B/O Forecast: Pirates 3 Vs. Spider-Man 3

[Catman]

Shrek seems like the safer movie, the family movie, the date movie. Something pretty appealing for all.

Exactly. Spider-Man 3 has an older fan base that will go see the movie BUT the kid audience is still very important. You lose them and it affects the box office. Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom & Batman Returns are perfect examples. Both movies could have easily been #1 for their year but parents felt it was too dark for their children and it affected the B.O. Both films were still a hit. Both films were the #3 film of their year but both could have been #1.

 

[Erzengel]

If parents want a kids friendly movie, Shrek is pretty much it.

FF doesn't start til the middle of June.

Oceans 13, and Die Hard are more adult oriented.

Transformers is not til July as well as Ratattouille. And it doesn't really look like Transformers will be some kiddy movie.

 

[Catman]

And it doesn't really look like Transformers will be some kiddy movie.

I doubt it will. Its target audience is `80s kids. Seriously...only people who grew up in the `80s care about the movie. This isn't Bugs Bunny we're talking about. Transformers isn't a timeless cartoon that every generation has enjoyed. It is basically a popular `80s tv series. Plain and simple.

 

[WorthyStevens]

As long as they both deliever, they will both do good. Now if one does not deliever the goods (Like Superman Returns did not) it will fail.

I think the real loser of this competition however, will be Shrek 3...which is much more dependant on a young audience who will not be able to see 3 movies in the same month. Pirates and Spider-man have audiences outside of the young crowd...Shrek doesn't.

I agree. I'm not saying Shrek won't make a pretty penny - because it will - but Dreamworks shot themselves in the foot by releasing their movie just a week before Pirates 3.

May should be an interesting month to watch.

 

[Matt]

I actually think Disney and Dreamworks may be shooting themselves in the foot.

There has been practically no advertisment for either film (Shrek or Pirates) 2 months before release.

Disney is getting cocky. They think because they are riding the wave of Pirates 2's success it will do well regardless. And that momentum will help it, but to not advertise it is stupid.

As for Shrek, I don't know what the hell Dreamworks is thinking. They are the underdogs in what is probably going to be the most profitable month in the history of the movie industry with what will be in theory two of the biggest movies ever being released and they are just ignoring advertisement. It is strange.

 

[jaydawg]

That 7 min clip pretty much assures that SM3 will be of better quality, but BO? I havent the slightest on this threeway fight. SM, Pirates and Shrek are the big 3 franchises of the 21st century. I think Shrek will be at the bottom and Spidey will be at top only because of the two weeks it has in front. Pirates probably would take it if they were the same day though.

 

[Erzengel]

I had to find the Shrek 3 trailer online. Of course I don't watch too many kids movies so I'm not sure if they were attached.

I did see a Shrek 3 teaser poster when I saw 300 today.

 

[Matt]

I had to find the Shrek 3 trailer online. Of course I don't watch too many kids movies so I'm not sure if they were attached.

I did see a Shrek 3 teaser poster when I saw 300 today.

I haven't heard of it being attached to anything main stream nor have I seen any TV spots (though it is a bit early). I've yet to see the poster. Dreamwork's really needs to step it up.

 

[Darth Elektra]

I dont see Shrek 3 even being in the same boat as AWE and Spidy3.

 

[Warhammer]

Spider-Man franchise had a better track record than POTC with box office.
Dead Man's Chest was a mystery and I still, to this day, wonder how this film was so successful.

It doesn't matter, though. Which ever wins between these two, they still probably lose to Potter, or even WORSE, the goddamn Shrek 3.

 

[CAH]

I honestly don't know for sure, but i would say SM3.

Sure, both films are going to be absolutely fantastic and both are going to be for sure "epic'...but Spider-Man 3 DOES have 2 full weeks to itself...

BTW, didn't I make a thread like this a couple of months ago?

CAH

 

[slipknotrocks]

Awe.

 

[Darth Elektra]

I honestly don't know for sure, but i would say SM3.

Sure, both films are going to be absolutely fantastic and both are going to be for sure "epic'...but Spider-Man 3 DOES have 2 full weeks to itself...

BTW, didn't I make a thread like this a couple of months ago?

CAH

AWE has 2 weekends all by itself, then on the third weekend, Oceans 13 comes out.

 

[mclay18]

We've had...what...5 Harry Potter movies so far? Only one of them was #1 at the box office. So, I doubt the new one will magically be the biggest film of the year. Transformers has the `80s kids behind it but that doesn't mean anything.

Well, yeah, the first HP movie was #1 at the box office, but the successive three were in the top five of their respective years (and I think HP-5 will be in top 5 of 2007 as well). And the HP movies have much more longevity than POTC and SM, which have now only gotten to the third installments of their respective franchises. (Of course, the quick Harry Potter movie turnaround time is also due to keeping up with the three stars aging throughout and the success of the book series.)

But May should be an interesting month to observe. I really don't know who'll emerge the winner. I'd say POTC 3 will win (due to the fact that POTC 2 was immensely successful) but I'd prefer SM-3 to be the winner. I'm lost as to how much either will gross upon opening weekend.

 

[Catman]

I actually think Disney and Dreamworks may be shooting themselves in the foot.

There has been practically no advertisment for either film (Shrek or Pirates) 2 months before release.

Well, there's already two Shrek trailers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aZXVzUQGA4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMf-mo_tFlA

I'm sure we'll see more in the upcoming weeks.

 

[Mr. Socko]

I think that Harry Potter will demolish them both, worldwide, but that's beyond the point.


Between Pirates and Spidey, it's a VERY hard choice, but just because Pirates is fresher in everyone's mind and everyone wants to know how Sparrow returns, it gets my vote.

 

[Galactus]

Worldwide I think Pirates will win. And I think it can be bigger than Harry Potter also. I think a summer release will affect Harry Potter negatively. Prisoner of Azkaban has the weakest performance of all HP-movies so far, and that one was released in summer

 

[Mr. Socko]

As a fanboy I'm glad it's releasing this summer because it's closer. But looking at it from a marketing standpoint, they'd have been better off with a winter/nov release.

 

[BloodyWolverine]

I think Pirates will win by a crooked Barbossa nose. But i would not count out Transformers not being in there as a hit. July is a big box office time.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Spidey will wear the crown in 07. Venom is just too much and the action in this one will be way more than the 2nd one which was lacking...which hurt the box office.

 

[Darth Elektra]

I still say AWE takes it.

The trailer will kickass and will have everyone talking.

 

[Catman]

Trailer premieres March 19. Lets see if it kicks ass or not.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Spidey 3 = 425 million
Pirates 400 million.

 

[Hunter Rider]

I think they open to close together for either to make $400M and i also think fanboys completely overestimate the mainstreams interest in Venom,the MJ/Pete story is what they care about.

 

[blind_fury]

Yeah, because romance movies usually make 800 million worldwide.