B/O Forecast: Pirates 3 Vs. Spider-Man 3

[The Dark Defender]

When I saw the DMC trailer I thought it looked great (and going by the fact it broke Spidey's record, so did a lot of other people) but the movie itself was a complete bore. The CGI was fantastic, but that's about it. My friend rented the first POTC and I watched it begrudgingly, but we both ended up liking it. And while I didn't really like DMC, he actually feel asleep during it. (I think during one of the action scenes.)

So yeah, just because DMC has giant mutant Octopus doesn't mean it's better.

When I watch Black Pearl, I feel like I've been watching it for 3 hours afte barely an hour. The Will/Liz relationship is bland and generic as hell, the action scenes are one redundant, un-impressive sword-fight after another, and Depp and Rush are fun to watch while everything else in the film is tepid at best.
Davy Jones was better than Barbosa, the Jack/Elizabeth interaction is much more interesting than the generic love story just for the sake of it from film 1, and Will's storyline where he's trying to help his father is far more engaging than what he had to do last time(not that it's saying much), not to mention the Kraken alone was indeed WAY cooler than anything and everything from the action scenes in Black Pearl(again, not saying much).
I was over 90 minutes into DMC before realizing any time had passed, COTBP plods along, which is especially bad considering it's trying to be an extremely entertaining, re-watchable popcorn film. As weak as Black Pearl was, the first Spider Man film(one of the worst big budget blockbusters I've ever suffered through)makes it look like a masterpiece...no small feet at all.

 

[The Dark Defender]

Ehh...Spider-Man 3 will definitely take it. This isn't "Superman Returns". This isn't a movie about an overrated superhero returning after over 20 years.

Maybe not after 20 years, but it definitely fits the overrated superhero criteria.

 

[lordofthenerds]

pfff everyone voted Superman Returns last time to beat pirates.

i guess no one learned a thing.

Since its predecessors made $373M and $403M, Spider-Man 3 is a much safer bet at surpassing Pirates in the box office than Superman Returns was.

 

[mclay18]

Yet that still didn't help it any more in the boxoffice, it took a considerable drop in the box office from the first Spidey.

No, the drop isn't as big as you say it is. For a sequel to one of the biggest blockbusters to 2002, the final domestic gross earned up to 93% of what the first movie earned ($373.7 million against the first movie's $403 million gross). So the sequel only suffered a 7% loss and yet it was still a huge success. Most of what the studios project is that a sequel usually earns 75% of what the first movie made, but there are exceptions to the rule.

I enjoyed POTC 2 for what it was, but I found it immensely overrated. I don't doubt POTC 3 will be a huge success, maybe around the level of DMC but we'll have to see. May, as everyone has previously said, is going to be saturated with sequels to popular franchises. So, the overall quality of the movie and the enthusiasm of the fanbase will ultimately determine who will come out on top.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Anyone have the trailer that was with 300? I went three times this weekend and it wasn't attached to the prints at my theaters.

 

[mclay18]

As a fanboy I'm glad it's releasing this summer because it's closer. But looking at it from a marketing standpoint, they'd have been better off with a winter/nov release.

Oh no, the marketing for HP 5 is just perfect for this summer. It's being released a week before the final book is released, and the hype generated by the dual release will ensure a big turnout, at least on opening weekend. The WB will collect a handsome profit from this self-selling marketing -- whenever someone writes an article about HP 5, they mention the final book and vice versa.

And I'm glad HP 5 is being released in July. The main competition will have been in theaters for two months (POTC 3, SM-3, Shrek 3) and people will want to see something different.

 

[The Dark Defender]

I went to the midnight show thursday, and again today(two different prints).

The trailer was there both times.

 

[griffolyon12]

It will be close,but Spider-man 3 will probably win.SM3 is the first big blockbuster of the summer and has a whole month to get a huge lead with little competition.POTC is coming out around the same time as Shrek 3,which will take away some of its business.Now personally I feel SM3 is going to be better than pirates so I might be a little one-sided,but you have to look at it logically.Both will be great films and will do very well at the box office,but Pirates intense competition will keep it from winning.

Plus it also comes down to marketing,and right now more people are psyched more for SM3 than Pirates.Only Pirates fanboys are really psyched for it more than SM3.Pirates trailer must blow everyone away to steal SM3's hype.Overall I think Disney needs to get more agressive in its marketing strategy.

 

[griffolyon12]

No, the drop isn't as big as you say it is. For a sequel to one of the biggest blockbusters to 2002, the final domestic gross earned up to 93% of what the first movie earned ($373.7 million against the first movie's $403 million gross). So the sequel only suffered a 17% loss and yet it was still a huge success. Most of what the studios project is that a sequel usually earns 75% of what the first movie made, but there are exceptions to the rule.

I enjoyed POTC 2 for what it was, but I found it immensely overrated. I don't doubt POTC 3 will be a huge success, maybe around the level of DMC but we'll have to see. May, as everyone has previously said, is going to be saturated with sequels to popular franchises. So, the overall quality of the movie and the enthusiasm of the fanbase will ultimately determine who will come out on top.

I agree,good points.

 

[Cyrusbales]

Spider-man 3 is a little different from SR. For example, there are two, contemporary prequels that were hugely successful and regarded as the pinacle of comic book movies(not my opinion though), and the third looks better, third films in the trilogy's usually gather more speed also, yes you can say the same for pirates on that one, but POTC2 is much weaker than SM2.

 

[The Dark Defender]

I thought Spider Man 2 was ok but vastly overrated, POTC2 was far more enjoyable.
SM2 was a tremendous improvement over the first one, but it'd have been tough not to be.

 

[PirateLord89]

well if u think about it...POTC's b/o has increased per movie....though Spider-Man's has decreased...theres nowhere left to go but down for spidey...t:

Pirates 1: $305,413,918
Pirates 2: $423,315,812

Spider-Man 1: $403,706,375
Spider-Man 2: $373,585,825

 

[L0ngsh0t]

^LMAO at the people who thought Superman Returns would make Spider-Man numbers.

If SR was 1/500th the movie Spiderman was it may have come close

its a different beast this year, I still expect Pirates to take it cause the appeal is a lot wider than Spiderman which in itself has a wide appeal

and its fresh, and had a monster cliff hanger, how can anyone who has seen the first two movies not see the 3rd, cause they all wanna know what happens with Jack

 

[Catman]

had a monster cliff hanger, how can anyone who has seen the first two movies not see the 3rd, cause they all wanna know what happens with Jack

True! Even if you hated Pirates 2 you'd still be curious enough to check out the third one.

 

[DACrowe]

This is too early and too close to call,

but for this poll's sake, I'm going to guess Spider-Man 3.

And not just because it will be the better movie (and given how the screenplay was worked on for a year and a half as opposed to 3 months DURING FILMING of the third one, and the general quality of the second installments compared, I garuntee it will be)....nor my fanboyism. I predicted beforehand that POTC2 would squash SR, despite being more hyped for the latter (and being equally disappointed with both).

Anyway, the reasons:

1) SM3 has the better release date. The first movie of the summer (usually a plus with a few notable exceptions).

2) It has two full weeks of earning proceeds by itself with no competition whatsoever. Pirates 3 may have little hold over to worry about from SM3 (though it will be there, a little) Shrek 3 comes out the weekend before, and it cuts directly into Pirates 3's core audience: children and teenagers. I mean, it is likely Pirates 3 will make more than Shrek, but Shrek is going to leave a sizeable dent. And the very next week Ocean's 13 comes out, stiff competition for the teenage market.

3) Hype. People are starting to look around...and FINALLY realize, Pirates 2 was not nearly as good as the hype or box office made it out to be. Sure the DVD sold like hot cakes but it is the same gasp of air right after Matrix 2, albeit more time elapsed but the marketing dropped the ball. If SM3 started marketing too early (July of '06, really?) Pirates 3 is waiting way too late. It'll build quick hype but Sony has positioned itself since November (a good time to begin the real campaign) as THE movie of the year. The hype for Venom and the black suit (the driving forces) are a little bigger than Jack Sparrow.


Personally I think Jack Sparrow is a bigger film icon than Spidey or Venom, combine. But those three elements all tilt in Spidey's favor. I don't think either is going to make as much as fans are hoping for. I expect both to be around $400 million or most likely a little less ($380, maybe?).

Should be interesting, though.

 

[I_Hate_U_All]

Interesting matchup. Both third films and such.

Spidey will lose though. People are tired of him by now and the movie doesn't look too good to me anyway. James franco's hammy performance being a riot is not a good indication to me for the film's quality.

Pirates 3 on the other hand has consistently shown to be a beast as the box office. i expect nothing different for the third really.

 

[PirateLord89]

^actually i would say that Pirates has the better release date...it has memorial weekend and when that gets released...the only other movie during the summer that i would think it has to compete with is perhaps Harry Potter...and mabey Transformers...but even so...the Harry Potter movies tend to do better overseas so im not that worried about that...Spider-man on the other hand may have 2 weeks to itself but it won't be long b4 it gets knocked off the top spot w/ Shrek and Pirates trailing it's release...

 

[PirateLord89]

Interesting matchup. Both third films and such.

Spidey will lose though. People are tired of him by now and the movie doesn't look too good to me anyway. James franco's hammy performance being a riot is not a good indication to me for the film's quality.

Pirates 3 on the other hand has consistently shown to be a beast as the box office. i expect nothing different for the third really.

I agree!t:

 

[DACrowe]

But it is sandwiched in between Shrek 3 and Ocean's 13, both big movies cutting into its core audiences (children and teens). Spidey's got no competition before or after for two weeks, though.

 

[DACrowe]

P.S. It's a bad argument to say "audiences are tired of Spidey by now after 3 movies," because the same could be said about Captain Sparrow. I think neither is true. Albeit Pirates 2 was mediocre and SM2 was very good, that I think will be in people's minds but Pirates is fresher too though.

 

[PirateLord89]

i would hardly call oceans 13 big competition...especially 4 Pirates 3...

 

[PirateLord89]

P.S. It's a bad argument to say "audiences are tired of Spidey by now after 3 movies," because the same could be said about Captain Sparrow. I think neither is true. Albeit Pirates 2 was mediocre and SM2 was very good, that I think will be in people's minds but Pirates is fresher too though.

well...based on facts...it would seem that audiences interest in spider-man obviously has decreased based on b/o performance...SM2 made less than SM1...so less people went to go see it...it made less even w/ higher ticket prices...t: ...and POTC 2 made more (alot more)...than POTC 1...so that would prove that people's interest in that franchise in increasing...

 

[L0ngsh0t]

P.S. It's a bad argument to say "audiences are tired of Spidey by now after 3 movies," because the same could be said about Captain Sparrow. I think neither is true. Albeit Pirates 2 was mediocre and SM2 was very good, that I think will be in people's minds but Pirates is fresher too though.

While I think you are right, at the 300 packed showing i went to there was almost a standing ovartion for the last trailer for Spidey (albeit, and even bigger amount of applause for Grindhouse)

I think your argument is also a bit weak to, a few posts back you made the comment about people are finally starting to realize that DMC wasn't that good, and while there are a few people that think that, the majority would disagree with that...now i'm not saying everyone thinks its the best movie ever, but most people i have talked to about DMC think it is at least a good movie, and are interested in the 3rd

 

[Catman]

But it is sandwiched in between Shrek 3 and Ocean's 13, both big movies cutting into its core audiences (children and teens). Spidey's got no competition before or after for two weeks, though.

Basically what I said. Spidey has the edge cause it has two weeks to itself. Pirates has films affecting its box office.

 

[Tempest19]

*cough* Matrix 2 *cough*

- "bridge" film
- better box office than first, serious drop off in third
- third promised more action and delivered, but too close= people were not interested.

----------------------------

Also anyone thinking POTC3 will get the same or above box office as POTC2 is seriously kidding themselves. POTC2 summer had rare competition, especially from the 'blockbuster' genre.... this summer is PACKED with so many blockbusters that their all going to hurt themselves probably.

Even in the action and comedy categories:

I can almost guarantee Evan Almighty will whoop Talledega and every comedy last summer.

While Die Hard makes Miami Vice it's *****, "now you see this is how you make a REAL action movie! Yippie ki yay mother fcker!"

---------------------------------

Also, please note that I'm not saying POTC3 is going to flop or anything like that....

Rather: Spider-Man 3, POTC3, and Shrek 3 (yes Shrek 3) will all be running neck and neck most likely...

People underestimated Shrek 2, personally- I won't make that same mistake again because they might very well end up laughing at ALL of us.