Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[brandeezy89]

Campea is blaming BvS' negative reviews for CW not hitting pass 200M smh and here we go

 

[InCali]

Campea is blaming BvS' negative reviews for CW not hitting pass 200M smh and here we go

It probably had some effect, but I doubt 20M worth. Let's see if X seems to be negatively affected (though we'll never know for sure).

EDIT: having 3 SH movies come out in a month and a half (EDIT: make that 2 months) "could" hurt BO I suppose.....

 

[spiderman2]

I think that by the time X and Alice hit the screens, CW will be pushing 400M.

I wonder if having those come out though could be the difference in this getting to 500m or being just short though.

 

[InCali]

I wonder if having those come out though could be the difference in this getting to 500m or being just short though.

I suppose it could, but having an Avatar-like corridor in the summer is unheard of. BvS had a really good placement. CW's is fine. Everybody has competition after a few weeks.

 

[JOE]

It's this simple:

With IM3's multiplier = 418M Dom

With AoU's multiplier = 427M Dom

With TWS's multiplier = 487M Dom

With Avenger's Multiplier = 536M Dom

My point is that 400M is in the bag. I would say 450M is probably in the bag, or close to it, and depending on the 2nd weekend hold it's got a shot at 500M. The competition this May is pretty weak until X-men comes out, compared to what AoU faced last year.

This, so much this.

 

[Logan0327]

this is what marvel gets without the god of thunder

 

[JOE]

Meh, Thor is the most expendable Avenger IMO.

 

[Ozbridge]

Numbers below are DOM BO by 3nd Thursday (just before 4th weekend)/ OW and DOM by 3rd Thursday/ Total DOM

TA 2.30 | 76%
IM3 2.00 | 85%
TWS 2.18 | 80%
AoU 2.00 | 83%

So right before Alice and XMA are released CW can make from 2X to 2.3X of OW, or 358M to 412M.

 

[Chesterfield]

this is what marvel gets without the god of thunder

I have to agree. If there's any Avenger to satisfy the clamouring death quota it's definitely Odinson.

 

[First Avenger]

Don't bash my Thor you guys! >_<

 

[Tymminator]

oops, ignore post.

 

[InCali]

Don't bash my Thor you guys! >_<

Amen to that. Thor is way too important (and awesome and cool and so on) to go offing. Even if you did, there are SO many ways he could come back.

 

[third3ye]

Plus Thor brings da ladies to the theaters

 

[InCali]

This movie would have beat Jurassic World if Thor and Hulk were in it.

And if they had been fighting together instead of against each other and if they had a really good villain (like Thanos) and maybe are joined by GotG and maybe Captain Marvel and......

Yeah. Prolly woulda.......

 

[Jordanstine]

Plus Thor brings da ladies to the theaters

Ladies prefer him unshaven.

Guys prefer him to wear his f*ing helmet already!

 

[Anita18]

Campea is blaming BvS' negative reviews for CW not hitting pass 200M smh and here we go

LOL, and they didn't see the glowing reviews for CW? Please.


Saw this point mentioned at another forum and it's good to discuss. What if the MCU has already hit audience saturation? TA was the biggest BO performer since it was the first time that many superheroes had been in the same movie together, and you didn't have to watch all that many movies to get caught up. (You didn't really have to watch any of the previous movies to "get it.") But as the MCU gets deeper and more complex, it's almost required that the audience watch more and more movies to know what the heck is going on. So it's essentially filtering out casual movie-goers, who don't watch every MCU film that comes out. As more characters get added, it might alienate the general public.

With that thinking, it isn't that surprising that CW basically matched AoU, despite the superior critical reviews. Whoever stuck around for AoU is gonna stick around for CW, and the only real increase for future MCU movies will be from inflation. CW did everything right and it still didn't break out the way people expected it to.

Wonder how Marvel execs are going to spin that for stakeholders. Might be that a sure-fire BO amount is "good enough" even if nothing else is ever going to break out like TA did. Just like the Harry Potter films never wavered much in the box office.

 

[InCali]

LOL, and they didn't see the glowing reviews for CW? Please.


Saw this point mentioned at another forum and it's good to discuss. What if the MCU has already hit audience saturation? TA was the biggest BO performer since it was the first time that many superheroes had been in the same movie together, and you didn't have to watch all that many movies to get caught up. (You didn't really have to watch any of the previous movies to "get it.") But as the MCU gets deeper and more complex, it's almost required that the audience watch more and more movies to know what the heck is going on. So it's essentially filtering out casual movie-goers, who don't watch every MCU film that comes out. As more characters get added, it might alienate the general public.

With that thinking, it isn't that surprising that CW basically matched AoU, despite the superior critical reviews. Whoever stuck around for AoU is gonna stick around for CW, and the only real increase for future MCU movies will be from inflation. CW did everything right and it still didn't break out the way people expected it to.

Wonder how Marvel execs are going to spin that for stakeholders. Might be that a sure-fire BO amount is "good enough" even if nothing else is ever going to break out like TA did. Just like the Harry Potter films never wavered much in the box office.

???? I don't think making hundreds of millions of dollars per movie will take much of a tough sell. Virtually all of the recent Marvel movies have been very, very profitable so they have a very good track record and a lot of credibility. They've shown time and time again that they know how to do this.

IW could be a huge breakout for Marvel. Time will tell. Feige in on record as saying that he's making stand alone movies so I don't think people will have to have seen a bunch of movies to understand the current one.

I, for one, don't see a problem.

 

[Kanon]

BoxOffice @BoxOffice

CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR opened with $179.14M this weekend. #CaptainAmerica #CivilWar

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/729751175575314438

 

[Iceman]

Round it up dudes!

 

[Silver Surfer]

Spin what? That this movie will be the highest grossing movie of the year? and if it comes second, it will only be to another Disney movie in Rogue One? I'm sure shareholders are furious at the fact this this will be the 3rd highest grossing Super hero movie of all time, and the highest Non-Avengers Super hero movie of all time, just furious.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I don't recall any direct reference that had to be known for anyone to "get" something in CW. Does it help if you watched them all? Of course, but I felt they did a good job of keeping this accessible for the GA that may not have seen everything.

 

[Anita18]

???? I don't think making hundreds of millions of dollars per movie will take much of a tough sell. Virtually all of the recent Marvel movies have been very, very profitable so they have a very good track record and a lot of credibility. They've shown time and time again that they know how to do this.

IW could be a huge breakout for Marvel. Time will tell. Feige in on record as saying that he's making stand alone movies so I don't think people will have to have seen a bunch of movies to understand the current one.

I, for one, don't see a problem.

Personally, I don't see a problem either (just wanted to bring up a talking point), but a lot of people were disappointed CW didn't go northward of $200 mil OW, even though that may be completely unrelated to anything Marvel can directly control.

Movies, like startups and Wall St, are a gamble. I come from the tech world, where many people are in it to be the next billion-dollar startup. "Good enough" is literally not good enough. Hopefully Hollywood is a tad more reasonable...

 

[third3ye]

In all honesty, Wall Street won't care about dom opening below $200m, since the $675m global thus far is an incredible number regardless. For Disney's earnings call tomorrow, all the focus is going to be on ESPN subscribers, as that's by far the biggest share of business for Disney. This film and overall studio performance will be a short mention at best. Look no further than BvS and Time Warner's last earnings call as proof - not one analyst asked anything about BvS disappointing results nor were concerns raised about WB's lower revenues than last year.

 

[Chesterfield]

This is a growing thing with some people; over hyping things. Others have pointed out that this movie was going to have a $220 million OW. Now, because it didn't make $200million some people regard it as a disappointment. Honestly, I think people will be happier abd enjoy themselves more if they took a more realistic approach to things. Personally, I think the OW numbers are great and I'm certain this film will cross the billion dollar mark but again people are estimating a $1.5 Billion total. I guess we'll have to wait and see but I think we should all be proud of the fact that the film is a critical and growing financial success.

 

[Iceman]

In all honesty, Wall Street won't care about dom opening below $200m, since the $675m global thus far is an incredible number regardless. For Disney's earnings call tomorrow, all the focus is going to be on ESPN subscribers, as that's by far the biggest share of business for Disney. This film and overall studio performance will be a short mention at best. Look no further than BvS and Time Warner's last earnings call as proof - not one analyst asked anything about BvS disappointing results nor were concerns raised about WB's lower revenues than last year.

Yes. There are all kinds of comments in CBM and videogame forums about share price moves and the effects on the company in question of certain projects failing/succeeding spectacularly, many of which are exaggerated or at least seem to ignore the size of the parent company. When a company makes over $50B in annual revenue the difference between one project making $1B and $1.5B is 1%. Would be totally different if we were talking Marvel Studios rather than Disney.