Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[InCali]

Lets play a "worst case scenario" game.

What if the drop is huge for this next weekend? I think this movie should still be slightly higher than BvS domestically because there's no way it's legs are going to be that weak with the positive WOM and stellar reviews.

Call it at 375M just to be extra cautious?

Then you have AoU to compare it to overseas since the numbers are just shy. Lets say, again to be cautious, that this movie brings in 80% of what AoU brought in overseas. That's 756M right there, which I think would be a conservative number for this flick.

Right there you have over 1.1B locked in. The rest is gravy guys, don't sweat it!

I don't like your game.

My game is about 1.5B t:

EDIT: My original vote was 1.3-1.4B

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

So it looks like the revised number is 178-179. I hope this can crawl to 400 dom. I say crawl because there is a lot of competition coming soon. The first week of May has always been kind to Marvel so hopefully....yeah.

 

[Tony Stark]

So it looks like the revised number is 178-179. I hope this can crawl to 400 dom. I say crawl because there is a lot of competition coming soon. The first week of May has always been kind to Marvel so hopefully....yeah.

Um, do you mean crawl to 500M? This will easily pass 400M as it will likely have a higher multiplier than IM3 which made 409M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 12m12 minutes ago
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR earned est. 9.0M on Monday, China's 4-day total is now est. $105.3M

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 5m5 minutes ago
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR is now the 5th straight Disney release to gross >$100M in China after Ant-Man, Star Wars, Zootopia, & Jungle Book

 

[BatSpider]

Wow, I'm actually shocked. Thought this film would have easily gotten 195+ OW, but it barely edged out an awfully reviewed BvS. Go figure

 

[Iceman]

Wow, I'm actually shocked. Thought this film would have easily gotten 195+ OW, but it barely edged out an awfully reviewed BvS. Go figure

The reviews don't have that much of an impact on the opening weekend, especially opening day, with hype and advance sales. Word of mouth and reception kick in on the 2nd weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

It more than edged out BvS. The only think that keeps BvS close was the opening 81M. You look at Saturday and Sunday and BvS was awful. Even with the revised estimates CW had good holds on both of those days.

 

[JB33]

The low Sunday doesn't surprise me. Most moms don't exactly want to go see a Captain America movie on Mother's Day.

Ah well. With the opening weekend stuff behind us now, the discussion now turns to its legs, which should be great. I'll be doing my part by seeing it again tomorrow and probably one more time next weekend.

 

[Jordanstine]

Speaking of BvS, that movie is basically dead now. Only made $1 million this weekend. About $330 million will be the domestic cume.

 

[Logan0327]

came in lower than expected with 178 million instead of 180 million like projected according to Deadline

Sunday’s business turned out to be more female and family driven than expected, shaving some muscle off the opening of Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War, but keeping the threequel tough enough for the fifth best domestic opening all-time with $178M, ahead of Iron Man 3‘s $174.1M. “Still sensational,” exclaimed a non-Disney distribution chief. Disney was expecting $181.8M for Civil War, however the industry was expecting a slightly bigger weekend of $182.5M as of yesterday. This is according to competitive industry reports this morning. Disney will be providing their actual figures later today. Civil War was expected to reign in a $45.4M Sunday, down 26% from Saturday, but posted a $42.3M Sunday.

 

[JC00]

So it looks like the revised number is 178-179. I hope this can crawl to 400 dom. I say crawl because there is a lot of competition coming soon. The first week of May has always been kind to Marvel so hopefully....yeah.

BvS is at $330m dom right now. This will easily pass $400m

 

[InCali]

So it looks like the revised number is 178-179. I hope this can crawl to 400 dom. I say crawl because there is a lot of competition coming soon. The first week of May has always been kind to Marvel so hopefully....yeah.

It has almost 3 weeks (inc 2 weekends) with very little competition. It'll be fine.

 

[ciscostudent561]

how much BVS made

 

[JB33]

Man, I reduced my expectations at the last minute and I still felt we were going to see this make $500M domestic. I don't think that's happening. A $178M opening weekend with a decent 2.6 multiplier gives it a domestic total of $462.8M, just edging out Avengers: Age of Ultron.

 

[Ozbridge]

It's opened in the same ballpark as AoU worldwide and I think it can hold at least as well pretty much everywhere. AoU numbers worldwide should be in sight.

Last year AoU had a 201M OW OS (not including China) and 439M OS at the end of the 2nd weekend (also not including China). It made 156M OW in China.

In comparison CW had a 200M OW OS (not including China) and 398M OS at the end of the 2nd weekend (not including China), had 96M OW in China.

I think everything indicates that CW will perform less than AoU OS, especially China. I think it'll be lucky if it can make 900M total.

Speaking of BvS, that movie is basically dead now. Only made $1 million this weekend. About $330 million will be the domestic cume.

I'm not sure though, MoS (though it had better leg than BvS) still made 4.2M more after a 750k 7th weekend (3/4 of what BvS made last weekend). If BvS makes 4.2 x 4/3 = 5.6M in the rest of its run it can crawl pass 332M, just enough to get that 2X multiplier.

 

[InCali]

Any guesses on when CW passes the BvS DOM BO numbers? I say early next week. Ummmm.....Tuesday.

 

[JC00]

...

 

[InCali]

I think the poster was referring to OS only; not WW.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Um, do you mean crawl to 500M? This will easily pass 400M as it will likely have a higher multiplier than IM3 which made 409M.

See I don't think this makes 500 dom. It's gonna make less than Ultron dom and OS. I'm not sure about that multiplier.

 

[Erzengel]

I think the poster was referring to OS only; not WW.

900M OS would put it at 1.3B WW minimum? I'd take that.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Any guesses on when CW passes the BvS DOM BO numbers? I say early next week. Ummmm.....Tuesday.

Sounds about right.

 

[StormC]

This movie would have beat Jurassic World if Thor and Hulk were in it.

 

[spiderman2]

Last year AoU had a 201M OW OS (not including China) and 439M OS at the end of the 2nd weekend (also not including China). It made 156M OW in China.

In comparison CW had a 200M OW OS (not including China) and 398M OS at the end of the 2nd weekend (not including China), had 96M OW in China.

I think everything indicates that CW will perform less than AoU OS, especially China. I think it'll be lucky if it can make 900M total.

Well that first number is only 1m less, the 2nd weekend OS with out china is 41m less and the last number is 60m less but this should also have better legs. You are saying the movie is only going to make 900m WW? No way the movie is at about 700m already. Even if it has a crap multiple of 2 in USA that would get it up to 878m and that dosnt include what ever it has left OS. I think minimum this is a 1 billion movie.

 

[JC00]

I think the poster was referring to OS only; not WW.

Well my mistake. He/she didn't put the OS next the 900

 

[JOE]

425M DOM
775M OS

1.2M WW give or take 50M.