B/O Forecast: Pirates 3 Vs. Spider-Man 3

[Hunter Rider]

Titanic ?The point being without the emotional centre that is MJ/Pete the movies wouldn't be as successful

 

[Mr. Credible]

i can't imagine any particular film this summer breaking any records. with so many blockbusters coming out in such a short time, i hardly think too many people are going to blow $10 a show to see them all, let alone twice. they'd end up spending at least $100 on movies over the summer alone, and most people don't have that kind of money to waste. between transformers, spider-man, pirates, and shrek (not to mention the 30 other movies coming out in that time frame) i doubt any movie is going to walk away with a record-breaking summer...

...that said, i think spider-man 3 will come out on top. the first two were great, and it has the most hype behind it. i haven't heard anything about pirates 3 in some time, and i think the 2nd left the general public a little cold... it simply wasn't that good.

 

[blind_fury]

Titanic ?The point being without the emotional centre that is MJ/Pete the movies wouldn't be as successful

lolz. Can you name any other romance movies in the last 10 years that made anything close to Spider-man?

And Tobey Maguire ain't a heartthrob like Leonardo DiCaprio. So I doubt girls are lining up to see Spider-man movies ten times to see Maguire's dorky smile.

 

[arachnid-guy]

lolz. Can you name any other romance movies in the last 10 years that made anything close to Spider-man?

And Tobey Maguire ain't a heartthrob like Leonardo DiCaprio. So I doubt girls are lining up to see Spider-man movies ten times to see Maguire's dorky smile.

Lol.

It's so true.

 

[Hunter Rider]

lolz. Can you name any other romance movies in the last 10 years that made anything close to Spider-man?

You keep missing the point,without the emotional centre the movies wouldn't be so successful and Venom isn't a big deal to the mainstream like he is to fanboys,that was what i was saying.

 

[I_Hate_U_All]

venom's a bigger deal than sandy pants, that's for sure.

And whats really drawing people to the spidey movies is the action. The stories aren't that great really.

 

[Excel]

shrek will top both.

 

[Hunter Rider]

If it was just action that was drawing ppl then there are movies out there with much better action than the Spidey films especially the first one,What Raimi has done is brought characters to the screen that ppl care about and are invested in which means the action matters as opposed to many films where it's just a series of fights and explosions with no heart.

 

[Electrix]

Well this being SHH it is obviously Spiderman 3 would be winning this poll.

This should be re-done again in a months time, when both movies start advertising.

Take a read of this:

`Spider-Man' & `Pirates' Show Off on TV
Friday March 9 9:07 PM ET

Two of the summer's most anticipated movies signed on for small-screen appearances before their big-screen debuts.

An exclusive preview of "Spider-Man 3" aired during NBC's "Heroes" this week. A commercial also invited Spidey fans to catch more than seven minutes of never-before-seen film footage on the NBC Web site.

The trailer for "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" will make its worldwide debut during the "Dancing with the Stars" season premiere on March 19 and simultaneously on popular shows in 61 other countries.

It's big-screen/small-screen synergy, said Mark Zoradi, president of Walt Disney Motion Picture Group, which will release "Pirates" in the United States on May 25.

"Broadcasters were anxious to get the trailer because they knew it would be supportive of driving viewership to their particular shows," he said, adding that unveiling the trailer during popular programs will allow it to reach "in excess of 200 million people."

"Dancing with the Stars" signed on instantly, he said.

"They loved the idea because they know how popular `Pirates of the Caribbean' is," he said. "When we pitched the premiere of the trailer with the premiere of `Dancing with the Stars,' it just made sense to them."

ABC, which airs "Dancing with the Stars," is owned by the Walt Disney Company.

Matching a big-screen hero with his small-screen counterparts was "a natural," said Valerie Van Galder, president of marketing for the Columbia TriStar Motion Picture Group, which will release "Spider-Man 3" domestically on May 4.

"Spider-Man" and "Heroes" have similar themes, she said: ordinary people in extraordinary circumstances. Plus, she added, both the "Spider-Man" trailer and the "Heroes" episodes were "cliffhangers."

"It was a happy confluence of events," she said. "We had the perfect footage and they had the perfect opportunity."

Ted Frank, NBC's executive vice president of entertainment strategy and programs, called the partnership a "win-win."

"Heroes" posted some of its highest ratings of the season this week, he said: "It's a combination of the fact we had a big `Heroes' episode we had been building for weeks and the fact we had a big `Spider-Man' preview."

It's enough to make some people tune in just for the commercials.

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/ap/20070309/117350322000.html

 

[Cinemaman]

Spidey all the way. POTC won't be even close (and I'm talking about quality). The Box Office doesn't mean nothing to me.

I think you mean "Box Office doesn't mean anything to me"

To every summer blockbuster BO means everything, just like for Oscar nominated picture critics' reviews.

 

[Cinemaman]

Agreed. I was expecting Superman Returns to be the biggest hit of 2006 but after it didn't deliver the goods I realized it would flop.



I think Shrek 3's advantage is that its light-hearted PG movie. Spidey 3 and POTC 3 are both dark. Soccer moms hate that! Lets not forget that Batman Returns got its ass wooped by Aladdin and Home Alone 2 cause it was dark. And, remember Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom? Soccer moms complained that it was too dark for kids and it hurt the films box office. I wouldn't be surprised if Spider-Man 3 suffered that. Parents may think its to dark for kids.

Actually it was in past. Now such dark summer blockbusters as ROTS and LOTR take everything.

The real problems of POTC3 are marketing strategy (I'd say there isn't actually any promotion plan) and hype level (9 months, who would go to see it).

On the other hand there is Spidey 3. It has only one problem, Sony overused it's potential power and has already showed about 30% of the movie. But still, it's not as serious as POTC3 negative sides.

So that's why I am sure that Spidey 3 will rule this summer (domesticly).

 

[Cinemaman]

If parents want a kids friendly movie, Shrek is pretty much it.

FF doesn't start til the middle of June.

Oceans 13, and Die Hard are more adult oriented.

Transformers is not til July as well as Ratattouille. And it doesn't really look like Transformers will be some kiddy movie.

I will be sureprised, if TF makes more than it's budget. And that's my honest opinion.

 

[Cinemaman]

AWE has 2 weekends all by itself, then on the third weekend, Oceans 13 comes out.

It also has Memorial Day.

But I doubt it will help POTC3.

Spidey 3 has:

1. The first weekend of May.

2. Two weeks.

3. And the best marketing strategy among Shrek 3 and AWE.

 

[Cinemaman]

Spidey 3 = 425 million
Pirates 400 million.

I think neither of them will make $400m, your numbers are too high.

I'd say Spidey 3 will get very close to $400m ($391m - my forecast).

What about POTC3, it will get close to $350m.

 

[Cinemaman]

If it was just action that was drawing ppl then there are movies out there with much better action than the Spidey films especially the first one,What Raimi has done is brought characters to the screen that ppl care about and are invested in which means the action matters as opposed to many films where it's just a series of fights and explosions with no heart.

Have you alredy seen Spidey 3?

If it has 3 villians and 5 action scenes, it doesn't mean it will lose it's drama part.

Just look at BB, it has 3 bad guys as well, and neither of them hurted the movie.

There will be two fights between Sandman and Spidey, one Aerial scene, one fight with Venom and Battle Royale.

And as Arad said, Spidey 3 will be over 2 hours.

 

[Electrix]

It also had Memorial Day.
3. And the best marketing strategy among Shrek 3 and AWE.

How can you say it has the best when AWE hasnt even started theirs yet?

The only way to see if its the best is with the Box Office Numbers.

 

[Cinemaman]

How can you say it has the best when AWE hasnt even started theirs yet?

The only way to see if its the best is with the Box Office Numbers.

It has already started it's promotion, posters are done and next week we will get trailer.

We can figure it out already.

Spidey 3:
5-6 posters
Teaser-trailer
Full Trailer
Final Trailer
7-minure preview
First Look
Comic-Con trailer

POTC3:
3-4 posters
Full Trailer

Shrek 3:
3-4 posters
Teaser Trailer
Full Trailer

As we see Disney decided to use the same plan, which was done for DMS. That's their mistake, overestimating.

 

[Electrix]

As we see Disney decided to use the same plan, which was done for DMS. That's their mistake, overestimating.

Didnt DMC make over $1 Billion worldwide? It obviously worked.

 

[Cinemaman]

Didnt DMC make over $1 Billion worldwide? It obviously worked.

Oh god, the smae marketing strategy must not be used twice, because it always ruins everything.

DMC had very high hypeness level and it had only SR as the main competition.

Now things are changed. Such huge shark as Spidey 3 looks like new ROTS (I am talking about potential power in BO, not quality), so it will take domestic top.

Just remember what happened with The Matrix 3. Sequel made amazing numbers, but third film ruined everything.

 

[Gonking]

I think you mean "Box Office doesn't mean anything to me"

To every summer blockbuster BO means everything, just like for Oscar nominated picture critics' reviews.

mmmmm...no. The Box Office should be important for the studios, not to you. You should care about the quality of the movie.

 

[Avalanche]

I can't see shrek making that much money...yes the 2nd was a hit...but nobody is even really that excited about shrek 3

Shrek 3 will be a big movie. How big I don't know, but I really don't expect it to flop. It has an awful lot of support behind it.

 

[Hunter Rider]

Have you alredy seen Spidey 3?

If it has 3 villians and 5 action scenes, it doesn't mean it will lose it's drama part.

Just look at BB, it has 3 bad guys as well, and neither of them hurted the movie.

There will be two fights between Sandman and Spidey, one Aerial scene, one fight with Venom and Battle Royale.

And as Arad said, Spidey 3 will be over 2 hours.

Cine i think you misread me,what i was pointing out is that it's the characters that people care about the drives the success of the movies not just the action,i wasn't saying anything about SM3 being good/bad or average,it was a totally separate argument was having.

 

[Matt]

i haven't heard anything about pirates 3 in some time, and i think the 2nd left the general public a little cold... it simply wasn't that good.

A lot of Superman fans were saying that last year, and now the Spider-Man fans are jumping on that boat (pun not intended). The fact is, like it or not...it made 1 billion dollars, people liked it. Movies with bad word-of-mouth do not make 1 billion. Superman proved thats. Pirates is simply a light hearted and most importantly FUN movie and that is why it makes so much money. Don't count it out just yet.

 

[Matt]

Shrek 3 will be a big movie. How big I don't know, but I really don't expect it to flop. It has an awful lot of support behind it.

The only thing Shrek has behind it is the kiddie audience though...and do you really see parents spending 60 dollars (assuming the average is 20 dollars per trip for 2 parents and a kid, two kids and a parent, whatever) to see three movies in the same month? Spider-Man and Pirates will be the hot thing with young males. Sure, Pirates and Spidey won't have the female youth audience...but they have teenagers, young adults, and even adults to fall back on. Shrek doesn't have that safety net.

 

[Cinemaman]

Cine i think you misread me,what i was pointing out is that it's the characters that people care about the drives the success of the movies not just the action,i wasn't saying anything about SM3 being good/bad or average,it was a totally separate argument was having.

LOL, my bad