Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I honestly don't see this as a disappointment. Highest debut of the year, gonna atleast make a billion, good critical and fan praise. 200mill OW is very hard. I think people just appreciate what the Avengers was able to do. That was the first team up movie so the novelty factor was there. As long as Marvel continues to make good movies and not bombs, people will be in the seats. 178 is an amazing number.

 

[Tony Stark]

Oh wow didn't know about the 10 year thing in may. While I would say pitch perfect is not has big of a movie has Xmen and Alice though and while Mad Max got amazing reviews it didn't kill at the boxoffice has it only made around 378 WW. What about TWS? It came out in April right?

You have to look at what they did that weekend not total box office. PP2 was very front loaded, but came in with 69M opening, that's huge, and MM a strong 45.5.

XMA will likely be no 1 that weekend, I think Alice will flop. Despite the first film doing well, it's a sequel no one asked for.

Same can be said for Neighbors 2. Angry Birds if it gets good reviews could do well and threaten for the no. 1 slot.

 

[InCali]

I honestly don't see this as a disappointment. Highest debut of the year, gonna atleast make a billion, good critical and fan praise. 200mill OW is very hard. I think people just appreciate what the Avengers was able to do. That was the first team up movie so the novelty factor was there. As long as Marvel continues to make good movies and not bombs, people will be in the seats. 178 is an amazing number.

My take on the BvS thread was that I rather liked BvS, but obviously others were much more critical than I was. They came up short in both the revenue department, with the critics, AND with the general audience (though this has a correlation to revenue). So, what happened there was that 100s of millions of dollars were left on the table AND it didn't help set up JL (which, to me, is even a bigger problem). CW is clearly going to make a LOT of money AND it's helping the Marvel brand and new movies (BP and AM being prime examples) because it was a success with both the audience and critics.

 

[JB33]

Captain America: Civil War - current worldwide gross

Domestic: $179,139,142
Foreign: $494,000,000

Worldwide: $673,139,142

 

[johnboy3434]

New CW projections based on the weekend actuals.

Monday: $14.4M (-66.1%)
Tuesday: $13.2M (-8.09%)
Wednesday: $10.6M (-19.8%)
Thursday: $9.59M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $227M

Friday: $24.4M (+154%)
Saturday: $38.4M (+57.7%)
Sunday: $26.3M (-31.6%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $89.1M (-50.3%)

PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC TOTAL: $542M (3.03x)

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I'm a Marvel fanboy so I always over-hype it in my own head but I also realize the numbers we did up getting are still fantastic. So win/win as far as I'm concerned.

 

[InCali]

I'm a Marvel fanboy so I always over-hype it in my own head but I also realize the numbers we did up getting are still fantastic. So win/win as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah. I get it. I love to see something just blow the doors off something (unless they are real doors.....). We all like the extraordinary and root for it to happen. Believe me, Marvel is not the LEAST bit upset with these numbers and neither should we be. Great should be, and is, just fine.

 

[JB33]

I'm a Marvel fanboy so I always over-hype it in my own head but I also realize the numbers we did up getting are still fantastic. So win/win as far as I'm concerned.

Definitely. It's still in the upper echelon of films as far as opening weekends go.

-5th biggest opening weekend of all time
-5th biggest Saturday gross of all time
-8th biggest Friday gross of all time
-8th biggest Sunday gross of all time

Call me crazy, but I'm actually happy it didn't break records because I'd rather record breaking be something special rather than a normal occurrence. We still get to enjoy the anticipation of a different movie breaking the $200M opening weekend barrier, while at the same time this movie was still a huge hit!

 

[JB33]

OT: I'm even more impressed at that 4th weekend gross for The Jungle Book ($24,488,436). It's the 10th biggest 4th weekend of all time and while that's mighty impressive to begin with, it's amazing that it accomplished this going up against the opening weekend of Civil War. I mean, I thought it would finally experience a huge drop this weekend, but nope, only 44%.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

Spin what? That this movie will be the highest grossing movie of the year? and if it comes second, it will only be to another Disney movie in Rogue One? I'm sure shareholders are furious at the fact this this will be the 3rd highest grossing Super hero movie of all time, and the highest Non-Avengers Super hero movie of all time, just furious.

But I thought that:

This movie will gross what Ultron should have, all that "TA1 was lightening In a bottle" BS was just that, BS.

 

[Stark Bauer]

New CW projections based on the weekend actuals.

Monday: $14.4M (-66.1%)
Tuesday: $13.2M (-8.09%)
Wednesday: $10.6M (-19.8%)
Thursday: $9.59M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $227M

Friday: $24.4M (+154%)
Saturday: $38.4M (+57.7%)
Sunday: $26.3M (-31.6%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $89.1M (-50.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $537M (3x)

I second your projected dom total. I think CW tops AoU and it would be a huge accomplishment for it to also surpass TDK. If it proves to have long legs and beat TA, that would surprise me, but at the same time, CW is Spider-Man plus the Avengers, essentially. I also think CW was better than both Avengers films.

$537 M sounds like a reasonable prediction.

 

[Silver Surfer]

But I thought that:

Fanboyisms gets the best of you sometimes, just wait till Infinity War nears, but this could end up beating Ultron so hey...

 

[Ozbridge]

Considering the early reviews of XMA is quite mixed/ slightly negative I think XMA won't bite into CW's BO too much. Alice isn't a CBM so the competition between CW and Alice won't be as harsh as CW and XMA (would have been if XMA were good).

Btw I'm already dreading all the "Disney pay critics" threads over IMDB (I occasionally post there)

 

[Chesterfield]

Not surprised XMA is getting mixed/negative reviews. It looks like a bloated mess with too much Jennifer Lawrence.

 

[StormC]

Damn, XMA isn't fairing too well? That's too bad. I didn't have high hopes for it, but I thought maybe for Singer it would pull through.

Back to this movie, if it doesn't beat IM3 I have to wonder if Disney thinks it would have been better to make a less expensive Cap 3 that doesn't have a dozen heroes (one of them costing 40 million) that could still make 800-900 million or so.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

OT: I'm even more impressed at that 4th weekend gross for The Jungle Book ($24,488,436). It's the 10th biggest 4th weekend of all time and while that's mighty impressive to begin with, it's amazing that it accomplished this going up against the opening weekend of Civil War. I mean, I thought it would finally experience a huge drop this weekend, but nope, only 44%.

Yup, it's on an amazing run. Should pass $300 million domestic and $800 million WW next weekend. Might beat BvS by the end of its run, and anyone who predicted that in January should go buy lotto tix.

Fun fact: between JB, CW and Zootopia, Disney accounted for 88% of the weekend's domestic theatrical haul. That's just nuts.

 

[third3ye]

Back to this movie, if it doesn't beat IM3 I have to wonder if Disney thinks it would have been better to make a less expensive Cap 3 that doesn't have a dozen heroes (one of them costing 40 million) that could still make 800-900 million or so.

First, I think this is still gonna beat IM3's $1.2b, as $1.3-1.4b is still well within reach. Figure around $500m DOM and $900m OS, somewhere in that range. $1.5b is an outlier result that shouldn't be dismissed either.

Second, Marvel already looks committed for Phase 3 to introduce multiple characters in solo films, with RDJ in Spider-Man 2017 and Hulk joining Thor 3. They don't have another ensemble story lined up thus far except for Avengers IW. Realistically the 'buddy' approach is probably a lot more feasible for solo films going into Phase 4, but if it's a property they firmly believe in (i.e. Cap, IM), I wouldn't be surprised to see another non-Avenger ensemble film with big budget in the near future.

 

[StormC]

Yeah, ever since I saw the movie (and OW figures) 1.3 billion seems like a safe bet, but the worst case scenario is still worth talking about.

I'll be really curious if Homecoming can crack a billion with just Spidey and RDJ. Will be a good test for RDJ's star power.

 

[third3ye]

As a followup, if we run the numbers for CW at $1.2b WWBO cume vs a lower budget Cap 3 at $800m, you're still more profitable with the ensemble film despite the higher budget ($250m production, $180 P&A). I'm just using placeholder estimates here - 50% theater rentals, and $180m production & $130m P&A for cheaper Cap film. In fact, CW nearly doubles the profitability vs the cheaper Cap film. If the cheaper Cap film does $900m, then it's much closer, but obviously a larger topline number (particularly one that's over a billion) sounds a lot more attractive to a studio for the same level of profits. In this industry, not every production P&L can look like Deadpool's.

 

[Raiden]

I'm a bit disappointed that the actual figure is 179 mil, but unlike BVS this movie won't be front-loaded, and the great reviews combining with the fantastic Cinemascore means that it has great WOM and sturdy legs for weeks to come. I doubt even XMA will have too big an impact against CW. The second week will be very telling where this movie will end up in the box office, though.

 

[grieven]

What are the chances that CW will be the top grossing movie domestically and worldwide for 2016?

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Any predictions for the monday number result tonight? I hope it lands between 11 & 12 milli. I want this movie to atleast get to 400 dom.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What are the chances that CW will be the top grossing movie domestically and worldwide for 2016?

It's definitely a contender. Conventional wisdom right now is that it wins the summer.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...weekend-box-office-summer-records-1201750394/

 

[regnak]

Damn, XMA isn't fairing too well? That's too bad. I didn't have high hopes for it, but I thought maybe for Singer it would pull through.

Back to this movie, if it doesn't beat IM3 I have to wonder if Disney thinks it would have been better to make a less expensive Cap 3 that doesn't have a dozen heroes (one of them costing 40 million) that could still make 800-900 million or so.

One thing to remember is that the dollar has been going up for years. That means the exchange rates have been getting worse and studio get less $ back from overseas for the same tickets sold. So to surpass IM3 in overseas box office would require sellng substantially more tickets than it did.


IOW IM4 would have had an excellent chance of making less than IM3 just because of the stronger dollar.

 

[Iceman]

I'd be surprised if it wasn't but we'll have more of a clue when we see more of Rogue One. They are definitely going to have to show something awesome to make up for that boring teaser.