Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[spiderman2]

See I don't think this makes 500 dom. It's gonna make less than Ultron dom and OS. I'm not sure about that multiplier.

I think it will but the key is going to be at the end of the month when Alice and Xmen come out. I cant remember 2 realitivley big movies coming out on the same day. That weekend could end up having a really big drop. The movie is at about 180 right now lets say next weekend is a 50% drop so 90 and then weekend after again 50% so 45. That would get it up to 315 and then lets say because of Xmen and Alice it dropes a big 75%. That would be around 11-12. Then weekend after lets say it goes back to 50% drop that would be around 6. So that would put it at around 333 after weekend 5 and most movies have made around 90% of there boxoffice after weekend 5. So it would have about 10% left to had to the 333 but you also have what ever it makes during those week days with that being just weekend dropes I am talking about.

 

[spiderman2]

So a few questions I have. What would be a good number for its first Monday today? Second what time should we get some sort on Monday numbers?

 

[Iceman]

Last year AoU had a 201M OW OS (not including China) and 439M OS at the end of the 2nd weekend (also not including China). It made 156M OW in China.

In comparison CW had a 200M OW OS (not including China) and 398M OS at the end of the 2nd weekend (not including China), had 96M OW in China.

I think everything indicates that CW will perform less than AoU OS, especially China. I think it'll be lucky if it can make 900M total.

Oh that China figure is quite a way down on AoU.

 

[KangConquers]

Never mind.

 

[Iceman]

Well that first number is only 1m less, the 2nd weekend OS with out china is 41m less and the last number is 60m less but this should also have better legs. You are saying the movie is only going to make 900m WW? No way the movie is at about 700m already. Even if it has a crap multiple of 2 in USA that would get it up to 878m and that dosnt include what ever it has left OS. I think minimum this is a 1 billion movie.

He means 900m OS (check the sentence before).

 

[spiderman2]

I think worst this has a 2.5 multiple to get to around 450m. Best 3 to get to around 540m. I am going to say it does in the middle to get to around 495. Before the movie came out I had it at 600m lol. I am going to say it does around 900 to 1 billion OS. So I am going to say it ends at 1.35-1.495 billion WW.

 

[spiderman2]

He means 900m OS (check the sentence before).

Oh I didn't see any thing about OS.

 

[KangConquers]

I think it will but the key is going to be at the end of the month when Alice and Xmen come out. I cant remember 2 realitivley big movies coming out on the same day. That weekend could end up having a really big drop. The movie is at about 180 right now lets say next weekend is a 50% drop so 90 and then weekend after again 50% so 45. That would get it up to 315 and then lets say because of Xmen and Alice it dropes a big 75%. That would be around 11-12. Then weekend after lets say it goes back to 50% drop that would be around 6. So that would put it at around 333 after weekend 5 and most movies have made around 90% of there boxoffice after weekend 5. So it would have about 10% left to had to the 333 but you also have what ever it makes during those week days with that being just weekend dropes I am talking about.

Your math doesn't account for week day grosses.

 

[AvengerPA]

What were the second week holds for the markets it opened in last week?

 

[Tony Stark]

See I don't think this makes 500 dom. It's gonna make less than Ultron dom and OS. I'm not sure about that multiplier.

It's this simple:

With IM3's multiplier = 418M Dom

With AoU's multiplier = 427M Dom

With TWS's multiplier = 487M Dom

With Avenger's Multiplier = 536M Dom

My point is that 400M is in the bag. I would say 450M is probably in the bag, or close to it, and depending on the 2nd weekend hold it's got a shot at 500M. The competition this May is pretty weak until X-men comes out, compared to what AoU faced last year.

 

[spiderman2]

Your math doesn't account for week day grosses.

I said plus what ever it makes during week days in like the last sentences or two and I don't really know like how much money movies make during the week compared to the weekends. So that is why I didn't really try to say how much it would make during the week days.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So a few questions I have. What would be a good number for its first Monday today? Second what time should we get some sort on Monday numbers?

Official Monday numbers should be out late morning/early afternoon tomorrow depending on your time zone. We may get some unofficial figures leaked over at bot before then, tho.

As for a good number, looking at other May Marvel releases the first Monday drop ranges from -67% (Avengers) to -74% (AoU). So Monday ought to be someplace around $10.7 million to $13.9 million. Obviously the higher the better.

 

[spiderman2]

It's this simple:

With IM3's multiplier = 418M Dom

With AoU's multiplier = 427M Dom

With TWS's multiplier = 487M Dom

With Avenger's Multiplier = 536M Dom

My point is that 400M is in the bag. I would say 450M is probably in the bag, or close to it, and depending on the 2nd weekend hold it's got a shot at 500M. The competition this May is pretty weak until X-men comes out, compared to what AoU faced last year.

I don't remember what kind of competition did AOU face last year? Also this movie is being recived better so I think it will have better legs then AOU at the same time though I cant remember 2 relitivly big movies coming out on the same day before like with Xmen and Alice this year so I wonder how big of a drop will it have that weekend? Also what kind of competition did TWS face the year it came out? I ask because I think it could have similarly legs to that considering its reviews are similarly good.

What were the second week holds for the markets it opened in last week?

That is what I was wondering

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't remember what kind of competition did AOU face last year? Also this movie is being recived better so I think it will have better legs then AOU at the same time though I cant remember 2 relitivly big movies coming out on the same day before like with Xmen and Alice this year so I wonder how big of a drop will it have that weekend? Also what kind of competition did TWS face the year it came out? I ask because I think it could have similarly legs to that considering its reviews are similarly good.



That is what I was wondering

CW having 3 weeks with pretty much nothing is huge for May. Avengers was the first film in over 10 years to be at no 1 for three weeks in May.

Age of Ultron faced Mad Max and Pitch Perfect 2, where it dropped to no 3 in it's 3rd week and was 5th over Memorial Day weekend.

 

[spiderman2]

Official Monday numbers should be out late morning/early afternoon tomorrow depending on your time zone. We may get some unofficial figures leaked over at bot before then, tho.

As for a good number, looking at other May Marvel releases the first Monday drop ranges from -67% (Avengers) to -74% (AoU). So Monday ought to be someplace around $10.7 million to $13.9 million. Obviously the higher the better.

Oh ok yeah I no official numbers tend to not come out in till the next day but I was wondering when we might get some guess numbers for Monday. So you say around 10.7 to 13.9m would be a good first Monday. Do you know in comparison how much did star wars make its first Monday? I ask because I know it did crazy numbers.

 

[spiderman2]

CW having 3 weeks with pretty much nothing is huge for May. Avengers was the first film in over 10 years to be at no 1 for three weeks in May.

Age of Ultron faced Mad Max and Pitch Perfect 2, where it dropped to no 3 in it's 3rd week and was 5th over Memorial Day weekend.

Oh wow didn't know about the 10 year thing in may. While I would say pitch perfect is not has big of a movie has Xmen and Alice though and while Mad Max got amazing reviews it didn't kill at the boxoffice has it only made around 378 WW. What about TWS? It came out in April right?

 

[Erzengel]

AOU had no competition until it's 3rd weekend when Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max came out.

The competition for CW this year at the same time will be Angry Birds and Neighbors 2. Even a $60M weekend may be able to surpass CW, which could be do $45-$50M that week.

 

[JB33]

Oh ok yeah I no official numbers tend to not come out in till the next day but I was wondering when we might get some guess numbers for Monday. So you say around 10.7 to 13.9m would be a good first Monday. Do you know in comparison how much did star wars make its first Monday? I ask because I know it did crazy numbers.

The Force Awakens made $40.1M on its first Monday. Nothing else comes close. Hell, its 2nd Monday is right behind at 2nd all time in terms of highest Monday gross with $31.4M.

 

[spiderman2]

The Force Awakens made $40.1M on its first Monday. Nothing else comes close. Hell, its 2nd Monday is right behind at 2nd all time in terms of highest Monday gross with $31.4M.

lol its first few weeks numbers were stupid I mean its got the OW record by like 40 million. Its second weekend is higher then all but like 4 movies second weekends.

 

[gerrym51]

I read including marketing(250 plus 180) this cost 430 million.

using 50 percent rule it will need at least 900 million to break even.

However the problem with China-although it adds many millions-profits from china are closer to 30 percent of ticket sales.

convoluted china system

 

[JB33]

lol its first few weeks numbers were stupid I mean its got the OW record by like 40 million. Its second weekend is higher then all but like 4 movies second weekends.

It was definitely insane! Nothing is coming close to that movie, at least in terms of domestic box office, for a very long time.

 

[spiderman2]

I read including marketing(250 plus 180) this cost 430 million.

using 50 percent rule it will need at least 900 million to break even.

However the problem with China-although it adds many millions-profits from china are closer to 30 percent of ticket sales.

convoluted china system

I have heard like a million different things when it comes to this kind of stuff. I have heard theaters only get around 15-20% and that is why they charge so much for food, drink. I have also heard 50%. When it comes to breaking even I have heard 3 times its budget so say 750 for a movie like this. I have also heard 2.5 times. I don't think we really know and if you do like the 50% thing for a movie like amazing spider man 2 it would have lost money yet it ended up making like 16 million. Another example for BVS I have heard any where between 800-900 million to break even. I would think this movie would be around the same.

 

[InCali]

Well my mistake. He/she didn't put the OS next the 900

True, but all the other references were to OS. Hey, it's EASY to misunderstand stuff using this media. Typos and grammatical mistakes are abundant and we don't always read very carefully.

 

[InCali]

AOU had no competition until it's 3rd weekend when Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max came out.

The competition for CW this year at the same time will be Angry Birds and Neighbors 2. Even a $60M weekend may be able to surpass CW, which could be do $45-$50M that week.

Boss wouldn't have beaten it's BO numbers.....

 

[InCali]

I think it will but the key is going to be at the end of the month when Alice and Xmen come out. I cant remember 2 realitivley big movies coming out on the same day. That weekend could end up having a really big drop. The movie is at about 180 right now lets say next weekend is a 50% drop so 90 and then weekend after again 50% so 45. That would get it up to 315 and then lets say because of Xmen and Alice it dropes a big 75%. That would be around 11-12. Then weekend after lets say it goes back to 50% drop that would be around 6. So that would put it at around 333 after weekend 5 and most movies have made around 90% of there boxoffice after weekend 5. So it would have about 10% left to had to the 333 but you also have what ever it makes during those week days with that being just weekend dropes I am talking about.

I think that by the time X and Alice hit the screens, CW will be pushing 400M.