Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mike5575]

What! Infinity War is cancelled?! What did I miss??

 

[johnboy3434]

The Friday estimate is $75,253,000, including $25 million from Thursday night. My new predictions based on these numbers...

Saturday: $56M (-25.6%)
Sunday: $43.4M (-22.5%)
OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $175M

Monday: $14.7M (-66.1%)
Tuesday: $13.5M (-8.09%)
Wednesday: $10.8M (-19.8%)
Thursday: $9.8M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $223M

PROJECTED TOTAL DOMESTIC: $530M (3.04x)

 

[FunkMiller]

I'll be shocked if Civil War only out does BvS by a measly 9 or 10 million OW, but it looks like it could happen.

 

[warcam]

I'll be shocked if Civil War only out does BvS by a measly 9 or 10 million OW, but it looks like it could happen.

I'll bet it won't drop anywhere close to 70% next weekend, though.

 

[johnboy3434]

I'll bet it won't drop anywhere close to 70% next weekend, though.

Yeah, right now I'm estimating a 49.9% weekend-to-weekend drop.

 

[marcvader]

Definitely will be a low drop next weekend.

 

[Coolkid]

Even though $180 million is great opening, does it not have a chance to hit $200 million anymore...???

 

[Ozbridge]

The Friday estimate is $75,253,000, including $25 million from Thursday night. My new predictions based on these numbers...

Saturday: $56M (-25.6%)
Sunday: $43.4M (-22.5%)
OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $175M

I used to laugh at BvS for being beaten by The Boss at its 3rd weekend but now I think there's a chance CW is also beaten by Neighbors 2 at its 3rd weekend. If we go by this number and use a fairly standard 50% drop after each weekend then 3rd weekend is 44M. The first Neighbors movie had 49M OW (though it also had quite positive reviews, which the new one doesn't).

 

[Wockanda]

I used to laugh at BvS for being beaten by The Boss at its 3rd weekend but now I think there's a chance CW is also beaten by Neighbors 2 at its 3rd weekend. If we go by this number and use a fairly standard 50% drop after each weekend then 3rd weekend is 44M. The first Neighbors movie had 49M OW (though it also had quite positive reviews, which the new one doesn't).

I'd be more worried about Angry Birds.

 

[FunkMiller]

I'll bet it won't drop anywhere close to 70% next weekend, though.

Very, very doubtful. Though expectations for total BO might be lowered somewhat now. I'm staying with 1.3 bil.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Even though $180 million is great opening, does it not have a chance to hit $200 million anymore...???

It would need some crazy holds on Saturday and Sunday, so I'd say no.

 

[samsnee]

A little disappointed it won't hit $200M but I think wom will be good.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Does it have a chance to hit a billion?

 

[marcvader]

A little disappointed it won't hit $200M but I think wom will be good.

Will be? It is.

 

[JC00]

Does it have a chance to hit a billion?

It's already at $366m and Saturday and Sunday WW haven't even happened yet and WOM has been arguably the best out of all the MCU.

 

[Coolkid]

It would need some crazy holds on Saturday and Sunday, so I'd say no.

Oh... Even with the mixed word of mouth AoU made 191M... So I thought 200M would be a cake walk for Civil War with the teriffic word of mouth it receives... Still it's a great opening... I believe it'll make 180M at least...!!!

 

[ImSGirl95]

Ok ... is it sure that it will make only 180 million?

Does the movie have any serious competition? I mean, the movie has some serious hype and wom. The reviews have been perfect.

 

[Zant]

I used to laugh at BvS for being beaten by The Boss at its 3rd weekend but now I think there's a chance CW is also beaten by Neighbors 2 at its 3rd weekend. If we go by this number and use a fairly standard 50% drop after each weekend then 3rd weekend is 44M. The first Neighbors movie had 49M OW (though it also had quite positive reviews, which the new one doesn't).

Nah. Neighbors 2 will make less than the first opening weekend. I expect Cap 3 to be number 1 on its 3rd weekend. Should have made over a billion by then.

 

[Pokkle]

It's already at $366m and Saturday and Sunday WW haven't even happened yet and WOM has been arguably the best out of all the MCU.

And it is doing well in China.
@ChinaBoxOffice: CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR earned est. $38.5M on Saturday, 2nd biggest day ever for import. 2-day total is $68.9M

 

[Sithborg]

And it is doing well in China.
@ChinaBoxOffice: CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR earned est. $38.5M on Saturday, 2nd biggest day ever for import. 2-day total is $68.9M

Aka 2/3s of BvS's run. The movie is doing fine. Unless it craters, which is highly unlikel, it should be able to pass $400 million domestic.

 

[JC00]

Ok ... is it sure that it will make only 180 million?

Does the movie have any serious competition? I mean, the movie has some serious hype and wom. The reviews have been perfect.

Oh i could definitely see it being over $180m and being around $185m


$75m- Friday
$65m- Saturday (-13% IM3 only had a 9.6% drop off from Fri to Sat)
$45m- Sunday (-30% IM3 also had a 30% Sat to Sun drop)

 

[spiderman2]

The theory has been tossed around that social media has an instant WOM effect not seen just ten years ago. This can really screw with the internal weekend multiple, as films that overachieve their already high predictions tend to have fantastic buzz. I think a lot of predictions were for a higher Friday and when Civil War didn't reach that, even good legs weren't enough to cross $200M.

I think the industry projections based off of the Friday results are pretty reasonable. They're assuming a ~2.4 internal multiple (7.2X Thursday), which is very good for $176-$182M. The most optimistic number (with a 2.55 like Avengers and Jurassic World) would give $191M as the upper bound. That means it is still possible (although unlikely) that CW edges out AoU for fourth. The lower bound is probably an AoU multiple (2.27) for a $167M OW, which would put it seventh and just ahead of... BvS.

While when I thought the movie was going to do 200 OW I was thinking over all by the end it would do 600-650 USA. Now I am thinking 180 OW and 540-585 by the end. I think it will do right around 1 billion OS maybe slightly more. So WW I am thinking between 1.55-1.65 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

It's already at $366m and Saturday and Sunday WW haven't even happened yet and WOM has been arguably the best out of all the MCU.

yeah 366 plus sat and sunday should be around 105m. So that is 451m right there and then you have what ever china and the rest of the OS does and does the 366 right now include what china has done so far?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Unless something crazy happens, this film will easily clear a billion, and should settle in the top 10 WW charts. The OS numbers look that good. But of course it was a bit over the top to expect it to be Star Wars, JW or even the Avengers domestically.

 

[TheVileOne]

Pretty much no chance of eclipsing $200 million opening weekend. But that is about a lot bigger than opening weekend for The Winter Soldier.

This film was never going to be bigger than Force Awakens. That was a huge generational event.

The question is, does it top Iron Man 3 or Age of Ultron?