Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[kedrell]

I'm not just talking about The Force Awakens. I'm going all the way back to the original trilogy. You can't compare Star Wars to Marvel because the originals are much older films. Look at the all time highest grossing films adjusted for inflation. Star Wars is everywhere. A New Hope, The Force Awakens, The Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi and The Phantom Menace are 2nd, 11th, 13th, 16th and 18th all time respectively. The Avengers is the highest Marvel film at 29th on the list. Then comes Revenge of the Sith at 63rd, and then Avengers: Age of Ultron is just inches ahead of Attack of the Clones after that (90th and 91st on the list).

There's a reason why people came out in droves for Episode VII. Star Wars is a cinematic tradition. Even Marvel doesn't reach every single demographic the way Star Wars does. This is coming from an enormous Marvel fan by the way.

Adjusted for inflation is never a very good metric to use. You simply can't accurately compare films from today with those of 30, 40, 50 or more years ago. It just doesn't work. But I can compare them from this century. And SW still hasn't taken on all comers yet. Maybe it will but that remains to the future to determine. As for me, I'm rooting for Marvel in that match-up all the way as I was never into outer-space stuff whether it be Star Wars or Star Trek or Battlestar Galactica. When it comes to Lucasfilm IP's I was always more of an Indiana Jones guy.

 

[JB33]

Adjusted for inflation is never a very good metric to use. You simply can't accurately compare films from today with those of 30, 40, 50 or more years ago. It just doesn't work. But I can compare them from this century. And SW still hasn't taken on all comers yet. Maybe it will but that remains to the future to determine. As for me, I'm rooting for Marvel in that match-up all the way as I was never into outer-space stuff whether it be Star Wars or Star Trek or Battlestar Galactica. When it comes to Lucasfilm IP's I was always more of an Indiana Jones guy.

Fair enough.

For the record, I do agree with the notion that the following Star Wars films won't beat The Force Awakens. It's just logical that the hype and nostalgia factor won't be there. Well it'll be there of course, but not to that degree.

 

[First Avenger]

So Disney is paying lots of people to go see the movie.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Voy a traducirlo para usted , pero no voy a verlo hasta Cinco de Mayo

It's more like "I would", but my Spanish kinda sucks; as would my translation.

So, dude, don't neglect the impact of the SoCal audience on the DOM BO #s or else I'm gonna have to send some of my boys to the swamp and rough you up. Know what I'm sayin' eh?

You'll have to get through all the FL swamp cats first (aka gators). t:

 

[Iceman]

TFA was a freak of nature. Every SW film won't perform like it & I don't see any other film eclipsing what its done for quite some time. Especially in terms of grossing nearly a billion domestically alone.

But anyway, given the start CW is off to & how its international opening numbers are barely trailing behind AoU, I think this has every chance to do $1.3-$1.4 building. Everything is there: stellar reviews, a well sculpted movie (from what I can ascertain thus far without actually seeing it), massive hype met with everything a fanboy could love....

No way for CW to lose. It's already won.

There will be repeated viewings of CW more than AOU because of that airport fight scenes so i would expect it to be closer to Avengers takings at the least.

Yeah, if it were AoU quality with AoU's overseas start then it would likely do AoUish numbers overseas. But this is likely to be received a bit better so will hopefully surpass that.

 

[Filmfan93]

Since it is already on $200 million, how much money WW total do you think it will already have made by Friday, when domestic OW numbers start hitting? And what numbers WW are we likely to have by the end of the OW? I say around $600-700 million.

 

[InCali]

You'll have to get through all the FL swamp cats first (aka gators). t:

Man....THOSE things CREEP ME OUT. I was in Orlando for a (gasp) union convention several years ago and we went to this place called Gatorland or something like that. Anyway, the doorway has this big open gator mouth that you have to walk through to get in. It's beyond cheesy so, of course, I loved it. When you get in, you can go out on these decks and look at the gators up close. Whoa.....look at their eyes and you see......NOTHING. Just dark, soulless eyes. Frelling chilling. I wouldn't get near one of those things for anything in the world.

Oh yeah....CW. I think it's likely to do between AoU and Avenger numbers. Maybe best TA and "maybe" JW. I think it'll do right around 1B OS.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

I don't want to expect Avengers numbers just yet, 2nd weekend numbers are the most telling in these kind of speculations, then we would have a better idea of the full potential of the film.

 

[InCali]

I don't want to expect Avengers numbers just yet, 2nd weekend numbers are the most telling in these kind of speculations, then we would have a better idea of the full potential of the film.

We haven't even gotten the 1st weekend's numbers. LOL. Those are kind of important too.....

 

[johnboy3434]

Adjusted for inflation is never a very good metric to use.

Perhaps, but it's still better than comparing the unadjusted totals. The obvious solution is not to compare them at all, but that simply isn't an option.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Just to start off what, at least here in the US, will be the loooooongest week ever, here's this morning's movietickets.com tracking of tickets sold in the last 24 hours:

The Jungle Book: 32%
Civil War: 28%
Zootopia: 4%
Mother's Day: 4%
Keanu: 4%

I don't think it will take long for CW to jump into the No.1 spot.

 

[marshal99]

Disney bumping disney movies off the top. Either way , disney still wins.

 

[Endeavor]

Has anyone found the final numbers for the international weekend BO? The 200.2 million amount was posted early Sunday, so it doesn't include the actual Sunday sales, just projected.

 

[TalismanRing]

Has anyone found the final numbers for the international weekend BO? The 200.2 million amount was posted early Sunday, so it doesn't include the actual Sunday sales, just projected.

Actuals won't come until later (just like Domestic actual) in the day but it will only be a couple million difference more or less.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Disney bumping disney movies off the top. Either way , disney still wins.

And they have third place atm, too. 2015 was Universal's year, now 2016 looks like it will belong to The Mouse.

 

[InCali]

Perhaps, but it's still better than comparing the unadjusted totals. The obvious solution is not to compare them at all, but that simply isn't an option.

From a statistical perspective, it really isn't better and is just confusing apples and oranges. From a personal perspective, do whatever you want.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Has anyone found the final numbers for the international weekend BO? The 200.2 million amount was posted early Sunday, so it doesn't include the actual Sunday sales, just projected.

Looks like it was bumped up a tiny bit to $200.4 million.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...tional-box-office-weekend-results-1201747374/

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Man....THOSE things CREEP ME OUT. I was in Orlando for a (gasp) union convention several years ago and we went to this place called Gatorland or something like that. Anyway, the doorway has this big open gator mouth that you have to walk through to get in. It's beyond cheesy so, of course, I loved it. When you get in, you can go out on these decks and look at the gators up close. Whoa.....look at their eyes and you see......NOTHING. Just dark, soulless eyes. Frelling chilling. I wouldn't get near one of those things for anything in the world.

Oh yeah....CW. I think it's likely to do between AoU and Avenger numbers. Maybe best TA and "maybe" JW. I think it'll do right around 1B OS.

Haha I know Gatorland. The gators really aren't all that aggressive, it's those Australian crocodiles you gotta watch out for, those bastards are feisty and mean as hell.

I won't be surprised if CW exceeds they already crazy projections this weekend. I know me seeing it 3 times this weekend with as many folks as I can rope into it will help haha.

 

[Jordanstine]

Good thing is, it's doing on par or slightly better than AOU overseas, which means it could hit $900 million just overseas, not even counting what it's going to make over in the US.

 

[third3ye]

I think $900m OS is the worst case scenario. It's opening 5% behind AoU in territories thus far, but with much stronger critical performance and presumably WOM, I would think this would have much stronger legs than AoU across the globe. This has a good chance of breaking $1b OS, but really comes down to how well it plays in China.

 

[Jordanstine]

Looks like it was bumped up a tiny bit to $200.4 million.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...tional-box-office-weekend-results-1201747374/

Reading the article CW is doing well and breaking some records in Asia and South America.

However it's doing below AOU and sometimes even below IM3 in Europe... hmm why is that?

 

[Iceman]

Good thing is, it's doing on par or slightly better than AOU overseas, which means it could hit $900 million just overseas, not even counting what it's going to make over in the US.

I think $900m OS is the worst case scenario. It's opening 5% behind AoU in territories thus far, but with much stronger critical performance and presumably WOM, I would think this would have much stronger legs than AoU across the globe. This has a good chance of breaking $1b OS, but really comes down to how well it plays in China.

Yeah, it should do AoU numbers even it has an only AoU-level reception overseas. With this start I think it will do better.

 

[Iceman]

Reading the article CW is doing well and breaking some records in Asia and South America.

However it's doing below AOU and sometimes even below IM3 in Europe... hmm why is that?

This is just an opinion obviously, but I think in the non-English speaking countries the spectacle is most important as part of the performance is lost in the translation/dub. And in Europe if this was Avengers: Civil War I think that would give it the edge over being a Cap film. There's no reason for Cap 3 without all these characters to be challenging Avengers and Iron Man 3, more like a good 50% or so improvement over TWS to go for a billion. And in some countries like Germany they are scared even to use the name Captain America (it's called The First Avenger: Civil War there). Plus Europe is a much more mature market so there is not that much growth unlike the rising developing countries where every sequel to a film that is of similar quality and reception will do bigger numbers just due to larger capacity every year.

 

[InCali]

Haha I know Gatorland. The gators really aren't all that aggressive, it's those Australian crocodiles you gotta watch out for, those bastards are feisty and mean as hell.

I won't be surprised if CW exceeds they already crazy projections this weekend. I know me seeing it 3 times this weekend with as many folks as I can rope into it will help haha.

If it can do 200M, that's just going to be wild. I hope so. I'm getting off work early so I can go see it.

BTW I don't care if they are aggressive or not. Those eyes are completely without any feeling at all. AlligatorMan would scare the hell out of me. LOL.

 

[InCali]

I think $900m OS is the worst case scenario. It's opening 5% behind AoU in territories thus far, but with much stronger critical performance and presumably WOM, I would think this would have much stronger legs than AoU across the globe. This has a good chance of breaking $1b OS, but really comes down to how well it plays in China.

AoU did, what, about 200M in China as I recall. If CW gets in those heady waters, I think 1B is a real possibility. Add a big DOM BO and you most definitely have Avengers type numbers.