be a huge deal if Amazon bought DC, wouldn’t it? It could kill the CW shows, or significantly alter them. They could come over to Amazon video, or not. Supergirl moved from CBS. All these things are possible. Any deal can be made if the money and contracts are right. And as for comic books... you think Amazon would struggle to print and sell them?

 

[Limonade]

I should have been clearer....

The DCEU is toxic, and could be a persuading factor in TW putting the company up for sale. The rest of DC is still an attractive proposition to a buyer like Amazon. The two things can do-exist together, and could make a sale likely, should the merger fall through.

Something’s that looks bad short term, but good long term is ripe for a corporate sale.

Could be... once all the good parts of WB is taken off the table, that is. Then those companies would have to take that risk and do something with the properties.

 

[misslane38]

Yeah... it would be a huge deal if Amazon bought DC, wouldn’t it? It could kill the CW shows, or significantly alter them. All these things are possible. Any deal can be made if the money and contracts are right. And as for comic books... you think Amazon would struggle to print and sell them?

If the deal kills the CW shows or significantly alters them, then the one aspect of DC Entertainment that you put in the good pile ceases to exist. So not only does Amazon have to buy the "toxic" DCEU, it may also lose the successful DCTV in the exchange due to restructuring challenges. Is it worth it?

My question about the comics is in reference to the effects Amazon printing and selling the books would have on traditional distribution, particularly local comic book shops. I'm not opposed to change and evolving the industry, but I do think Amazon having a larger role in the comic book business could be a source of controversy and friction.

So would Amazon make DC Comics available exclusively through Amazon or would customers still be able to buy comics at the LCS? And, even if the comics book be available at the LCS, would it be cheaper and easier to buy via Amazon, which would really hurt the LCS and put them out of business, too?

 

[Limonade]

If the deal kills the CW shows or significantly alters them, then the one aspect of DC Entertainment that you put in the good pile ceases to exist. So not only does Amazon have to buy the "toxic" DCEU, it may also lose the successful DCTV in the exchange due to restructuring challenges. Is it worth it?

My question about the comics is in reference to the effects Amazon printing and selling the books would have on traditional distribution, particularly local comic book shops. I'm not opposed to change and evolving the industry, but I do think Amazon having a larger role in the comic book business could be a source of controversy and friction.

So would Amazon make DC Comics available exclusively through Amazon or would customers still be able to buy comics at the LCS? And, even if the comics book be available at the LCS, would it be cheaper and easier to buy via Amazon, which would really hurt the LCS and put them out of business, too?

ComiXology is a cloud-based digital distribution platform for comics. It is a subsidiary of Amazon...

If Amazon grabbed the DC it could move it's content over to ComiXology (maybe making it digital only, worst-case scenario) and probably forcing out any other comics from its platform.

Amazon, surprisingly has been in the comic's business since 2014.

 

[FunkMiller]

If the deal kills the CW shows or significantly alters them, then the one aspect of DC Entertainment that you put in the good pile ceases to exist. So not only does Amazon have to buy the "toxic" DCEU, it may also lose the successful DCTV in the exchange due to restructuring challenges. Is it worth it?

In my scenario, they clearly wouldn’t carry on with the DCEU...

And yes, of course it would be worth it. All those characters to leverage? All that material to draw from?

And I’m pretty sure the CW shows could transfer over to the Amazon streaming platform with some changes, to be honest. Again - Supergirl from CBS to CW.

My question about the comics is in reference to the effects Amazon printing and selling the books would have on traditional distribution, particularly local comic book shops. I'm not opposed to change and evolving the industry, but I do think Amazon having a larger role in the comic book business could be a source of controversy and friction.

So would Amazon make DC Comics available exclusively through Amazon or would customers still be able to buy comics at the LCS? And, even if the comics book be available at the LCS, would it be cheaper and easier to buy via Amazon, which would really hurt the LCS and put them out of business, too?

Amazon buying DC could negatively impact local comic stores, of that there is no doubt. But Amazon sell their own novels into book stores, so I don’t see a reason why that couldn’t be done with comics too. I’d imagine they’d want to push digital comics a lot more as well, given the Kindle.

ComiXology is a cloud-based digital distribution platform for comics. It is a subsidiary of Amazon...

If Amazon grabbed the DC it could move it's content over to ComiXology (maybe making it digital only, worst-case scenario) and probably forcing out any other comics from its platform.

Amazon, surprisingly has been in the comic's business since 2014.

Excellent point! Forgotten all about Comixology!

 

[misslane38]

ComiXology is a cloud-based digital distribution platform for comics. It is a subsidiary of Amazon...

If Amazon grabbed the DC it could move it's content over to ComiXology (maybe making it digital only, worst-case scenario) and probably forcing out any other comics from its platform.

Amazon, surprisingly has been in the comic's business since 2014.

I'm aware of that. I'm not talking about digital. I'm talking about hard copies of comics. People still like to have those, you know. It's a business that is the livelihood of many people who own, run, and work at local comic book shops in towns and cities everywhere. What would a sale of DC do to that traditional form of distribution? Obviously, those shops would be able to sell Marvel and other comics, but to not be able to sell DC Comics would be a huge blow. If local comic book shops die because of DC, then that affects Marvel's sales in those shops as well.

 

[Fincher]

And I’m pretty sure the CW shows could transfer over to the Amazon streaming platform with some changes, to be honest. Again - Supergirl from CBS to CW.

That's not a comparable situation. CBS co-owns The CW, and they chose to move the show. The CW aren't going to want to give up the majority of their most successful shows.

 

[misslane38]

In my scenario, they clearly wouldn’t carry on with the DCEU...

Depending on when the sale goes through, do they have that choice? Some films are still in production and ready for release. Not to mention that they still have to buy a company and IP that has the reputation that those films have earned. Even if they redo it themselves, that's a handicap in addition to having to find a way to produce those movies in the future.

And I’m pretty sure the CW shows could transfer over to the Amazon streaming platform with some changes, to be honest. Again - Supergirl from CBS to CW.

I disagree. The CW shows are not shorter seasons like Amazon shows. They are written with commercial breaks in mind. The very structure of the shows would change. If that happens, actors' contracts would have to be renegotiated, since they would be based on a certain amount of episodes.

Amazon buying DC could negatively impact local comic stores, of that there is no doubt. But Amazon sell their own novels into book stores, so I don’t see a reason why that couldn’t be done with comics too. I’d imagine they’d want to push digital comics a lot more as well, given the Kindle.

That won't be popular with LCS owners at all, I don't think.

 

[Fincher]

Actually, though, thinking about it, a WB who had sold DC would have incentive to get rid of their DC shows because they'd no longer be network-owned (all the CW shows are either CBS or WB, or a co-production between them). So yeah, they might just hand the shows over to Amazon.